More Sunshine Ahead, Snow Chances Arrive Late Thursday

More Sunshine Ahead:

Cloud cover kicks off our Wednesday thanks to a weak cold front sliding in from the northwest. Along with this morning's cloud cover does come a very slim chance for a passing flurry or two. 

But it won't be too long before we begin to see the sun emerge. In fact, the only difference between Tuesday's weather and the forecast slated for today is that our surface winds will be out of the northwest. This will not only keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, but it will also keep wind chill values in the 20s throughout the afternoon. With that being said, there will be plenty of opportunities to spend time outdoors. You'll just have to put on a few extra layers of clothing to fight off this afternoon's chill.

Late-Week Snow Potential: 

Clouds are expected to gather overnight Wednesday into Thursday ahead of our next storm system. Before we jump into the finer details, I'd like to say that forecast models really haven't had a good grasp on this storm system in particular over the last 24 to 48 hours. 

For the most part, it looks like we avoid snow chances as a whole during the first half of Thursday. Snow looks to arrive in a scattered fashion by mid to late afternoon, carrying on into the first half of Thursday night. With the fast-moving nature of this storm system, accumulations locally are trending to be minor. If you are working or planning to travel late Thursday, keep an eye out for a few slick spots. Following the departure of Thursday's system, our weather turns more quiet for Friday.

Weekend Temperature Swing:

Winter's "second curveball" this week comes in the form of a big-time cool-down as we head into the first half of the weekend. A short-lived blast of Arctic air will send temperatures tumbling into the single-digits by Saturday morning, with daily highs struggling to climb out of the 20s. 

The keyword however is "short-lived". As the trough that brings us this rush of Arctic air pushes east, the jet stream will retreat to the north by Sunday. This will allow warmer air to filter in from the southern plains and the deep south, bringing highs close to 50-degrees for both Sunday and next Monday!

Light snow returns late week

 

The chance for snow returns to northern Illinois late Thursday evening as another low pressure system moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes with light, accumulating snow possible by Friday morning.

A cold front passing through the Stateline Tuesday night will settle to the south of the area Wednesday morning.  The clear sky for most of the day Tuesday will begin to fill with a little more cloud cover overnight as the cold front nears.  Moisture remains

very limited so outside of a flurry or two, skies are expected to stay mostly cloudy.  As the cold front moves further away from northern Illinois Wednesday we should begin to see a little more sunshine during the afternoon.  Highs on Wednesday reach the mid and upper 30s, similar to high temperatures Tuesday.

Light snow is forecast to develop over the central Plains late Wednesday night and Thursday morning lifting northeast into central and northern Illinois Thursday afternoon.  It may not be a lot of snow locally, but with temperatures in the upper 20s Thursday afternoon and then teens Thursday night, any snow that does fall would more than likely stick to the roads during that time.  This could make roads a little slick for the late Thursday evening and Friday morning commute.  A second cold front will move through the area Friday afternoon with possibly another round of light snow moving in along the cold front.  A colder air mass will settle in behind the front Friday night and Saturday, with highs on Saturday only reaching the mid and upper 20s.  Northwest winds will increase as well, bringing wind chills down well below zero by Saturday morning.

Sunny Tuesday & Wednesday, Snow Chances Late Thursday

Sun-filled Tuesday: 

Ahead of the sunshine that lies ahead, Tuesday does begin with a bit of chill. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures are sitting 10° to 20° cooler compared to the temperatures felt Monday morning. Before you take that first step out the door, it would be wise to put on an extra layer or two. Otherwise, have those sunglasses on hand as well as the Stateline will see wall-to-wall sunshine after the sun rises. 

With ridging moving in both higher up in the atmosphere and at the surface, the sun will be shining from start to finish. That, along with an organized breeze out of the southwest, will help temperatures climb up to the 40-degree mark. Slight warmer than Monday yes. 

But that afternoon breeze will also contribute to wind chill values in the 30s. A cold front sliding into the region from the northwest will bring a bit more cloud cover to the region overnight. Despite the increase in our cloud cover, this cold front won't have much moisture to work with as it passes through. So, we'll likely stay dry into Wednesday morning, with temperatures landing in the low 20s. 

Switching Gears:

Wednesday will be another great late-winter day to be outside as high peak in the upper 30s under a mix of clouds and sunshine. Then our focus turns to our next storm system that's slated to arrive during the evening hours Thursday, continuing through the early stages of Friday. 

As of this morning, forecast models disagreed on the vast nature of the precipitation along with snowfall accumulations. But just know for now that the potential for snow is there and that slippery travel is possible for Friday morning's commute. Once that system is out of our hair, temperatures are expected to plummet into the weekend as an extremely cold air-mass filters in from the Upper Midwest. This will limit highs to the upper 20s and low 30s for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Thankfully, this cool-down is short-lived as we look to bounce back into the 40s by early next week. 

Snow melt continues as temperatures warm

 

Snow totals from Sunday night and Monday morning ranged between one to three inches across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The snow was heavy at times overnight, and then again early Monday morning before tapering off mid-morning.  Main and well traveled roads were more west given the warm temperatures leading up to the snowfall over the weekend, but side roads and lesser traveled roads had quite a bit of slush on them.

Other than a few few flurries early Monday afternoon our skies were quick to dry out with the temperatures holding steady in the low to mid 30s.  We did manage to see a little sunshine poke through the clouds during the afternoon aiding in melting away some of the snow.  The higher sun angle helped too.

On average, the month of March typically receives just under five inches of snow, with April typically receiving around an inch.  Our highest March snow occurred back in 1964 when 22.7 inches fell that year.  The highest month snow total for April was back in 1936 when nine inches of snow fell that month.

Whatever snow is left on the ground Tuesday will continue to melt away as both an increasing southwest wind and warming temperatures return for the afternoon.  Highs are expected to warm into the upper 30s and low 40s Tuesday afternoon, with a southwest breeze around 20 mph.  Cloud cover comes back in for Tuesday night ahead of a cold front that'll pass early Wednesday with a few flurries possible, but no accumulation is expected.  Temperatures on Wednesday, with the sun, will warm back close to 40 degrees during the afternoon.

Slick & Snow-Covered Roads Likely, Sunny Tuesday to Follow

Winter Weather Advisory:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY remains in effect for all of our northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin areas until mid-day. An area of low-pressure sitting over southern Illinois has allowed plenty of moisture to shift northward, bringing snow chances to the region after midnight. At times, snow was falling at .5" to 1" per hour, quickly making road conditions either slick or even snow-covered. Guidance continues to show snow chances lasting into mid-morning so expect a messy and slush-filled commute this morning.

Conditions Quiet Down: 

As this area of low-pressure pulls away from the Stateline, snow will slowly taper off, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky for the afternoon. Overall, most of the Stateline should be looking at a fresh 1"-3" of snow by the conclusion of the event, with a few spots near the Wisconsin/Illinois border near 4". With a northwest breeze lingering, highs will only peak in the low 30s this afternoon. As high pressure begins to slide to our south, skies clear overnight, with winds changing to the southwest by Tuesday morning. Not only will this spell a warmer afternoon, but we trade in today's cloud cover for plenty of sunshine.

Sun-filled Tuesday:

Tomorrow does kick off with a bit of a winter-like chill as temperatures by the morning commute will be sitting in the teens. However, the combination of Tuesday's sunshine and southwest wind breeze will push highs temperatures into the low 40s. 

A nice afternoon to be outside for sure. But you'll more than likely want that heavier jacket with you as wind chills are expected to sit in the 30s. This quiet and seasonable weather pattern will remain with us into Wednesday, with clouds increasing late in the day. This is all in response to a storm system that may bring us another chance at some snow late in the week. 

Late-Week Storm:

Forecast models continue to show another storm system developing and moving into the region late Thursday into Friday, bringing with the a chance for snow showers. More importantly, the associated cold front will help drop our temperatures a good 15-20 degrees below average for Friday and Saturday. This means we’ll have highs likely only in the upper 20s both days, with overnight lows falling into the teens. 

Winter weather returns Sunday night

 
Severe thunderstorms moved through the Midwest Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing with it numerous reported tornadoes in Iowa and many reports of high winds and wind damage across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  

But the weather will quickly change from spring-like to more winter-like as another storm system moves in from the southwest, this time bringing with it the likelihood of accumulating snowfall Monday morning.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will go into effect for most of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin beginning at Midnight and lasting through Noon Monday.  The advisory goes into effect a little earlier for the counties in northwest Illinois. 

The cold front that came through late Saturday night has stalled over central and southern Illinois.  Temperatures Sunday afternoon were nearly 20-25 degrees colder than what they were Saturday afternoon.  Low pressure developing over the southwest Sunday evening will quickly lift to the northeast, bringing with it quite a bit of moisture northward.  Showers, thunderstorms and snow have quickly developed over the central Plains and will continue to move northeast through Missouri, Iowa, southern and central Illinois Sunday night.  Temperatures remaining above freezing through the late evening may initially allow a mix of rain and snow to develop, especially for areas south of Rockford, around 10-11pm.  As temperatures continue to cool through Midnight, it'll be all snow that'll fall throughout the night.

The precipitation will move in from the southwest, moving northeast around 10pm and falling for most of the Stateline around Midnight.  After Midnight, heavier snow may fall for a brief period where snowfall rates could come close to one inch per hour for some.

The snow will be falling through sunrise Monday so expect a messy and slush-filled commute during that time.  Mid-morning the snow becomes a little
more scattered as low pressure pulls further away from the Stateline, with most of the snow coming to an end around Noon Monday.  Northwest winds will be breezy throughout the day holding temperatures in the low to mid 30s Monday afternoon.  

Snow totals are likely to range between 2-4 inches area wide, although there could be a couple spots north and northwest of Rockford that end up on the higher end, possibly closer to 5 inches Monday morning.  A little further south some freezing drizzle may mix in as drier air works in south of the Stateline later tonight and Monday.  This could end up cutting down on the snow totals in those locations, or at least keeping them closer to the lower end of totals, but could also cause things to slicken up a little more with some minor ice accumulation.

Plan for extra time Monday as both visibility and road conditions will more than likely slow you down.  As the snow continues to taper off through the morning, conditions will gradually begin to improve throughout the afternoon.

Winter weather returns following Spring-like weekend

 

Temperatures Thursday afternoon struggled to make it much above the mid and upper 30s thanks to a powerful cold front that came through Wednesday night.  But temperatures leading into the weekend will continue to climb, reaching the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon.

That warmth aided with a strong warm front that'll lift through the region Saturday morning.  South winds behind the front will increase, gusting to around 30-35 mph Saturday evening before shifting to the west Saturday night behind another cold front.  Those wind gusts could come close to 40 mph.

Showers are likely to develop as the warm front moves through early Saturday, but the majority of the precipitation appears to fall to the north and west of the immediate area.  While there may be a few showers that are present around sunrise, most of the morning will stay dry.  Those dry conditions will carry over into the afternoon as a brief ride of high pressure moves overhead.  That ridge formed from a strong storm system that'll be moving into western and central Iowa during the afternoon.

As a cold front sweeps across Iowa Saturday, thunderstorms are likely to develop.  Some of those storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts.  As the cold front moves east last Saturday afternoon and evening, instability will rise a little over the Stateline which could help sustain some of the storm activity after sunset.  Much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin is under a 'marginal risk' for severe weather, which is on the lower end, but something we'll need to pay close attention to as strong wind gusts would be our primary concern.

Once the cold front passes Sunday there won't be an initial push of cold air behind.  Skies will begin to dry out as temperatures rise into the upper 40s during the afternoon.  As the front stalls out across the Ohio Valley Sunday night, another low pressure system will move up from the south and along the cold front.  Rain will begin to lift up from the southwest, moving across southern and central Illinois.  Some of those showers could reach northern Illinois Sunday night.

Winds will then turn more to the north and northeast overnight, into Monday morning.  As this occurs, colder air will be drawn in and could produce some light snow through the morning, as well as during the afternoon.  It's yet to be determined if any of the snow will accumulate here in the Stateline, or bypass us to the south.  But it is a reminder that, after these milder days, we are still in the midst of Winter.