Single digit chills possible Tuesday morning

 

It'll feel more like late December or early January Tuesday morning as wind chills are forecast to drop into the single digits.

Cloud cover has been plenty Monday afternoon behind a departing low-pressure system. High pressure building down the Plains will move into the Midwest Tuesday morning, settling into the Great Lakes by the afternoon. Scattered snow flurries have been occurring and will continue through just after sunset. Clouds will be slow to clear through the night and this could have an impact on just how far air temperatures fall. Right now, the forecast is calling for the middle to upper teens. There will be enough of a breeze through the morning that, if temperatures fall far enough, could push wind chills into the single digits Tuesday morning. This risk would be highest over areas that still have a little more snowpack on the ground.

High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will only warm to the middle to upper 30s, still roughly 5-10 degrees below average. Lighter winds during the afternoon will help some with the wind chills.   

Flurries Possible Monday, Single-Digit Chills Kick Off Tuesday

Snowy Stretch:

It took a while, but our friend Mr. Winter finally brought a stretch of weather snow-lovers to enjoy here in the Stateline. 

In fact, the two areas of low pressure that were responsible for this stretch brought Rockford both it's highest daily snowfall total for the winter season (6.8") and the snowiest 3-day stretch in March since 2002. Moving forward, we're not out of the woods just yet. Snow chances persist into the beginning of the work week thanks to the close-proximity of this storm system.

Flurries Monday:

Moisture swinging onto the backside of this past weekend's snow-maker will keep our skies mostly cloudy from start to finish today. It may also result in a round of scattered flurries, especially during the first half of the day. 

This may be enough to leave behind extremely minor accumulations (< 0.5"). Today's cloud cover and rather chilly north to northwesterly breeze will severely limit highs to the low 30s. Wind chills will end up even lower, struggling to climb out of the teens this afternoon. Cloud cover kicks off the night, with clearing taking place as we enter the early stages of Tuesday. This of course will heighten the cooling process, allow temperatures to fall into the middle teens. In a similar fashion to Monday morning, wind chills will be an issue, with values registering in the single-digits.

Sunshine Returns:

High pressure will move into all levels of the atmosphere for Tuesday, resulting in plenty of afternoon sunshine. Despite the sun's return, winds for a majority of the day will remain out of the north, restricting highs again to the 30s. The location of this high pressure system will play a key role into the warming trend that occurs into the mid portions of the work week. 

Overnight into Wednesday, winds will take a turn to the south and southwest, allowing highs Wednesday to approach the 50-degree mark. Another seasonably mild day is on tap Thursday. However, it’ll be far less pleasant as we are set to deal with another strong storm system that swings in from the central plains. 

As of this morning, forecast models place us on the warmer side of the low's center. Meaning, rain will be the primary precipitation type Thursday, transitioning to a mix on Friday as much cooler air filters in. It wouldn't be out of the question if a few rumbles of thunder were heard, especially during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Severe weather on the other hand is not likely. Temperatures look to fall following the passage of a strong cold front Friday morning, from the upper 40s to the low 30s. Buckle up folks!

Colder pattern settles in for the start of the week

 

Temperatures through nearly the first two weeks of March have been mostly above average. The last three days, however, have featured quite the cool down. Highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday failed to reach above 40 degrees. This is a trend that appears to continue at least for the start of the new week.

Skies have been filled with plenty of cloud cover Sunday afternoon. A rather vigorous low-pressure system spinning through southern Wisconsin will

continue to move over the southern Great Lakes Sunday night. Rotating around the low have been scattered snow flurries and showers, now moving into the Stateline as of 7pm. We will continue to see the flurries and snow showers through the overnight, as well as throughout the day Monday. Little accumulation is expected, but any steadier snow shower will have an easier time sticking to the surface. This could cause a few slick conditions into Monday morning.

Temperatures will be quite cold for March standards Monday, warming only to the low 30s for the afternoon. A brisk northwest wind will push wind chills into the low teens during the morning, with chills right around 20 degrees for the afternoon! High pressure moving in Tuesday will bring a return of the sunshine but won't do much for our temperatures, keeping us in the middle to upper 30s for the afternoon. Wind chills Tuesday morning could dip into the single digits!

A quick return of Spring-like warmth will follow Wednesday and Thursday, but it may come with plenty of rain heading into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will then fall back into the 30s by the end of the week and weekend. 

Slushy, Wet Morning Commute, Snow Chances Return This Weekend

Thursday's Snow:

The Stateline is waking up to quick the snowy scene on this Friday morning. Totals as of midnight fell within the 4" to 7" range, with Bull Valley (McHenry County) coming in on top with 8.1"of snow. Rockford total came to 6.8", which is now the highest daily snowfall total for this winter season. In my opinion, it's about time mother nature to give us a decent winter storm.

With the worst of the winter storm now behind us, the National Weather Service has cancelled the warning that was in place for Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, and Carroll Counties. 

All that remains now is the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee, and Dekalb Counties in N. Illinois, as well as our three counties up in S. Wisconsin. That advisory remains in effect until 7AM. This is mainly for the threat for slushy road conditions during the morning commute. If you plan to travel, use extra caution and take your time, especially on rural or untreated roadways. Main roads will be fine, just wet and slushy in spots. 

Lingering Chances:

Even with the low pulling away to our east, there will be just enough moisture spiraling into our atmosphere for a widely scattered mix during the early and mid afternoon hours. Highs because of today's cloud cover and rather chilly north to northwest wind will end up a few degrees cooler, landing in the upper 30s. From there, clouds hang tight for Friday night, and are expected to linger into a good chunk of our Saturday.

Weekend Snow?:   

As we've been hinting at the past few days, our late week winter storm wasn't the only opportunity for the Stateline to witness some snow. 

A second disturbance will take aim at our region Saturday evening, allowing chances to return Saturday night into the first half of Sunday. While accumulations don't look to land anywhere close to what we experienced over the last 24 hours, an additional 1" to 3"can be expected. It won't be until early next week in which we begin to move into a more quiet weather pattern. Temperatures over the weekend peak in the upper 30s, cooling into the low 30s by Monday.

Wet Snow Arrives This Afternoon, Impacts Highest Overnight into Early Friday

 Latest on Winter Storm:

Unlike last week's winter storm, the one that is expected to move through over the next 24 hours is going to give the Stateline a snowy makeover. To begin, there have been a couple of changes to the winter alerts issued yesterday. 

First, Jo-Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside Counties have been upgraded to a WINTER STORM WARNING. Secondly, the remaining counties in our forecast area have been placed under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. The warning begins at 9AM this morning whereas the advisory will begin at 3PM this afternoon. Fortunately, the wintry mix and wet snow hold off until this afternoon, meaning that there will be no issues for those heading out this morning. 

Timing of the Snow:

This event should begin shortly after mid-day, likely as a wintry mix with temperatures being a good chunk above the 32-degree mark. As the afternoon progresses, a cooling trend will result in a changeover to a wet snow. Once the transition is complete, snow will pick up in intensity during the evening and overnight hours, which is when impacts will be at their highest. 

One thing going for us is that road temperatures have been quite warm over the past couple of days. So it might take a bit before the snow actually begins to impact our local roadways. However, once the heavy, wet snow overcomes road temperatures, expect slushy and treacherous travel conditions to develop shortly after. 

Power outages may also become an issue with this upcoming winter storm. Especially when you take into account the the snow's heavy texture and the gusty east to northeast wind that will be in place. As we've been saying with each winter storm, it's best to have a power outage kit ready just in case you ending up losing power. One that contains a few flashlights, water, non-perishable foods, and a first aid kit.

Before we go into snowfall totals, it's important to point out that there still is some uncertainty when it comes to accumulations because of how much will melt on contact. But, current thinking suggests that areas north of Interstate 88 will have the potential to pick up 4" to 7" by Friday morning. 

Lighter snowfall amounts are likely along and south of the interstate, while the highest amounts are expected across eastern Iowa and across the southeast regions of Wisconsin. The more intense activity should wrap up during the early stages of Friday, leaving some impacts for those planning to travel during the morning commute. As temperatures slowly climb further away from the 32-degree mark, expect lingering snow showers to mix with light rain. 

Eventually, we will begin to see this event come to a close before mid-day, leaving us mostly cloudy for the afternoon. From there, we'll have to keep an eye on another storm system over the weekend. One that may bring additional snowfall to the Stateline Saturday night into Sunday.

Heavy, wet snow moves in Thursday evening

 

The beginning of our next late season snow event is starting to unfold Wednesday evening. A few light snow showers have been working through parts of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. While most of this is likely not reaching the ground, I have received some reports that there are a few light snow showers falling. Anything that does comes down is not expected to accumulate. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night with temperatures falling to the low 30s.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS have been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess and Carroll counties. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES have been issued for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, Whiteside, Green, Rock and Walworth counties. These go into effect Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures during the day Thursday will warm to the upper 30s and low 40s. As moisture increases through the morning, a light mix of rain and snow (just rain for some) will develop after Noon. Precipitation will continue to spread across the region, but as it does temperatures will actually begin to fall into the middle 30s by late afternoon. This will allow any mixed precipitation to switch over to all snow. The snow will be light initially but should pick up in intensity through the evening, turning heavy late evening.

Temperatures leading into Thursday have been unseasonably warm. And this warmth may, initially, limit impacts on the roads when the snow begins. But as heavier snowfall rates develop the warmth of the surface may be overcome, allowing the snow to quickly accumulate on the roads. This could cause some issues for the evening commute, most likely after sunset. The heaviest of the snow is expected to fall late evening, into the overnight, before tapering off into Friday morning. Lingering impacts on the roads are possible Friday morning.

Snowfall totals look to range between 4-6 inches north of I-88, with the highest falling close to the state line. To the south, 2-4 inches is possible. The snow is expected to be very heavy and wet. Snow to liquid ratios will range from 8:1 to 10:1. A rain/snow mix is then possible during the afternoon Friday, before clearing out Friday night.

Winter Storm Potential Increasing, Highest Impacts Thursday Night into Friday

Calm But Cloudy:

Wednesday will be a textbook example of the phrase "calm before the storm" as much of the day remains quiet under a blanket of clouds. There is a weak disturbance currently making it's way through the southern half of Iowa that aims to track to the south of Interstate 80 before mid-day. 

If any precipitation does manage to appear on any of our local radars, it would likely fall as virga (precipitation that evaporates before reaching the surface). Especially when you take into account the amount of low-level dry air that is in place thanks to the area of high pressure sitting to our north and east. Despite the fact that cloud cover will dominate our skies for the entirety of our Wednesday, temperatures will still manage to peak in the mid 40s. 

Latest on the Storm:

Now to discuss the elephant in the room, the impactful storm system that is schedule to move in Thursday night into Friday. Over the last 24 hours, forecast models have taken the storm's overall track and shifted it to the south. 

This heightens the snowfall accumulation potential for extreme northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.With that being said, the National Weather Service has placed Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, Boone, McHenry, and Winnebago County in northern Illinois, as well as our three southern Wisconsin counties under a WINTER STORM WATCH. This watch is scheduled to begin Thursday afternoon, lasting into the morning hours of Friday. 

Thursday starts off cloudy but dry so no need to change up your morning routine. It’s shortly after the mid-day hours where we will begin to see precipitation move in from the southwest. Ahead of the evening commute, snow will more than likely begin to overspread the area. 

At the current moment, it does look like pavement temperatures will be warm enough to prevent any impacts to the evening commute. With the 32° line remain south of I-88, snow will be the primary type of precipitation overnight Thursday into Friday morning. It's during this time in which we will pick up a majority of the accumulations with this late week event. Now, the chance for impacts will be greater during the morning commute Friday than during the evening commute Thursday. However, we will have to see how long it actually takes for the snow to start accumulating. 

Snow chances stick around for much of Friday morning, mixing with some light rain during the afternoon. Overall, precipitation should wrap up ahead Friday evening's commute. 

Again, it's a little too early to give specifics on snowfall amounts, but at least a few inches of snow are possible for those near the IL/WI border. That's why it will be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast throughout the day. As I mentioned in Tuesday morning's blog post, we'll have to keep an eye on another storm system this weekend. One that will bring another chance for snow late Saturday night into the first half of Sunday.