Big Changes On The Way!

Our weekend is off to a mild start with temperatures in the upper 30's and low 40's and it looks like Sunday will again be mild with temperatures topping out in the mid-40's.  We will have a chance for light showers or drizzle late tomorrow evening as a weak storm system approaches from the south. 

Things start to get more complicated for the start of the week as the storm system continues to move to our northeast - bringing moderate rain and showers to our area, and then a cold front will approach from the northwest and shift our winds mid to late afternoon.  We could see light snow or flurries after the cold front passes and you will certainly be able to feel the drop in temperatures - from the mid-40's in the early afternoon all the way down to the teens by late Monday evening.  That represents a drop of almost 30 degrees!  

The cold stays with us through mid-week before it moderates a by next weekend.  We knew this mild weather wouldn't last very long!  

Warming Climate Trend Continues

As we begin the month of December and get ready to close the book on this decade, we can't ignore the fact that over the past several decades our climate has continued to warm. The latest report from Climate Central shows that temperatures in Rockford have gone up by about half a degree each decade, for the last five decades. While that number may not seem like a lot, a warming climate has significant impacts on many across the world.

Think about this, as the temperature rises one degree it allows the atmosphere to hold 4% more water vapor at any given point. This means the possibility for heavier rainfall events locally, but also across the country. Billion dollar weather and climate disasters have already cost the U.S. more than $700 billion dollars since 2010. Alaska and the Arctic are warming much faster than other parts of the world and Arctic sea ice seasons have been melting to record low extents.

On the local level, this past decade has been the warmest decade for 222 of the 244 cities that Climate Central analyzed. It was noted that while some of the warming may be due to an intensifying urban heat island effect, it's likely not the reason for it all. 

On the national and global level the warming is even stronger. If the warming trend continues, it could surpass the Paris Agreement's limits of 1.5-2°C above preindustrial levels. The winter the consequences to communities who depend on winter tourism could be impacted.

months are the fastest warming months out of any season, with the three month span warming a little over four degrees since the 1970s in Rockford. While warmer winters may sound nice,

Dry Stretch Continues through the End of the Week, Most of the Weekend

After what has seemed to be a long and dreary stretch of cloudy days, the sunny skies Wednesday afternoon were definitely a treat. Despite the northwest wind, highs still managed to warm into the low to mid 40s. Skies will remain clear through the night with winds becoming light after Midnight.

Cloud cover will increase Thursday ahead of a cold front, but with limited moisture available in the atmosphere it will just be the cloud cover we see. High pressure will dominate our skies through the end of the week and start of the weekend. This means limited rain chances through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon a few light showers will be possible, but nothing that looks too significant. 

The dry weather has been much anticipated after a fairly wet Fall season. The month of November was dry, but excessive rainfall early in the year has lead to high soil moisture and local rivers still running high. Year to date precipitation for Rockford is 47.87 inches, and places us as the 4th wettest year of record so far, falling behind last year at this time with a little over 48 inches. The pattern doesn't favor a lot of rain, but a much cooler air mass next week and a strong cold front will lead to rain and even some snow for the second week of December.

Changing Pattern Early Next Week Brings a Chill for the Second Week of December

Sunshine was quick to return Tuesday afternoon following a cloudy start. High temperatures warmed into the low to mid 40s area wide. The stretch of 40 degree days will continue into the weekend, with the exception of Friday with highs falling back into the 30s. A split flow in the jet stream pattern this week will keep most of the moisture down to the south, leaving very little for systems moving in from the northwest and moving across the Midwest.

That pattern changes going into the weekend allowing a little more moisture to be pulled northward late Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to light showers beginning late Saturday night, lasting into Sunday. At this point, it doesn't look like it will be a significant amount of rainfall. An even bigger pattern change arrives sometime early next week with a dip in the jet stream over the center of the country. This dip will allow a much cooler air mass to spill south either Monday or Tuesday of next week with high falling into the 20s, nearly ten degree below average. That chill could last through the middle of the month.

Tranquil Weather Returns for the New Work Week

Two strong systems brought an active week of weather for Thanksgiving. Fortunately, much quieter weather is ahead for a new work week.

An area of high pressure to the northwest will slowly slide in today, which will help wipe the skies of these pesky morning clouds. So far, satellite imagery has shown that sky conditions have improved for those that live to the west and north of Rockford.

Throughout the day, we can expect a mix of clouds and sun. but it's going to be a bit chilly. Breezy northwesterly winds will stick around with us this afternoon, limiting our high temperatures to the upper 30s. Now, that does fall a few degrees below average. But hey, I'd trade the messy weather we saw over the weekend for sunshine any day.

A moisture-starved cold front fizzles out to our north overnight, bringing with it more cloud cover. The night will start off with partly cloudy skies, then cloud cover increases after midnight. I did keep a slight chance in the forecast because we can't entirely rule out a few snowflakes, but most of the region will remain dry heading into Tuesday. Lows tonight will end up a little bit cooler, dropping down into the mid-upper 20s.

Tuesday is going to be quite identical to today. And I'm happy to say that the tranquil weather will continue into the middle of the week. For tomorrow, cloudy skies will give way to a few peeks of sunshine by the afternoon. That along with a southwesterly wind will allow highs to climb to near 40. We’ll see another day near 40° for Wednesday, as a bit more sunshine makes an appearance as high pressure moves into the region. Today, tomorrow, and Wednesday all provide multiple opportunities for you to go out and pick a Christmas tree, or to put up the lights. In my opinion, Wednesday would be the best day of the three!

Cloudy Skies Remain for Turkey Day

Winds were howling yesterday, with maximum gusts falling short 60 miles per hour in Rockford. Much calmer conditions stick around for the holiday, but cloudy skies remain in place.

If you’re doing some traveling today, you won't have much in the way of slowing you down. Traffic wise, and weather wise. We’ll see plenty of clouds throughout the day. And despite how gloomy the skies may look today, the Stateline remains less windy and dry. But don’t be surprised if you see a few areas of drizzle this afternoon. Highs today will end up on the chilly side by only climbing into the upper 30s, so it’ll be a cool day. If you want to go outside and throw the pigskin around, just make sure to dress appropriately and warm.

Cloudy skies remain in place overnight tonight. The first half of our night seems to stay dry, but a little bit of moisture does stream in overhead by tomorrow morning. That little bit of moisture could aid in a light wintry mix right around the time the early shoppers head to the stores. However, this shouldn't bring any big issues with travel early in the day, but just make sure to take it a bit slow as you head out to get some holiday shopping done. Now, plenty of dry hours are in store early on as a ridge of high pressure sits overhead. But rain chances return to the forecast during the afternoon, especially in the evening. Temperatures climb to near 40, so expect the wintry mix to transition to all rain by the afternoon and evening. A widespread cold rain overspreads the Stateline by Saturday.

Peak Wind Gusts Wednesday Afternoon

The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire after peak wind gusts reached 60 mph in some locations Wednesday afternoon. Here in Rockford, the peak wind gust reached 59 mph, 58 mph in Cortland (DeKalb County) and 55 mph in Rochelle. Not quite as strong to the north and west, but windy enough.

Sporadic power outages and issues on the roads were experienced throughout much of the afternoon Wednesday. As low pressure pulls

further away from northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, wind speeds will gradually begin to subside. Much lighter winds are expected Thanksgiving Day, but a new system moving in for the weekend will bring with the threat for gusty winds, rain and even some snow.