Cooler Sunday, Dry for Labor Day

Clouds Stick Around:

It was an active start to the holiday weekend as a few slow-moving hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms moved through. Fortunately, atmospheric parameters were very low, resulting in none of these storms reaching severe limits. 

With Saturday's cold front now sitting to our southeast, tranquil conditions settle in for the rest of the holiday weekend. However, Sunday may still feature a bit of cloud cover. 

This is mainly because of the wind shift that occurred behind yesterday's frontal passage. With a northeast wind in place, this will allow moisture to be pulled off of Lake Michigan, resulting in the development of low-level clouds. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky, with high temperatures for most landing in the low to mid 70s. 

Some of these clouds do look to stick around for the overnight hours, with lows falling into the lower 60s. Guidance then shows a ridge of high pressure over the western United States spreading eastward into early next week. This will bring a better opportunity for the Stateline to see a good amount of sunshine not only for the Labor Day holiday, but also for the days that follow. 

Labor Day Forecast:

While the northeast draw mentioned above will still be in place on Labor Day, it won't be as strong. So, the amount of moisture in the low-levels won't be as high as it will be today. 

This will result in a partly sunny sky, with highs in the upper 70s, which is pretty typical for the very early portions of September. If we don't make the low 80s on Tuesday, low 80s will sure be in the works for the middle of the work week. Winds then turn more to the south late in the week, resulting in a slow warm up. This is all ahead of our next cold front which looks to slide through sometime between Friday night and Saturday morning!

Latest on the Tropics: Tropical Storm Earl Forms

T.S Earl Forms:

Remember that cluster of showers and storms we we're talking about yesterday that was located east of the Lesser Antilles? Well the National Hurricane Center found enough evidence overnight to bring it up to tropical storm status, resulting in the 5th named storm of the 2022 hurricane season. 

As of Saturday morning, tropical storm Earl is a 40 mph storm, moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Over the next few days, forecast models continue to bring well it to the east of the Bahama Islands before making a quick turn to the northeast. From what it looks like at the moment, T.S Earl doesn't look to threaten the U.S coastline. But, it may take a run at hurricane status while it meanders and spins over the Atlantic Ocean.

Latest on Danielle:

Also meandering over the Atlantic is Danielle. Yesterday, Danielle strengthened into a category 1 storm, becoming the first hurricane of the season. However, with it not moving much over the last 24 hours, it seems to have used up a good chunk of the heat supplied by the ocean waters. 

This has resulted in a weakening trend, bringing it back down to tropical storm status. The latest advisory does have it's maximum winds sitting at 70 mph with it strengthening back into a category 1 sometime Sunday. Like Earl, Danielle also doesn't look to pose any threat to the U.S or any land mass for that matter. Whenever we see the next tropical wave develop into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Fiona! 

Storm Chances This Afternoon, Tranquil for Labor Day

Saturday's Cold Front:

This year's edition of Labor Day weekend kicks off with a dry morning, with the Stateline waking up to a mix of clouds and sunshine.

However, with a cold front sitting to our north and west, it will also be a warm and somewhat muggy morning. Forecast models bring in said cold front shortly after midday, resulting in the development of a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. 

The overall coverage of this afternoon's activity will be scattered, meaning that not everyone is going to see rain. With that said, it’d still be a great idea to have an umbrella with you if you have any outdoor plans to celebrate the Labor Day holiday. Thankfully, severe weather is not in the works with this afternoon's thunderstorm chances. 

However, for those that do wind up underneath a thunderstorm, you could be subjected to a heavy downpour or two. Rainfall totals for most look to end up in the .10"-.30" range when it's all said and done. Showers and storms should quickly dissipate once the sun sets, with conditions becoming more tranquil overnight. Temperatures look to end up a little bit cooler by sunrise Sunday, with most falling into the lower 60s.

Labor Day Holiday:

Forecast models do keep a good amount of cloud cover around into Sunday morning. But as an area of high pressure settles in over the northern Great Lakes, skies will slowly clear into the afternoon, resulting in a partly cloudy sky. 

Winds behind today's frontal passage turn to the northeast, bringing temperatures back down into the upper 70s for Sunday afternoon. More of the same can be expected for the Labor Day holiday itself, just minus a few clouds. With a northeast wind still in place, high temperatures will once again struggle to climb out of the 70s. Along with the cooler temperatures does come a drop in humidity as dew points Monday look to sit in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Tropics Heating Up, T.S Danielle Slowly Strengthening

Danielle Strengthening:

For the first time since 1997, the month of August did not feature a named storm in the Atlantic. However, the tropics were quick to heat up once we jumped into September as a wave over the northern Atlantic Ocean was able to close off it's low-level circulation, resulting in Tropical Storm Danielle. As of early Friday morning, Danielle is a high-end tropical storm, with sustained winds up to 70 mph. While Danielle is forecast to remain well away from U.S soil, it's expected to become the first hurricane of the 2022 season by later today. 

Comparing Seasons:

With that being said, Danielle is only the 4th named storm of the 2022 season. The lack of activity this summer was mainly due to the vast amount of Saharan dust that was displaced over the Atlantic basin. But it's mind-boggling to process the difference in intensity and pace of this year's hurricane season compared to the historic season we had last year. For instance, by September 2nd last year, we were well beyond the D-named storm, sitting at 12 named storms. On average, tomorrow marks the date in which we see the formation of our 7th named storm. So, it's safe to say that we have some catching up to do.

Next 5 Days:

Aside from Danielle, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two other tropical waves for possible development over the next 5 days. The cluster of showers and storms that's located to the east of the Lesser Antilles has the best odds for tropical formation (70% chance). 

It's been a slow strengthening process for this system as it's been fighting quite a bit of dry air and also decent wind shear (change in wind speed or direction with height) during it's westward journey. Hence why it hasn't been named yet. However, if it were to become a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Earl, followed by Fiona! 

Warm and Muggy Friday, Few Storms Possible Saturday

Warm End to the Week:

It was a warm and muggy start to the month of September as highs across the Stateline peaked in the low to mid 80s. Officially, the Rockford Airport reached 85°, which is identical to the high temperature that rounded out the month of August. With our next cold front sitting to our northwest, yesterday's warm surface flow is expected to carry on not only into our Friday, but also into the beginning of the Labor Day weekend.

A weak disturbance sliding to our south will bring a mostly cloudy start to our Friday. But as the morning hours progress, cloud cover will slowly give way to more sunshine for the afternoon. That, along with today's southerly breeze will bring high temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s. 

Expect humidity levels to be a touch above what they were Thursday afternoon. Forecast models have really backed off the chance for a shower or two during the evening hours. So, it does look like high school football games scheduled for this evening will not be affected by the weather. From there, skies are expected to remain partly cloudy overnight, with lows falling into the upper 60s.

Labor Day Weekend:

Along with the warm start, Saturday begins on a dry note with a mix of clouds and sun. It's not until the afternoon where a southward-sinking cold front will bring the potential for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Now, we're not expecting a washout, meaning not everyone will get in on Saturday's rain chances. But, it's definitely something to keep an eye on if you have any holiday plans Saturday afternoon. And thankfully severe weather is NOT expected. While this activity may linger into Saturday night, the atmosphere looks to dry out by Sunday as this frontal boundary pulls away. Northeasterly flow behind the front will help keep highs in the lower 80s into early next week.

A look back at Meteorological Summer

 

Even though it is still summer, the start to Meteorological Fall, and September, was a warm one as temperatures Thursday afternoon warmed into the middle 80s. Meteorological Fall is the three month period of September, October and November and used for climatological record keeping. Astronomical Fall begins September 22nd.

Meteorological Summer is the three month period of June, July and August and was a pretty typical Summer for Rockford, at least for temperatures. The average high temperature over the three month period was 83.6 degrees, roughly a degree and a half above average. The average low was 61.3 degrees, just 0.4 degrees below average.

August rainfall really pushed the summer precipitation totals up, with the month receiving almost nine inches of rain, making it the 7th wettest August on record for Rockford. This made up for the drier start to the summer season as June's rainfall ended a little over three inches below the monthly normal. Just over 16.50 inches of rain fell during Meteorological Summer, which was 3.29 inches above average.

Comfortable Morning, Warming Up Quickly

Monthly Recap:

Let's take a gander at how August shaped up before we dive into the forecast here. Overall, August ended up seasonable temperature-wise. However, it was a historic month in the rainfall department as the 8.88" that the Rockford Airport observed is now the 7th wettest August on record (since 1905). As we prepare to jump into not only the month of September but also meteorological fall, the topic of discussion won't be about rainfall. Instead, it'll be about the summer-like air that filters in ahead of our next frontal passage. 

Back to School:

Many across Rockford will be walking out the door this morning for their first day of school. Not a bad start to the school year weather-wise as we're still holding on to some of the comfortable air left behind by the early week cold front. Expect a few clouds, little patchy fog with temps hovering on either side of the 60-degree mark. But once that sun is sitting over the horizon, we'll see a quick rise in temperatures in the mid-day hours. 

Warming Up Quickly:

The same area of high pressure that brought us sun-filled skies the past two days will be sitting to our east this afternoon. This will place the region under southwest flow, resulting in both a climb in temperatures and humidity levels. Under a partly cloudy sky, expect highs to peak in the mid to upper 80s. We look to hold onto some of today's clouds for tonight, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 60s by sunrise Friday. 

Warm End to the Week:

Ahead of our next cold front, the upcoming climb in heat and humidity peaks Friday. Partly cloudy skies are expected for much of the day, with highs peaking in the upper 80s. The chance for a shower or a non-severe storm may become present towards the time football games get underway. 

However, a slightly better chance arrives with the actual cold front during the day on Saturday. Highs will fall a few degrees, with most landing in the lower 80s before winds shift to the northeast. Forecast models then show a high pressure system sliding over the Great Lakes late in the weekend and for the beginning of next week. Highs looks to remain in the lower 80s, with partly cloudy skies overhead for Monday and Tuesday.