Rain Chances Follow An Unseasonably Warm & Windy Wednesday

Looking Back:

Can you believe that it's been ten years since the historical heat wave of 2012? If you need a little refresher, it was a VERY summer-like stretch that resulted in eight daily record highs. 

Highs from the 14th to the 23rd were a whopping 35° to 45° above average, with the warmest high being observed on the 21st (84°). Now, while it hasn't been THAT warm the past few days, it's still been comfortable enough for you to head outside. Maybe warm enough to give the heater a break and open up those windows. For some, that might be a bit of a stretch. But, a warm front sliding through the region will allow the warm stretch as of late to continue into our Wednesday. 

Windy, Warm Wednesday:

Wednesday begins with plenty of sunshine, with a few fair-weather cumulus clouds popping up by the afternoon. As a warm front lifts through, winds will turn to the southwest mid-morning, increasing to around 35-30 mph between 12PM-5PM. 

This will result in a slightly warmer day with highs falling short of the 70-degree mark. Conditions remain quiet during the evening commute and even for the overnight hours. However, St. Patrick's Day looks to start off with a bit more cloud cover thanks to an approaching cold front. 

St. Patrick's Day Forecast:

Guidance has this cold front sliding through around sunrise Thursday morning, with rain chances soon to develop shortly after. The combination of the two will result in a noticeably cooler afternoon with highs peaking in the low to mid 50s. 

A more potent area of low-pressure is expected to continue our rain chances into Friday, but in a more widespread fashion. Cooler air wrapping in on the backside of the surface low will allow for mixed precipitation at times, especially going into Friday night and early Saturday. High temperatures both days fall to the mid and upper 40s.

Sunny & Mild Stretch Continues, Few Showers Possible for St. Patrick's Day

Mild Stretch Continues:

Tuesday begins with a little bit of cloud cover thanks to a stationary boundary sitting overhead. Guidance does have this front pulling away from the Stateline by mid to late morning, allowing clouds to give way to a vast amount of sunshine. 

Winds at first will be out of the north-northeast. But as the day carries on, we'll see our winds change to the west and southwest, pushing temperatures back into the mid to upper 50s. In other words, another perfect day for recess and a perfect day for you to head outside. Conditions remain quiet for the evening drive home and for the overnight hours tonight, with temperatures falling into the upper 30s. 

Late-Week Rain Chances: 

Wednesday featured just as much beautiful sunshine. However, winds are expected to become more organized out of the southwest, allowing temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 60s. Comparing that to our average high for March 16th, that lands between 15° to 20° above average. 

It's not until St. Patrick's Day that we see our next chance for rain move in. It all starts with a frontal boundary which may bring a few scattered sprinkles and light showers into the afternoon. However, it still appears that our best rain chances will hold off until Thursday evening and Thursday night as a strengthening system slides across the Midwest. By the time we're jumping into the early stages of Friday, colder air will begin to wrap in on the system’s back side, allowing for a brief window for mixed precipitation. Temperatures briefly cool-down for Friday before returning to the 50s and 60s for the upcoming weekend. 

Quick change in temperatures Saturday to Sunday

 

From a January chill on Saturday to temperatures feeling more like April Sunday, the weather has gone through quite the change in just a short 24 hours.  Highs Sunday warmed into the low 50s, after only reaching the mid 20s Saturday afternoon.

The Spring-like warmth will continue for the next several days, reaching the mid 60s by the middle of the week - nearly 15-20 degrees above average - before slightly dropping down again by the end of the week.  A weak cold front passed through mid-day Sunday shifting winds from the south during the first half of the day, more to the west and northwest by the afternoon.  The boundary stalls out a little Sunday evening before lifting back north as a warm front Monday morning.

We'll add in a little more cloud cover during that time, but temperatures on Monday should warm right back into the low to mid 50s during the afternoon. The above average warmth will continue through the remainder of the week, with a little dip in numbers by the end of the week.  Highs Wednesday will warm into the mid 60s, dropping a little Thursday with the passage of a cold front.

Light snow Thursday evening coming to an end

 

Flurries and light snow showers developed Thursday afternoon, first to the south of Rockford, but then were quick to spread north into northern Illinois mid to late afternoon.  Most of the snow was light, but there were a few heavier pockets of snow embedded within, reducing visibility down to under a couple miles in a few locations.

The limited sunshine we had earlier in the day was enough to warm pavement temperatures to keep most of the snow from sticking, but under the heavier snow bands minor accumulations did occur on some of the pavement, such as sidewalks and driveways.

The snow will end from west to east through 8pm/9pm, with a few flurries lasting through Midnight.  After that, mostly cloudy skies are expected through the night with temperatures falling into the upper teens.  The lack of snow this winter season has been very noticeable with Meteorological Winter (December, January, February) only receiving 15.7 inches.  That's just a little more than 13 inches below normal.  Precipitation was down too, only receiving 4.05 inches, putting us at 1.11 inches below normal.

The lack of precipitation and overall snow could end up having significant impacts on our soil moisture heading into the Spring season as most of northern Illinois and all of southern Wisconsin are in moderate drought conditions.  Deep snow cover has been almost non-existent across the area with zero days reported with six (plus) inches of snow cover on the ground in Rockford.  During an average winter, that number is usually around 16 days.  If we end up going the entire winter season without deep snow cover, six inches or more, it would be the firs time that has happened since the 1986-1987 winter season!  Our season to date snowfall has only been 17.6 inches, which is almost 16 inches below the season to date average. 

Light Snow Chances Late, The Recent Chill Lingers into the Weekend

Recent Chill:

Wednesday marked the fourth time in the first nine days of March where our high temperatures failed to climb out of the 30s. This makes last week's 50-degree stretch and even the unseasonably warm Saturday we had this past weekend feel like a very distant memory. Now, there's good news and not so good news when it comes to the forecast moving forward. The good news resides with the big-time warmup that settles in as we head into next week. However, the "not so good" news is that this cold spell is set to stick around for a few more days.

Late-Day Snow Chances:

Thanks to the weak frontal boundary that came through Wednesday morning, temperatures early before sunrise are sitting in the teens. And instead of walking out to clearing skies, the Stateline is waking up to quite a bit of cloud cover. 

This is all in response to the storm system that is currently bringing moderate to heavy snow to many across the central plains. Over the past couple of days, forecast models have been hinting at the possibility for this exact storm system to bring some snowfall to the Stateline. But, as we've seen plenty of times throughout the winter, this storm system will be tracking far enough to the south to where the Stateline will avoid any possibility for significant accumulations.

Friday's Cold Front:

If any accumulations do occur locally, they will be minor (dusting-1") and more than likely will be in areas along or south of I-88. Snow chances last into the early overnight hours, with skies remaining mostly cloudy into Friday morning. A secondary and stronger frontal boundary is expected to arrive by mid to late afternoon. Behind this cold front, a much colder air mass that settles in as we enter the first half of the weekend. 

This will help drop our high temperatures from the low 30s Friday to the upper 20s by Saturday afternoon. Fortunately, Saturday is when we see the coldest air sitting overhead. By Sunday morning, this cold arctic air-mass will retreat to the east, allowing temperatures to climb back well above average into next week. Highs beginning Sunday will peak in the low 50s, with the potential for 60-degree weather by next Wednesday. If you're not a fan of the chill, just wait a few days!

More Sunshine Ahead, Snow Chances Arrive Late Thursday

More Sunshine Ahead:

Cloud cover kicks off our Wednesday thanks to a weak cold front sliding in from the northwest. Along with this morning's cloud cover does come a very slim chance for a passing flurry or two. 

But it won't be too long before we begin to see the sun emerge. In fact, the only difference between Tuesday's weather and the forecast slated for today is that our surface winds will be out of the northwest. This will not only keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, but it will also keep wind chill values in the 20s throughout the afternoon. With that being said, there will be plenty of opportunities to spend time outdoors. You'll just have to put on a few extra layers of clothing to fight off this afternoon's chill.

Late-Week Snow Potential: 

Clouds are expected to gather overnight Wednesday into Thursday ahead of our next storm system. Before we jump into the finer details, I'd like to say that forecast models really haven't had a good grasp on this storm system in particular over the last 24 to 48 hours. 

For the most part, it looks like we avoid snow chances as a whole during the first half of Thursday. Snow looks to arrive in a scattered fashion by mid to late afternoon, carrying on into the first half of Thursday night. With the fast-moving nature of this storm system, accumulations locally are trending to be minor. If you are working or planning to travel late Thursday, keep an eye out for a few slick spots. Following the departure of Thursday's system, our weather turns more quiet for Friday.

Weekend Temperature Swing:

Winter's "second curveball" this week comes in the form of a big-time cool-down as we head into the first half of the weekend. A short-lived blast of Arctic air will send temperatures tumbling into the single-digits by Saturday morning, with daily highs struggling to climb out of the 20s. 

The keyword however is "short-lived". As the trough that brings us this rush of Arctic air pushes east, the jet stream will retreat to the north by Sunday. This will allow warmer air to filter in from the southern plains and the deep south, bringing highs close to 50-degrees for both Sunday and next Monday!

Light snow returns late week

 

The chance for snow returns to northern Illinois late Thursday evening as another low pressure system moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes with light, accumulating snow possible by Friday morning.

A cold front passing through the Stateline Tuesday night will settle to the south of the area Wednesday morning.  The clear sky for most of the day Tuesday will begin to fill with a little more cloud cover overnight as the cold front nears.  Moisture remains

very limited so outside of a flurry or two, skies are expected to stay mostly cloudy.  As the cold front moves further away from northern Illinois Wednesday we should begin to see a little more sunshine during the afternoon.  Highs on Wednesday reach the mid and upper 30s, similar to high temperatures Tuesday.

Light snow is forecast to develop over the central Plains late Wednesday night and Thursday morning lifting northeast into central and northern Illinois Thursday afternoon.  It may not be a lot of snow locally, but with temperatures in the upper 20s Thursday afternoon and then teens Thursday night, any snow that does fall would more than likely stick to the roads during that time.  This could make roads a little slick for the late Thursday evening and Friday morning commute.  A second cold front will move through the area Friday afternoon with possibly another round of light snow moving in along the cold front.  A colder air mass will settle in behind the front Friday night and Saturday, with highs on Saturday only reaching the mid and upper 20s.  Northwest winds will increase as well, bringing wind chills down well below zero by Saturday morning.