It's not a crippling snow event, but enough to disrupt the Friday morning commute

 



A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire area - N. IL and S. WI - beginning Thursday evening and lasting through Friday afternoon.  Snowfall amounts of 3"-6" still looks on target. 

 

 

 

 

The main low pressure system is spinning through southern California with a slug of moisture lifting north in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.  Currently heavy snow is falling in northern Oklahoma and south central Kansas where snowfall rates of 1" to 2" per hour are possible through the afternoon.  The weather remains quiet across Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin with high pressure overhead.

Winter Storm Warnings (shaded in pink) and Winter Storm Watches (shaded in blue) have been issued for the Plains and Midwest with Ice Storm Warnings (shaded in purple) for northern parts of Arkansas.  As of right now the only county under any sort of watch remains Whiteside County where a Winter Storm Watch will go into effect Thursday afternoon.  The system has slowed a bit and this will allow the bulk of snow to fall after dark Thursday with a timeframe right now looking at after 6pm and lasting through 5am Friday morning.  Good news for Thursday travels but not so good news for the Friday morning commute.  Snowfall totals are becoming a little more clearer and while not a crippling snow storm we will see a decent amount.  Preliminary snow totals call for 3"-6" to fall in N. IL and S. WI with lesser amounts towards Indiana and higher amounts downstate and in Iowa.  The storm will have a decent amount of moisture and even a little instability with it so it's possible that thundersnow may occur late Thursday night!  If this were to happen higher snowfall totals would be observed as snowfall rates would increase during that time.  Snow to liquid ratios will remain average ranging from 10:1 to 13:1 meaning whatever snow does fall will have a little weight with it.  Winds will also increase from the southeast causing some blowing and drifting.

The Winter Storm Impact forecast keeps things quiet through Thursday afternoon with the first flakes possibly falling around dinnertime southwest of Rockford towards the Quad Cities.  Snow will increase in coverage from south to north with the heaviest of the snow falling overnight.  Warmer and drier air becomes wrapped into the low from the south with a rise in temperatures expected by Friday morning.  This could create a mix of snow and freezing drizzle for a period before a switch back over to light snow by Friday afternoon.  Stayed tuned for further updates!

What We Know About Our Next Winter Storm

Every since last week, we've been talking about Thursday and Friday's winter storm and saying that we have to be patient and let the weather models come together before we know with certainty what's going to happen. Despite one big question mark (We'll get to that in a moment), there's a lot that we DO know about our next storm.

Location of Next Storm as of Tuesday Night

TIMING: Models have been pretty consistent the last couple days in saying this next system will roll in late Thursday (after sunset) and sticking around through Friday.

PRECIP TYPE: This storm system will bring a mostly snow event. We could see a little bit of wintry mix, including freezing drizzle, but the bulk of the snow will fall during the overnight hours on Thursday and early Friday morning.

MOST AFFECTED AREAS: While everyone is all but guaranteed to see accumulating snow, it looks like the heaviest snow totals will be to our west.

Now here's what we DON'T know, and it's a biggie... actual snow totals. As stated earlier, everyone will see accumulating snow, but a slight shift in the path of this storm with have a big impact on what we see.

Here's what some of the model runs are saying... but we won't make an official snow forecast until Wednesday.

RPM (In-house model): 4-6"
Afternoon NAM: 7"
Afternoon GFS: 4-5"

Bitter Cold Wind Chills Tonight

Winds will continue to be breezy through the overnight, and as temperatures fall, that is going to mean big trouble in the wind chill department.

Lows will be close to zero by Wednesday morning. Even though winds will be calmer by this point, wind chills starting late this evening and going through the morning will sit at around -15°.

As afternoon highs warm back into the 20s, our wind chills will warm back above zero, but it's still going to be a cold day across the Stateline! -BA

Tuesday Morning Weather: Icy, Windy and Cold

Noon Update:

Other than a few flurries this afternoon the snow is done.  Visibility has been gradually improving through the morning but the winds remain strong.  Temperatures are only in the low teens and wind chills remain near -10°.  Strong west and northwest winds will continue through the afternoon keeping the threat for blowing snow during the evening commute.  Untreated roads and surfaces will remain ice covered and slick.  Temperatures tonight drop close to 2° with wind chills near -15°.

The rain Monday evening quickly changed to snow with big, heavy and wet snowflakes which accumulated on grassy surfaces and roadways.  Now this morning the back edge of low pressure is moving through the western Great Lakes with an additional half an inch falling earlier this morning.  Snowfall is beginning to wind down, however, the winds will remain strong through the morning and afternoon.  Light snow/flurries will continue through Noon before cloudy skies take us into the evening.

Visibility has been reduced to less than a mile as the light snow has been blowing around and untreated roads are ice and snow covered which will make travel this morning very slow and difficult.  Please allow yourself extra time this morning.  Winds will remain gusty throughout the afternoon and even into the evening.  Even though a half an inch to an inch of snow has fallen the strong winds will take the snow on the ground and continue to blow it around on the roads.  Slick conditions will continue into tonight.

Thursday/Friday storm may be in weakening phase as it moves into the Great Lakes

Once we get past this afternoon's rain and snow all eyes will turn towards the west as the late week storm edges closer to the west coast.  The much anticipated low remains in the Gulf of Alaska and isn't expected to come onshore in California until Tuesday late afternoon.  Once it does it will take roughly 24 hours worth of observational data to obtain a complete sample of the system and really get a detailed storm track.  While the finer details are still a bit murky at this point, there seems to be a general consensus amongst most weather guidance suggesting the storm will be in a weakening phase as it moves closer to the Midwest and will take a little further track west of Illinois by Thursday night.  This still means Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin will experience snowfall Thursday but the heaviest snow may occur through Missouri, Iowa and the Dakotas.  This would also mean a chance for slightly warmer temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning which could cause the snow to switch over to a mix.

High pressure will be in place across southern Canada Wednesday afternoon as the low gains strength and pulls out of the southwest.  An east/southeast wind will also be in place across the Great Lakes causing the low to shift further west and north leaving Illinois on the 'warmer' side of the system.  At the same time, the low will be in it's weakening, or occluded, phase meaning once it reaches Northern Illinois late Thursday afternoon most of the energy will have been spent.  As of right now it appears as if the heaviest of the snow will fall from northern Missouri to Iowa and back through Nebraska and South Dakota.  We will see snow Thursday afternoon and Thursday night - that we know for sure - and as of right now it looks like several inches remain possible.  I'm not going to write-off this storm just yet because it hasn't moved onshore and it's possible a complete 180° may occur, but at this point a major snow event is becoming less likely.  Either way, travel conditions will deteoriate by late Thursday and continue overnight Thursday. 

Big Temperature Drop In the Next 24 Hours

After a cold start Sunday morning temperatures during the afternoon warmed into the low to mid 30s thanks to mostly sunny skies.  An increase in southerly winds kept temperatures overnight in the upper 20s and Monday morning we're we're back in the low 30s.

Highs this afternoon will rise into the low 40s under mostly cloudy skies.  Rain moves in between Noon and 2pm today ahead of a strong cold front.  A transition to snow will occur during this evening and continue into the overnight.  Accumulations will remain minor but temperatures will take a tumble into the teens overnight.  Winds increase from the west/northwest tonight and tomorrow keeping highs Tuesday afternoon only in the teens.

February Precipitation Gains and Shortfalls

Rainfall during the month of February, and the winter season, has been anything but short.  So far we've received over an inch and a half of rain during the month putting us nearly an inch above the monthly average and pushing us over three inches above since the beginning of December.  Unfortunately, the same can not be said for snowfall.  The majority of snow during February came within the first 7 days giving us nearly 11 inches of snow and putting us over six inches above the monthly average.  When compared to the season, however, we're almost 11 inches below since December 1st.  There is snow in the forecast for this upcoming week and the following week.  Maybe we'll be able to make up for what we lost earlier this winter season.