Widely scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon

 

Showers and isolated thunderstorms moved through the region Tuesday morning and afternoon, with the latest round moving out of the viewing area. Additional thunderstorms, however, have developed along a boundary stretching from southeast Wisconsin down towards the Quad Cities. There, a remnant low pressure system has been producing widely scattered thunderstorms over west-central Illinois. Currently, there is a Flash Flood Warning for the far west-central portion of Whiteside County.

Through the rest of the afternoon and evening we'll likely see coverage grow from the ongoing activity, sliding across northern Illinois through the evening. However, a slightly more stable environment north of I-80 may limit the overall coverage locally. Any shower or storm that does move through will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, and perhaps a strong wind gust or two.

The ongoing cloud cover and rain showers have held afternoon temperatures down a bit from the forecast high, with most locations as of 3pm in the mid-70s. Temperatures have reached the 80s further west where more sunshine has been noted over the last few hours.

Any storms that do redevelop through the evening likely won't linger much past midnight, with skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will stay in the mid-60s and with a light wind and residual moisture there may be some patchy fog that develops.

Scattered storm chances return, severe weather not expected

Sunday's cold front "understood the assignment" by shoving some of the higher dew point values to our south and east, leaving us a smidge more comfortable for the beginning of the work week. 

Afternoon highs for most locales leveled off in the mid 80s and dew points peaked in the upper 60s, which is considered muggy but not miserable. While it may not have been enough to turn off the A/C, it was definitely a break from some of the higher heat and humidity we've had as of late.

Humidity levels rise a smidge moving forward which will also result in a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Starting with today, a weakening storm complex to our northwest may help ignite a widely scattered batch showers and storms for both Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon. Severe weather isn't expected, though heavy downpours are likely for those who encounter a storm. Temperatures Tuesday will all depend on the coverage of clouds and thunderstorms during the afternoon, but afternoon highs should warm into the low to mid 80s. 

High pressure building over the Great Lakes should result in a sunnier outlook for Wednesday. However, those closer to Lake Michigan could encounter an isolated sprinkle, shower, or thunderstorm as a lake breeze pushes inland. Isolated rain chances extend into Thursday, though rise Friday afternoon into Friday night as a storm system and it's associated warm front move in. These could have the potential for severe weather so make sure to stay up to date with the forecast in the coming days.

Isolated showers return Monday evening, Humidity increases Tuesday

 

It felt a little less humid Monday afternoon thanks to drier air following a cold front Sunday. Dew points dropped from the low 70s Sunday afternoon down into the low 60s Monday. And while it may not have been enough to turn off the A/C completely, it was definitely a break from some of the higher heat and humidity we've had as of late.

Similar to Sunday, temperatures Monday afternoon warmed into the mid 80s - with Rockford's high reaching 85 degrees. This follows a several day stretch of 90-degree heat last week. But as the old saying goes "all good things must come to an end" as the return of moisture from the west creeps back in Monday night and Tuesday.

That moisture has been fueling isolated showers and thunderstorms to our west Monday afternoon and evening, with a few of those showers moving into northwest Illinois. They've been on a weakening trend, however, and likely won't make much progress (if any) past Freeport, IL.

Our skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night as a couple of showers dot the skies from time to time. Overnight lows will fall into the low 60s. A weakening storm complex to our northwest may help ignite a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for both Tuesday morning, and then again Tuesday afternoon. Severe weather isn't expected. Temperatures Tuesday will depend on the coverage of clouds and thunderstorms during the afternoon, but highs should warm into the low to mid 80s.

Dew point temperatures, however, are expected to climb back into the upper 60s and remain in the mid and upper 60s through the end of the week.

  

Work week to begin on a comfortable, sun-filled note

Sunday's cold front thankfully put an end to the long hot stretch that began last Wednesday. Officially, 85° was the high in Rockford Sunday. 

Improvements will continue to spill for the start of the work week in as winds remain cool out of the north and northeast. Those changes can already be felt this morning as temperatures are sitting in the low 60s, with dew points sitting in the upper 50s.  

Sun-filled skies will allow temperatures to warm into the low 80s this afternoon. In fact, today's high of 84° is right on par with early-July standards. Now, depending on your threshold, it may be a day where you can turn the A/C unit off, open up those windows, and let some more comfortable air filter throughout the home! And also, it'll be a day to enjoy the outdoors. Conditions remain quiet overnight with temperatures falling into the low 60s, making for a nice start to our Tuesday. 

Higher levels of humidity will make a return Tuesday as winds turn more southerly. Dew points values will jump back near the 70° mark, though air temperatures won't change. Expect highs to end up in the mid-80s Tuesday under a partly cloudy sky. 

With the return of the humidity comes a slight uptick in rain and storm chances, with the first arriving late Tuesday morning. A secondary and scattered round will be possible Tuesday evening into the early stages of Tuesday night. Nothing severe, though some of the stronger showers and storms could produce heavy downpours. From there, temperatures will remain rather seasonable into the second half of the work week, with slim rain chances remaining in place. As of this moment however, no signs of a widespread or soaking rain in the near future.

Cold front to bring additional rain chance, cooler Monday

For the second day in a row, much-needed rainfall fell across northern Illinois. In fact, a few spots, including Rockford, Galena, and Monroe, wound up over 1/4" when it was all said and done. 

For those wanting a little more rainfall, our weather pattern remains somewhat unsettled for Sunday as a slow-moving cold front sweeps across the Stateline. Ahead of it's arrival, our radar is showing an scattered batch of showers, some heavier than others, sliding through around sunrise. 

This will be the nature of any rain chances that materializes today, scattered. The better chance for slightly more organized rain and even severe weather will be to our south and east. 

Combine that with a more north to northeast wind and we are looking at a noticeably cooler day. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid-80s, but dew points temperatures will stick to the upper 60s to lower 70s which will keep the humidity around.

Monday is looking more like a day for more outdoor activities rather than indoor! Behind the front, skies turn partly cloudy with afternoon highs ending up in the low 80s. Dew points will end up roughly 10 degrees below today's values, resulting in a much more comfortable afternoon. So please, get outside! Temperatures will get a little warmer for Tuesday, with highs landing in the upper 80s. 

A slim chance for rain also is in the works, though I do believe a slightly higher chance for a few showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday.
 

Thunderstorm chances through the weekend

 With another Independance Day passing yesterday we seen a very typical pattern that we're often used to on the 4th with heat, humidity, and even a few thunderstorms. Thunderstorms luckily moved out before most 4th of July festivities but the heat stuck around! Heat will once again stick around today as we'll get back into the 90's.

Just like yesterday, temperatures will get back into the low 90's with humidity during the early part of the day. Into the afternoon a cold front will sweep through forcing a few showers and thunderstorms along it, this will eventually cool us down into the night.

The cold front today is expected to move in anywhere from 4-6 p.m. tonight as a low-pressure system track to our north. Instability will build ahead of the cold front allowing for scattered thunderstorms to develop. We'll be looking at mainly heavy downpours and lightning as our main threat however a few isolated damaging wind gusts (60 mph+) may be possible as well.

With the cold front stalling just to our southwest tomorrow, more instability is expected to develop which may force a few more isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow around noon. Chances tomorrow don't look to be as high, while thunderstorms look to be less intense than today.

Rounding out the weekend and heading into next week, slightly cooler temperatures will return as after tonight's cold front temperatures don't look to reach back into the 90's. High pressure into Monday looks to keep us calm and dry as well!

 

Storm chances move out well before holiday celebrations get underway

Mother nature is bringing a few fireworks of her own for the 4th. Thankfully, these will be non-severe and will be done well before the time any festivities and celebrations get underway. 

A glimpse at radar shows a non-severe cluster of storms slowly sweeping through areas to the northwest of Madison. Forecast models show this cluster progressing southeastward into southern Wisconsin, southeast Wisconsin, and northern Illinois between sunrise and 10-11AM. If anything, they will be capable of winds up to 50 mph, small-sized hail, and heavy downpours. 

Once this activity fizzled out, clouds will decrease, turning skies partly cloudy for the afternoon. It's at this point in the holiday where the heat and humidity become the bigger headline. Both the partial sunshine and afternoon southwesterly breeze will push temperatures back into the 90s. Combine that with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s and you get heat indices in the 94° to 98° range. So while you are out and about celebrating the 4th this afternoon and evening, practice heat safety.

Not much relief moves for the start of the weekend as temperatures remain in the low 90s. This is all ahead of a cold front that is scheduled to sweep through late Saturday night into Sunday morning. With this front will be the chance for a few storms, mainly during the Saturday evening and Saturday night time frame. One or two may be strong to severe. If any thunderstorm were to become severe, damaging winds and large hail would be the primary concerns.