Colder pattern set to return this week

 

After an unseasonably warm January, the pattern has changed quite a bit as we look to end the month on a much colder note. Temperatures Sunday afternoon warmed to only the upper teens and low 20s, reaching 21 degrees in Rockford. While it wasn't quite as snowy as Saturday, the impacts from the snow were still felt Sunday afternoon. A few flurries remain possibly during the night as temperatures are expected to fall into the single digits. Wind chills, however, will fall below zero - and already have (and have been) over far northwest Illinois. This has been in an area that experienced a little less cloud cover Sunday afternoon.

Cloud cover looks to stick around during the day Monday, although we may see a little clearing take place during the afternoon and evening. This will occur as high pressure brings drier air into the region. Temperatures Monday won't warm much, in fact, it's possible that our highs may be reached early in the day, with numbers slowly falling back into the evening.

A colder pattern settles in thanks to a couple cold, Canadian, high-pressure systems moving through the Plains and Midwest this week. The first is set to move in Monday night/Tuesday morning, centering right over west-central Illinois. With the fresh snow cover, temperatures are likely to fall quick Monday evening. However, some models are suggesting that an increase in cloud cover will occur during that time. If this occurs, our temperatures may not fall as fast, or as low, as expected keeping wind chills a little warmer than anticipated. Right now, it looks like wind chills could fall as low as -20 degrees in some locations Tuesday morning.

Winds will turn back to the south as the first high-pressure system departs Tuesday night. It won't do much to warm our temperatures, however, as highs are still expected to remain in the 20s. The next high will move to our north, shifting winds to the northeast Thursday night and Friday. Those northeast winds will increase once again - especially Friday - pushing temperatures back down into the teens Friday afternoon and overnight lows back down below zero. We may see a little bit of a pattern change the first weekend of February with temperatures warm back into the low 30s. Longer-range outlooks place northern Illinois at a slightly higher probability for above average temperatures within the first week and a half of the month. 

Significant snowfall *possible* Saturday; Big chill follows

 

Light snow will continue to fall Wednesday night and throughout the day Thursday before briefly coming to an end Thursday night. Snow showers will pick back up Friday morning as a warm front quickly moves across northern Illinois. Between the two days an additional 1-2 inches of snow is possible. While these snow events will have some impacts, we could be looking at a more impactful snow event to kick off the weekend.

A strong cold front will move across the area Friday night, filtering in a much colder air mass during that time. As the front stalls just to the south Saturday, a weak low-pressure system will develop to the southwest and move along the front Saturday afternoon and evening. Our forecast models have been fairly consistent on developing a band of snow Saturday morning, moving right along northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin throughout the day.

Temperatures during this time will be cold, in the low to mid 20s, so any snow that does come down will stick right away. In the upper levels, forcing (or lift) will be increasing. This could allow for a steady snow to fall during the afternoon and evening. While it is way too early to get into the specifics on any snow amounts, if this trend continues it would likely be our biggest snowfall of the Winter season. The placement of the snow will depend heavily on where the leading edge of the cold air ends up. If it slips further to our south, this is where the heavier snow will fall. There's a lot to keep an eye on as we near the weekend, not only with the snow on Saturday, but also with the cold that is set to follow into next week. If we get a fresh coating of snow Saturday, temperatures could fall even further than the current forecast!

Light snow continues Wednesday night, Thursday and Friday

 

The Winter Weather Advisory that had been issued for most Wednesday morning was canceled in the early afternoon as the majority of the accumulating snow had ended. We will continue to see light snow for the remainder of Wednesday evening, leading into Thursday, as an unsettled weather pattern remains over the Great Lakes. Snowfall totals from across the area ranged between one to three inches, with slightly higher amounts in our southern counties of Lee and DeKalb.

Temperatures during the afternoon warmed into the low 30s, above freezing, so any additional snow that comes down during the early evening should melt on contact - at least on the well-traveled roads. But overnight lows are expected to fall into the upper 20s which could lead to any residual moisture and slush left on the roads, parking lots and sidewalks to refreeze. This may result in icy conditions Thursday morning.

Scattered snow showers will continue throughout the afternoon Thursday with an additional half an inch, to an inch, falling during that time. Temperatures Thursday will warm into the low 30s. Clearing may briefly take place Thursday evening leading to temperatures dipping into the teens in some locations. Clouds will be quick to build back in by early Friday morning as a fast-moving low-pressure system moves across the Upper Midwest. This will result in a warm front lifting close to northwest Illinois Friday morning.

A quick increase in moisture and lift will help form a band of snow during the pre-dawn hours Friday, lasting through most of Friday morning. Southwest winds will also be increasing during that time, gusting to around 30 mph. This will more than likely cause issues for the morning commute, with slick roads and reduced visibility. Temperatures on Friday will briefly warm into the low 30s with lows falling into the teens Friday night.  

Winter Weather Advisory In Place, Impacts to Morning Commute Likely,

Wednesday's Snow:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is now in effect for all of northern Illinois as well as south-central Wisconsin until 3PM this afternoon. 

Shortly after midnight, light snow began to cover roads in our southernmost areas, eventually overspreading the rest of the region ahead of the morning commute. Because of this, there will be two things you'll have to take into account. The first being the likelihood for snow-covered roads. The second, reduced visibility. If you plan to be out on the roads this morning, please allow extra time for travel and take it slow out there. Expect snow to remain steady into the mid-day hours before becoming more scattered for the afternoon and evening. 

Temperatures during the day will remain in the low 30s, close to freezing, which means a heavier and wet snow is expected. Overall, most will generally see 1"- 3", which slightly higher totals in areas that sit along and south of I-88. 

While the evening commute won't be as much of a mess, there will likely be light snow, or at least a few linger flurries, falling during that time. So be on the lookout for a few slick spots. Light snow showers may linger into early Thursday, though most of the day will be dry. Cloud cover and a light northerly wind will remain in place during the day, resulting in highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.

Friday's Cold Front:

Once today's chances come to a close, our focus will then turn to our next snow chance will comes in the form of a cold front Friday. Since most will see temperatures at or just above the freezing mark, there may be a moment or two where precipitation will fall as a wintry mix. 

Forecast models then show a better opportunity for snow over the weekend as a quick-moving storm system slides to our south. Behind our weekend storm system, a blast of frigidly cold air is to take place, plummeting temperatures into the early stages of next week. Long-range models are in slightly in disagreement on the timing of when this air-mass spills in the Great Lakes. However, expect highs to fall into the teens for Sunday and Monday, with overnight lows falling into the single-digits.

Snow Wednesday morning could impact commute: Winter Weather Advisory issued

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for all of northern Illinois and south-central Wisconsin, beginning late Tuesday night lasting through 3pm Wednesday. Light snow will move in from south to north overnight, overspreading most of the Stateline by Wednesday morning.

Snow showers Wednesday morning will remain mostly light, but a few steadier pockets of snow are possible. Minor accumulations are likely for some before sunrise, especially for those along I-88. Most will see the snow add up throughout the morning.

Snow amounts are likely to total between 1-3 inches, enough for us to manage, but with the snow coming down during the morning commute there are likely to be some impacts for drivers. So, make sure you are careful while out during the morning.

The snow will remain steady through 12pm-1pm before becoming more scattered into the afternoon and evening. Temperatures during the day Wednesday will remain in the low 30s, close to freezing, which means a heavier and wet snow is expected. There will likely be light snow, or at least flurries, falling during the evening commute Wednesday, carrying over into Thursday as an upper-level disturbance rotates along the backside of the surface low. 

An additional half an inch, to an inch, of snow can be expected Thursday. Skies will remain cloudy Thursday night ahead of another quick moving system that'll bring additional snow showers to the region Friday morning and early afternoon.    

Cloudy Tuesday, Light Snow Arrives Wednesday Morning

Dry Tuesday:

The only issue with today's forecast is the potential for a slick spot or two thanks to the freezing drizzle that moved through overnight. Otherwise, we can expect another dry but mostly cloudy day. 

With cloud cover remaining firmly in place for a majority of the day, temperatures will only climb a few degrees, landing in the low to mid 30s. 

But when you factor in today's light wind out of the west-southwest, it will feel more like the 20s this afternoon. Much of the overnight hours also remains dry under a mostly cloudy sky. However, light snow chances will be ramping up towards daybreak as our next storm system glides across the midsection of the U.S.

Next Storm System:

As of this morning, winter weather alerts span from western New Mexico up to the U.S/Canadian border in northern Maine. 

In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for counties directly south of our forecast area, with a winter storm warning in place further downstate. Whether they plan on pushing the winter weather advisory into our neck of the woods is still up in the air,

Locally, light snow moves in shortly before or around daybreak, lasting well into the day. It's because of this that you'll need to implement extra time into your morning routine as slippery travel will be a big possibility. As the low tracks into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, expect snow to decrease in intensity sometime during the early to mid afternoon hours. 

Models have remained very consistent in placing the highest snowfall totals across central and southern Illinois, as well as central Indiana. However, like most of the systems we've experienced this winter, we'll end up on the short end of the stick. Most will be able to pick up 1" to 2", with slightly higher totals along and south of Interstate 88. Thursday features a few flurries early on, with cloudy skies remaining overhead during the afternoon.

More Snow Chances:

Following Wednesday's snow-maker, there will be a few more opportunities for light snow this week. A phrase probably Stateline snow-lovers have been WAITING to hear all winter. Snow chances return with a cold front on Friday, then again late Saturday night into Sunday. 

Behind both systems, a blast of Arctic air will settle in, dropping temperatures below late-January and early-February standards. Highs by the end of the weekend fall into the teens, with overnight lows registering in the single-digits. Mother nature has been very kind to us since the new year began, giving us 19 above-average days. But as the famous saying goes "what goes up must come down".

Winter chill and snow return to close out the month of January

The above normal trend we've become accustomed to this winter season may be coming to an end as a pattern change pushes quite a bit of cold air down into the lower 48. The return of the cold also means an increased chance for a little wintry weather, the first of which will arrive Monday evening.

Clouds were able to clear just enough to give us a glimpse of the sun during the afternoon and evening. A much-welcomed sight! Whatever clearing took place, however, will fill back in with cloud cover ahead of a weakening cold front that is expected to move across south-central Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Light snow flurries have been occurring to the north in Wisconsin, and some of those make sneak down into the Stateline later tonight. With those flurries, freezing drizzle may also occur during the night - roughly between 9pm/10pm and 5am. While the chance for freezing drizzle is low, it may be just enough to cause some issues on the roads and for the morning commute. Be sure to use caution and give yourself a little extra time in the morning.

Temperatures will remain on the cooler side, especially towards the end of the week as a strong cold front sweeps through. Highs Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will warm to the low 30s - which is still a little above average - but will drop into the 20s, and then possibly teens, for the weekend and start of next week.

The colder air will also bring an increased chance in snow showers, beginning first Wednesday. A strong low-pressure system will move to the south of the Stateline Tuesday and Wednesday. The track right now has the low a little too far south to give northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin any significant snowfall, but an inch or two is possible. A shift to the north would mean a slightly higher chance for accumulating snowfall.

Following Wednesday's storm system there remain a few more opportunities for light snow this week: Friday and late Saturday night, into Sunday. This cooler pattern could also stick around into the beginning of February as longer-range outlooks support a higher probability for below average temperatures.