Friday Flurries Give Way to a Weekend "Warm-Up"

Long Snowy Stretch:

🙌 Happy Friday folks!🙌 Before we jump into the forecast, I wanted to share a little Rockford weather history with you. Let's take a trip back to February 2018 where northern Illinois was subjected to a snowy weather pattern that seemed to have no end in sight. Between February 3rd-11th, the Rockford Airport picked up a whopping 16.1" of snow. 

What's even more mind-blowing about this is that we picked up more snow during that 9-day period than we have this entire season (12.5" since December 1st). That is still to this day the record for most consecutive days with measurable snowfall for the Rockford area. Bringing you back to the present time, while it doesn't look like we have a weather pattern even close to that in the forecast, there will be a chance or two for the Stateline to see some snow.

Few Friday Flurries:

With an area of high pressure in place early on, Friday begins with mixed sunshine. However, clouds will be quick to increase into mid-day as our next disturbance slides to our north. 

Guidance brings in enough moisture for a few flurries to pop-up late this afternoon, with chances stretching into the early hours of tonight. Thankfully, our late-day chances shouldn't bring any issues for the drive home. Still, we have plenty of cold air in our atmosphere. This will limit our afternoon highs to the upper teens for most, with a spot or two hitting the 20-degree mark. Skies slowly clear out overnight, bringing a sunny but cold start to the weekend.

Weekend Warm-Up:

From the single-digits, highs are expected to climb back to the low 20s by Saturday afternoon, under partly sunny skies. Thanks to a tightening pressure gradient at the surface, you'll notice our winds increasing throughout the day. 

By the time dinner reaches the table, winds could gust as high as 25 to 30 mph. This will allow temperatures to only drop into the mid-teens Sunday morning, with highs peaking out in the upper 20s and low 30s by the afternoon. Thanks to this late-weekend system, Sunday features a bit more cloud cover. However, any chance for snow remain low into the beginning of next week.

Clouds and flurries return Friday

 

Temperatures Thursday afternoon struggled to warm beyond the 20 degree mark, only reaching 20 degrees in Rockford.  Brisk northwest winds kept wind chills in the low single digits for much of the afternoon, now falling below zero Thursday evening.  Wind chills will once again drop close to -10 degrees Friday morning, as the low falls to 2 degrees.

High pressure moving in from the northwest helped to clear out some of the cloud cover from the large storm system stretching from the southern Plains all the way into the northeast.  Lake effect snow has also been ongoing, now impacting southeast Wisconsin.  Cloud cover from the lake is also filtering back in, turning skies mostly cloudy east and south of Rockford.

Skies will remain partly cloudy through Friday morning but cloud cover will increase by late

morning as a fast moving clipper system moves in from the northwest.  Winds will briefly shift around to the west Friday ahead of the system, bringing temperatures into the low 20s for the afternoon.  As a cold front nears the Stateline, a few light snow flurries will be possible during the afternoon and early evening.  No accumulations are expected, but a dusting may be possible in some locations - especially east and northeast of Rockford.  As high pressure moves in Friday night skies will begin to clear, leaving us with a mostly clear sky Saturday morning. 

Turning Bitterly Cold Behind Wednesday's Winter Storm, Flurries Possible Friday

Winter Storm Recap:

For some, the shovels were needed. But for others, there was little to no snow that fell due to yesterday's winter storm. As expected, the bigger totals and more significant impacts were confined to the south and east of the Rockford area. 

Snow totals ranged from a measly 0.1" at the Chicago-Rockford International Airport to a whopping 11.0" at the Midway Airport. With yesterday's winter storm now behind us, our attention turns to the bitterly cold air that we have in to start our Thursday. 

Bitterly Cold Thursday:

On the backside of Wednesday's winter storm, an organized north-northwesterly wind pulled in a much colder air-mass into the western Great Lakes. Even with cloudy skies in place, temperatures slowly fell into the upper single-digits and lower teens. With that being said, It'll be important to "dress for the weather" this morning, especially with wind chills sitting below 0°. 

With high pressure sliding closer to the area, the cloudy skies we walk out to this morning will give way to increasing sunshine for the afternoon. Despite the sunshine however, highs will be limited to the upper teens. Comparing that to our average highs for the beginning of February, that sits roughly 10° to 15° below average. Skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight, resulting in another bitterly cold start to our day tomorrow. 

Few Flurries Friday:

Friday kicks off with mixed sunshine, with clouds quickly gathering up late in the day. This is all in response to our next disturbance that slides in from the Upper Midwest. While it doesn't look like this system will have little to no moisture to work with, a few flurries will be possible late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Conditions remain quiet over the upcoming weekend, with temperatures rising into the low 30s by Sunday. 

Sub-zero wind chills return Wednesday evening

The light snow that came down late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning added up to a few inches for some in the southern part of the viewing area, while locations further north ended up with hardly any snow at all.  Rockford received 0.10 inches of snow, barely putting a dent into our nearly ten inch snowfall deficit for the winter season.  While there is plenty of winter to still be had, no big snow producing systems appear to be on the horizon.

Skies will remain cloudy through the night Wednesday as a strong north wind pushes temperatures down through the teens and into the upper single digits.  North winds around 15-20 mph will gust close to 30 mph at times.  This will not only keep temperatures below average through the night, it'll also bring wind chills down below zero degrees Wednesday evening, and as low as -10 degrees by Thursday morning.

High pressure moving in from the northwest will move closer to the Stateline during the day Thursday.  This will help gradually clear out some of the cloud cover during the afternoon and evening.  Temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper teens, with wind chills remaining in the single digits during the afternoon.  Numbers will fall once again Thursday night as winds turn a little more light and skies continue to clear.  Wind chills will drop below zero for Friday morning, but likely won't be as cold with a lighter wind expected. 

Snow Tapers Off This Afternoon, Sunshine Returns for Thursday

Slick AM Commute:

While it's certain that the Stateline won't get in on as much snow as spots to the south, it'll still be enough to bring impacts to the morning commute. Areas along and north of Interstate 88 are seeing light to moderate snow early on. 

Whereas if you live or are traveling to the south and southeast of the interstate, snowfall rates have been much more intense. As of this morning, Dekalb and Lee Counties remain under a Winter Weather Advisory until 6PM this evening. According to the Illinois Department of Transportation, roads in our southern counties have quickly become snow covered & hazardous. Along with the likelihood for slippery travel, visibility is also going to be a big-time issue. Please if you plan to travel this morning, take it slow and give yourself enough following distance. 

When Will the Snow Taper Off:

Guidance continues to keep the snow chances  around into the early-afternoon, with conditions drying out rather quickly during the evening commute. Since we're on the far northern extent of this winter storm, most of the Stateline will only pick up a dusting to about an inch of snow. Places that lie in between Interstate 88 and Interstate 80 will have the potential to pick up 1-3", with totals approaching a foot to a foot and half downstate. Round 2 looks to dodge the Stateline entirely, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky into Thursday.

Sunny, But Cold Thursday:

On the backside of today's winter storm, a strong area of high pressure is expected to inch closer to the Stateline. This will allow any cloud cover that sticks around into the early stages of Thursday to clear out, leaving us with sun-filled skies for the afternoon and early evening. 

With that being said, the sunshine isn't going to help our afternoon temperatures much as there is still plenty of cold air aloft. Highs for most will struggle to make it out of the teens. Even with the cold end of the work week in mind, improvements in the temperature department are expected to arrive this weekend.

Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of the Stateline; Some impacts to the commute Wednesday morning

 
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Lee and DeKalb counties beginning at 8pm Tuesday and lasting through 6pm Wednesday.

Winter Storm Warnings expand across many states stretching from the Plains, all the way up to Michigan and Ohio as a major winter storm moves across the middle of the country.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon warmed into the low 40s ahead of a cold front, reaching 43 degrees in Rockford.  Now that the cold front has passed, temperatures have been falling into the 20s from the northwest.  Rain showers developed ahead of the cold front, but mostly for locations southeast of the immediate area.  On the backside of the light rain, light snow developed but as drier air began to undercut the moisture above there wasn't much of that snow actually reaching the ground just yet.

It's that dry air that will play a role in the sharp snowfall cut-off from south to north by Wednesday afternoon.  Areas under the Winter Storm Warning are set to receive over half a foot of snow, with some locations possibly receiving near a foot of snow!  For the counties under the Winter Weather Advisory the snow will be much less, but still impactful through the morning commute.

As the atmosphere continues to saturate through Tuesday evening we should begin to see some light

snow move in along, and south, of I-88 impacting parts of southern Whiteside, Lee and DeKalb counties between 7pm and 10pm.  The snow will remain confined to locations southeast of Rockford but should begin lifting north Wednesday morning, reaching the state line around sunrise.  The northern edge of the snow will remain light as a steadier snow falls a little further to the south.

Only a dusting up to an inch is possible in areas

along Highway 20 from near Freeport to Belvidere, while locations in southern Wisconsin and over northwest Illinois may not see any snow at all.  The further south you head from Rockford there will likely be some minor snow accumulations.  Areas that stand to receive at least a few inches of snow are most likely in Lee and DeKalb counties where the advisory will go into effect.  Some issues with the morning commute Wednesday are to be expected, regardless of how much snow comes down.  Even though the higher snow amounts will occur further south, with temperatures in the teens the light snow will make it slick in some locations.  It may be a good idea to plan for that during the morning commute.  By Wednesday evening our skies should be mostly dry.

January Recap, Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Issued For Areas South of the Stateline

January Recap:

Congratulations folks! You survived the coldest month of the calendar year. As we look back at the month of January, it was a month filled with Arctic cold snaps and clipper systems. Temperature-wise, January was split down the middle when it comes to above-average and below-average days, totaling 15 for each category. Fortunately, the mild temperatures that rounded out January look to carry on into the start of February, with snow chances quick to follow.

Mild Tuesday:

Ahead of a diving cold front, winds remain out of the southeast, allowing most spots to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s. Temperatures from there are expected to nosedive as another chunk of much colder air is to sweep into the region. 

The front itself as it sweeps through could trigger a couple of sprinkles or light snow showers, mainly in areas along and south of I-88. From there, our attention remains squarely focused on a potent winter storm that looks to set it sights on a large portion of the Midwest and the Great Lakes. 

Midweek Winter Storm:

As of early Tuesday morning, the National Weather Service has placed areas stretching from southeast Colorado to northern Ohio under a Winter Storm Warning. The only counties in our viewing area that are under some type of winter weather alert is Dekalb and Lee Counties. 

This is for the first of two rounds, as these two counties will be under a Winter Weather Advisory from 8PM this evening to 6PM Wednesday. Over the past few days, we've been waiting to see if forecast models would come in with any northward shift in the storm's track. However, has remained consistent, keeping the higher impacts and snowfall totals to the south of the Stateline. With that being said, impacts locally will be quite low. The lone exception may be for those that live along and south of I-88 corridor.

Impacts & Accumulations:

With the Stateline located on the far northern extent of the precipitation shield, there will be a rather sharp cut off in snowfall totals from the northwest to the southeast. Areas to the north of I-88 could receive a dusting to about an inch or two while areas south of the interstate look to get in on some of the higher totals. 

Round of this two part winter storm looks to make a quick exit by mid to late morning Thursday, resulting in the return of sunshine for both Friday and Saturday. Highs for both days will land in the lower 20s, with southwest winds pushing temperatures into the low 30s for Sunday. Other than a slight chance for a few flurries Sunday and Monday, there doesn't seem to be any sign for a significant Stateline snowfall in the near future.