Temperatures Tuesday afternoon were quite comfortable, warming into the low to mid 80s area wide. Rockford officially reached 85 degrees. West/northwest winds were gusty throughout the afternoon, at times nearing 25 mph, but will continue to decrease throughout the evening. Skies also turned partly cloudy by early afternoon, but are slowly beginning to clear Tuesday evening.

Low pressure in northern Wisconsin has been responsible for showers and thunderstorms throughout much of Tuesday afternoon and evening. And while there has been a slow shift in the rain to the south, the showers have weakened as they move closer to southern Wisconsin. This is likely due to the drier air across northern Illinois. But as the low itself moves south Tuesday night we will gradually see cloud cover increase through the overnight, enough to turn skies partly to mostly cloudy. Even though moisture will be limited, an isolated sprinkle or shower will be possible just before sunrise Wednesday, although coverage will remain very light.

Skies stay partly cloudy during the afternoon Wednesday following a backdoor cold front (front that moves in from the north/northeast). Winds will turn more to the northeast Wednesday afternoon as temperatures rise again into the low to mid 80s. We will see similar conditions during the afternoon Wednesday as we did Tuesday, but there will be a slight increase in instability and moisture which could lead to a very isolated afternoon/evening shower. Skies will clear again Wednesday night with overnight lows dipping into the mid 50s early Thursday. 

Sunshine, Lower Humidity Follows Monday's Cold Front

Cooling Down A Bit:

Once the first round of showers and thunderstorms came to a close, Monday turned out to be a warm, and humid day with highs in the upper 80s. 

Thankfully, the cold front that came through during the late afternoon and evening hours marked the beginning of a more comfortable weather pattern. One that has the intention of sticking around into the end of the work week. 

Tuesday kicks off with plenty of sunshine, with a few clouds building in during the afternoon. The cooler northwesterly wind left behind by yesterday's frontal passage will bring our high temperatures and humidity levels down to much more comfortable levels. 

Winds will ease up as we head into tonight, but remain out of the northwest. Under a mostly clear skies, lows look to end up in the lower 60s. 

Nothing But Sunshine

Guidance then shows a secondary cold front working it's way in from the north early Wednesday morning. Winds as of a result will tilt more to the north, which will shave off a few more degrees from our afternoon highs. 

If you think today and tomorrow sound fantastic, just wait till Thursday. High pressure settles in behind Wednesday's cold front, allowing sun-filled skies from start to finish.

July's Full Moon: 

One important event occurring during this lovely stretch of weather is July's full moon! Officially, the moon will be full Wednesday at 1:38 PM CDT, and will be at its biggest and brightest when it rises above the horizon Wednesday night. 

Locally, viewing conditions will be excellent as the area of high pressure mentioned earlier in this post will keep our skies clear. Fun fact! This month's edition of the full moon is known as the full "Buck Moon" as bucks are in the process of growing their antlers at this point in the year. It is also known as the full "Thunder Moon" due to high occurrence of thunderstorm activity during the month.

Early-Week Storms, Little Rain Chances to Follow

Early Week Storms?:

Similar to how the beginning of last week panned out, this week kicks off with an opportunity for a few strong to severe storms. Thankfully, they won't be as widespread and as intense as the multiple rounds that came through on the 4th of July. Now, today's threat does look to come in two rounds. The first being ahead of the cold front in which we may see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms into the mid-to late morning hours. 

This all depends on if the thunderstorm cluster that is sliding into central Iowa this morning can sustain itself on approach. The second opportunity comes with a slightly higher risk for a few stronger storms as the cold front passes through this afternoon. 

For both rounds, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the Stateline, with the exception of extreme southwest Dekalb County, under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. 

Again, thunderstorm coverage is not expected to be widespread, but more scattered across the local area. Storm coverage may actually increase once the cold front passes with storms impacting areas to the south of Chicago and northwest Indiana.  Strong winds and hail would be the primary concern if severe storms were to develop. 

Make sure you remain 'weather aware' during the day Monday with the risk for severe weather. We'll continue to keep you updated throughout the day.  

Little Rain Chances to Follow:

Behind today's cold front, a slightly cooler, and drier air-mass settles in. This brings a mixture of clouds and sun for Tuesday, with highs back near seasonable-levels in the lower 80s. 

Another cold front sliding through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will result in the only below-average day of the next seven. Conditions remain dry into the middle of the week, and humidity levels remain comfortable. Thursday looks beautiful with wall-to-wall sunshine featured from start to finish. Highs will once again peak in the lower 80s before climbing into the weekend.

Storm threat returns Monday afternoon

 

Skies will continue to clear Sunday night following a few showers and isolated thunderstorms that moved through earlier in the evening. Nothing widespread, but the showers that moved through did produce a few brief downpours and frequent lightning. Temperatures will only drop into the mid to upper 60s as southwest winds increase on the heals of a strengthening low level jet. Not only will this keep our temperatures on the warmer side, it'll also help to pull in more moisture through Monday morning as dew point temperatures near 70 degrees. We may not see a big rise in the actual air temperature, but the humidity will increase significantly. This could eventually lead to a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

A cold front approaching from the northwest Monday will pass through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, we may see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mid-morning from a weakening storm complex currently developing over the central Plains Sunday evening. A slightly higher risk for a few stronger storms exists across west-central Illinois with this complex. It's entirely possible that the storm complex weakens enough that all we see Monday morning is an increase in cloud cover locally. If that's the case, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s/low 90s and that could push the heat index close to 100 degrees for some.

As the cold front nears during the afternoon instability will gradually build. There is a risk for a few strong/severe storms, especially south of Rockford, during that time. Thunderstorm coverage is not expected to be widespread, but more scattered across the local area. Storm coverage may actually increase once the cold front passes with storms impacting areas south of Chicago and northwest Indiana. Strong winds and hail would be the primary concern if severe storms develop. Make sure you remain 'weather aware' during the day Monday with the risk for severe weather. We'll continue to keep you updated throughout the day.   

Isolated showers/storms moving in Sunday evening

 

The majority of Sunday has been dry with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s, but for some a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through Sunday evening. These showers are forming along the leading edge of warmer air aloft, as well as with an upper level disturbance.

While most of this activity has weakened as it has moved south, we will see isolated showers and thunderstorms move across south-central Wisconsin and far northern Illinois over the next hour. Areas south of Rockford likely won't see much, if any, activity through the evening. Brief downpours, along with lightning, are our greatest threats with the storms. Once this wave passes, conditions will remain quiet for most of Sunday evening/night. The continued push of warmer air overnight will help keep temperatures in the mid to upper 60s through the start of Monday.

Showers Taper Off by Mid-Day, Sun-Filled Weekend Ahead

Morning Showers:

It's been a very wet week for the Stateline as each of the last 4 days have come in with a measurable amount of rainfall. While this stretch does carry on into our Friday, the passage of a cold front this morning will mark the beginning of drier times. If you plan to leave during the morning hours, make sure to grab your umbrella. 

Showers are expected to continue in a scattered fashion before tapering off late this morning into the early afternoon. I think at most we can expected up to a tenth to two tenths of an inch. 

The dry air that filters in behind this morning's front will allow cloud cover to gradually clear throughout the afternoon, with highs landing in the lower 80s. Dew points will also begin to steadily drop. Guidance keeps skies mostly clear overnight tonight, with lows dropping into the 60s.  

Weekend-Cast:

No issues weather-wise for the upcoming weekend as an area of high pressure slides into the Great Lakes. Saturday is looking like a perfect 10 out of 10 on the Joey scale as the forecast calls for plenty of sun, low humidity, and highs in the lower 80s. 

We’ll warm up just a tad on Sunday as winds look to tilt more to the south and southwest. That warmer wind, along with the continued sunshine will bring temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Although Sunday calls for warmer temps, humidity levels remain in check. We continue to warm into the start of next week ahead of our next cold front, with highs peaking near the 90-degree mark. Highs following that cold frontal passage fall back into the lower 80s Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Muggy conditions continue as scattered showers develop

 

Temperatures Thursday afternoon were similar to Wednesday, but the humidity has been a bit higher thanks to dew point temperatures reaching the low 70s area wide. This has pushed the heat index into the low 90s in a couple locations.

The muggy conditions will remain not only through the evening Thursday, but also into Friday until drier air filters in Friday evening. This will help push dew point temperatures from the 70s, down into the 50s Friday night. Dew points will then remain on either side of 60 degrees through the weekend.

Scattered showers have developed in response to a remnant low pressure system moving through west-central and central Illinois. The rain and isolated thunder will continue to develop, lifting from south to north through the evening. Severe weather is not expected, but heavier rainfall will be likely. Along with the heavier rain, there is also the possibility that some of the showers could produce brief funnel clouds. The rain and isolated thunder developing in Iowa has the highest chance for these funnels to occur, but showers southwest of Rockford may also see a brief funnel or two. These showers are forming along an old boundary, a cold front, that has settled south and southwest of Rockford. The threat for those will last through sunset.