Mainly Dry Tuesday, Showers Return Overnight into Wednesday

Long Mild Stretch:

Yesterday's high temperature of 78° marked the 8th day in a row that the Rockford International Airport has registered an above-average high. If this stretch doesn't come to an end today, it most certainly will tomorrow as our highs take a dip into the middle of the work week. 

Tuesday begins with "light jacket" weather as temps. are sitting on either side of the 50° mark. Clouds are expected to gather into the mid-day hours, resulting in a mostly cloudy afternoon. Eventually, this will lead to a chance for an isolated shower or two. But much of the daylight hours remain dry. Temperatures will end up a few degrees cooler than Monday, with most landing in the lower 70s. You should be good to go if you're planning on getting some grub over at Food Truck Tuesday!

Wednesday's Showers

Showers look to remain on and off into Wednesday as a low-pressure system spirals to our south. The nature of tomorrow's showers will be widespread at first, becoming more scattered as the morning progresses. As the storm system pulls away, so does our rain chances, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky for the afternoon hours. Winds will primarily be out of the east-northeast, cooling temperatures into the upper 60s.

Warming Back Up:

The Stateline will be placed under a weak "warm sector" on Thursday as an area of low-pressure slides to the our north. Ahead of the associated cold front, southwest flow will be in place, allowing highs to soar back to near 80°. Models disagreed on the timing of when the cold front is expected to pass on through. 

But I think it holds off enough to where we can manage to climb into the upper 70s for Friday. With the cold front does come a chance for a few showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms. For the most part, the severe threat looks to be focused more to the south of the area across central Illinois. The cooler air behind Friday's cold front will result in a dip in temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with highs peaking in the low to mid 60s.

Breezy Monday, Much Cooler This Week

Sun-Filled, But Breezy:

Despite the fact that the Stateline got in a few showers yesterday, highs across the area managed to climb into the lower 70s. Highs will climb back into the lower 70s today, but under plenty of sun. \

There is a breeze that develops out of the west-northwest by this afternoon, with gusts peaking between 25-30 mph. The combination of that breeze, plus the low relative humidity levels will result in an elevated fire risk this afternoon. If you're planning to burn, please use caution and keep it under control. Also, discard any smoking products properly. Winds remain breezy during the evening commute before simmering down overnight. This will make for a relatively quiet night with overnight lows falling into the 40s by sunrise Tuesday. 

Much Cooler This Time:

Fortunately, there won't be any talk about heat safety, oppressive humidity, or excessive heat this week. Temperatures after today look to trend 20°-30° cooler than the stretch of record highs we saw last week. Tuesday looks to kick off with plenty of sunshine, with clouds gathering up during the afternoon. 

With winds out of the east, temperatures look to end up a few degrees cooler, with most in the lower 70s. Our next shot at some rain will come during the day on Wednesday, which will drop temperatures by a few degrees for the middle of the week. However, thanks to a lifting warm front, temperatures bounce back into the upper 70s for both Thursday and Friday. With that warm front lifting through, we'll have to keep an eye out for a few isolated t-storms Thursday afternoon. High from there look to drop into the 60s for the upcoming weekend.

T-Storm Chances Return Late Friday, Cooler Times Ahead

Record-Breaking Heat:

Thursday marked the third day in a row where a daily record high was broken. Officially, the Rockford Airport climbed to 93-degrees, crushing the previous record high of 87° set back in 2011. 

According to the National Weather Service, this is the earliest the Stateline has witnessed a 3-day stretch of 90°+ weather since records began in 1905. Now, there is some good news moving forward, especially if you're tired of this grueling summer-like heat. We only have to deal with this heat and humidity for one more day as a slow-moving cold front will help filter in cooler weather pattern over the weekend and into next week.

T-Storm Chances Return:

Those heading out early Friday morning will feel a noticeable difference in humidity levels. With dew point temperatures sitting in the lower to mid 50s this morning, the air won't feel as humid as it did the past couple of mornings. 

Underneath a good amount of early-day sunshine, temperatures are expected to soar back to near 90° this afternoon. With that being said, it's looking more than likely we'll see a record high fall for the 4th consecutive day. As it stands this morning, the record high for May 13th is 88° which was set back in 1991. Shouldn't take much for us to break that this afternoon. Clouds are then expected to increase as the cold front approaches the region. Not too far behind will be the chance for a few thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.

By mid-late afternoon., storms look to fire up around the Mississippi River, slowly pushing east with time. This is mainly why our western counties have been placed under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather while places near and east of Rockford are under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). 

That’s because these storms will likely be weakening as they track eastward. If a storm were to become severe, the biggest concerns would be gusty winds and hail. A few thunderstorms may linger into the early hours of tonight, with skies remaining mostly cloudy into Saturday. It's over the weekend that cooler air filters into the region, allowing highs to fall to seasonable levels. 

Weekend Outlook:

The Stateline remains under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for Saturday. Guidance shows another round of showers and thunderstorms sparking up along the front as it slides through. It's areas along and east of I-39 that will have the best shot at organized activity. 

Once the front is to our east, skies will turn partly cloudy for the afternoon with highs peaking near 80-degrees. Sunday starts off on a dry note, with the potential for a few showers arriving by the afternoon. However, the cooler air that filters in behind Saturday's frontal passage will drop highs into the lower 70s for Sunday afternoon.

The hot and muggy pattern continues

Thursday marks three days in a row we’ve had record-breaking temperatures. We are going to get very close to either tying or breaking our record high Friday as well. Expect hot and humid conditions the remainder of Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will get back to a normal pattern as we head into Sunday. Daytime highs will only be right around the 70 degree mark most days next week, so if you don't like the July-like heat, enjoy the days to come.

Our previous record on May 12th was 87 degrees set back in 2011, today’s high of 92 beat that. Be sure to take breaks indoors or at least in the shade if you have to be out and about and make sure to stay hydrated as the dangerous heat wave continues one more day before “cooling” down a little bit on Saturday.

There is a heat advisory for Stephenson, Carroll, Whiteside, and Jo-Daviess Counties until 9pm but the heat is affecting everyone Stateline-wide yet again today. Heat index values will surge past the 100-degree mark in some areas Thursday afternoon and evening. 

Dew points are in the upper 60s/lower 70s making it feel very muggy outside again. Luckily winds will help mix things around Thursday. Winds will be between 10-20mph Wednesday evening, at times reaching as high as 25mph with gusts up to 35mph. 

A few very isolated showers could move in during peak heating of the day again today but we are not anticipating any severe weather as the Storm Prediction Center highlights areas just northwest of the Stateline. 

However, the SPC’s Day 2 Outlook has east areas under a slight risk (level two out of five) of seeing severe weather. They did push this back yet again, as these storms that develop ahead of a cold front, they will weaken as they travel further into the area which is why the remainder of the area is only under a marginal risk (level one out of five).

Timing on this will be during the late afternoon early evening hours (4-5pm) and then threats cut off by about 10pm. Smaller hail, gusty winds, thunder and downpours will be our concerns.

The SPC also has the entire Stateline under a marginal risk for Saturday though they are targeting areas southwest of us for best chances of severe weather. Make sure you stay weather aware the next few days with the chance of a few storms in the forecast.

Record Heat Continues, Severe T-Storm Chances Return Late-Friday

Record Stretch Continues:

The excessive heat that we experienced from May 10-12th back in 2011 is quickly becoming a distant memory as record highs continue to fall. Yesterday, the Rockford Airport came in with a high of 94°, shattering the previous record of 91°. 

This is the earliest that we've hit a high temperature of 94° or higher since early May of 1934. For those already looking for a break from this early season heat and humidity, that comes in the form of a strong cold front over the weekend. Until then, the excessive heat continues.

Another day of hazy sunshine lies ahead, with highs soaring into the low 90s for the 3rd straight day. All it takes is for our high to get above 87° and you can kiss another record high goodbye. With dew points sitting close to 70-degrees, you can expect heat index values to be mid 90.

Again, if you have to be outdoors for a prolonged period of time, please be safe. Make sure to drink PLENTY of fluids, take FREQUENT breaks in the shade, and use LOTS of sunscreen to avoid getting sun burn. Conditions remain fairly quiet under mostly clear skies, with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 60s by Friday morning. I think tonight will be a little more comfortable considering dew points are expected to drop into the mid to upper 60s. 

Late-Week Threat:

Much of Friday will be spent under a mixture of clouds and sunshine. However, a slow-moving cold front will bring the chance for a few showers, even the potential for a few thunderstorms by Friday evening and Friday night. Last night, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) eastward to include more of the region. 

The biggest concerns with any storm that goes severe will be damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and small to medium-sized hail. The actual cold front doesn't pass on through the region until Saturday night into Sunday morning. When it does, a cooler air-mass will settle in behind it, allowing highs to fall back towards seasonable levels. Highs over the weekend fall from the low 80s Saturday to the low 70s on Sunday, and it looks like that's where temperatures will remain into next week. 

Record-breaking heat continues

Wednesday as well, and that pattern? It’s going to continue, with the heat and humidity not letting up for the next few days. Our previous records were set back in 2011 of 91 on May 10th and 11th. We hit 93 yesterday and today. Make sure to stay safe, do NOT spend long hours outdoors if you do not have to, drink PLENTY of fluids, and use LOTS of sunscreen to avoid sun burns. Excessive heat is very dangerous and you need to take these precautions.

Temperature highs Wednesday were in the mid to lower 90s across the entire Stateline with heat index values even higher than that. There is a heat advisory for Whiteside County (far southwest areas in the Stateline) in effect until 7pm but the heat is affecting everyone Stateline-wide. 

The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 3 Outlook has east areas in the Stateline under a marginal risk (level one out of five) and west areas under a slight risk (level two out of five) on chances of seeing severe weather Friday. We will have to watch the evening and night hours for a few strong to severe storms to develop ahead of a cold front. Our threats right now are lower, including heavy rains, gusty winds, and some thunder/lightning. This will be our next best chance of rain.

Winds are not as gusty compared to yesterday, but they are still between about 10-20mph Wednesday evening. Overnight, winds are expected to stay between 5-10mph.

Eventually temperatures will feel more seasonal out there as we head into the weekend. Daytime highs will only be in the lower 70s, still slightly above normal but we will no longer be dealing with the 90s.

Excessive Heat Sticks Around, Few More Records Could Fall Before the Weekend

Record Warmth Tuesday:

Dangerous summer-like heat made it's presence well known Tuesday afternoon as high temperatures soared into the lower 90s. 

The high in Rockford reached 92 degrees, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees set back in 2011. This type of excessive heat comes a month ahead of schedule as Rockford typically doesn't see it's first 90-degree day until June 11th. With that being said, this heat and humidity doesn't look to budge much over the next few days as strong ridging aloft remains firmly in place.

Another Hot Day Ahead:

Wednesday kicks off with potentially record warmth as temperatures look to fall into the lower 70s. The current highest minimum temperature for May 10th is 65-degrees set back in 1979. This warm start to the day is a sign for things to come as temperatures will quickly soar into the upper 80s and low 90s for the second straight day. 

As of this morning's forecast, our forecast high of 91-degrees would tie the record high for May 11th which was also set back in 2011.  And just like Tuesday, the heat index could reach the mid to upper 90s area wide Wednesday. Sunshine looks to dominate our skies from start to finish. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, especially around the mid-day hours. No issues for the evening commute as conditions remain dry. Partly cloudy skies stick around for the overnight hours with temperature again falling into the lower 70s.

Excessive Heat Sticks Around: 

Record warmth will be achievable once again on Thursday as highs soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s. More of the same can be expected as skies remain sunny, with a bit of southerly breeze developing by the afternoon. 

Highs to end the work week will peak in the upper 80s before cooling a bit over the weekend. A cold front swinging through Saturday night into Sunday will drop our highs into the lower 70s for not only Sunday, but into the early portion of next week. Until then, make sure heat safety is a big priority, especially if you or someone you know has to be outside for a prolonged period of time. Stay hydrated, dress lightly, and take frequent breaks in the shade!