Unsettled late week: Rain, snow and Arctic air arriving

Several upper level disturbances will move in from the southwest between now and Friday afternoon.  The first wave will bring rain to Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening.  Skies will stay mostly cloudy tonight with a little fog and haze developing through Thursday morning.  As a cold front moves into Southern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon, temperatures at the surface will be just warm enough to support rain while behind the front a mixture of rain & snow will fall.  As the colder air moves in Thursday evening and Thursday night light snow, or even sleet, will

mix with the rain through Friday morning before possibly changing over to all snow midday Friday.  Any accumulating snow will be light, but temperatures are going to take a big drop behind the front Friday night and for the upcoming weekend! 

The combination of mid 20's and strong northwest winds Saturday will keep wind chills in the low teens, if not single digits, Saturday afternoon.

Historic Sunday Tornadoes

A tornado outbreak in November is rare enough, but what we saw in Illinois on Sunday was historic for a few reasons.

The tornado that destroyed parts of Washington, Illinois probably made the most headlines this weekend. Preliminary reports from the National Weather Service identified the tornado as an EF-4 with winds up to 190mph. If that verifies, it will be the strongest tornado to hit Illinois in the month of November since records began in 1950.

Overall, there were 43 preliminary tornado reports throughout the state of Illinois on Sunday. Since record keeping began in 1986, 194 Tornado Warnings have been issued in Illinois. Of that 194, 101 were issued on Sunday.

If you would like to help those that have been affected by Sunday's tornadoes, you can find more information on our website by clicking here. -BA

Sunday's setup and November tornadoes

November tornadoes ripped through towns in downstate Illinois as well as south of Chicago, Indiana and Michigan Sunday morning and afternoon.  Severe storms of this nature are not common during the month of November, but they can happen.  Remember the EF3 Caledonia tornado that struck on the afternoon of November 22nd, 2010?  How about the EF3 tornado that ripped through the town of Poplar Grove in January 2008?  Looking back at history, as well as to Sunday, shows tornadoes can happen any time of the year given the right atmospheric setup.

You may have noticed Sunday was an unusually warm and somewhat humid day.  Temperatures were in the middle 60's around sunrise with dew points in the upper 50's/low 60's.  The high temperature reached 69°!  That type of moisture, this far north, isn't typically felt in the middle of November.  So, what caused the rare tornado outbreak across Illinois and the southern Great Lakes?

A very strong, fall storm system brought together the three key ingredients for storms to form: warmth & moisture creating instability, strong wind shear (turning winds with height) and a lifting force, in this case the cold front.  The winds within the jet stream as they came across the Midwest through Iowa and Central Illinois were on the order of 150+ mph!  Usually during the month of November the atmospheric winds tend to be stronger than what they are in late spring and summer.  This is due to the temperatures changing from north to south across the United States.  During the fall and spring there is typically a larger temperature contrast than there is in the summer when temperatures from Canada to the Gulf are a little more uniform.  The sharp contrast is what strengthens the jet stream, therefore creating those stronger winds above.  However, during the late fall and winter months we just don't have the sufficient moisture in place to generate thunderstorms.  This, unfortunately, wasn't the case Sunday morning.  As the strong jet stream winds came into Western and Central Illinois Sunday morning, they interacted with the strong, southerly winds at the surface.  The change in wind direction as well as wind speed with height increases the wind shear within the atmosphere.  This wind shear is what's needed to cause thunderstorms to rotate.  With the wind shear in place along with the instability, thanks to the incredibly high dew points, all we needed was a forcing mechanism to ignite rotating thunderstorms.  Storms were quick to form mid to late morning and continue into Eastern Illinois through the afternoon and into Indiana and Ohio during the evening.

Many have asked if tornadoes can occur in November and the answer to that is YES!  The Chicago National Weather Service looked at data for their County Wide Area (CWA) dating back to 1950 and found that 12 tornadoes across Northern and Northeast Illinois occurred during the month of November.  Most of them were closer to Chicago, but just 3 years ago we had the EF2 Caledonia tornado move through Boone County.  An interesting statistic from College of DuPage Meteorology Professor Victor Gensini indicates that, including yesterday, there have been 194 tornado warnings issued in the month of November in Illinois dating back to 1986.  Of those 194 warnings, 101 (or 52%) of them were issued during Sunday's tornado outbreak!  That's amazing!  Victor Gensini also stated that when looking back to 1950, the strongest November tornado in Illinois was an F3 tornado that occurred east of St. Louis back on November 15th, 1988.  A preliminary survey conducted from the Lincoln National Weather Service office of the Washington, IL tornado has rated that one an EF4.  If that holds true, then Sunday's tornado outbreak will have produced the strongest Illinois tornado in November dating back to 1950!

This is why it's so important not to let your guard down even as the temperatures fall.  It's our job as the First Warn Weather Team to provide you with the most accurate, up to date information so you can make informed decisions when severe weather strikes.  It's also our responsibility to help you and your family stay safe, no matter what type of weather we have!

Midwest Storm Photos

Photos of the Storms around the Midwest via Social Media

E. Peoria, IL

Washington, IL

Washington, IL

Coal City, IL

Coal City, IL

Gifford, IL

Kokomo, IN

Kokomo, IN

This last photo needs a little explaining: that is a patio table piercing the side of a building due to being blown so fast into the wall. - MT

Stateline Storm Photos

Photos from Sunday's Storms around the Stateline

Rochelle - Joe Olmo

Rockford - Jim Ambruoso

Rochelle - Ann Kenney

Esmond - Eddy

Above: Flagg Center - Angie Bushkohl Below: Rochelle - Sissy Ziech

Sunday afternoon weather updates

Storm updates and storm reports will continue through the morning and afternoon

2:58pm: House damaged and many trees uprooted at local golf course in Genoa, IL (DeKalb Co.)

1:14pm: 70mph wind gust reported in Crystal Lake at US-14 at McHenry College (McHenry Co.)

12:50pm: Reports of power lines down near IL-23 and Gurler Rd in DeKalb, IL (DeKalb, Co.)

12:50pm: Strong winds are reported from our Weather Watcher in Belvidere, Debbie.  Shingles are blowing off the roof, a screen has blown off and their anemometer (wind measurer) is not working due to how high the gusts are.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, S. Boone & S. McHenry til 1:15pm.  Wind gusts of 90mph are possible.  Hail of 1". Take shelter immediately.

11:50am: 79mph wind gust measured at Sterling Airport in Rock Falls, IL (Whiteside Co.)

Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Whiteside county has been extended into Ogle, DeKalb, and Lee counties until 12:45pm.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Whiteside county until 12:45pm.

11:38am: 1.00" hail reported in Rockford, IL (Winnebago Co.)

 Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been expired for Ogle, Winnebago, Boone and McHenry counties


Significant severe weather affecting areas just to the south of the Stateline.  Tornado Warning for La Salle until 12:15pm.  Confirmed tornado on the ground with power flashes being reported near Woodford.

11:29am: 0.25" hail reported in Mount Carroll, IL (Carroll Co.)

(11:26:16 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 5 S Rockford Airport [Ogle Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 11:20 AM CST -- hail ranged from quarter 1.00 inch to golfball size 1.75 with damage.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle, Winnebago, Boone and McHenry counties until 11:45am.  Half dollar sized hail was reported near Stillman Valley a little after 11:00am.  Large hail - quarter to half dollar, wind gusts near 60-70 mph and torrential downpours possible with this storm.



10:44am: 1.19" of rain fell within an hour a little east of Harvard, IL (McHenry Co.)
10:43am: Pea-sized hail reported in Lee, IL (DeKalb Co.)
10:37am: Funnel Cloud reported in Hebron, IL (McHenry Co.) at Alden Rd. just north of Thayer Rd.
10:30am: 1" hail reported in Roscoe, IL (Winnebago Co.)

10:08am: 54mph wind gust reported in Harvard with the previously-issued tornado warning.

 

 Tornado warning until 11am for N. Boone and eastern Walworth County. Currently just radar-indicated, but these storms have a history of producing funnels, so they should be taken just as seriously.  Moving to the NE at 45 mph




9:50am: Funnel Cloud reported in Hebron, IL (McHenry Co.) for that previous tornado warning.
9:55am: Dime-sized hail reported in Pell Lake, WI (Walworth Co.).

Tornado Warning for Walworth until 10:30am.  Storm located near Pell Lake and moving northeast around 50-55 mph.







Tornado Warning for McHenry County until 10:15am.  Storm motion is moving northeast around 50 mph.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for southeastern Walworth County until 10:30am

Severe Weather Update: Tornado Watch Issued

A tornado watch has been issued for the entire area until 4pm.  This has been deemed a "Particularly Dangerous Situation with long-lived and damaging tornadoes possible.

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch til 4pm

Throughout Saturday into Sunday, conditions have turned more favorable for severe weather development with strong gusty winds pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into our area and a vigorous low pressure system towering into the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Because of this, the highest risk for severe weather has been outputted today for many of our eastern counties, but everyone around the area still has a significant chance of getting severe storms including tornadoes and high wind gusts of 60-80mph.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday

Now is the time to get your severe weather plan ready.  Where will you go in case of a tornado? The acronym "D-U-C-K" is handy to have in mind.

D: Go Down to the lowest level of your house and to your "safe area".  Preferably your basement / cellar.  If you don't have that, go to the ground floor and get to the most interior room of your house with no windows.  This could be a closet or your bathroom.

U: Get Under something.  Your best bet is bringing your mattress into your "safe area".  If the worst happens, and your home is impacted, the mattress will protect the debris from hitting you and your family.

C: Cover your head.  I always say, bring your helmet with you and wear shoes as well.  You'll feel goofy, but a helmet can also help prevent debris from causing serious head injuries.  As for the shoes, after the storm passes and the worst happens, you don't want to be walking around bare-foot amongst debris.

K: Keep in place until the storm passes. If a tornado is on the ground, the First Warn Weather team will be on the air with you and will let you know when it is safe to leave your house.  Just turn up the volume as you go to your "safe area" and you'll be able to hear us. - MT