Tranquil Start, Light Snow Tuesday Night into Wednesday

Sunday's Snowfall:

The light snow that fell throughout the day Sunday amounted to a little as a trace to the 1.8" observed at the Rockford International Airport. 

That my friends is now the highest snowfall total for the 2022-2023 winter season thus far. Sad I know. This is also why we have seen our seasonal snowfall deficit climb over a foot recently. But it's been the same story however this winter season, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin being on the short end of the stick with snowfall. While our next winter storm is a few days away, trends are making it seem likely that we'll miss our on the highest snowfall potential once again. 

Quiet Start:

Ridging both aloft and at the surface will result in a relatively tranquil start to the week. Both Monday and Tuesday feature quite a bit of cloud cover, with high temperatures peaking in the 30s. A little warmer tomorrow than this afternoon. 

Forecast models then show our next weather-maker diving off the Rocky Mountains and landing deep into southern Texas early Tuesday. This will place areas across the southern plains under the greatest threat for snow. Hence why the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Texas Panhandle, with a winter storm watch in place across central Oklahoma.

Midweek Snow Threat:

By Wednesday, the low aims to remain well to the south of the area, tracking through the bootheel of Missouri, western TN, and western KY. This will keep the great chance for snowfall accumulations away from the Stateline. 

However, there will be enough atmospheric moisture present for a round of scattered snow showers beginning late Tuesday night, stretching through the first half of Wednesday. With that being said, the event is still a few days out. We'll have to keep a close eye on how models trend with this system over the next 48 hours. That is why It will be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast during that stretch. But for now, it seems like we'll be missing out on another winter storm barring any significant changes in the track. 

Severe Threat South:

On the warmer side of the low, severe weather is likely across portions of the Gulf States. Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed the southernmost areas in LA, MS, AL, and a portion of the Florida Panhandle under a enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather. 

Wind profiles support the potential for a significant outbreak. The two uncertainties however is how much moisture can be pumped into the warm sector and the amount of instability present. But if everything does come together, all severe hazards will be on the table, including the possibility for a strong tornado or two. The severe threat lowers into Wednesday with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) in place across the Southeast U.S.

Cooler Friday, Light Snow Returns Over the Weekend

Lack of Snowfall: 

You would think with this week's rather active weather pattern that mother nature would at least slide in at least 1" of snow of more right? Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. 

Yes, we did have snow mix in on Wednesday and even a few flurries and light snow showers come through overnight. But all that amounted to at the Rockford Airport was a TRACE. Yep, that's it. This means the streak which involves the amount of days since our last 1" or more snow total inches closer to a month. This also places our snowfall deficit over the foot mark. So we have a lot, and I mean A LOT of catching up to do. 

Cooler Friday:

On my way in this morning, I did notice that snow was sticking to the roads. If you plan to travel during the morning commute, use extra caution because there may be a few slick spots. 

Any chance for snow comes to an end by mid-morning, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky. The combination of today's cloud cover and rather chilly northwesterly breeze will bring our high temperatures down a few degrees, landing most in the lower 30s. While there may be a few breaks in our cloud cover this evening, skies remain mostly cloudy overnight with temperatures falling into the low 20s. 

Weekend Snow Chance:

Cloud cover hangs around for a most if not all of our Saturday. Despite a wind shift to the southwest, high temperatures will peak near the 32-degree mark. By Saturday evening, light snow chances will once again enter the picture as a weak storm system passes to our south.

Forecast models have been consistent when it comes to snow accumulations, landing most in the T to 1.0" range. If you plan to be on the roads Sunday morning, slick spots will be a possibility. A ridge of high pressure then slides in behind our weekend snow-maker, resulting in a quiet start to the work week next week. However, another and yet stronger system is shown sliding across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes during the late Tuesday-early Thursday time frame. This event would bring northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin another chance for light snow. With that being said, there is still plenty of time for the forecast to change. But it will be something to monitor over the next few days.

Dense Fog Advisory Issued

Advisory Issued:

Heads up folks! A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued for Carroll and Whiteside Counties until 10AM. Over the next few hours, visibility could register around a 1/4 mile or less! 

1️⃣: Drive slowly

2️⃣: Travel with your low beams

3️⃣: Extra following distance

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8:30AM Update:

Winnebago, Boone, Dekalb, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, and Jo-Daviess Counties have been added to the DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

 

This portion of the advisory will last until 11AM!

 
 

Winter Storm Moves Out, Impactful Sct'd Mix Lingers

Lingering Effects:

With the dry slot of this late week storm moving in this morning, we can officially say that we are done with the worst of the precipitation. However, if you plan to travel this morning, drizzle will be possible as well as the potential for fog. 

Energy sliding in on the storm's backside will result in a secondary scattered round of mixed precipitation during the afternoon and evening. This may pose for a slick spot or two for the drive home. Winds also ramp up this evening, gusting out of the west-northwest at 25-35 mph. These cooler winds will help switchover any precipitation this evening to flurries and light snow. Expect a flurry or two to linger into the early stage of Friday, with lows falling into the upper 20s. 

Cooler Stretch Ahead:

With surface pressure remaining somewhat tight, winds remain breezy for Friday. This will continue to pull in much cooler air from the Upper Great Plains and southern Canada. 

As a result, temperatures Friday afternoon will struggle to climb above freezing (32°). Forecast models do keep a smidge of low-level moisture in place, meaning there won't be much if any room for the sun to make an appearance. Despite a wind shift to the southwest Saturday, more of the same can be expected for Saturday. 

Weekend Snow:

A third and much weaker low-pressure system aims to track to the south of the region over the weekend. This will pose for the chance for a few flurries and light snow showers overnight Saturday into the first half of Sunday. 

Again, nothing significant as any accumulations will be minor. Monday features a short-lived break from the onslaught of storm systems that we've been subjected to over the last week. Similar to this weekend, highs will peak in the low 30s under plenty of clouds. Light snow chances then ramp back up as we go into late Tuesday, lasting into Wednesday.

Light snow returns Saturday night

 

A wind driven rain will continue Wednesday evening before turning to drizzle and fog overnight, Thursday morning. Drizzle and fog will continue throughout the morning, with some of the fog becoming dense before sunrise. Light showers will mix back in with a few snow showers during the afternoon, after Noon, with scattered snow flurries Thursday evening. Skies remain mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday, but some clearing may occur Friday evening with temperatures falling into the low 20s.

A quick moving low-pressure system will move across the Midwest, into the Stateline late Saturday night and Sunday. As it does light snow will develop, moving across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Increasing moisture ahead of the low will lead to some accumulating snowfall during that time.

This won't be a big snow event, but a couple inches are possible. This would likely cause some slick conditions through Sunday morning with temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s.   

Wintry precipitation moving in Wednesday night

 

The radar Wednesday evening is beginning to get a little more active as precipitation quickly lifts from south to north across northern Illinois. While surface temperatures remain above freezing, we are beginning to see a little more blue show up on radar. Surface reports from south of Rockford are indicating that rain, sleet, and some snow, has started to fall.

The mixed precipitation developing is due to a process known as 'evaporative cooling'. This is where

the atmosphere cools due to evaporation of a liquid (in this case, the rain/snow). As a result, it causes the freezing level in the atmosphere to lower (the 32-degree line), transitioning the rain showers over to more sleet and snow. This process may last for a couple hours before we begin to see rain spread back north through the evening. The heavier nature of the precipitation is also helping with the transition over to the wintry precipitation.

Snow accumulations will remain light area wide, although a slushy inch or two is possible over south-central Wisconsin and northwest Illinois where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Wind speeds are also expected to increase, gusting 30-35 mph later this evening.

The steadier precipitation will come to an end later tonight as drier air wraps in around the low. This will lead to more drizzle and fog for Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon a mixture of rain and snow are likely once again for the afternoon. Be careful if out driving this evening, as well as Thursday morning.  

Next Winter Storm Slides In, Impacts Begin Late-Wednesday

Winter Alerts Issued:

Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service placed Jo-Daviess County in N. Illinois and Green County in S. Wisconsin under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. This advisory will begin at 6PM this evening, lasting until 9AM Thursday. In the areas that are more favored for accumulating snow, a winter storm warning has been put in place. This stretches from the northeast corner of Colorado to extreme northern Wisconsin. 

Timing Out the Storm:

Prior to sunrise, our next storm system is preparing to eject into the central and southern plains. With how much distance this storm still has to travel in mind, it will take some time for the precipitation to actually reach the Stateline. 

That's why we can expect mainly dry but cloudy conditions for a majority of the daylight hours. It won't be until the late-afternoon and early-evening time frame in which we see our first chance for precipitation come into play. To start, precipitation looks to start off as scattered light snow, but a gradual transition to a mixed precipitation will take place as the evening progresses.

It's also during this time in which we'll have to keep an eye on the rain/snow mix line so where temperatures are sitting at the 32-degree mark. Any southward wobble will result in a bit more snow for areas along and north of Interstate 88. The opposite will occur if we see the rain/snow mix line make a slight jump to the north. 

Wind also picks up this evening, gusting out of the east northeast between 25-35 mph. Especially if we see a bit more snow than rain during this time, travel will become a bit more treacherous. As we inch closer to sunrise Thursday morning, the storm's dry slot is expected to move overhead. This will significantly break apart the activity, leaving us with a few scattered mixed showers Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. 

How Much?:

Similar to how much of this winter season has been for us, we'll more than likely miss another chance for accumulating snow. Areas in extreme northwest Illinois and in southwest Wisconsin will have a better shot at picking up 1"-4". 

Anywhere south and east of that will only be able to pick up a trace to as much as an inch. As mentioned previously, any southward wobble in the storms track will heighten our chances for more snowfall. As the storm system departs, the story then becomes the cold as forecast models do show a considerable amount of cold air filtering in on the backside. Temperatures fall from the upper 30s both today and tomorrow to only 32-degree Friday afternoon.