Winds of Change

A strong area of low pressure will continue to develop out in the Plains today and move through Minnesota and northern Wisconsin later tonight.  As it does winds behind the low will begin to pick up with sustained winds around 20-30 mph and gusts nearing 45-50 mph.  As a result a "Wind Advisory" has been issued from the northern to southern Plains for this afternoon.  Once that low pulls to the north of us tonight and tomorrow expect gusty winds Tuesday afternoon.  Just to give you a little background...the top image is a current surface analysis.  The light blue lines are isobars, or lines of constant pressure.  The tighter the lines are together, the stronger the wind field will be.  Notice our wind direction?  Ahead of the low winds are coming in from the southwest but behind the low winds are from the northwest.  Look for temperatures to remain cooler the next couple of days thanks to more of a northerly wind.

Because of the title of this blog post...I've had this song stuck in my head all morning long! Now I bring it to you...enjoy! :)

Weather this Morning

7:40am Update: The storms that prompted the warning have moved out of the area, therefore all severe thunderstorm warnings have been allowed to expire.

(7:23:47 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Roscoe [Winnebago Co, IL] amateur radio reports HAIL of pea size (M0.25 INCH) at 07:08 AM CDT --

(7:12:50 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] co-op observer reports HAIL of pea size (M0.25 INCH) at 07:07 AM CDT --

7:00am Update:  Storms continue to move east out of Winnebago county this morning and as a result the Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been allowed to expire for Winnebago county.  It still continues for northern Boone and McHenry counties until 7:30am.  Heavy rain, gusty winds along with small hail remain a possibility.

(6:45:50 AM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: <50 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Boone, McHenry, Winnebago [IL] till 7:30 AM CDT

Thunderstorms a Good Possibility Later on Sunday Night

A  disturbance  caused a few showers with isolated lightning to develop across the Stateline late this afternoon. The activity has intensified  tonight. A low level jet with warm air advection along with disturbances moving in from the west will cause scattered showers tonight with thunderstorms developing eastward out of Iowa later on well after midnight. On Monday it will be partly cloudy and warmer in the north central part of Illinois as a warm front lifts northward. The Gulf of Mexico is pretty much blocked off so no heavy rainfall is anticipated. Winds will pick up as the pressure gradient tightens on Monday with the system low pressure system intensifying over the northern plains.  There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms over far northwestern Illinois, and extreme southern Wisconsin on Labor Day, and across the entire area on Monday night as the strong low pressure system passes by to the north over far northern Wisconsin.  This will be a very intense the low pressure center, so, a tight pressure gradient will develop by Monday afternoon, and continue into Tuesday night.  Winds will gradually pick up during the day on Monday increasing to 15 to 25 miles an hour by afternoon with gusts above 30 mph.  It will continue very breezy overnight Monday night, and WIND ADVISORIES may be needed on Tuesday with winds 20 to 35 miles an hour gusting to near 45 miles an hour, and possibly higher.  High pressure from southern Canada will take control of Stateline weather on Wesnesday with mostly sunny skies and pleasant temperatures into the middle 70's by late afternoon.  On Thursday the high will shift off to the east allowing a warm front stretching from the Missouri valley southeast into the middle Mississippi valley to begin a slow northeastward movement.  There is a chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms by late in the day on Thursday.  The system will be a slow mover, so, showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a threat across our region off and on through Saturday when a new cool front will sweep in from the west and clearing skies for Sunday.
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Unseasonably cool temperatures Saturday night. Delightful on Sunday!

Canadian high pressure is settling across the area tonight resulting in mostly clear skies, diminishing winds, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures overnight will drop to unseasonably cool levels into the middle 40's. On Sunday high pressure will shift off to the east allowing a low pressure system over the northern plains to move eastward toward the upper midwest. There will be more clouds on Sunday afernoon than ON Saturday, and some showers may pop up over parts of southern Wisconsin. On Sunday night the warm front will brush by our region to the west, and north central Illinois may get a few sprinkles. The Gulf of Mexico is pretty much blocked off so no appreciable rainfall is expected. Winds will pick up as the pressure gradient tightens on Monday with the system approaching from the west. It will continue to be breezy Monday night and Tuesday with strong low pressure moving to northern Wisconsin, and pulling a cool front across the Stateline. Again precipitation is not expected with the passage of the cool front because of dry air in place across the upper midwest.  No significant cool down in anticipated with the passage of the cool front.  A pleasant air mass from southern Canada will settle in across the Stateline on Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs in the middle to upper 70's, and lows in the low 50's to the low 60's.  High pressure will shift off to the east on Thursday allowing a weather system over the plains to begin to have an influence on northern Illinois.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a warm from approaches the area from the southwest on Thursday.  Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday, Friday night into Saturday morning with the Gulf of Mexico supplying plenty of moisture to the system as a cool front approachs and moves through northern Illinois. 
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Earl is Now a Cat-2 Hurricane

Courtesy: National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Earl has weakened somewhat to a category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds now at 110 mph. It's currently moving slightly east of due north at about 18 mph and is located 160 miles south/southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On it's present track, it will pass just to the east of North Carolina's outer banks (see track in graphic above). However, Earl will still produce high seas, winds of 70 mph or higher, and dangerous rip currents across much of the mid-Atlantic coast tonight into tomorrow.  --TS

Showers Moving Through

Showers moving through the Stateline will be followed by partial clearing and somewhat breezy conditions later tonight. The rain should be over with in most areas by 9pm. Watch out for a few isolated strokes of lightning with this rain as it moves through the area, but any embedded thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.  --TS

Storms Moving In

While there are no current watches for the Stateline, we are watching as storms are beginning to fire up ahead of a trough/cold front.  The little bit of sunshine we've seen has increased the instability some within our atmosphere.  We'll be watching the storms that are around the Peoria area as there may be some further development along the northern edge - as well as the storms moving through eastern Iowa.  Storms could be moving through the Stateline between the 5pm and 9pm hour.  If you have any outdoor plans this evening you will want to continue to monitor weather conditions.