Fourth Forecast: Dry hours expected, but isolated thunderstorms possible

 

Mother Nature may provide her own fireworks for some across the Midwest Thursday as showers and thunderstorms will be likely, some of which could impact parts of the Stateline.

For the rest of Wednesday evening skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the low 80s. A gradual increase in cloud cover can be expected through the night as overnight lows dip into the upper 60s.

Thursday morning and most of the afternoon will remain dry, but a few showers are possible south of the area as the back edge of an upper-level disturbance moves through southern Illinois. Cloud cover will thin for the afternoon, helping temperatures warm into the mid and upper 80s. By late afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop in Minnesota ahead of low pressure, moving into central and southern Wisconsin. Most of this activity will remain north and outside of the immediate viewing area, but an isolated shower/storm can't completely be ruled out over far northwest Illinois.

Showers may become a little more scattered ahead of a cold front Thursday evening, moving across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through 9pm/10pm. There also remains a risk of an isolated thunderstorm with any shower that does form.

There have been some changes to the severe weather outlook for Thursday, most notably shifting the 'marginal risk' further east into Illinois and southern Wisconsin. A 'slight risk' has been added for parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. I think overall our risk for thunderstorm coverage, and severe storms at that, remains low, but there a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the 9pm/10pm time frame. Be sure to keep a watchful eye on the radar if you're planning on being out for the fireworks. And be prepared to seek shelter indoors if lightning is around. Shower and storm coverage will then increase as the cold front moves through overnight Thursday.  

Keep the radar handy for fourth of July celebrations

The Stateline dodged another bullet yesterday as a majority of the severe and flash flooding threat stayed west of the Mississippi River. 

Rainfall totals ranged from a whopping 1.8" in Galena to just over 1/4" in Rockford. With the frontal boundary responsible for yesterday's rainfall now located to our south, rain chances get a kick to the curb for the middle of the work week.  

Cloud cover early on will somewhat clear, leaving us partly cloudy for the afternoon. A light westerly wind will be present throughout the day, allowing highs to climb into the upper 80s. Along with the uptick in temperatures comes an uptick in humidity, so expect it to feel muggy this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and muggy conditions hang tight overnight, with temps falling into the upper 60s.
 

Independence Day is trending drier, though we may run into the chance for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms towards the evening. If you are heading downtown for the Fireworks extravaganza or have other plans to celebrate America's birthday, keep a close tab on the forecast.  

 

Moisture increases overnight into Friday as our next storm system spirals into northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin. This will allow rain and storm chances to extend into our Friday, with chances best during the morning hours. Temperatures cool a bit to round out the work week, landing in the upper 70s, closer to 80° mark.
 

Active weather returns Tuesday evening

 

Showers and isolated thunderstorms were with most of the Stateline Tuesday morning, but as a warm front nears late Tuesday afternoon skies are now beginning to clear. With that, temperatures are warming through the low 80s across northern Illinois, with the low 70s to the north.

The next hour or two remains dry but a line of thunderstorms in eastern Iowa will move closer to northwest Illinois between 6pm-7pm, impacting most of the region around sunset.

A Tornado Watch has been issued for Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties until 9pm Tuesday evening, however, the higher tornado threat will remain west of the Mississippi River. Any storm that does reach severe limits locally will likely be capable of producing strong wind gusts. The greatest risk for any strong to severe storms will remain west of I-39.

What may end up being a bigger concern with any storms will be the risk of heavy rain. A Flood Watch has been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties in northwest Illinois, and for Green County in southwest Wisconsin until early Wednesday. 

The warm front now beginning to lift closer to the Stateline will also bring with it a rapid increase in moisture, leading to periods of heavy rainfall with any storm that moves through. This will lead to rainfall totals nearing one inch (if not over) in some locations. Rainfall totals will be a little less east of I-39.

The cold front clears the region Wednesday morning with sunshine returning for the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the mid and upper 80s.   

Storm chances return Tuesday, low severe risk for some

The last two days have been nothing but perfect 10 out of 10s in my opinion. 

Sure, the Stateline was subjected to more cloud cover Monday afternoon. However, this left highs for the 2nd consecutive day in the low to mid 70s, which lands 5° to 10° below average.

Tuesday is starting off on a different note as we see two rain opportunities move in this morning. The first will be around sunrise. The second arrives in the form of a decaying cluster of showers and thunderstorms, which may feature more in the way of heavier downpours as they pass on through during the mid to late morning hours. Overall, severe weather potential this morning is rather low.

Skies turn partly sunny after mid-day, allowing highs to climb back into the low 80s. Along with the uptick in temperatures comes an uptick in humidity as dew point values sit in the low 60s. 

Clouds are quick to gather into the evening as a round of showers and storms slide in from the west. These will bring the low risk for severe weather, especially for those along and east of I-39. 

Storms that remain strong to severe will be capable of strong winds and large hail. Rain chances wind down as we approach the morning commute Wednesday, leaving areas west of Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling may pick up 1"-2" of rain. Areas east of that line may pick up .25" to .75".

Skies will somewhat clear, resulting in a partly cloudy sky for Wednesday afternoon. Despite a cold front coming through, high temperatures will end up warmer in the mid to upper 80s. 

This frontal boundary will play a key role into rain chances on the 4th of July as it looks to stall across central Illinois early Thursday. 

Forecast models then lift this boundary northward, resulting in scattered showers late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Chances were best along and south of I-88, though that will likely change as the Thursday approaches. If you have any 4th of July plans, stay up to date with the forecast. This somewhat active weather pattern will carry on into Friday as a weak low pressure system lifts into the western Great Lakes.

Hurricane Beryl becomes earliest category 5 on record

Hurricane Beryl continues to shatter records as it tracks across the Caribbean Sea. Overnight, NOAA's Hurricane Hunters found that Beryl’s max sustained winds have increased to 165 mph, making the storm a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. 

This is now the earliest category 5 on record, surpassing Hurricane Emily which reached category 5 strength on July 17th, 2005. 

Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Beryl gradually weaken as it encounters higher wind shear across the Caribbean. 

The entire Island of Jamaica has been placed under a hurricane warning while the southern shores of the Dominican Republic has been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning. Where Beryl goes from there is still up in the air, though she will still have to be monitored for a potential landfall in Mexico or in extreme southern Texas. 

Hurricane Beryl sets its "eye" on the Lesser Antilles

Hurricane Beryl has made history, becoming the first category 4 hurricane in June on record. After undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle overnight, Beryl is back up to category 4 status as it approaches the southern Islands of the Lesser Antilles. 

A look back at the history books shows one other tropical cyclone has passed within 100 miles of these Caribbean islands and that was category 3 Ivan back in 2004. This means these Islands have no experience with a category 4 hurricane in recorded history. This means these Islands have no experience with a category 4 hurricane in recorded history.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical storm warnings are in place for Martinique, Trinidad and St. Lucia. 

A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions are imminent and "preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion" within the warning area. 

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within 36 hours. Latest advisory shows Beryl will move across the southern Caribbean, eventually making landfall as a weaker hurricane in the Yucatan Peninsula sometime this weekend.

Refreshing start to July, storm chances return Tuesday

Thanks to a massive high pressure system sitting over the Great Lakes, the transition from June to July will be an easy one weather-wise.

July begins on a sun-filled note, with cloud cover increasing after mid-day. What also carries on into the new month is Sunday's seasonably cool air, which will leave highs in the upper 70s. And with dew points stuck in the upper 40s and low 50s, today will be another day to leave the A/C unit off.

Tuesday will be the day to have the umbrella and radar handy as rain chances slide back in. Forecast models show two rounds, the first sliding through during the mid-late morning hours. Heavy rain will be the primary concern as these push through.

The second will form out in southern and central Iowa, tracking east with time as we get into the late afternoon and evening hours. 

This round may bring the low chance for severe weather, which is why the Storm Prediction Center has areas east of Delavan, Belvidere, and Dekalb under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk. This is mainly for strong winds and large hail. Some of this activity may linger into the early stages of Wednesday, however most of the day looks to stay dry. 

Storm chances also look to be present on the 4th of July as another low pressure system slides across the midsection of the lower 48. 

Right now, it looks like chances are best during the late morning - early afternoon, with some dry time sliding in during the evening. Again, this forecast is subject to change as we inch closer to Thursday, so check back in if you have holiday plans. Highs will depend on how much cloud cover we see throughout the day, but most should land in the low 80s.