Pattern Remains Somewhat Unsettled Ahead of Next Week's Heat

Few Showers Possible:

This week has featured quite the weather pattern as we've been "flip-flopping" so to speak between sun-filled days and rainy days. Thursday was a glorious day that featured sunshine from start to finish, with highs landing in the upper 70s. 

But with our weather pattern being in "flip-flop" mode, that would mean we switch back to a more unsettled forecast for the end of the work week. Now, it should be stated that forecast models have been trending drier with today's rain chances, displacing most of the action to the west and southwest of the area. So there will be plenty of dry hours today. However, be ready for rain just in case. Especially if you have any plans slated for this afternoon and evening, like Rockford's City Market. Once the sun goes down,any showers or t-storms should dissipate rather quickly. 

Weekend Chances:

Saturday looks to start on a quiet note, with clouds increasing into mid-day. This is all in response to a storm system that quickly swings into the western Great Lakes from the Upper Midwest. 

Guidance shows the possibility for few showers during the afternoon and evening hours, with better chances for rain arriving overnight. The associated cold front is expected to slide through during the morning hours on Sunday, continuing that chance for scattered shower and thunderstorms. Even with our surface winds shifting to the northwest, highs will still manage to climb into the lower 80s.  

Summer Air Returns:

Early next week, a warm front becomes established across central Illinois. Once this frontal boundary is situated to our north, this will open the door for a more summer-like air-mass to filter into the region, resulting in a huge jump in temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. 

Temperatures are likely to reach the low to mid 90s next Tuesday and Wednesday under partly cloudy skies. Along with the rise in heat comes a rise in humidity as dew points are forecast to rise into the lower 70s. This will likely allow the heat index temperature to register at or over 100°, especially Tuesday afternoon. In other words, "AIR you can WEAR". Another cold front will then pass through overnight into Thursday, bringing highs down into the upper 80s for the second half of next week. 

Summer heat returns next week

 

Thursday has been a very comfortable day with sun-filled skies and temperatures rising into the mid and upper 70s. Winds have been a little breezy from the northwest, at times gusting to 25 mph, but those wind speeds will relax some through the evening. Skies will remain mostly clear Thursday evening but cloud cover will return during the overnight as scattered showers are set to return for some Friday afternoon.

Following a few showers for the weekend and near

average temperatures, the summer heat is set to return in full force early next week. A cold front passing through the Great Lakes Sunday will slide to our southwest Monday morning and afternoon. That front will slowly be pulled back north as a warm front sometime during the Monday/Tuesday time frame, but how quickly is still a little murky. There are a few models that pull the front quickly to the north Monday, bringing temperatures near 90 degrees during the afternoon while others hold the front to the south and give us a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. For now, I held on to highs in the low 80s.

By next Tuesday a ridge of high pressure will build across the middle of the country, including the Midwest, bringing a quick return of summer-like heat and humidity to many. Temperatures are likely to reach the low to mid 90s next Tuesday afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The high heat could last into Wednesday, but it'll depend on the timing of a cold front. Right now, it looks like the front will come through later in the day Wednesday with temperatures likely reaching the low 90s once again. What's even more important with the return of the heat will be the heat index temperature. As dew point temperatures are forecast to rise into the 70s (very uncomfortable air mass) the heat index temperature - or feels like temperature - will likely reach over 100 degrees, especially Tuesday afternoon. The cold front passing through mid-week will bring temperatures down from the 90s, but we'll likely remain above average through the end of the week.

Dense Fog Advisory Issued, Sunshine Returns Following Rainy Wednesday

Foggy Morning:

Leftover moisture from yesterday's rainfall has resulted in a round of patchy dense fog for the start of our Thursday. For that, a DENSE FOG ADVISORY is in place for Winnebago, Boone, and McHenry Counties in N. Illinois, as well as Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties in S.Wisconsin until 8am. If planning to travel this morning, use extra caution as visibility could be as low as 1/4 mile at times.

Sunshine Returns:

Once the dense fog lets up, sun-filled skies return to the Stateline thanks to an area of high pressure located to our southwest. Today's sunshine will help temperatures peak closer to seasonable levels, with most in the upper 70s. That, along with comfortable humidity levels will make for a perfect afternoon for outdoor activities. As our next storm system approaches, clouds will increase overnight, with shower chances not too far behind.

Friday's Showers

Scattered showers will be possible, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours. With more cloud cover overhead, temperatures will fall by a few degrees, with highs in the lower 70s. Shower chances linger into the weekend, with highs climbing back into the upper 70s. 

The return of summer-like warmth will be the main headline as we move forward into next week. The combination of a lifting warm front and a strengthening ridge aloft will allow a much warmer air-mass to spread across the Midwest. So far this year, Rockford has observed five 90-degree days. That number is likely to go up with the way the forecast is shaping up for next week!

Rain Likely Today, Tranquil Weather Returns Thursday

Rain Chances Return:

Tuesday featured a lovely break from the early-week rainfall as we saw plenty of sun, with highs peaking in the upper 70s. Beautiful weather if you ask me for those that attended Food Truck Tuesday over at the Sinnissippi Bike Path! However, this break is short-lived as another low-pressure system diving to our south will quickly bring rain chances back to the area for the middle of the week. 

Before you step out the door, make sure to have the rain gear with you. Rain chances look to begin shortly after sunrise, becoming steadier and at times heavier as the morning continues. 

While the potential for severe weather is very low with today's rain chances, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Rainfall totals for most look to end up in the .25"-.75″ range, with 1" for those that do wind up being under the heaviest precipitation. Forecast highs, because of today's cloud cover and rain chances, look to only end up in the upper 60s. It’s not out of the question that we see the sun make an appearance before the day comes to a close. As the storm system pulls away from the region, dry air will begin to filter in, resulting in a decrease in cloud cover early tonight.

Tranquil Thursday: 

High pressure takes control for Thursday, allowing plenty of sunshine throughout the day. Despite a west-northwest wind, highs will be able to land closer to normal in the upper 70s. 

This is a mere 7-10 degrees higher than where our high temperatures will land this afternoon. Similar to the break we experienced on Tuesday, tomorrow's dry weather will be brief as rain chances look to quickly move back in for Friday. However, there is still some uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain will fall. Temperatures going into the weekend look to increase, with the potential for 90s moving back in by next Tuesday!

Rain returns Wednesday

 

Following a nice break from the rain Tuesday afternoon and evening, showers and isolated thunderstorms are set to return to the Stateline Wednesday morning and afternoon. High pressure Tuesday helped to keep our skies mostly clear and dry, however, a few very isolated showers popped up in south-central Wisconsin. The showers didn't last long and were done by 6pm, leaving skies mostly clear for much of Tuesday evening. After temperatures reached the mid and upper 70s during the afternoon, temperatures have been slow to fall Tuesday evening.

Cloud cover will be on the increase Tuesday night ahead of another storm system that'll pass through the Midwest Wednesday afternoon. While the main surface low will pass well south of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, a rather strong upper level low will move almost due east from Iowa into Illinois. Increasing moisture once again will allow rain to spread in from west to east by mid-morning, turning widespread through early afternoon. Even though instability remains limited there may be a few embedded thunderstorms within some of the heavier showers, but no severe weather is expected.

Of bigger concern will be the additional heavy rain that is possible during the day, adding on to the already high rain totals that some received Monday afternoon and evening. The good news with this round of rain is that it should remain fairly progressive. Rainfall totals will remain around a few tenths of an inch up to three quarters of an inch, although a few higher rainfall totals are possible. Skies will then begin to clear with another high pressure system moving in from the northwest Thursday morning. Temperatures Thursday will warm into the mid and upper 70s.

Monday evening storms slowly come to an end

 

Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for southern and southeast Lee County earlier Monday evening as storms capable of half dollar and ping pong sized hail developed near Amboy, IL.  The hail threat was quick to decrease, turning into more of a wind threat as the storm moved into southeast Lee County.

Additional thunderstorms have developed, but have not turned severe.  However, a strong storm moving across northern DeKalb County did had some pea sized hail, VERY heavy rainfall and gusty winds with it earlier.  These storms are slowly moving to the east, turning slightly southeast, as of 7:15pm.  Another storm entering into western Lee County will also pose a threat for extremely heavy rainfall.

These storms developed ahead of a cold front that is slowly shifting south through northern Illinois.  The breaks in the cloud cover from earlier in the day allowed a little more instability to develop, producing a few of the stronger storms.  As the cold front continues to pass Monday evening the storm coverage will continue to decrease.  Most of the rain should be wrapping up between 9pm-11pm.  

Rain and thunder to kick start the work week

 

Light rain fell mostly north of the Stateline early Sunday morning with the majority of the afternoon remaining dry and warm. High temperatures soared through the 70s, reaching the low to mid 80s in a few locations. Rockford's high temperature officially reached 85 degrees.

The upcoming work week doesn't appear to be as warm as more of a west to east, or zonal flow, in the jet stream develops. This will leave temperatures most days falling just a few degrees below the average (upper 70s). Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also likely to start the week, increasing from west to east as early as Sunday night.

A weak area of low pressure remains draped across central Iowa Sunday evening. This low will slowly shift to the northeast through the night and into Monday morning. As it does, it'll help keep the warm front north of the Stateline Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning, but are expected to decrease in coverage during the afternoon. Highs Monday won't be quite as warm thanks to the increasing cloud cover and rain showers. Temperatures are only expected to reach the mid 70s.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are again possible as a cold front passes Monday evening, but overall shower coverage is expected to remain low. High pressure quickly fills in behind Monday night and Tuesday, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and temperatures rising back into the mid/upper 70s Tuesday afternoon.