Comfortably Warm Tuesday, Warmer & Humid Times Ahead

Comfortably Warm Tuesday:

High pressure remains in control as we now head into Tuesday. This will bring a sun-filled start, with cooler-than-average temperatures in the upper 50s. If you need to, grab a light jacket before heading off to school or work. However, that jacket won't be necessary by the afternoon. Mixed sunshine, along with a light southeast wind, will help bring temperatures up a notch by a few degrees, with most spots topping out in the mid 80s.

Along with the uptick in heat this afternoon comes a slight uptick in humidity. Dew points this time around are expected to sit in the low 60s, making it feel a bit muggy at times. However, the humidity shouldn't be too much of an issue. 

Guidance does slide in a very small chance for an isolated shower or two, mainly to the southeast of the area. But current thinking suggests we'll stay mainly dry. Skies remain partly cloudy overnight, with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 60s before sunrise. Wednesday's warmer start will be a sign for things to come for the rest of the work week, as the heat and humidity will be much more noticeable. 

Warmer, Humid Times Ahead:

Wednesday begins on a dry note under mixed sunshine. But with a weak disturbance working through the Stateline during the second half of the day, a brief, light shower or two cannot be entirely ruled out. Southeast winds look to remain dominant, helping temperatures inch closer to the 90° mark by the afternoon. 

 A similar forecast can be expected for the remainder of the work week, with the humidity becoming a bit more unbearable by Friday afternoon. While still in slight disagreement, models did show our next cold front sliding in sometime near mid-day. This continues to look like our best chance for rain. In my opinion, I think the timing of the front will be key for severe weather potential. However, we still have to see how models trend with the cold front over the next few days.

Nine tornadoes occurred last Monday afternoon and evening; Ten total in northern Illinois

 

The Chicago National Weather Service has updated their information regarding the tornadoes that touched down across northern Illinois last Monday afternoon and evening.  In all, a total of 10 tornadoes occurred, nine of those touching down throughout Lee, Ogle, DeKalb and McHenry counties.

 The latest update comes to the tornado that occurred south of Kirkland, as well as the Sycamore tornado to account for multiple touchdowns.  The Kirkland tornado is now rated an EF-1 with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.  This tornado occurred from the same storm that produced the EF-0 tornado north of Creston, touching down just south of Base Line Road and lifting before reaching Pearl Street.  According to the National Weather Service, the tornado may have skipped while on the ground shortly after touching down west of Malta Road.  Crop damage increased in a field east of Byers Road before heavily damaging a barn west of Pearl Street. 

The next update comes with the supercell storm that moved through Sycamore.  In all, four tornadoes touched down with the largest one occurring near Fenstermaker Road, south of Bethany Road.  This tornado has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.  The next was an EF-0 tornado that occurred on Barber Green Road with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.  The third was another EF-0 tornado that touched down south of Peterson Road with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.  The fourth tornado touched down south of Welter Road and Rt. 64 in an open farm field.  You can read more about the path and lengths of tornadoes from the National Weather Service here.

Comfortable, Sun-Filled Stretch Continues For Those Heading to Their First Day of School

Back to School: 

For many kids across the region, they're waking up early this morning, getting their supplies packed, and are heading off to school. Which means, it's time to bring back the Bus-Stop Forecast. For those that are starting the new school year today, the forecast remains quiet. 

Since temperatures early on are sitting in the low to mid 50s, you may want to send them out the door with a light jacket or a sweatshirt. Otherwise, they won't need it by the time they are heading home because the weather we saw over the weekend is set to stick around for the beginning of the work week.

Comfortable Monday:

Thanks to an expansive area of high pressure over the Great Lakes, the rest of our Monday remains dry, with just a few passing clouds expected for the afternoon. Similar to Saturday and Sunday, afternoon highs for most will top out in the low 80s, which is quite seasonable for the middle of August. The atmosphere remains dry overnight, with temperatures once again falling into the upper 50s. Tuesday's pleasant start will give way to a partly sunny and comfortably warm afternoon, with highs slightly warmer in the upper 80s. While there will be a very small uptick in humidity by Tuesday afternoon, there's no need to be concerned just yet. However, if you don't turn your A/C units on tomorrow, you likely will be by Wednesday.

Feeling the Humidity:

As more moisture gets pulled into the Stateline, the humidity will be much more noticeable by the middle of the work week. While this uptick in humidity may lead to a slight chance for a passing shower or two Wednesday, our best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will come ahead of a approaching cold front Friday into Saturday. 

High temperatures during this stretch will fall short of the 90-degree mark by a degree or two. However, depending on how dry we are, it's possible we may see a day or two where the thermometer briefly touches the 90-degree mark. It won't be until after the cold frontal passage Saturday where we'll see a little relief from the upcoming heat and humidity. 

Comfortable & Sun-Filled 815 Day Ahead, Dry into Next Week

Remaining Comfortable:

With the arrival of Thursday evening's cold front, a more comfortable and less humid air-mass has taken over for 815 day weekend. In my opinion, Saturday has been a perfect 10 out of 10, with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s/low 80s, and dew points for some in the 40s. Guess what? With the same area of high pressure still in control, the weather remains comfortable into the start of next week. At the same time, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin won't see rain chances again until the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. 

Pleasant Saturday Night:

 

Overnight, this high pressure system will slide to our east, with the center sitting right over the central Great Lakes. Even with the eastward movement, tonight remains very dry under mostly clear skies. When you have little cloud cover and very light surface winds, a process called radiational cooling gets underway, allowing temperatures to rapidly drop. In this case, temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 50s before sunrise Sunday morning. This pleasant start to this year's edition of 815 day will be a sign for things to come, as the rest of Sunday looks to remain tranquil and comfortable.

815 Day Forecast:

Sunday will be a repeat of today, with plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs topping out in the low 80s. If you have any plans to celebrate 815 day, it’s always a good reminder to have a bottle of sunscreen with you. The UV index will still be very high in the 8-10 range. 

Otherwise, take as much time as you can the next few days to enjoy this lovely break from the extreme heat and humidity. Also, take this time to give your A/C units a break, especially with how hard they've been working the past week or so. Humidity levels will remain in the comfortable 50s range through the middle of next week. That’s when we’ll see a slight uptick in dew points along with an uptick in rain chances.

Goodbye Excessive Heat, Comfortable Weather Moves in for 815 Day Weekend

Goodbye Excessive Heat:

For those who were wondering when we would see a break from the uncomfortable heat and humidity, I'm happy to say it's finally here. Overnight, a long-awaited cold front finally took it's journey through the Stateline, allowing a cooler and less humid air-mass to filter in from the north. It'll feel more comfortable as you head out the door this morning, but we'll really feel the effects of this frontal passage by this afternoon. 

Comfortable Friday:

Our Friday kicks off with a little cloud cover, thanks to a round of showers and thunderstorms well to the southwest of the Stateline. Underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures continue to drop, with most of our spots registering in the low to mid 60s. 

Behind this cold front, winds are expected to take a turn to the north-northwest, topping throughout the day at 5-15 mph. This will help our daily afternoon highs drop from the upper 80s-low 90s yesterday to the low 80s today. In my opinion, a fabulous way to end such a hot and humid week. With an area of high pressure sliding in from the northwest, cloud cover this morning will give way to increasing sunshine by the afternoon. Starlit skies are expected overnight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s by Saturday morning.

Remaining Cool:

I would get accustomed to the sunshine and comfortable weather, because it scheduled to stick around for the 815 day weekend. Yes, you heard me right. While this high pressure system is expected to slide to our east by Saturday, it will still have control of our atmosphere over the weekend. Under a plethora of sunshine, daily afternoon highs Saturday look to climb in the low 80s. There may be a few more clouds filling our skies on Sunday, but the good news is the radar will still remain quiet. Similar to today, no issues with the humidity over the weekend as dew point temperatures sit in the low to upper 50s. 

One More Day of Heat & Storms Before We Settle Down For the Weekend

Recent Rainfall:

Here's a crazy statistic to kick off this blog post. The Chicago-Rockford International Airport has observed a whopping 3.13" of rainfall since the sun rose this past Sunday. Why is this stat important? Well, that means we've observed more rainfall in the past 4 days than we have during each month of the year. Our rain chances continue for one more day, as a slow-moving cold front finally takes it journey into the Stateline.

Bye Bye Extreme Heat:

Ahead of this frontal boundary lies another hot and humid afternoon with temperatures for most topping out in the low 90s. Although the Stateline IS NOT under a Heat Advisory today, I would still make heat safety a big part of your late-day plans. Southwest winds will push dew points into the low to mid 70s, resulting in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. The more oppressive heat has shifted to the south and to the east of the Stateline, as heat advisories and excessive heat warnings extend from the Midwest to New England. Most of your Thursday remains dry under a mix of clouds and sunshine. We may see a bit more cloud cover however once the evening hours come around thanks to the incoming cold front.

Late-Day T-storms:

Guidance suggests this frontal boundary sliding in late in the afternoon, allowing thunderstorm chances to begin by 3PM-4PM. Storms look to develop along and south of highway 20, tracking south-southeastward as we inch closer towards sunset. For the fourth straight day, our daily thunderstorm chances come with the potential for severe weather, with much of the region sitting under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Any storm that becomes severe will have the capability of producing damaging straight-line wind, small-sized hail, and heavy downpours. Chances will come to an end around 8PM-9PM, with conditions remaining partly cloudy overnight. We'll begin to feel the effects of today's cold front by Friday morning as temperatures drop into the low 60s. 

Comfy Times Ahead:

For those that have been wanting a break from this excessive heat and humidity, I'm happy to say it's closer than you think. Following highs in the low 90s today, temperatures look to drop to more comfortable levels for the end of the work week and even over the weekend. An area of high pressure looks to slide in behind today's frontal passage, bringing along a dry stretch of weather to tag along with the cooler temperatures. Guidance keeps this high pressure system locked over the Great Lakes, keeping this dry pattern into the start of next week. Our next chance for rain doesn't arrive until next Wednesday. And even that chance looks very slim at the current moment. 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for a portion of the Stateline

 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for Lee, DeKalb and McHenry counties until 2am Thursday as isolated thunderstorms were quick to develop over southeast Lee and DeKalb counties.

 The cap on our atmosphere is still rather strong Wednesday night, really limiting thunderstorm growth.  The storms over central DeKalb County did turn severe closer towards Chicago, but then were quick to weaken.  Isolated showers and storms developed over southeast Wisconsin, moving out over Lake Michigan earlier, likely in an area where the cap was a little weaker.  Additional light showers have been showing up on radar over the last hour and these will need to be watched for any further development into the night.  I'm still holding on to the threat for isolated strong to severe storms as the moisture and energy are still rather high in the atmosphere. It's really hard to say where exactly these storms may form through the night as areas where the cap is a little weaker, we may see faster growth.

 

The greatest risk for thunderstorms, should they form tonight, would be hail and wind.  Given the moisture and wind shear in the environment tonight, the threat for isolated tornadoes will also be present - but low at this point.