Weekend outlook: Quiet and cool

Southwest winds will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that will swing through the Stateline mid-morning Saturday.  Since this front is coming directly behind high pressure there won't be much moisture with it meaning any chance for rain looks few and far between.  If anything, the skies will start off a little extra cloudy Saturday morning.  Temperatures will briefly rise ahead of the front into the low 50's before falling into the 40's by the afternoon.  This will also come with a breezy northwest wind providing a little extra chill in air.  The weather stays quiet through the rest of the weekend before a wetter pattern arrives next week.

Record low tied Friday morning



High pressure, clear skies and calm winds are the perfect receipe for temperatures to tumble early in the morning.  Combine that with very cold air aloft and it sets the stage for record low temperatures.  Friday morning Rockford dropped to 23° which tied the previous record low set back in 1987.  Temperatures tonight won't be nearly as cold with gusty southwest winds.  This will keep temperatures holding steady in the 30s.

Friday morning update

A small area of clouds will continue to roll across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this morning.  It may be a little of a cloudy start this morning but skies are expected to remain partly cloudy this afternoon.  Winds will increase midday from the southwest giving temperatures a little boost into the upper 40s late in the afternoon.

Mother Nature's Blanket: How Clouds Affect Temps

After another cloudy day across the Stateline, the forecast is calling for clearing skies heading into Friday. The speed in which those clouds move out will play a big factor in just how cold we get Thursday night. Here's why:

Thick cloud cover acts much like a blanket. At night, the ground releases heat that it has built up throughout the day. When that heat rises, the clouds will reflect some of it back towards the ground, slowing the cooling effect we normally see at night.



Clear skies, however, allow any heat released by the ground at night to continue rising and escape into the atmosphere. That means we cool off at a faster rate, giving us colder overnight temps.




At this point, lows in the mid 20s will be the norm for most of the Stateline, but if skies clear quickly tonight, don't be surprised if we wake up to a few low 20s Friday morning. -BA

Uncertainty About Halloween Forecast

Kids and parents alike are already wondering what the weather will be like for Halloween and trick or treating next week. Unfortunately, the models are painting a very fuzzy picture about what we might see.

Case in point: Check out the GFS and Euro models for next Thursday. Both models have a massive storm system in the vicinity of the Stateline. But while the GFS keeps this system to our south and keeps rain chances closer to the Chicagoland area, the Euro drags that system north and smacks us with a LOT of rain.

Before you panic, remember that these models are a week out, so there's a high level of uncertainty with both of them. The models will change as we get closer to Halloween. We'll keep you updated as the forecast becomes clearer. Hopefully, we'll be talking about a dry Halloween by next week. -BA

Another pattern change in the works

It has been pretty cold lately and with snow showers falling earlier in the week, many have wondered if we'll ever get back to normal.  It does look like a somewhat warmer pattern will begin to take shape a few days before Halloween (and by warmer I mean closer to average highs in the upper 50s), but a pattern change may also lead to a little more rainfall.

The very persistent trough of low pressure that has been anchored across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will begin to shift further east allowing temperatures to slightly warm going into the weekend.  Low pressure developing east of the Rockies next week will push a warm front through Illinois and into Wisconsin late Sunday night with the front stalling just to the north in Wisconsin by Monday afternoon.  Winds at the surface will turn a little more southerly (compared to the northerly winds we've had lately) allowing a return of moisture from the Gulf.  This moisture will interact with the stationary boundary causing widespread rainfall possibly over an inch in some locations.  Wherever the front sets up is where the heaviest rain will fall.  Right now that looks to be somewhere in Wisconsin and Illinois.  Hopefully the system will be out of here in time for trick-or-treating fun with the ghosts and gobblins next Thursday. -CK  

Unusually Fast Start to Snow Season

Many areas of the Stateline saw their first snow of the season on Tuesday, and it's been awhile since we've seen such a quick start to wintery weather.

The only official snow report for the Stateline on Tuesday came from Polo, Illinois. The National Weather Service reported 0.8" of accumulation during the day, as evidenced by some of the viewer photos we received.

Ron Cain - Polo

Tom & Wanda Shumway - Polo

The last time Polo received measurable snow in October was 1997. In fact, the NWS says Tuesday was the earliest snowfall for the area in almost 20 years! If you're not ready for winter yet, we will get a break from the white stuff. The rest of October is looking snow free. -BA