Scattered light mix today, 40s return Wednesday

It's hard to believe that we're about to hit the 5 year mark since a dangerously cold arctic air-mass left Rockford with an all-time record low.

I'm happy to say that 5 years later, there are no signs of such an air-mass becoming part of the forecast. In fact, winter won't be participating much as we jump into the first few days of February. 

The only sign of winter will come today in the form of a weak clipper system. This will keep skies mostly cloudy as well as introduce a small chance for a few light mixed showers into the early-evening. Impacts to your daily routine will be low considering how mild we have been over the past week. 

Any chance for a mixed shower should fully come to a close near or shortly after midnight, leaving us dry but mostly cloudy overnight.

Wednesday features a mark that Rockford hasn't seen since the end of December, highs at or above the 40-degree mark. In fact, a blocking pattern setting up aloft in the atmosphere will help keep the 40-degree weather around into next week. 

Overnight lows during this stretch will also come in well-above average, landing in the low 30s. Along with the unseasonably mild temperatures comes a better shot at some sunshine as this blocking pattern will help keep any disturbances away.

Clouds and fog keep steady, but above average, temperatures

 

The spread in temperatures from morning lows to afternoon highs has been rather small over the last week. This has been due to the abundance of cloud cover and dense fog. The average high temperature for late January is 29 degrees, and the average low is 14 degrees. Highs the last week have been in the middle to upper 30s, but overnight lows have been well above average in the low 30s.

This warmth has also helped to accelerate the snow melt over the last several days. The spread in temperatures will continue to remain small the next few days with clouds and fog sticking around through at least Wednesday.

By the middle to end of the week high temperatures will warm even further as a strong blocking pattern takes shape across the middle of the country. This will allow unseasonable warmth to continue to build with afternoon highs by the middle to end of the week warming into the middle to upper 40s! Winds will shift to the northeast by the weekend, but high temperatures are likely to remain in the 40s during the time.

Dense Fog Advisory expanded to include more of northern Illinois

In a similar fashion to the past couple of mornings, the threat for Dense Fog exists. 

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY is in place for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, Dekalb, Jo-Daviess, Carroll, Stephenson, and Whiteside County in N. Illinois as well as Green and Rock County up in S. Wisconsin until 10AM. Up until then, visibility will likely be sitting at a 1/4 mile or less. 

If you plan to be out and about, take it slow and travel with extra caution. Also, be on the lookout for slick spots, especially on back roads, bridges, and overpasses. Temperatures ahead of the morning commute are sitting either at or below the 32°, which would make for freezing fog. Again, freezing fog is consisted of "supercooled" water droplets that can freeze instantly on any exposed surfaces.

With winds remaining light for much of the morning, fog may linger into the mid-day hours. Once the fog has fully lifted, the rest of Monday features a mostly cloudy sky with highs in the upper 30s. 

Our next system is then scheduled to arrive overnight into Tuesday in the form of a clipper system. With it will be a chance for a few scattered light rain showers Monday night, followed by a light mix of rain and wet snow throughout the day Tuesday. We shouldn't expect accumulations with this upcoming chance and with road temperatures being too warm, travel impacts will be low. 

 

Quickly behind the clipper system will be a ridge of high pressure which will help dry out the forecast for Wednesday. With winds being more out of the south and southwest, expect high to peak in the upper 30s and for some low 40s. This spike in temperatures is very well expected to continue into Thursday as we await the arrival of our next cold front.

Locally dense fog possible Sunday night

 

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has once again been issued for Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties beginning at Midnight and lasting through 9am Monday. The fog was quick to clear Sunday thanks to drier air moving in and an increasing wind from the northwest. For the first time in nearly a week visibility area wide made it to 10 miles - which is considered unlimited/full visibility. We even managed to clear some of the cloud cover allowing sunshine to shine bright for a couple hours earlier in the day.

Cloud cover, however, was quick to build back in leaving skies mostly cloudy Sunday evening. Fog has been developing well to the west of the Stateline in Iowa along the back edge of the thicker cloud cover, and it's likely we'll see at least partial clearing take place locally overnight. Wherever we do, temperatures will drop into the 20s, low 20s for some, and fog will redevelop. This is why the dense fog advisory has been issued. It's possible the advisory gets extended further to the east tonight, but there is still a big enough question on clearing to hold off on issuing one right now.

Freezing fog will also be possible and could create some slick conditions, especially on elevated surfaces Monday morning. Some of the fog may lift by Monday afternoon with a little sunshine trying to appear once again. But clouds will be on the increase again ahead of a clipper-like system that'll swing through the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring with it our next chance for a few light rain showers Monday night, mixed in with some snow showers throughout the day Tuesday. No accumulations are expected, but a few heavier bursts of snow showers will be possible.

Quick clipper Tuesday brings light mix/snow showers

Following the potential for locally dense fog Monday morning, skies will remain mostly cloudy for much of Monday afternoon as temperatures only warm to the mid-30s. Still above average, just as it has been for the last several days. In fact, there hasn't been much of a temperature spread since early last week between daytime highs and nighttime lows thanks to the clouds and fog. That'll change by the end of the week when we see a few overnight lows dip into the 20s.

Winds will turn to the southwest Monday evening ahead of a cold front that'll slip across the western Great Lakes early Tuesday. This front is tied to an area of low pressure that'll move across Lake Michigan and into northern Indiana Tuesday evening. There isn't much moisture with the front, but colder temperatures moving in aloft will allow a light wintry mix to develop late Monday night. Surface temperatures above 32 degrees should limit any freezing rain potential, but there may some light freezing rain through early Tuesday.

As the colder air settles in Tuesday afternoon a few snow showers will be possible. While no accumulations are expected, a few bursts of heavier snow can't be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures Tuesday will warm into the middle 30s. We'll hang on to the cloud cover for the afternoon Wednesday with highs back in the upper 30s.  

Showers continue, mainly dry weekend ahead

Rockford, Rochelle, and DeKalb were able to pick up .20" to .30" from last night's rainfall.This did limit the potential for dense fog in those areas. 

However, a section of the Stateline which includes Jo-Daviess, Whiteside, Stephenson, and Carroll County remain under a Dense Fog Advisory. This will run until 10AM this morning and up until then, visibility will rapid fluctuate between locations.

Rain from overnight did taper off a bit as we inched closer to the morning commute. 

Despite that, I would still have your umbrella with you as on and off showers will be possible until we hit the late-morning hours. That's when forecast models introduce a more widespread area of light rain showers, with chances remaining rather likely into the first few hours of the afternoon. 

Rain will taper off ahead of the evening commute and once it does, our attention for the 4th time this week turn to the potential for dense fog. Visibility Friday night into Saturday morning could drop to 1/4 mile or less.

After this storm system departs, a slightly stronger system will approach the region over the weekend. For the most part, models keep this system well south enough to where most if not all of the rainfall will occur to our south and east.

Because of that, much of the weekend will remain dry with skies remaining cloudy. High temperatures won't change much from what we've had this week, peaking in the mid to upper 30s.

Steady, widespread rain follows morning dense fog

For the second consecutive morning, dense fog alerts cover much of the central United States. Of course, that does include N. Illinois and S.Wisconsin.

Visibility up until the expiration of the advisory will likely be sitting at a 1/4 mile or less. Travel with caution if you're out and be aware that visibility will rapidly fluctuate between locations. We may also see some drizzle and mist as we await the arrival of the steadier, more widespread rain that is expected to move in during the afternoon.

Rain chances begin to ramp up shortly before the evening commute, remaining likely overnight into daybreak Friday morning. 

During the overnight hours, it's not out of the question with the amount of atmospheric moisture in place that the steady rain could feature a few heavy downpours. Some fog will likely develop as the main round of showers begins to taper off. 

Rainfall totals for most will land in the .5"-.75" range. While some of the rain will be absorbed by the current snow pack, melting will continue which could lead to more runoff as we jump into the weekend. 

Aside from a slim shower chance Saturday night into Sunday morning, much of the upcoming weekend will remain dry but cloudy. High temperatures will continue to peak in the upper 30s.