Gorgeously Warm Weekend Ahead, Next Rain Chance Not Too Far Behind

Unseasonably Warm Friday:

I'll tell you what... I hope you were able to step outside Thursday as we saw huge improvements from the previous few days. With a warmer westerly to southwesterly wind in place, highs ended up about 10° to 20° warmer, with most of our spots landing in the lower 60s. 

But guess what? I have more great news. As we've been hinting at, yesterday's 60s was only the beginning of this warm and comfortable weather pattern that aims to carry on into the weekend. A warm front sliding through this morning will help continue the warming process by shifting our winds to the southwest. That, along with sun-filled skies will allow our temperature climb to peak in the low-to-mid 70s. 

Elevated Fire Risk:

It’ll also be a bit windy at times as those southwest winds aim to gust near 25-35mph. This combined with the very dry conditions as of late will elevate our fire risk for today and tomorrow. With that being said, please be mindful of any burning as any fire that is left without supervision will be capable of spreading rather quickly. Winds Saturday will not be as strong as today, but still a 25 mph wind is strong enough to spread any fires.

Weekend Warmth

And just when you thought it couldn't get warmer, temperatures both Saturday and Sunday look to end up closer to the 80-degree mark. Forecast models did paint a more sun-filled picture for Saturday, with a bit more cloud cover featured for the end of the weekend. While the daylight hours remain dry, our weather pattern turns more unsettled once we get into Sunday night. 

Early-Week Rain:

That is when we introduce our next chance for rain and even the possibility for a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Despite the wet weather that's slated for early next week, another warm front will allow temperatures to climb back into the low to possibly mid-70s Monday afternoon. Temperatures from there all depend on the timing of the associated cold front and the track of a secondary low around midweek.

Drought conditions expand across the Stateline

 

The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows that nearly 75% of the state of Illinois is consider abnormally dry, with moderate to severe drought conditions southwest of Chicago, and further downstate.

In Wisconsin the drought continues with nearly 60% of the state considered abnormally dry, with moderate to severe drought conditions across northern and western Wisconsin.

The month of October has only recorded 0.78 inches of precipitation, falling 0.93 inches below our month-to-date average. While we've managed to settle into a little bit of a drier pattern, the overall year-to-date precipitation remains in the positive, 2.59 inches above. Both September and August ended with a surplus in precipitation, so that has helped with our drier than normal conditions this month. Over the next week or two we may have a couple storm systems that bring us some rain, but there are no clear signals for either a surplus or deficit of rainfall in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. In the short-term, rain chances do return early next week. 

Weekend warmth comes with gusty winds

 

Temperatures Thursday afternoon warmed into the low 60s area wide, actually warming slightly *above* the average temperature for the 20th of October. The sunshine and warmth felt great considering temperatures the last three days didn't make it out of the 40s, and wind chills were in the 20s. High temperatures continue to climb through the weekend, warming into the mid and upper 70s (perhaps even a few 80 degrees readings).

This time of a year the warmth and wind typically go hand-in-hand, meaning our winds will increase going into the weekend. Peak wind gusts Friday could reach 35 mph, Saturday winds will reach 25 mph, and Sunday winds are expected to rise near 35 mph. Highs temperatures over the weekend warm into the middle and upper 70s! The gusty winds will be the result of a deepening low-pressure system moving through the Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend, before lifting into Canada early next week. Strong winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also contribute to the increasing surface wind.

The strong winds and warmth will last through Monday before a cold front moves in, bringing an end to the summer-like warmth next week. 

Goodbye 40s, Several Days in the 70s Ahead

Warmer Day Ahead:

Although today is FINALLY the day where we officially say goodbye to the early week chill, those heavier coats will be necessary early on. With skies clearing a bit overnight, temperatures once again have fallen into the upper 20s/low 30s. 

In a similar fashion to Wednesday, a sun-filled morning sky will give way to a few fair-weather cumulus clouds. That, along with today's westerly wind will help temperatures get out of the 40s and into the 50s. In fact, today's forecast high of 58° is much more typical of what we’d expect around the October 20th time frame. The same can be said for our overnight lows tonight. 

Warming Continues:

More sun is on tap for Friday and the weekend. But with winds being a bit breezy out of the southwest, highs will make the big jump from near 60° today to the low 70s Friday. Talk about a big difference in a work week's time huh? 

Now, it's not uncommon to see 70° weather in the forecast at this point in the fall season. According to the National Weather Service in Chicago, Rockford's last 70-degree day typically falls on October 26th. With that being said, all signs point to highs remaining in the 70s over the weekend and even into the beginning of next week. In fact, temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will land closer to the 80-degree mark than the 70-degree mark. 

Next Rain Chance:

Out of the weekend days, Sunday features more cloud cover as our next cold front approaches from the west-northwest. Ahead of this front, a round of showers aim to arrive Sunday night and may linger into a good portion of the day Monday. 

Still, temperatures Monday are expected reach the 70s for the fourth straight day. Severe potential locally at this point remains low for the Sunday-Monday time frame. However, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a 15% contour across portions of northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and western Iowa which is equivalent to a level 2 slight risk.

 

Rainfall during the month of October has been hard to come by, leaving us with only 0.78 inches of precipitation. Month-to-date average precipitation should be right around 1.6 inches. The deficit will continue to grow as our skies remain dry through the week, but the chance for rain does return early next week.

We'll continue to see a few clouds dot the skies Wednesday evening and overnight as an upper-level disturbance moves in from the north and northwest. Given how dry the atmosphere currently is, no precipitation is expected. Temperatures will fall to around 30 degrees, rising into the upper 50s Thursday afternoon.

High pressure moving through the Gulf will keep moisture pretty limited through the weekend, but it does increase as a stronger low develops out west. This low will draw up quite a bit moisture late Sunday and Monday of next week. As it does, the chance for rain will also increase - with even a few thunderstorms possible.

Strong to severe storms are possible throughout the Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon and

evening, but that risk remains pretty limited locally, as a strong cold front sweeps through. Rain and thunder chances will increase as the front nears Monday afternoon. Depending on how fast the cold front passes through the rain showers may linger into Tuesday with temperatures dropping back into the low and mid 50s.

Chilly Wednesday, Warming Trend Commences Thursday

Long Windy Stretch:

Along with the cooler-than-average temperatures, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin has seen quite the wind since early last week. When you take the average of Rockford's peak wind gust over the last 8 days, it comes to a whopping 36.4 mph. 

Fortunately for us, winds will simmer down some today, but remain rather chilly out of the northwest. This will make for another cooler-than average day across the region before big-time improvements arrive for the upcoming weekend. 

Chilly Wednesday:

Before heading out the door this morning, make sure to pack on those layers. Temperatures early on are sitting in the upper 20s and low 30s, with wind chills registering in the low 20s. From there, we'll see a similar temperature climb into the afternoon, with most landing just shy of 50°.

With an area of high pressure sitting over the central and southern plains, mixed sun can be expected from start to finish. Overnight, a few clouds remain present, with temperatures falling on either side of the 30-degree mark. The difference-maker however is the change in wind direction that occurs overnight. By the time we wake up Thursday morning, winds will be coming out of the southwest. This will help crank up the heat, bringing high temperatures back above-average for the late-week days and the weekend.

Upward Trend Commences:

Southwest winds and sunshine dominate much of the day Thursday, resulting in high temperatures closer to the 60-degree mark. We’ll warm even further into the weekend with highs in the low 70s stretching from Friday to Sunday. 

However, Sunday features an increase in cloud cover with rain chances being not too far behind. This all comes with our next cold front which will help carry rain chances into the start of next week. Another upper-level trough sliding into the western Great Lakes will slowly bring this mild stretch to an end, cooling down temperatures down into the middle of next week.

Tuesday & Wednesday Remain Chilly, Big Changes to Follow

Morning Chills:

Yesterday was a very winter-like day across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Not only did we see record cold, but a few of us got to see the first flakes of the 2022-2023 season. 

Officially, Rockford only climbed to 42°, breaking the previous record for coolest October 17th set back in 2002 (44°). In a similar fashion to Monday, you're going to want to layer up if your morning routine takes you out the door early. 

Continued Cold:

Temperatures to being the day have fallen into the upper 20s and low 30s. But with that robust northwesterly breeze still in place, wind chills out the door are sitting in the upper teens for some. 

BRRRR! Despite Tuesday featuring a little bit more sunshine than Monday, those chilly winds will limit our high temperatures to 40s once again. Wind chills, however, are to remain in the 30s for a majority of the daylight hours. Expect more of the same for Wednesday. However, we'll see a slight improvement in the wind department. With an area of high pressure sitting to our southwest, expect a little more sunshine with high temperatures just falling short of the 50-degree mark. 

Trending Upward:

It won't be until Thursday that a difference will be felt in the temperature department. Forecast models do show winds being more of the west, which will help drag in some of the warmer air that's been displace across the central plains. 

Under a mix of clouds and sun, high temperatures look to end up roughly 10° warmer than Wednesday. From there, all signs point to a significant warming trend that will place temperatures close to or around the 70-degree mark over the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Overnight lows gradually warm out of the 20s and into the 50s. If you're a big fan of warm weather like me, that's music to our ears!