Wind Chill Advisory Remains in Effect, Snow chances Arrive over the Weekend

Dangerous Chills:

BRRRR! This Arctic surge is in full swing as the Stateline is waking to single-digit temperatures dangerous wind chills this morning. For some, wind chills will be less tolerable than others. 

That is why the National Weather Service has placed Green County up in Southern Wisconsin, along with Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside Counties in Northern Illinois under a Wind Chill Advisory until 12PM today. Wind chills early on, especially in the areas under the advisory, will range between -15° to 25°, allowing frostbite to occur within 30-minutes if proper precautions aren't taken.

Bitterly Cold, but Dry:

With high pressure close by, sunshine is expected to dominate our skies once again. However, winds will continue to be out of a northwesterly to northerly direction, allowing high temperatures to top out in the lower teens. 

Comparing that to our average numbers, this lands roughly 15° to 20° below average. With less of a wind today, wind chills will climb towards the 0-degree mark, but should remain below-zero throughout the entirety of the day.The high pressure system mentioned previously is shown moving over the region by tomorrow afternoon, allowing sunny skies to return for Friday. A southwest shift in our winds will help pull "slightly warmer" air into the region, pushing our highs into the low 20s.

Few Systems to Watch:

As we enter the weekend, our focus will shift from the frigid Arctic cold to the "carousel" of light snow chances that are on the horizon. The first shot comes in the form of a cold front that looks to slide through the area late Saturday. 

Guidance continues to show a band of flurries and light snow moving in ahead of the front, resulting in minor accumulations. Quick to follow are a pair of Alberta clipper system, one moving in early in the day on Sunday, then again on Monday. Of the two systems, forecast models showcase Monday's system being the more potent of the two. As far as accumulations are concerned, we are still too far out in the forecasting process to formally put out numbers. However, it'll be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast over the next few days. 

Dangerous wind chills possible early Thursday morning

 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY has been issued for Green County in southwest Wisconsin, as well as for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties in northwest Illinois beginning Wednesday evening and lasting through Thursday morning.

Already wind chills across northwest Illinois have fallen down to -15 degrees thanks to a brisk northwest wind.  Those chills are expected to drop even further as temperatures fall through the evening, settling on

either side of zero degrees by Thursday morning.

Wind chills as low as -20 degrees are possible in some locations Thursday morning, meaning frostbite can occur on exposed skin within just 30 minutes.  So please make sure you're taking the necessary precautions to protect yourself in the morning.  As high pressure moves closer to the area during the day, the winds will become a little more light, especially towards Thursday evening.

Pack Those Layers! Temperatures Tumble into the Second Half of the Work Week

Tumbling Temperatures:

A good amount of afternoon sun and a gusty south-southwesterly wind allowed highs on Wednesday to peak in the upper 30s and low 40s. Officially, Rockford's high came to 41°, marking the fourth time since the beginning of the new year where we've had a high at or above 40-degrees. But as the saying goes, "what goes up must come down". 

Around the midnight hour last night, a strong Arctic cold front swept through the region, allowing our next Arctic surge to commence. Temperatures early Wednesday have been tumbling into the teens, with wind chills landing either in the single-digits or below-zero.

Bitterly Cold Stretch:

For the kids that are heading to school this morning, make sure they are dressed in multiple layers. If possible, keep them in the car where it's warm so they are not standing in the cold. As for yourselves, also bundle up! 

As this cold Arctic air continues to filter in, temps and wind chills don't look to improve as we head into the afternoon. In fact, today's gusty northwesterly wind will either keep temperatures steady in the teens, or gradually fall into the evening hours. At times, winds could peak at 25-30 mph, allowing wind chills to also remain below zero.  The worst of this Arctic air-mass arrives overnight Wednesday as a strong area of high pressure inches closer from the Upper Midwest.

With more dry air in our atmosphere, skies will clear somewhat this evening, leaving us with a mostly clear sky overnight. This will allow temperatures to fall on either side of the zero-degree mark by Thursday morning, with wind chills landing well below-zero. Same ordeal as for those heading out this morning, limit time outdoors and be sure to dress in multiple layers. 

Guidance continues to show a dry, but cold weather pattern sticking around into Friday, with our next system slated to arrive by late Saturday. The associated cold front looks to bring a band of flurries and light snow to the region, so keep that in mind if you have any plans. It seems that we enter a somewhat more active pattern as we head into next week as forecast models show a few more weak disturbances tracking into or around the area. As far as our temperatures are concerned, it looks like we remain cooler-than-average towards the end of January. 

Temperatures tumble following Tuesday's warmth

 

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon warmed into the upper 30s and low 40s, reaching 41 degrees in Rockford.  That's the fourth time this month the high temperature had reached 40 degrees, or higher.  Tomorrow (Wednesday) will feel anything but warm as temperatures quickly tumble through the morning and afternoon following a powerful cold front Tuesday night.

South winds will continue Tuesday evening holding temperatures in the 30s through at least midnight.  After midnight a strong cold front move through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, causing temperatures to quickly fall through Wednesday morning.  Those temperatures will drop into the mid teens just before sunrise, settling into the low teens by the afternoon.

A strong pressure gradient between high pressure moving into the northern Plains and the low departing over the eastern Great Lakes will cause northwest winds to gust near 30 mph at times Wednesday afternoon.  Along with the tumbling temperatures, wind chills will also come crashing down Wednesday morning, falling below zero and dropping even further by the afternoon.  Wind chills Thursday morning could fall as low as -20 degrees in some locations as a breeze continues from the northwest.  By Thursday afternoon high pressure will be moving closer to the Stateline causing winds to become light before shifting around to the south late Thursday night.  Highs on Thursday will remain in the low to mid teens, despite the sunshine for most of the day.

Temperatures on Friday will remain below average but should rise close to 20 degrees (if not low 20s) as winds increase slightly from the southwest.  Another cold front moving across the Great Lakes Saturday will bring a chance for a few light snow showers towards the afternoon and evening.  Highs Sunday will briefly rebound into the mid 20s.

Mild Tuesday, Next Surge of Arctic Cold Air to Follow

From Chilly to Mild:

With today being "National Gourmet Coffee Day", that hot cup of Joe will definitely come in handy this morning. Under a partly to mostly cloudy sky, temperatures are sitting in the low to mid 20s, with wind chill values registering in the teens. Along with that hot cup of Joe, be sure to have a few extra layers on before you step out the door. 

Thankfully, this morning's chilly start doesn't tell the tale for the rest of our Tuesday. Despite a mostly cloudy sky, an organized wind out of the south-southwest will help our temperatures soar in the mid to upper 30s, a mere 5° to 10° warmer than Monday. Now, enjoy the mild air while you can because as soon as it arrives, a strong cold passing through early tonight will snatch it away.

Next Arctic Snap:

Once the front is fully through, winds will immediately change to the northwest, allowing our next surge of Arctic air to take place. Wednesday's high temperature will more than likely be observed shortly after midnight, with temperatures remaining steady or gradually falling as the day progresses. Winds remain strong, peaking at 25-30 mph at times. This will keep wind chills below zero for the entirety of the day.

The coldest air with this next Arctic surge looks to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning as an Arctic area of high pressure inches closer. This will allow for a mostly clear sky overnight, placing temperatures near or below the 0° mark. Wind chills will also be at their lowest during this time frame, landing in the range of -10° to -20°. 

To be safe from this upcoming dangerously cold air, be sure to limit time outdoors, and dress in multiple layers. Unlike the last few cold Arctic snaps, this one is likely going to stick around longer than 2 days, lasting into Friday. Forecast models show this high pressure system sliding overhead Friday, with highs landing in the upper teens. We somewhat warm back closer to normal by Saturday ahead of our next cold front.

Brief warm-up Tuesday followed by another Arctic surge

 

Temperatures Monday afternoon warmed into the upper 20s and low 30s, despite the cloudy start and at times brisk northwest wind.  Skies were quick to clear towards late afternoon, with mostly clear skies expected through much of Monday evening.  Temperatures Monday night will dip into the mid teens before holding steady, or even rising slightly, by Tuesday morning.

Another quick moving, and strong, clipper system will dive southeast from western Canada Tuesday morning.  The current track of the low takes it across the Plains and Midwest, and into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday evening.  A draw of warm air following the systems' warm front will bring temperatures into the mid to upper 30s Tuesday afternoon, but it will also come with a rather blustery south wind.  Winds at first will be from the southeast, shifting to the southwest behind the front Tuesday afternoon.  This will likely keep a little chill in the air during the afternoon.

A strong cold front will follow the passage of the low late Tuesday night, quickly bringing temperatures down into the teens Wednesday morning, and even further by Wednesday afternoon.  The source for the cold mid to late week originates all the way up north in Canada, where temperatures Monday afternoon were between -20 to -30 degrees, for highs!

That cold air mass does moderate some as it moves

south mid-week, but temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will struggle to make it much above the low teens, and highs on Friday will only come close to 20 degrees.  Overnight lows will also fall on either side of zero degrees Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Wind chills will drop back below zero Wednesday morning and remain below zero through at least Friday morning, if not Friday afternoon.  We'll get a little bump in temperatures by the start of the weekend but another quick moving system, followed by yet another cold front Sunday, will drop temperatures back into the teens and low 20s for the start of next week.

Seasonable MLK Day, Temps plummet behind Tuesday's Strong Cold Front

Tranquil Start:

After experiencing a few light snow chances over the weekend, our weather pattern turns more tranquil for the work week ahead. Temperatures start off mild, with another round of cold Arctic air filtering in behind a midweek frontal passage. 

The Martin Luther King Jr. holiday begins on cloudy note, with sunshine mixing through during the afternoon. High temperatures look to up seasonable, close to the 30-degree mark. However, a noticeably organized northwest wind will keep wind chills in the teens. Skies will be quick to cloud over overnight as our next weak disturbance and cold front approach from the northwest. 

Tuesday's Cold Front:

The cold front looks to hold off until Tuesday evening, with temperatures ahead of it surging into the mid to upper 30s. Behind Tuesday's frontal passage, winds will immediately turn to the northwest, allowing another rush of disrespectfully cold Arctic air to take place. Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the day on Wednesday, with lows sitting near or below the 0-degree mark by sunrise Thursday morning.

Long Range Outlook: 

With an Arctic area of high pressure sitting overhead on Thursday, highs will struggle to make it out of the single-digits. Overnight lows will once again be teetering around the 0-degree mark come Friday morning. 

During this very cold stretch however, snow chances remain very low. In fact, the only two chances this week will be with the cold front Tuesday evening and then again with another disturbance on Saturday. A glance at the latest long-range outlooks provided by the Climate Prediction Center showcase cooler-than-average temperatures as we approach the end of January.