Continued Warmth, Elevated Fire Risk Tuesday

Continued Warmth:

Like Father's Day, Juneteenth featured plenty of sun with temperatures in the upper 80s. Expect more of the same today, with winds blowing out of the east-northeast this afternoon. 

Dew point temperatures remain low, resulting in comfortable humidity. However, that in combination with today's breeze will elevate the fire risk for some. To avoid spreading fires, please limit or postpone any outdoor burning during the day. But if you have plans to be outdoors, make sure to have the sunscreen with you as the UV index sits at a 9 of 11. It will only take 30 minutes for signs of sunburn to show if precautions aren't taken! 

First Day of Summer:

More sunshine is in the works for the first day of summer. But expect a few fair-weather cumulus clouds to pop-up by the afternoon. Those with lung/heart issues, young children, older adults, and who exercise frequently may have to limit time outdoors as the air quality is expected to worsen. Mainly due to ozone and a bit of wildfire smoke drifting into our atmosphere. Highs will once again fall short of the 90° mark by a degree or two. 

Staying Warm & Dry:

The upper-level ridge will continue its dominance into the second half of the work week. Thursday and Friday are expected to remain dry, with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s. 

Ahead of our next cold front, winds will turn more out of the south and southwest for Saturday, resulting in what will likely be our next 90-degree day. 

It seems that the ridging aloft will continue to keep a grip on our atmosphere into the weekend, leaving Saturday mainly dry. However, models do show a low drifting to our north, sliding it's associated cold front through sometime Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms with it. As of this moment, details about how much rain is uncertain. But I'm sure we will welcome it with open arms, considering this June is sitting 6th for driest on record with a whopping rainfall total of 0.37". Fingers crossed!

Elevated fire risk for some Tuesday

 

The ongoing drought continues to fuel the warmth being felt across the region. Temperatures Monday warmed into the middle and upper 80s, with this pattern expected to continue for the next several days.

The heat and lack of rainfall have also had an impact on the drought, which is likely to get worse before getting any better. The dry ground and lack of any deep gulf moisture has kept dew point temperatures (and humidity) low over the last several weeks. It also means that we haven't had much rainfall.

Northeast winds are expected to increase slightly during the day Tuesday, gusting 20-25 mph. The drier air mass, gusty winds, and high heat will lead to an elevated fire risk for some during the afternoon. Please limit any outdoor burning during the day Tuesday as relative humidity values are forecast to fall below 40% throughout the day.  

Dry & Warm Week Ahead, Summer Begins Wednesday

Dry Stretch Continues:

If you had any plans this past weekend, whether it was attending Old Settlers Days or celebrating Father's Day, the weather cooperated big-time. Both Saturday and Sunday featured quite a bit of sunshine, with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s. 

However, with mother nature leaving us high and dry, our rainfall deficit continues to worsen. According to the record books, the 0.37" that the Rockford Airport has picked up since the 1st is the 6th driest on record. Looking at the week ahead, a blocking ridge of high pressure sets up over the midsection of the lower 48. For the Stateline, this keeps our weather pattern warm and dry. 

Monday begins with some cloud cover thanks to a weak area of low-pressure spinning over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. As the low slowly spirals away from the area, clouds will give way to more sunshine as we enter the afternoon hours. That, along with a easterly wind, will make for a comfortably warm start to the work week, with highs. in the upper 80s.

 

Skies will remain mostly clear overnight, allowing temperatures to fall in the low 60s. Ahead of the morning commute, patchy fog may form. Tuesday will basically be a repeat of today as ridging aloft remains in control. 

Winds Tuesday will be blowing more out of the east-northeast, keeping our humidity levels comfortable ahead of the seasonal switch. We officially make the switch to summer Wednesday at 9:57AM.

Drought Worsens:

Towards the late-week/weekend time frame, models do show our rain chances increasing slightly. A very low chance Friday and Saturday, with possibly our highest chance coming in on Sunday as a low dives towards the region from the northwest. 

It's definitely something to monitor. But with it being a good 5 to 7 days out, changes are likely. Fingers crossed that the trend holds! 

Sunny Saturday, Low Shower Chance for Father's Day

Sunny Saturday:

Friday morning's cloud cover thinned out to sun-filled skies, resulting in a extremely comfortable end to the work week. Father's Day weekend kicks off with just as much sunshine thanks to high pressure sitting over the Great Lakes. This, along with today's light east to southeasterly wind will help temperatures climb back above mid-June standards, with most peaking in the low 80s. Despite the small uptick in our temperatures, humidity remains comfortable.

Father's Day:

Our lone rain opportunity over the next 7 days comes Sunday evening as a weak low-pressure system slides across southern Illinois. This will increase our cloud cover into the afternoon, with a chance for a few spotty showers arriving later on in the day. Forecast models continue to keep the highest coverage west of the Mississippi River, but a few isolated showers remain possibly into Sunday evening. Highs will continue to trend upward in the mid 80s.

Feeling Summer-Like:

We officially make the jump into summer Wednesday morning at 9:57AM CDT, and boy will it ever feel like summer. A "blocking" ridge of high pressure will set up over the central U.S early next week, resulting in a jump in our temperatures and humidity. 

Highs Monday through Wednesday are set to peak in the upper 80s, with low 90s more than likely both Thursday and Friday. Not only will this ridge make it feel a bit more like summer, but it will also do it's job in "blocking" any chance for rain during this stretch. It's possible we may see a better shot at some rainfall sometime next weekend. But with it being 6 to 7 days out, the forecast will likely change.

Comfortable Friday Ahead, Mainly Dry For Father's Day Weekend

Comfortable Friday:

Weather headlines locally on Thursday were all tied to the amount of wildfire smoke in our atmosphere. The smoke was so thick that visibility was impacted (especially around the time the cold front came through), air quality worsened, and highs for most struggled to reach the 80° mark. Thankfully, the highest concentration of smoke today will be focused more in areas to our south and west. Meaning, impacts won't be as high. 

But if your routine takes you out the door early, grab a light jacket. Temperatures this morning are starting out considerably cooler than Thursday morning, with most sitting in the upper 40s. 

High pressure sitting over the Great Lakes will keep skies dry from start to finish. With winds coming off of Lake Michigan, expect highs to land in a similar range to yesterday, in the upper 70s and low 80s. A few clouds stick around overnight, with temperatures falling back into the low 50s.

Father's Day Weekend:

With high pressure sitting overhead, another day of sunshine is on tap for Saturday Temperatures should warm nicely, inching closer to the mid 80s. Forecast models then continue to show a weak disturbance tracking to the south of the region on Sunday. 

This will bring a few more clouds along with the slightest chance of a light few showers. Even an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The temperature climb continues, with most peaking around the mid 80 Father's Day afternoon. As a ridge of high pressure strengthens in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the temperature climb will continue into next week. Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will end up rather close to the 90-degree mark.

Smokey Skies Hang Tight, Father's Day Weekend Trending Drier

Smoky Skies Return:

Wednesday's isolated rain chance didn't pan out. However, we did see quite a bit of wildfire smoke blanket our skies throughout the day. 

Same ordeal for Thursday. But this time around, the smoke filtering in today is part of a thicker plume, meaning it will have a slightly higher impact on visibility and air quality. 

As of this morning, the Illinois EPA has not issued an Air Quality Alert for our counties in northern Illinois. Our three counties up in southern Wisconsin on the other hand has been placed under an Air Quality Alert until 12PM. To be safe, those with heart and lung conditions, the young, and the elderly should limit time outdoors.  

Other than the wildfire smoke, today looks to be a rather pleasant day. One that features a mix of clouds and sunshine, comfortable humidity, and seasonable temperatures with most peaking in the low 80s. 

A backdoor cold front sneaking in from the northeast may spark up an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon or evening. However, this looks to be more for areas along and south of Interstate 88. Partly cloudy skies stick around overnight, with lows falling back into the low 50. The cooler air filtering in behind today's front may be enough to drop a few spots into the upper 40s Friday morning. 

Old Settlers Days:

Again, take into account the air quality if you plan to attend the first day of Old Settlers Days. High pressure inching closer from the west will make for a sun-filled and comfortable Friday. Winds coming off the lake will bring our temperatures down by a few degrees, possibly into the upper 70s. 

Father's day weekend is trending drier, though we will keep a small chance for a few light showers on Father's Day itself. Highs start out in the low 80s, possibly peaking in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday. With the ridging to our west building back up during the Sunday-Monday time frame, this weekend's temperature climb aims to carry on into next week. 

Pattern Turns Drier, Warmer Ahead of Father's Day Weekend

Lack of Rainfall: 

As we've discussed previously, June is typically known as the 3rd wettest month of the year for the Rockford Area. Unfortunately, expansive troughing to the east has severely limited our potential for a soaking rainfall over the past few weeks.  

All in all, Rockford has only picked up 0.37" of rain since June 1st, making this June the 12th driest on record through the first 13 days. Don't get me wrong, Tuesday's rainfall was welcomed with open arms. However, it certainly wasn't enough to put a dent in ongoing drought situation. 

Isolated Chances:

Looking ahead, rain opportunities will be hard to come by as our weather pattern the next few days dries out. While an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon, most of our Wednesday will turn out dry under a mixed hazy sunshine. Highs are set to peak in the low 80s, but a northerly breeze will keep humidity at comfortable levels. More of the same is in the works for Thursday. 

The one feature we'll have to keep an eye on is a lake-enhanced cold front, which could spark off a non-severe thunderstorm or two during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to dominate, with temperatures warming nicely into the low to possibly mid 80s. Ridging higher up will fully dry out our atmosphere by Friday, resulting in a sun-filled but hazy end to the work week. 

For those who plan to attend Old Settlers Days or plan to celebrate Father's Day, this weekend looks dry for the most part. The only chance for rain comes in the form a few light showers late Saturday night, which may extend into early Sunday as a weak low passes to our south! Highs remain in the low 80s, climbing into the mid to upper 80s early next week.