Morning Rain Update

Periods of very heavy rain - and even embedded storms are currently lifting north through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. While stronger wind gusts are possible, the severe threat with any of these is very low.  Currently, a line of fast moving stronger storms is tracking north through the Chicago suburbs, this is the area that could have some wind gusts reach the surface that are near 45-50kts. A watch or warning for this area is unlikely.

For the Stateline, periods of heavy rain will continue through the afternoon. The mid to late afternoon is the time frame we will be watching for strong to severe storms. Make sure to keep checking back - as the First Warn Weather team will continue to update on our rain and storm threat.

Wednesday Weather Update: Video Included

9:50pm Update: This is a little concerning to me regarding Wednesday late afternoon/early evening.  This is just one of many weather forecast models meteorologists use to help predict the weather.  This is a short-term, mesoscale model depicting where the possibility of thunderstorms could be.  What's concerning is how this model is trying to develop individual, supercell thunderstorms over northwest Illinois.  If this were to actually happen, there would be an increased risk for the potential of tornadoes after sunset.




With Wednesday just two days before Christmas, there will be many trying to finish last minute shopping or traveling during the day.  And unfortunately there is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms very close to the area Wednesday afternoon.

Please stay 'Weather Aware' Wednesday and continue to check back for the latest updates:

Monday Evening Weather Update: Video Included

An active weather week for the Midwest and Plains.  Find out which days could bring some travel issues locally in your Monday evening video update:

Warm December - More Records Possible this Week

The high temperature Monday reached 50 degrees in Rockford, making it the 9th day where the temperature has reached 50 degrees, or higher, during the month.  On average, the number of 50 degree days is only two. 

It's also the second most 50 degree days in December, falling behind 1941 when 10 days reached 50 degrees.  Temperatures on Wednesday will warm to at least 50 degrees in Rockford (slightly cooler to the west), if not

above which would put us at 10 days.  To say it's been warm this month would be an understatement.

Also, the rain from the morning added up to 0.62" which broke the daily rainfall record of 0.60" set back in 2006!  There will be a little drizzle/brief light shower later tonight and overnight so we'll likely see that number increase slightly. 

Looking ahead, Wednesday could potentially be another record day.  Record high for the afternoon is 57° set back in 1941.  Temperatures will get very close to that number during the afternoon.

On and Off Rain Through the Week of Christmas

It's finally here! The week of Christmas is here, and I'm sure a lot of you have much to do! If you have to run around a lot this week - you'll have to dodge some periods of rain. As you've probably noticed, the start to today has been a soggy one. A low pressure system moving into northern Illinois from Iowa has dumped periods of heavier rainfall through the area. The good news is, is that most of the rain will end around lunch time, with then mainly areas of drizzle taking over. So if you have to get out today, I'd plan on going after lunch! Overall today will be damp and cloudy with high temperatures reached early in the afternoon.

Tuesday will be a dry day, though it will be cloudy with a stratus deck of clouds still in place. Next system tracks from Colorado into Kansas, though for us that day will be dry and cloudy. Wednesday  we will be watching for possible record warmth, rain, and even thunderstorms! If you need to get out and run errands I'd skip Wednesday and try for today or Tuesday! Quiet weather returns again in time for Christmas, with Thursday and Friday dry and mild with temperatures in the low 40's.

Soggy Monday Morning

It's a soggy start this Monday morning with quite a bit of rain tracking across the area. We've had on and off rain showers all night ahead of a developing low pressure system. Now, that low pressure is tracking through eastern portions of Iowa, and we are getting a push of heavier rain. This happens as we get a push of energy and upward motion, allowing for more rain to fall.

Current check of the radar at 8:00am showing the heavier pocket of rain over Rockford, Belvidere and Marengo.

So far totals have been as high at a half an inch across the Stateline and southern Wisconsin not seeing much.

Forecasted totals look to be around a quarter to a half an inch, though some cities could have locally higher amounts.

Christmas Week Travel: A Few Bumps Along the Way

Whether you're planning on heading out by plane or car, you will run into weather-related travel issues this Christmas week.

The first arrives Monday morning.  Low pressure will quickly strengthen and lift into northeast Iowa (near Galena) by Monday morning.  Strong south winds will draw moisture northward into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Sunday night.  It will be rain, not snow, that could slow you down on the roads Monday morning.  Light drizzle may continue into Monday afternoon, but the heaviest rain will have ended.  It is possible that as temperatures slowly trend down closer to freezing Monday night, drizzle or even light freezing drizzle could fall.

By Tuesday the skies will dry across the Midwest and Great Lakes as rain spreads east and southeast through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Colder air settling into the west will cause snow to fall throughout the higher elevations of the Rockies with rain along the west coast.  This is the developing system that will bring us our biggest headaches locally Wednesday.

Wednesday will be a wet, and potentially stormy, day in the Midwest.  Strong low pressure will lift northeast from the Desert Southwest.  Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be in full force, but so will the warmth.  Record highs are possible Wednesday afternoon.  Strong south winds ahead of the low will push temperatures in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin into the 50's, with the 60's not that far away.  At the same time, strong lift in the atmosphere and the placement of the surface low could allow for thunderstorms to develop along the Mississippi River Valley.  Rain becomes more widespread during the afternoon and evening with locally one inch, or more, totals possible.  So whether you're planning on traveling by air or road, plan for a few delays.

A strong cold front will move through Wednesday evening and depending on how fast the cold air arrives, there could be a mix or brief transition to snow Wednesday night.

Christmas Eve day will be slightly cooler, but still above average.  Drier air following Wednesday night's cold front will allow for a little sun to shine through, but skies will turn mostly cloudy later in the day.  Rain will spread closer to the East coast while the snow continues to fall out west.  Highest travel impacts will likely be felt out west and in the Mid-Atlantic.

By Christmas, another low will develop in the southwest and begin to lift northeast through the Plains.  A warm front will be pulled northward through Illinois late Friday night.  The day should be dry, but there is a chance for precipitation to move back in by Friday evening/night.  Temperatures Friday night are expected to remain above freezing, but if we hold closer to the freezing point (32 degrees), then there is a small chance for a light mix into Saturday morning.

By the weekend, models are beginning to develop another storm system that will likely bring precipitation to the Great Lakes and Midwest.  However, those same models disagree as to whether that precipitation will fall as snow, rain or a mixture.  Be sure to stay tuned to the forecast if you're traveling over the weekend.