Unseasonably mild stretch carries on into the first full week of February

This year's edition of the "fake spring" season is on a roll as the Rockford Airport has observed record warmth in 2 of February's first 4 days! 

The same upper-level ridge that has resulted in this incredibly warm and record-breaking air remains in control for the first few days of week. However, there are signs of a pattern change, one that will help bring temperatures down by the weekend.

A northeast pull off of Lake Michigan will help bring a little moisture inland. This may pave the way for a round of dense fog to form, especially for areas along and east of interstate 39. 

If you plan to be out and about this morning, take it slow if you do happen to encounter any reduction in visibility. As of this writing, areas across northeast Illinois have been placed under a dense fog advisory, which does include McHenry County. Any fog that does develop should linger into the late-morning hours, with skies slowly turning partly cloudy for the afternoon. Temperatures will end up a smidge cooler than Sunday thanks to this northeasterly flow, landing in the mid 40s. 

Dense fog will once again become a concern overnight into Tuesday morning as we continue to see moisture being pulled off of Lake Michigan. 

In a similar fashion to today, fog should linger into the mid to late-morning hours. Skies will turn partly cloudy by Tuesday afternoon, allowing highs to soar into the upper 40s, close to 50°.

 

Record high temperatures will again be in jeopardy as highs are expected to reach the low 50s Wednesday afternoon. As of this morning, we have a high of 52° in the forecast, which is the record high for February 7th set back in 2009.  

Highs will fall short of our record high of 58° (1990) Thursday afternoon. However, our forecast high of 56° lands 25° above early-February standards. 50s continue into Friday before a cold front helps bring cooler air in for the weekend. 

This air-mass, which originates from Alaska, will bring temperatures down into the low 40s for Saturday, then upper 30s for Sunday afternoon. Normal highs at this point are usually in the low 30s.

Another record in the books Sunday

 

We're only four days into the month of February but temperatures have felt more like early April with now two record highs in the books. The above average trend is expected to continue through the upcoming week.

Highs on Sunday warmed into the middle to upper 40s, and low 50s, with Rockford's high reaching 52 degrees. This breaks the previous record high of 49 degrees set back in 1962 and 1973. If you remember, we also broke a record high temperature on the first of February when the mercury climbed to 55 degrees. And while Friday and Saturday weren't record highs, temperatures were still a good 10-20 degrees above average.

As we head into Sunday evening, we'll see a few clouds from time to time. Overnight low temperatures are likely to fall into the upper 20s/low 30s, which is still well above average for the beginning of the month. Fog will be possible both tonight and Monday night, but fog may be a little more noticeable Monday night with lighter winds.

High temperatures for the first full week of the month will warm into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s, coming close to record highs Wednesday - Friday. The forecast during that time: Wednesday: 51 degrees (record 52 degrees set back in 2009), Thursday: 55 degrees (record 58 degrees set back in 1990), and Friday: 49 degrees (record 54 degrees set back in 1925).

Record high Thursday afternoon

 Sunshine Thursday afternoon warmed temperatures into the mid-50s, with Rockford's high reaching 55 degrees. That warmth broke the record high temperature for February 1st for Rockford. The previous record was 48 degrees set back in 1922 and 1968.

The average high temperature for the beginning of February is 30 degrees, so temperatures Thursday were 20-25 degrees ABOVE average. It felt more like

early April, rather than early February. The above average trend will continue for the next several days, with possibly a couple more 50 degrees days by the end of next week. However, that does look to come with a chance for some rain showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two heading into next weekend. 

January's mild end carries on into the few days of February

The first month of 2024 is in the books. To recap, the month of January was an busy but gloomy one. 

A very active storm track during the midsection of the month left Rockford with above-average numbers in both the snowfall and rainfall departments.  

February kicks off with similar average highs, with values ending up near 40° towards the end of the month. Snowfall-wise, a smidge lower than January as February typically produces 8.5".  

Unfortunately, January's cloudy trend isn't likely going to budge as we move into February. A weak backdoor cold front is to help blanket our skies during the early stages of our Thursday, with clouds staying put during the afternoon and evening.

On a more positive note, we do keep the mild air that rounded out the month of January. Highs ahead of today's cold front will peak in the low 40s, marking the 3rd consecutive 40° day.  

Clouds are expected to stick around overnight and at into the mid-day hours Friday. In a similar fashion to Wednesday, models show clouds breaking apart late in the day, resulting in some sun. 

High temperatures fall back a few degrees however thanks to the northeasterly flow that sets up behind today's frontal passage. 

Ridging aloft will keep the dry and mild weather pattern into the weekend, with highs peaking in the mid 40s. Not much change is expected as we roll into next week as this ridge remains over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions!

Sunshine returns Wednesday afternoon

It took a little while, but sunshine returned Wednesday afternoon giving temperatures a little boost back into the 40s. 

Southwest winds will continue into the evening, remaining breezing through the overnight. This will help keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Under the mostly clear sky, it's possible we do see some areas of fog develop as clouds slowly increase Thursday morning and afternoon.

The increase in cloud cover will be the result of an incoming cold front. That front will move through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois mid-afternoon Thursday. As it does, winds will shift to the northeast with cloud cover likely lasting into the evening.

Temperatures on Thursday will depend on just how fast clouds move in. A slower return of the cloud cover means temperatures have the potential to warm into the upper 40s. If clouds come in a little sooner, we'll likely remain in the low 40s. Regardless, temperatures will still remain above average through early next week.  

February to begin on a unseasonably warm note

Cloud cover Tuesday limited our full potential to efficiently warm, but the Rockford Airport still was able to squeeze in a 40-degree high. 

In better news, similar warmth is to be expected as we close the books on January and begin February. 

Clouds kick off the final day of January, with a quick decrease in cloud cover occurring as we approach the mid-morning hours. This, along with southwesterly wind will allow temperatures to reach the low 40s for the second consecutive day.

Skies remain partly cloudy overnight, with lows falling into the low 30s. Clouds will then be quick to blanket our skies by mid-day Thursday as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north-northeast. 

Despite the upward trend in cloud cover, flow out of the southwest should continue into the late-afternoon and early-evening hours. This will allow highs to peak in the mid to upper 40s. 

With the little to no atmospheric moisture to work with, Thursday's backdoor cold front will slide through dry. However. it will shift our surface flow to the north and northeast for Friday. This will likely drop high temperatures a few degrees, rounding out the week in the low 40s. 

As previously discussed, a strong blocking ridge of high pressure is to set up over the central U.S. This will keep our weather pattern extremely dry and mild as we jump into February. 

High temperatures over the weekend are to peak near the 50-degree mark, with low to mid 40s in the works for the beginning of next week. 

While this type of weather pattern will help river levels in the long run, flooding is possible along the Rock River in the short term. 

Mainly due to ice jams. A flood advisory is in effect until 10:45AM for the portion of the Rock that lies near the Grand Detour area. 

Minor flooding has been observed upstream in the White Oak subdivision west of the Grand Detour area. A Flood Watch is in effect for the portion of the Rock that lies near the small town of Como. This will be in place until further notice as ice jams may cause flooding concerns into the first week of February. Those who are placed under the flood watch are to monitor river levels closely and take action if flooding occurs.

Highs Tuesday reach 40 degrees

 

Despite the cloud cover Tuesday afternoon high temperatures warmed into the upper 30s, with a few locations hitting the 40-degree mark. This is the first 40-degree high temperature for Rockford so far this year, and the first 40-degree high temperature since the end of December 2023.

Clouds will stick around through the night as overnight lows dip into the upper 20s. Wednesday will feature a cloudy start, but we skies should clear by the afternoon. The faster the cloud cover clears, the warmer afternoon temperatures will get. If, however, clouds are slow to clear then highs are likely to remain in the 30s.

A backdoor cold front moving in from the northeast Thursday will shift the southwest wind from Wednesday afternoon to the northeast. This will also give us a little more cloud cover for the afternoon. Temperatures, however, should still warm into the 40s. Highs Saturday and Sunday could even come close to 50 degrees, depending on the cloud cover.

Strong winds in the jet stream will move across northern Mexico late in the week. This will help carve

out a ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes and Midwest this weekend. The ridge will hold strong through the weekend and into next week which will help keep temperatures well above average through the first full week of February. We may begin to see a little bit of a pattern change after the 8th or 9th of the month which could feature temperatures returning back close to average (low 30s) during that time.