Rain chances to remain scattered ahead of Beryl's remnants

Ahead of hurricane Beryl's remnants, a slow-moving cold front will help elevate the chance for scattered showers and storms later today. 

Chances will be best early in the morning, then again in a scattered fashion from 3PM-8PM. Once we near sunset, we lose the heat gained during the day, which will allow showers to diminish. This will leave us dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, with lows falling into the mid 60s.

Similar coverage of showers and storms will be possible tomorrow ahead of the remnants of former Hurricane Beryl. Highs for the 2nd straight day will fall a degree or two below average.

 

 

After making landfall along the Texas coastline earlier this morning, an upper-level trough is expected to pick up Beryl's remnants and bring them into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. This scenario would leave the highest impacts and rainfall amounts well to the south of Rockford. Still, the track of Beryl's remnants will have to be monitored as any northward jump in the track will heighten our chances for rain, especially into Wednesday morning.

Behind this trough, a ridge of high pressure slides in resulting in less rain chances and more sunshine to round out the work week. But of course, the late-week sunshine will come with a price as some of the heat and humidity out west spills eastward, allowing highs to return to the 90s by Sunday.

Beryl makes landfall along the Texas coastline

Beryl's journey to a U.S landfall was a long one. But at 4AM, the National Hurricane Center confirmed Bary made landfall near Matagorda, Texas as a 80 mph category 1 hurricane. 

 

 

Prior to this morning, Beryl made two other landfalls across the Caribbean, one in the Lesser Antilles and another in the Yucatan Peninsula. 

 

 

 

Where does Beryl go from here? Forecast models show an upper-level trough picking up her remnants and shifting them through Arkansas, the Tennessee Valley, then into the Ohio Valley. The threat for flash flooding and tropically-induced tornadoes will be elevated along this path.
 

Tropical Storm Beryl's possible impacts in the Midwest

 With some rain chances over the next couple of days, those chances may continue into Wednesday and Thursday depending on the track of Tropical Storm Beryl as it makes landfall in Texas.

Tropical Storm Beryl or formulary Hurricane Beryl has been a historic storm already. This storm developed in a very early portion of the hurricane season and not only was it early, but it set the record for the earliest Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm hit such status over open waters however it did impact both Jamaica and the Caymen Islands at Category 4 intensity causing massive damage. Since then, the storm has hit the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and has started to jog north into the Gulf of Mexico and the Texas gulf coast.

Currently Tropical Storm Beryl is over the Gulf of Mexico expected to intensify slightly and impact Southeast Texas late Sunday into early Monday. Beryl will not reach the status it previously had however impacts will still be likely in Texas and portions of Louisiana.

After Beryl makes landfall, it is expected to weaken drastically over land however the low-pressure system associated with the storm is expected to move north into the Midwest. Ensemble model guidance agree on the center of the low tracking over Central and Eastern Illinois by the end of the week.

This is a unique situation as tropical storms don't always impact the region however with an upper-level jet stream pattern to the north the low-pressure system is able to move north without being ripped apart by upper-level wind shear. Although it will be weak, some rain potential seems like the most likely impact of this tropical system moving north.

 

Scattered rain and storm chances through Tuesday

It was a pleasantly warm day in the Stateline with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Despite a few very isolated showers, most remained dry through the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will fall back into the low 60s overnight under mostly clear skies, but rain chances begin to move in by the early morning. Scattered showers and a few embedded storms may push into Northwestern Illinois by ~8AM, with scattered showers on and off through the afternoon.

While we may see some dry time at points Sunday afternoon, additional rain and storms may develop into Sunday evening and night. Some of these storms may be on the stronger side, but I am not expecting widespread severe weather. Scattered showers and storms remain possible Monday as well, but once again, there will be some dry time during the afternoon. 

While Wednesday and Thursday look drier from some perspectives, we may need to watch the track of Tropical Storm Beryl as its remnants move through the Southeast and into the Ohio Valley. A large swath of heavy rain may be possible between Tuesday-Friday across the path of the then-tropical depression. This path has been trending a bit closer to our region over the last couple days, something to keep an eye on. The only direct impacts it would bring us this far North would be periods of steady rain during the middle of next week.

If Beryl were to make an approach on the region, it would likely bring steady rain in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame, with possibly a few embedded storms. Likewise, if we were to see widespread rain and clouds from Beryl's remnant, it would likely be cooler than currently forecast in that time span. For now, highs in the low-80s through Thursday with overnight lows in the 60s seems likely. There have been signs of a warming trend into next weekend, however, with a potential for upper 80s high temperatures to return to the forecast by next Sunday. 

How moisture will impact precipitation chances this week

 With a quick break in precipitation over the past couple days we can begin to look at how precipitation chances will trend through the next week.

After today, precipitation chances begin to increase through the early week which can be linked to plentiful atmospheric moisture staying over the region. However, past Wednesday moisture begins to move away and leaves us with drier conditions later this week.

First looking at Monday morning where moisture values are quite high with some upper-level winds in place over the region. With the sharp cutoff of moisture to the west in Iowa this shows a cold front moving in. As this cold front moves through along with moisture and some upper-level wind support, isolated shower and thunderstorm development seems likely Monday morning.

Tuesday again is another similar story with a boundary setting up in Western Illinois and Eastern Iowa allowing moisture to be lifted as it moves east and creating some precipitation chances.

However, after the boundary on Tuesday moves through some moisture sticks around Wednesday giving some isolated shower chances. However, most moisture is stunted to our south after Wednesday, so as we get towards the end of the week precipitation chances stay south.

Although precipitation will stay mainly isolated chances do stick around this week with a calmer pattern coming later this week with temperatures staying average.

 
 

Rain chances lower as we jump into the holiday weekend

Mother nature was ever so kind enough to hold off the chance for showers and storms until after the firework demonstrations concluded. 

Chances return in a widely-scattered fashion for Friday as low pressure slides across our neighboring state to the north. Keep that first warn weather app and radar handy if you have outdoor holiday plans. Highs will peak in the upper 70s.

The shower threat will quickly come to an end once we lose the heat accumulated during the daytime, leaving us mostly cloudy overnight. 

Clouds then are expected to give way to plenty of sun rather quickly, resulting in a delightful start to the weekend. Highs will end up close to where they topped out today, near the 80° mark.

High pressure will then slide into the central Great Lakes, allowing a slightly warmer and more humid conditions to filter in. As a result, clouds will be more in abundance on Sunday and the chance for showers gradually increases. It does seem that this will be the start of a somewhat active pattern as rain and storm chances will be present daily next week.

Fourth Forecast: Isolated t-storms possible this evening

It's one of those days where I wish we could swap out today's forecast with yesterday's weather. Wednesday featured nothing but sunshine, muggy conditions, and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. 

For the 4th, most of the day will be dry. However, it's towards the time when firework demonstrations get underway that mother nature may provide us with a few fireworks of her own.

Again, the vast majority of the daylight hours will feature dry conditions, though activity that develops to our west that may try to sneak in. 

Anything that does cross the Mississippi River will be spotty and more than likely weakening. High temperatures will once again peak in the upper 80s. Towards the evening, a cold front sliding in from the west will bring with it a slightly higher chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. 

Overall, the risk for severe weather is low. The Storm Prediction Center continued to keep the western half of the region, areas west of I-39, under a level 1 of 5 Marginal risk for strong winds, large hail, and heavy downpours. If you are heading downtown or to any other local firework displays, make sure to be weather aware and keep an eye on the radar.

The same low pressure system will then spiral to our north by Friday morning, continuing the chance for showers and storms into Friday afternoon. For now, these look to be non-severe. Temperatures trend a bit cooler thanks to the additional cloud cover, peaking in the upper 70s close to 80-degrees. 

Saturday and most of Sunday remain dry, with highs climbing back into the low 80s. Its not until Sunday night into Monday where mother nature provides us with our next best chance for storms.