Snow chances return by the end of the week

 

Winter storm watches have been issued for some of the Stateline beginning Thursday afternoon, lasting through Friday morning. This is ahead of what could be an accumulating snow event for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Cloud cover will continue to increase through the night Tuesday as temperatures slowly fall through the 40s, eventually ending into the low 30s Wednesday morning. High pressure positioned to the north and northeast will keep a fair amount of dry air in place during the day Wednesday. This will also keep most of the precipitation to our west and south through Thursday afternoon.

As the high slips further to the east and southeast, it'll allow moisture to move into Illinois Thursday evening. This will bring in a band of light snow during that time from the west and southwest. Low pressure passing to the south puts northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin in a higher probability for at least some accumulating snowfall through Friday morning. A slightly further track to the north would bring the threat for more mixed precipitation, and possibly rain, further north as well. Temperatures in the middle 30s during the afternoon Friday would allow the snow to be more heavy and wet, given the amount of moisture in the atmosphere.

Any snow in the morning would begin to mix with some light rain during the afternoon before coming to an end Friday evening. It's still a little too early to give exact specifics on snowfall amounts, but at least a few inches of snow are possible for some. Impacts to the roads overnight Thursday, into Friday morning are possible as well.   

Cooler Stretch Ahead, Latest on Late Week Snow Chance

Cooler Tuesday:

Well my friends, as that well-known saying goes, all good things must come to an end. Monday's strong frontal passage has put a temporary conclusion on the 50-degree weather that's been in place since the final days of February. 

Despite the fact that the Stateline will see sunshine emerge towards the mid-day hours, a chilly northeasterly breeze will limit highs to the mid 40s. Clouds return rather quickly this evening, leaving us under a mostly cloudy to overcast sky overnight tonight and for the entirety of Wednesday. In a similar fashion to today, high temperatures will peak in the mid 40s.

Latest on Friday's Storm:

From there, our attention will then turn towards a storm system that has the potential to bring impacts to the region by week's end. Before we jump into the latest regarding the storm, I'd just like to point out that models still didn't have a good grasp on the track of the storm. This is something that will be hashed out over the 48 hours. But what has remained consistent is the timing.

A round of mixed precipitation aims to move in late Thursday, with wintry mix chances stretching into the early portions of Thursday night. However, as temperatures cool to or even sink a degree or two below the 32-degree mark, a changeover to all snow will result by early Friday morning. 

At this moment in time, there appears to be a lengthy stretch on Friday in which the primary precipitation type will be snow.

As of this morning, it seems that areas positioned north of Interstate 88 will have the better potential for snowfall accumulations. But as I mentioned previously, we'll have to see how models trend with the overall track as well as monitor the placement of the 32-degree line. 

The slightest bump to the north would dramatically change the way this event unfolds. High pressure moving in behind Friday's storm will briefly quiet down our weather pattern for Saturday. Not too far behind however will be our next opportunity for snow Saturday night into the first half of Sunday. The difference with this weekend's system is that temperatures won't be an issue. Temperatures by sunrise Sunday morning will be sitting in the mid 20s. Something else to keep an eye on.

Cooling Down After Today, Next Impactful Storm Scheduled For Friday

Looking Ahead:

After dodging yet another opportunity for a winter storm Friday, a good portion of Saturday and Sunday remained dry with highs reaching the upper 40s and low 50s. 

While this kind of warmth is something that we've gotten quite accustomed to over this winter season, big changes follow the strong cold front that is scheduled to slide through today. 

Transition Monday:

With a southeasterly wind in place ahead of the front, highs will likely reach the low 50s around or shortly after mid-day. However, once our winds make the turn to the northwest, temperatures will be sent on a downward spiral this afternoon, landing on either side of the 40° mark by the time the evening commute commences. This all occurs under a mostly cloudy sky, with cloud cover not budging the slightest as we go into our Tuesday. 

Cooler Moving Forward:

The cooler start that greets us out the door Tuesday will pave the way for a cooler afternoon. Despite some clearing occurring into mid-day, a chilly breeze out of the northeast will limit highs to the low 40s. Similar temperatures will be felt Wednesday afternoon, with more cloud cover hovering across our skies. 

Come Thursday, our weather patterns turns a bit more active as yet another impactful storm system sets it's eyes on the Stateline. One that will place us in an environment for wintry precipitation. However, the type of precipitation we encounter will all be dependent on the location of the 32-degree line. Models keep it in between I-80 and highway 20, meaning it won't take much of a northward bump for snow to mix with freezing rain and sleet Friday afternoon. 

Still very early. But something to monitor nonetheless.

Winter Storm Impacts Less Likely, Warm Weekend Ahead

Southward Shift:

Once again, mother nature teased northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with the potential for a late-season winter storm. 

Unfortunately, the likelihood of that happening has dropped significantly as forecast models have continued to show a southward trend in the storm's overall track. For those who didn't want snow, this is music to your ears.

Taking into account the southward shift, the National Weather Service has placed areas south of Chicago, in extreme northern Indiana, and in the southern half of Michigan under a Winter Storm Warning. On the outskirts of the warning is a Winter Weather Advisory. Locally, no winter alerts are currently in place. 

If you are heading out this morning, expect a mostly cloudy but dry start with temperatures in the low 30s. It won't be until the late-morning and early-afternoon hours in which an influx of moisture will result in a light mix of rain and snow. However, hi-res models leave the best chances for areas along and south of Interstate 88 and even to the east of interstate 39. Post-evening commute, any precipitation that is around the area looks to wrap up, leaving us dry overnight. Skies from there will slowly turn partly cloudy, with overnight lows falling back into the upper 20s and low 30s. 

Weekend Forecast:

The best opportunity for sunshine Saturday will be early on in the day. Towards the late morning and early afternoon, a weak cold front is scheduled to sweep across the region. This will bring not only more cloud cover but also a small chance for a passing shower or two. 

Highs temperatures aim to peak in the upper 40s Saturday afternoon, and then again Sunday afternoon. A better chance for rain will become present late Sunday night into the early portions of Monday as a secondary system lifts into the Great Lakes from the Midwest. With the track of this storm being primarily to the west, highs will climb a bit further, landing in the low 50s Monday afternoon.

Dry Thursday, Latest Regarding Friday's Storm

Dry Thursday:

Mother nature gave us quite the treat for the first day of meteorological spring. The sun-filled skies we saw gave temperatures a nice boost as highs landed in the low to mid 50s. The weather today won't be as pleasant thanks to a weak cold front that swung through overnight. Expect mostly cloudy skies from start to finish, with highs landing between 10°-20° cooler.

Friday's Storm:

I'll be honest, Friday's storm system has been a "forecasting headache" so to speak as models have failed to get a firm grip on the the storm’s track, precipitation type, and the placement of highest impacts. Are models in better agreement? 

Only by a smidge I'd say. In fact, forecast models have come in with a slight shift to the south with the overall track of the storm, taking the surface low through extreme southern Illinois mid to late Friday morning. Because of this change, the area in which the highest impacts will occur also has shifted southward but does include a portion of the Stateline.

Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service placed counties to the southeast of our forecast area under a WINTER STORM WATCH. 

This watch does NOT include any of our counties. However, that could very well change throughout the day as more details regarding Friday's system reveal themselves. So, it will be VERY important to pay attention to the forecast this afternoon and evening for the latest. 

As of right now, it does still look like this event will begin as a light wintry mix, with a changeover to snow showers after mid-day. Any snow that does manage to fall will be heavy and wet, and will have a difficult time overcoming the extremely warm pavement temperatures. But you should expect some impacts to Friday's evening commute. Along with tomorrow's messy weather is a rather intense wind out of the east and northeast. 

Gusts could land in the 30-40 mph range, especially during the afternoon hours. Beyond Friday's low, mainly dry conditions filter in for the upcoming weekend. The only change we are keeping an eye on is during the latter half of Saturday as a washed out cold front slides through. Otherwise, a somewhat organized system will bring a better chance for rain late Sunday into Monday.

Storm spotter training classes

 

Accumulating snow may be in the forecast later this week, but storm spotter training classes have been in full swing the last few weeks. During the month of March there are a few local storm spotter training classes that'll be taking place.

To find additional classes, or virtual spotter training classes, following the links below: 

Chicago area (Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, McHenry counties)

Quad Cities area (Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, Whiteside counties)

Milwaukee area (Green, Rock, Walworth counties)

The classes last about two hours, are free and open to the public. The class will cover all severe weather hazards, including thunderstorms and tornadoes. This includes storm structure and movement, what to look for when spotting, what to report, important storm features and most importantly, storm safety when spotting. 

Mild Wednesday, Remaining Dry Ahead of Friday's Winter Storm

Welcome to Spring:

The extremely mild stretch that rounded out the month of February will thankfully stick around for the first day of Meteorological Spring. A quick reminder, Meteorological Spring includes the stretch of days between March 1st and May 31st. It's during this 3 month period in which we see our biggest climb in average high temperatures. 

Mild Wednesday:

The first day of the new season kicks off with a bit of cloud cover after we had a couple of showers roam through the region overnight. Clouds will stick around for much of the morning before giving way to some sunshine by the afternoon. 

That, along with today's westerly breeze will allow temperatures to climb into the low 50s. Something we typically see at the end of March, not at the start. Overnight, winds gradually turn to the east-northeast, resulting in a considerable cooler Thursday. Highs will end up on either side of the 40-degree mark under a mostly cloudy sky. It's then our focus will turn to our next storm system which has a good chance of bringing impacts to the area during the day Friday.