Second day of 80 degree heat, Fire weather concerns continue

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon warmed into the low 80s and it looks like we will do it all over again Thursday. Under mostly sunny skies Thursday highs will quickly warm from the low 50s in the morning, to the low 80s during the afternoon.

RED FLAG WARNINGS have once again been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, and Carroll counties beginning at 11am. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH has been issued for Green, Rock, and

Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin. Both mean conditions will be favorable once again for any fire to quickly become out of control due to the dry vegetation and gusty southwest winds. Please avoid any outdoor burning Thursday afternoon and evening. And be mindful of any sparks or flames, as those could cause fires. 

Moisture and cloud cover will both be on the increase for Friday before rain moves in Saturday. 

Unseasonably warm pattern breaks by the weekend

 

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon warmed into the low 80s making it feel more like mid-July rather than mid-April. While the record high temperature still stands for April 12th for Rockford, we did come close with a high of 81 degrees.

Thursday is likely to be a repeat of Wednesday, gusty southwest winds and temperatures warming into the low 80s. Thursday's record high is 83 degrees set back in 2006. To put this into perspective, our average high temperature is 59 degrees.

The warmth continues into Friday, and even Saturday, but some big changes are coming with a strong cold front that'll move in late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Moisture will slowly begin to increase both Friday and Saturday leading to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures should still be able to warm into the mid and upper 70s. A strong low-pressure system will develop across the Plains, moving into the Midwest Friday afternoon and evening. The cold front will still be west of the Mississippi River Saturday afternoon, allowing some instability to build across the Stateline late in the day. As the front moves closer, showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, moving in late afternoon and evening.

The strongest dynamics aloft stay southwest of the Stateline, but a strong to severe thunderstorm or two will remain possible locally. Wind would most likely be our biggest threat. This will be something we need to keep an eye on going into Saturday afternoon.

The cold front will pass early Sunday with temperatures falling through the afternoon. Northwest winds will be strong, making it feel quite the opposite of the weather we are currently experiencing. Temperatures on Sunday will remain in the 40s, but we should see the 50s return by next week.

  

UPDATE: Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday

 

Green, Rock, and Walworth counties have been added to the Fire Weather Watch that'll go into effect Wednesday late morning, lasting through evening.

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon are expected to warm into the upper 70s and low 70s. At the same time, southwest winds could gust as high as 35 mph. This could bring relative humidity values down as low as 20 percent during the afternoon.

The combination of dry vegetation, low relative humidity, and strong winds will create conditions that are favorable for fires to rapidly spread. The fire risk will be highest Wednesday as wind speeds will decrease some Thursday. Moisture will increase Friday ahead of a showers and thunderstorms Saturday.

Be sure to limit, or avoid, any outdoor burning Wednesday.

  

Updated tornado count from Friday, March 31st

 

Damage surveys continue following the severe weather that swept through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Friday, March 31st. A couple additional tornadoes have been confirmed, with a few areas still needing to be surveyed. The National Weather Service will continue to survey damage that occurred in northwest Winnebago County from Pecatonica, Durand, Shirland, Rockton, and South Beloit, as well as in DeKalb and Rochelle.

The latest: an EF-1 tornado touched down 3 miles east/southeast of Lanark in Carroll County, moving northeast into northwest Ogle County before eventually ending about 3 miles west/northwest of Baileyville. This tornado had peak wind gusts of 100 mph and was on the ground for 11.1 miles. It had a path width of 200 yards. It caused extensive damage to several farm buildings and also downed a few trees on its path.

The tornado that touched down in Machesney Park traveled to Roscoe and was on the ground for 8.7 miles. It was rated an EF-1 with peak wind gusts of 100 mph. It had a path width of 300 yards. This tornado began at the southwest intersection of Elmwood Rd and Rockton Avenue and tracked northeast. This tornado caused damage to several trees and outbuildings, as well as multiple homes, which primarily had suffered roof damage. A couple homes did have their roofs removed where the tornado was at its peak intensity with winds of 90-100 mph.

The Caledonia/Poplar Grove tornado traveled 25.6 miles from where it started in Boone County, moving into Walworth County in southeast Wisconsin. It had peak wind gusts of 95 mph and a path width of 150 yards. It started 4 miles west/southwest of Poplar Grove moving northeast before ending 2 miles northeast of Delavan Lake, WI. The most extensive damage was to a farm east of Caledonia on IL-173.

For more on the tornadoes that touched down that night in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, as well as additional damage that occurred, click on the links below:

Wisconsin

Northwest Illinois

Northern Illinois

Elevated fire risk this week

 

As temperatures continue to warm this week, the threat for quickly spreading fires also increases. Both relative humidity values and dew point temperatures will drop this week, specifically Wednesday and Thursday.

As a result, this could elevate the fire risk both days as southwest winds increase. The combination of warm temperatures, gusty winds and low relative humidity values could allow fires to spread quickly. Because of this, you'll want to limit any outdoor burning, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

'Rex' block brings summer-like warmth to the Stateline

 

A 'rex' block has nothing to do with dinosaurs (as exciting as that may sound). It's actually an upper-level blocking pattern that features high pressure north of low pressure.

A trough of low pressure will pass through the Midwest and Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. This will cause clouds to thicken up through Sunday evening, lasting into Monday. As the trough passes through the Great Lakes a cut-off low will develop, closing off from the main flow of the jet stream.

This low will settles across the southern U.S., remaining fairly stationary throughout the week. In turn, it causes a northward shift in the jet stream allowing temperatures to warm well above average. Blocking patterns tend to remain fairly stationary for several days until something comes along and breaks the block. This break in our pattern looks to come by the end of the week and next weekend.

Highs throughout this week will warm into the 70s,

perhaps even close to 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. By the end of the week, we'll settle back to a little more seasonable pattern with temperatures in the 50s/60s, but it may be short-lived. Highs the following week look to warm back into the 70s. 

Sunshine continues into Easter weekend

 

Skies were filled with plenty of sunshine Thursday afternoon, warming temperatures into the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds were a bit on the breezy side, however, holding chills just a few degrees cooler. Winds will gradually ease following sunset, turning light after Midnight. Overnight lows will once again cool down into the upper 20s.

High pressure remains the dominant weather feature through Easter weekend, warming temperatures each day. Highs on Friday will rise to the upper 50s, low 60s on Saturday, and upper 60s on Sunday. We may see a little more cloud cover as a warm front lingers over the Midwest Friday and Saturday, but conditions are expected to remain dry. Cloud cover may continue to increase Sunday ahead of a cold front that'll sweep through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Monday afternoon.

Moisture is fairly limited with the front, so outside of a brief passing shower Monday, skies will remain dry. Temperatures on Monday will warm to the upper 60s. A strong ridge of high pressure moving through the Plains and Midwest next week will help warm temperatures into the mid and upper 70s beginning next Tuesday. It's likely that warmth will last through next weekend, possibly coming close to 80 degrees! The pattern looks to change, though, during the following week as temperatures look to settle closer to where they should be (low 60s) by the middle of the month.