Warm & Dry into Spring!

Good morning Stateline! Hoping everyone had a fun and safe St. Patrick's Day! We woke up this morning to increasing clouds and a snow shower or two passing through the region. Today will be a repeat of yesterday as a strong high pressure system dominates the Midwest keeping things relatively quiet into tomorrow. 

Temperatures will warm up into the low 50's starting tomorrow starting a 6 day stretch of 50° temperatures here in the viewing area. The last time we had that long of a stretch was between October 28th to November 2nd of last year. This stretch started with a high of 50° on October 28th, a high of 59° on Halloween, and low 50's for the first two days of November.

 

And what perfect timing for winter to finally get the boot out of here than during the first week of Spring. Now, this stretch does seem to be mainly dry. So the combination of warmer temperatures and dry conditions will melt any remaining snow across the region adding to the catastrophic flooding conditions going on along the rivers. The next time we could see any significant rainfall is at the end of the weekend on Sunday! 

The Spring Equinox occurs on Wednesday at 4:58 PM! So it is most fitting to ask the question, Who's ready for Spring?!

Major Flooding Continues along Rivers in Northern Illinois

Major flooding is taking place along the Rock and Pecatonica Rivers in northern Illinois with rivers rising another half a foot, up to a foot, just within the past 24-36 hours.  Most of the east side of Freeport is flooded with rescues taking place from people trapped in their homes.  Significant flooding is occurring in Machesney Park along the Rock River and the gauge at Latham Park has just surpassed the record crest of 14.3ft back in 2008! 

Flood Warnings continue as moderate to major flooding is expected for the next week to week and a half.  The forecast for the next several days shows a drier pattern, which is definitely welcomed news.  However, warmer temperatures through this week and expected rainfall going into next weekend will likely keep rivers running high into the month of April. 

Click here for a current check on rivers, their current river level and expected crest time/date.

St. Patrick's Day Forecast!

Happy St. Patrick's Day Stateline. We know how festive Rockford gets when it's comes to St. Patrick's Day. So here is your "Pot of Gold" forecast. Starting off the forecast, we have a quick moving system coming in from the upper Midwest. This could bring a chance for some flurries tonight.

Areas off to the south could actually get light accumulations from this event. It should be all said and done around sunrise tomorrow morning as this system track to the south and pushes eastward.

Once that system pushes out, clouds will be on the decrease bringing some more sunshine to the Stateline. We will be starting off the day in the low 20's, rising into the upper 30's by noon, and topping out around 43° tomorrow afternoon!

Overall, expect partly sunny skies and breezy conditions for St. Patrick's Day. Winds will generally be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with wind gusts up to 20 mph at times. So if you are wearing any of those fancy St. Patrick's Day hats tomorrow, better hold onto them! We hope you have a safe and happy St. Patrick's Day!

Flooding Builds Toward Crest

As the weather warms in spring unfortunately so do the chances for flooding.  In the Stateline area, our rainfall total since January is 7.92 inches, which is 4.15 inches above normal - more than double what it should be!  We can see the evidence everywhere with rivers flowing out of their banks and standing water in yards and fields. We have an Areal Flood Warning in place until Wednesday morning at 9:15 am.  Areal Flooding is flooding that develops more gradually from prolonged and persistent rainfall, it results in ponding and build-up of water in low-lying flood-prone areas, as well as small creeks and streams.  Because of this type of flooding, it will take time for the water to reach the major rivers, such as the Rock River, and why it will not crest and then start dropping until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week (based on National Weather Service hydrographs).

We do have good news, however and that is there is no significant precipitation in the Forecast for the next 7 days.  This will allow fields and streams to dry and reduce the threat of prolonged flooding.

Update on River Flooding & Safety Tips

Good Morning Stateline! We kick off the morning with flood warnings for a majority of the rivers across the Stateline. This includes the Pecatonica, Kishwaukee, The Rock, and the Mississippi out west. These flood warnings will be in effect until futher notice.

Take a look at the Rock River in downtown, Beloit, Wisconsin using our Mercyhealth skycam. You can see the raging river waters just barely missing the bottom of that bridge. Similar scenes can be seen with other Rivers across the Stateline this morning.

 

After a week of heavy rain events and above average temperatures, many of the rivers as of this morning are are moderate flood stage. By the start of next week, we could see the Pecatonica and Rock Rivers push into a major flood stage. And it could also be record breaking.

What you see here is called a Hydrograph. This is what the National Weather Service use when they are observing river levels. And the height of the river is put into 4 categoies:

1. Action

2. Minor

3. Moderate

4. Major

The Rock River in Latham Park was observed at 12.8' this morning. It's record crest of 14.3' is in jeopardy as this part of the river is predicted to be at or just peek over the record at 14.4. So if you live in this area, make sure you have a plan set just in case flooding impacts your area.

Next, we have the Pecatonica River out in Shirland. This part of the river was observed at 15.2' this morning and is forecasted to rise up to 17.5' by the start of next week. Coming just short of the record crest of 18.1'.

 

Here are a few flodd safety tips to keep in mind when dealing with a flooded roadway. Do not attempt to drive through the flooded road. One foot of water can float most vehicles and 2 feet of rushing water can carry most vehicles including SUV's. Turn around, don't drown, and find an alternate route to your destination.

Have a plan in place, and make sure you have a place to go to if your home is impacted by a flood. You want to make sure that you provide the most safety for not only you, but for the people around you!

Possible Record Crest on the Rock River Early Next Week

Major flooding is forecast to occur along the Rock and Pecatonica Rivers late this weekend or early next week, with a record crest possible for the Rock River at Latham Park.  The Rock River at Rockton could also come close to a record crest early next week.

Flood Warnings continue for the Rock, Pecatonica and Kishwaukee Rivers in northern Illinois as the river stage has gone up significantly since the heavy rain Tuesday night.  Most points along the rivers are expected to crest in major flood stage sometime over the weekend or early next week.

Below are the current river levels, as well as the anticipated crest height and time as of 9pm Thursday night.  It's important to remember that the forecast will likely change as additional rain falls within the river basin, as well as with any additional rain or snowmelt that may occur further upstream. 

Pecatonica River:
Freeport: Currently in moderate flood stage at 15.31ft – Forecast to crest at 17ft (major flood stage) late Monday/Tuesday

 

Shirland: Currently in moderate flood stage at 15.1ft – Forecast to crest at 17.5ft (major flood stage) late Sunday/Monday

Rock River:

Dixon: Currently in minor flood stage at 17.22ft – Forecast to crest at 17.8ft (minor flood stage) late Friday/Saturday

Byron: Currently in major flood stage at 16.03ft – Forecast to crest at 16.4ft (major flood stage) late Friday

Latham Park: Currently in moderate flood stage at 12.41ft – Forecast to crest at 14.5ft (major flood stage) late Monday/Tuesday – *the forecast for this point along the river is expected to crest over the record crest of 14.3ft*

Rockton: Currently in moderate flood stage at 12.58ft – Forecast to crest at 15.4ft (major flood stage) late Monday/Tuesday - *this crest will come close to the record crest of 15.5ft*

Kishwaukee River:

Belvidere: Currently in moderate flood stage at 10.27ft – Forecast has it cresting down will decreasing levels through the weekend

Perryville: Currently in minor flood stage at 15.4ft – Cresting now with decreasing levels through the weekend

Tornado Watch Issued for Parts of Northern Illinois

2:30pm Update: The Tornado Watch has been canceled for Boone, McHenry and DeKalb counties.  Biggest threat now for the rest of the afternoon will be the strong wind gusts!  Southwest winds have been gusting close to 50 mph in some locations.

A Tornado Watch has been issued for Boone, McHenry and DeKalb counties until 5pm Thursday evening.  The greatest threat for severe weather remains over northeast Illinois and Indiana as better instability and atmospheric dynamics are located.  However, a quick moving line of thunderstorms raced through northern Illinois, now lifting into southern Wisconsin, did produce heavy rainfall and small hail.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for northeast Rock County until 2:45pm.  The storm was located near Milton, WI and is moving northeast around 55 mph.  60 mph wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible with this storm.  Those in its path should seek shelter.

Cloud cover will fill back in for the rest of the afternoon as low pressure passes over northern Illinois.  Winds are increasing from the southwest, gusting at times close to 40 mph.  Scattered showers will be likely under the cloud cover this afternoon, but our severe threat is quickly fading away.