Mix Chances Linger, Significantly Cooling Down for the Weekend

Mix Chances Continue:

A wave of light, wet snow moved in ahead of a lifting warm front overnight. If you were up early enough, you may have seen that it left a nice dusting on your yard and on some roadways. However, with a strong pull for warmer air occurring overnight, the snow made a quick transition to a light mix of rain/drizzle and snow ahead of the morning commute. 

Impacts however for those who plan to travel remain quite low considering that much of what fell overnight has already melted thanks to the rise in temperatures. Guidance shows another round of mixed precipitation passing through the area during the first half of this afternoon. Ahead of the second and stronger cold front, highs today will peak in the upper 30s and low 40s before dropping quickly into tonight.

Temperatures Plunge:

This is all in response to the shift in winds that takes place behind the front, which will help bring a MUCH colder air-mass into the region for the upcoming weekend  Overnight, temperatures are expected to nosedive into the lower teens, with a spot or two landing in the upper single-digits. 

With a ridge of high pressure moving in behind today's pair of cold fronts, sunshine returns for our Saturday. However, with all that bitterly cold air sitting above our heads, temperatures look to ONLY peak out in the upper teens and low 20s. If you punch that into a calculator, that's a 20° to 25° temperature drop from highs this afternoon. A few more clouds will be present during the day on Sunday. Temperature-wise, more of the same as most spots will struggle to make it out of the teens. 

Warming Back Up:

Another ridge of high pressure is expected to slide back into the western Great Lakes by early next week, allowing for a quick climb in temperatures. After a weekend in the 20s, highs head back close to seasonable by Monday, and then well above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures warm as Southwest winds increase

 
Temperatures Thursday afternoon were much cooler than the last couple of days, settling only in the upper 20s throughout the afternoon.  A blustery northwest wind held wind chills in the teens making it feel even cooler.  The wind direction has now shifted around to the south and southwest which will actually allow temperatures to warm through the night, rising to near freezing around Midnight and then upper 30s by daybreak Friday.

The warmth, though, does come with the chance for a quick burst of snow which appears to move in after 9pm/10pm.  The snow won't last too long, only a few hours, but the quick hitting snow may add up to a slushy inch in some locations.  Southwest winds will also increase during that time, gusting 35-40 mph through early Friday.

As the temperature continues to warm overnight any frozen precipitation will begin to transition over to rain before daybreak Friday, with drizzle and light rain showers lasting through the morning.  This means any snow that did accumulate will likely melt away or only remain small, slushy piles by the time you need to head out the door in the morning.

As a second cold front approaches from the north the transition from liquid precipitation to frozen precipitation will occur again, with a mix developing by Noon before changing over to scattered snow showers early to mid afternoon Friday.  While accumulations from that will also remain very minor, reduced visibility with the snow showers through Friday evening may give a little bit of an impact on the roads during that time. 

Northwest winds will increase with the arrival of a much colder air mass Friday afternoon, dropping temperatures from near 40 degrees Friday morning down into the 20s and eventually teens late Friday afternoon and evening.  Wind chills will also fall throughout the day, hoovering right around 30 degrees just before Noon and then teens and single digits by late afternoon.  Northwest winds could gust as high as 35-40 mph during that time. 

The breeze will continue into Friday evening before relaxing some Saturday morning.  Wind chills Saturday morning, however, will have fallen to near -15 degrees in some locations.  High temperatures during the afternoon will only rise to 20 degrees. 

Slightly Cooler Thursday, Gusty Winds & Mix Chances Arrive Overnight

Slightly Cooler Day Ahead:

Wednesday featured another "warm" afternoon as a good chunk of the Stateline managed to peak in the upper 30s and low 40s. In fact, our average high over the last two days has come to 41°, which sits exactly 10° above our average high during the February 8th-9th time-frame.

With that being said, we had another cold front pass through the region yesterday. Unlike the frontal passage that occurred on Tuesday, this one actually had a decent amount of cold air behind it. This will help knock our high temperatures back a few degrees, resulting in a more typical early February day across the area.

The day begins under a mostly cloudy sky, with a few isolated flurries flying through from time to time. Overall, our snow chances look to come to an end before mid-morning, allowing clouds to give way to some sunshine for the afternoon. With a fresh round of cooler air sitting right above our heads, high temperatures today look to only rise into the upper 20s and low 30s. As our next storm system streaks across the Upper Great Plains, clouds look to gather up rather quickly ahead of tonight's round of wintry precipitation.

Next Storm System: 

As we've been hinting at all week long, a quick-moving storm system is scheduled to move across the northern Great Lakes overnight tonight and into the early stages of Friday. Guidance continues to show winds increasing both at the ground-level and just above the surface, allowing for a substantial round of warming to occur. 

Guidance does show our snow chances being best from 9PM to midnight tonight, with accumulations landing between a dusting to an inch. As temperatures gradually warm into Friday morning, we'll see our snow chances transition to rain. The combination of the warming temperatures and rain chances will help quickly melt any snow that accumulates.

Temperatures Plunge:

By the time we're heading into Friday afternoon, conditions will slowly dry out, with highs peaking in the low 40s. If you're keeping score, that's the third 40-degree day this week. 

However, the late-week warm-up will be very short-lived as Friday's cold front will help usher in an even colder air-mass for the beginning of the weekend. Temperatures look to plunge from the low 40s to lower 10s by Saturday morning. Even though we'll see a good amount of sunshine throughout the day, highs Saturday afternoon will struggle to make it out of the teens.

Winds increase as snow returns Thursday night

 

Scattered snow flurries will continue Wednesday evening as a cold front moves through the Midwest. The snow impacts will be minimal, but a quick dusting is possible under some of the steadier snow showers. The chance for flurries will continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with a little more sunshine peeking through for Thursday afternoon. Highs on Thursday will warm into the upper 20s, to right around 30 degrees.

High pressure overhead Thursday will slip to our southeast late in the afternoon, switching winds around to the southwest Thursday night. As low pressure strengthens across the Upper Midwest the southwest wind will increase, gusting to around 35 mph late Thursday night. The increase in wind will actually help temperature rise during that time, coming close to 40 degrees by Friday morning! The wind will also help bring in more moisture ahead of a warm front, giving us a quick burst of snow Thursday evening.

That snow looks to move in from the west between 7pm and 8pm, but should quickly be moving out, or mixing with rain showers after Midnight. Any snow accumulations, at this point, look to be minor and under an inch. Temperatures will actually begin to climb through the night due to the strong southwest wind. This will help switch over any wintry weather to more light rain before sunrise Friday. Those showers won't last too long, moving south by mid-morning. As a cold front comes through Friday afternoon temperatures will fall during that time, dropping all the way down to 10 degrees Friday night and only warming to 20 degrees Saturday afternoon.

Last 7AM Sunrise Until Early October, Flurries Arrive by the Afternoon

Earlier Sunrises:

It feels like it was just yesterday where we we're discussing the winter solstice a.k.a the shortest day of the calendar year. But as we fast forward to this morning, the sunrise you see heading out will be the last sunrise at or after 7PM until October 7th!

Pretty crazy am I right? This morning's sunrise will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, as most are waking up in the upper 20s and low 30s. Comparing that to temperatures Tuesday morning, that's a good 5° to 15° warmer. Although it will be a more pleasant start to the day, be sure to dress warmly. Another upper level disturbance is scheduled to pass to our north, sparking the chance for several flurries and light snow showers by this afternoon.

Wednesday's Flurries:

Guidance shows our first chances moving in late this morning, with the activity remaining scattered in nature. Due to the fact that these flurries and snow showers will be zipping through the area, it'll be hard for any accumulations to occur. 

However, a dusting will be possible in a few spots, which may be just enough to cause a few slick spots. With the lack of cold air behind last night's frontal passage, highs this afternoon will be similar to how Tuesday panned out, with most landing in the upper 30s.While a few flurries may linger into Wednesday night, conditions look to dry out as we carry on into Thursday. Come Thursday afternoon, clouds will eventually give way to a mix of clouds and sun, especially from midday on. 

Late-Week Chance:

We're still keeping an eye on how models trend with the potent clipper system that is scheduled to arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. With low-level temperatures quickly warming up during that time-frame, this event will likely bring us a mixed bag of precipitation. 

Before the transition to rain, an inch or two of slushy snow is possible for areas along and north of highway 20. Once temperatures are warm enough, we'll see that transition to rain by the mid to late morning hours. So, it's safe to say that any snow that manages to accumulate will be quick to melt because of the warmer temps/rain combo. A strong cold front sliding through on Friday will help usher in a much colder air-mass for the upcoming weekend. Highs fall from the low 40s to the upper teens.

Warming Up Quick, Flurry Chances Return Wednesday

Lack of Snow This Season:

We were able to squeeze out a few flurries during the early stages of our Monday, which was enough to leave behind a trace at the Rockford Airport. That just tells the story on how this winter is shaping up when it comes to snowfall accumulations. 

The only month that showed any sort of bravery against our snowfall deficit was January, which fell short of the average mark by 1.1". As it stands, our seasonal snowfall deficit is sitting at 12.5″, and it’s increasingly likely that the deficit will grow over the next couple of days. Especially when you take into account the mild temperatures that are expected for the remainder of the week.

Warming Up Quick:

Despite plenty of afternoon, highs were limited on Monday to the mid 20s thanks to a brisk and organized northwest wind. As yesterday's high pressure system dove to our southeast, winds made the shift to the south and southwest, keeping temperatures steady overnight. 

This wind is expected to become rather gusty by this afternoon, allowing temperatures to quickly climb. Most of our spots look to peak in the upper 30s, with a spot or two either hitting or eclipsing the 40-degree mark. For those doing the math, that is a 10° to 15° jump from highs on Monday. The strongest winds look to occur between 12PM-5PM, with gusts peaking around 25 to 30 mph. Winds will ease up as we approach the evening commute, with a light breeze sticking around overnight. This will bring a slightly warmer start to our day tomorrow, with overnight lows only dropping into the mid to upper 20s.

Wednesday's Flurries:

A weak cold front passing through tonight will quickly shift our winds back to the west northwest, bringing a slight cool-down for Wednesday. Highs are likely to remain in the mid to upper 30s, landing 4° to 8° above average. 

Guidance shows another upper-level disturbance tracking to the north of the area. Although this disturbance is the weaker of the two systems, it will have enough moisture to squeeze out a few flurries or very light snow showers. With that being said, it doesn't look like tomorrow's snow chances will have an impact on the roadways. On the backside of Wednesday's disturbance, the coldest air with this upcoming air-mass looks to settle overhead by Thursday morning.

Ups & Downs Continue:

This will help bring temperatures down even further for Thursday afternoon, with most spots struggling to climb out of the 20s. As a second and stronger disturbance tracks to the north, the pressure at the surface is expected to tighten up, allowing our winds to ramp up into Friday morning. With winds turning to the southwest, this will help temperatures climb back to the upper 30s and low 40s Friday afternoon. Ahead of the associated cold front, guidance continues to suggest that we'll have a shot at a wintry mix. Chances come to an end early Friday night, with temperatures dropping into the teens.

Warmer Week Ahead, Few Late-Week Chances

Much Cooler Monday: 

Yesterday's organized southwest breeze brought a more comfortable day across the area. Officially, the Rockford International Airport peaked at 38-degrees, landing 7-degrees above average. 

This was all ahead of a disturbance that tracked to our north, allowing a cold front to slide through the western Great Lakes late in the evening. Ever since the frontal passage, temperatures have been gradually cooling, with most of our spots landing in the teens this morning. That, along with single-digit wind chills will be enough for you to put on a few extra layers before leaving for school or work. While the start of the work week will be a cold one, the rest of the work week believe it or not features highs at or above the seasonable mark. 

As yesterday's cold front pulls away from the Stateline, this morning's cloud cover will give way to mixed sunshine for the afternoon. Despite the additional sunshine, an organized northwesterly wind will keep our highs in the lower 30s. 

Thankfully, this "cool-down" is expected to only stick around for Monday as winds will again reorganize out of the south/southwest overnight. This will help temperatures gradually climb as we enter the early stages of our Tuesday. Despite the fact that there’s expected to be quite a bit of cloud cover Tuesday, highs will quickly climb out of the 20s and back into the upper 30s. A trend that is expected to stick around into the middle of the work week ahead of our next frontal passage.

Late-Week Chances:

Guidance shows the first of two cold fronts diving down from the Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Behind the frontal passage comes another round of cooler air. 

However, It won’t be as cold as what the Stateline will encounter today, though temperatures will end up closer to the seasonable mark. A potent, fast moving clipper system will bring the Stateline it's best chances for precipitation, mainly during the Thursday and Friday time-frame. Temperatures overnight Thursday look to slowly rise thanks to the lingering southwest wind ahead of our second cold front.

This means that we will be looking at a chance for some light snow at first, with the possibility raining may mix in as temperatures begin to warm early Friday morning. With that being said, we're still a couple of days away from the actual event so aspects of the forecast can change. However, it does look like a strong round of cold air filters in behind Friday's cold front, bringing highs back into the 20s for the weekend.