Sun-Filled Start, Few Showers for Thanksgiving

Split November:

Temperature-wise, November has been split right down the middle. After a week and a half of being on the unseasonable warm side of the spectrum, the last ten days have been the complete opposite. But I will say, Sunday's high temperature of 37° was a trend in the right direction. Reason-being, this commenced a warming trend that will be present for much of Thanksgiving holiday week. 

Sun-Filled Monday:

Monday begins with a bit of a chill as temperatures to start will be sitting in the mid to upper 20s. But with plenty of sun in the forecast, and most of the day featuring a west to southwesterly wind, highs are set to peak in the lower 40s.

Forecast models do show our next cold front sliding through during the mid to late afternoon hours. However, this cold front is moisture starved, meaning it will slide through the region without a trace of rain to its name. But this cold front does spell another chilly night as temperatures are primed to drop into the lower 20s prior to sunrise Tuesday. Tuesday features more of the same. Just a slight uptick in temperatures as highs for most will land closer to the 50-degree mark.

Thanksgiving Forecast:

Riding settles in prior to Thanksgiving, allowing this dry stretch to carry on into Wednesday. With southwest flow still in place, temperatures will once again reach the upper 40s. 

Clouds then begin to build in Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as our next storm system tracks across the midsection of the lower 48. This does spell the opportunity for some precipitation for the upcoming holiday. Thankfully, guidance keeps temperatures warm enough for our chances to fall as rain. It looks like Thursday's chances will be scattered and mainly confined to the evening and overnight hours. This comes with a weak cold front Thursday night, resulting in cooler temperatures on Black Friday. 

Temperatures warm back near average Thanksgiving week

 

There have been plenty of chills throughout the Midwest over the last several days as high temperatures fell 20 degrees, or lower, below average! Friday and Saturday high temperatures failed to reach 30 degrees, with wind chills that were stuck in the teens and single digits. Temperatures Sunday afternoon reached the mid 30s, still below average but quite a bit warmer than the past several days.

The warming trend will continue as the strong ridge of over Alaska, which pushed an unseasonably cold air mass down across the lower 48, breaks down. This will turn winds within the jet stream a little more zonal - or from west to east - allowing a milder, Pacific air mass to move across the Midwest.

Highs on Monday will reach the low 40s, with the middle to upper 40s expected Tuesday and Wednesday. It's possible that some areas Wednesday could reach the low 50s. Temperatures for Thanksgiving Day could also warm into the low 50s, but that will depend on the timing of a cold front. If the front comes through earlier highs Thursday may only warm to the low 40s. Temperatures will briefly dip to the upper 30s/low 40s for Friday, but warm again into the middle to upper 40s by the weekend.  

Flurries/light snow expected Saturday

 

It is a bitterly cold start to our Saturday as temperatures have fallen back into the teens, but wind chills have settled into the single digits. Winds have been gusty from the west, now shifting around to the southwest early Saturday. This is ahead of yet another cold front that'll swing through mid-morning, passing to our east by the afternoon.

Skies did clear briefly during the overnight, but cloud cover has been quick to move in leaving our skies mostly cloudy. As the cold front moves in mid-morning, flurries and scattered snow showers are expected to develop across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Little to no accumulation is expected, but the gusty wind could cause visibility to lower a bit as the snow is falling. Visibility has fallen out west in Iowa where the snow is currently falling. Also, with temperatures in the 20s any snow that does fall is more likely to stick to surfaces. This may cause some concerns for travel as roads could be a little slick later today and evening.

Once the cold front passes, flurries can be expected throughout the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low teens under a partly cloudy sky. Wind chills early Sunday will fall below zero briefly, before warming slightly by the afternoon.  

Single-Digit Chills, Warming Back Up Thanksgiving Week

Bitterly Cold Friday:

Unseasonably cold has been the name of the game and it looks to remain that way as we jump into the upcoming weekend. Behind yesterday's frontal passage, temperatures early Friday morning have fallen into the upper teens/low 20s. 

What makes it feel worse out there is the chilly westerly wind that is in place, which has allowed wind chill values to register in the lower teens. For the kids that are heading to school this morning, make sure they are dressed in multiple layers. If possible, keep them in the car where it's warm so they are not standing in the cold. As for yourselves, also bundle up! As this cold Arctic air continues to filter in, temps and wind chills don't look to improve as we head into the afternoon. In fact, today's gusty westerly wind will limit high temperatures to the low to mid 20s under a mostly cloudy sky.

Getting Colder:

Another upper-level disturbance looks to sink down from Canada Saturday, bringing with it our next cold front and our next Arctic blast. In a similar fashion to Thursday's cold front, there will be enough low-level moisture for a few snow showers. Minor accumulations can be expected. 

When you factor in Saturday's cloud cover, snow chances, and gusty northwesterly wind, highs will once again be limited to the mid to upper 20s. So, the same way you prepared for today's cold is the same way you'll have to prepare for Saturday's cold forecast. The coldest air with this weekend's Arctic blast aims to move overhead Saturday night, placing most spots in the lower teens come Sunday morning. If there is enough clearing, it's possible that a spot or two will wake up in the upper single-digits. As I mentioned in yesterday's blog, N. Illinois and S.Wisconsin hasn't seen single-digit temperatures since early March.

Thanksgiving Week:

Relief begins to filter in as winds turn more to the southwest on Sunday. Highs as of a result look to just make it into the lower 30s. Despite another cold front sliding through Monday, the warming trend will carry on into the days leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday. 

As for Thanksgiving itself, forecast models do show a late-week storm sliding into the western Great lakes from the Upper Midwest. However, since we're still more than 4 days out, forecast models strongly disagree on the placement of the low, the strength of the storm, timing of precipitation, and the precipitation type. Finer details such as that will be hashed out over the weekend and during the early portions of next week. But just know that there is the possibility for precipitation during the Thursday-Friday time frame. Temperature-wise, highs on Thanksgiving look to peak in the low to mid 40s. 

Snow Squalls Possible Today, Arctic Chill Filters In Overnight

Snowy Pattern Continues:

In a similar fashion to Tuesday, snow showers stuck around for a majority of the day yesterday. All in all, the Rockford International Airport picked up 0.8" which believe it or not ties the record daily snowfall for November 16th set back in 2014. The snowy trend as of late is all set to continue into it's 3rd consecutive day thanks to a potent cold front sliding through. 

Snow Squalls Possible:

The snow chances that are in the works today will be widely scattered in nature, but could also feature a quick bursts of snow and gusty winds. You may have heard of this term in the past but this is something we like to call a snow squall. 

Squalls are often associated with strong cold fronts such as the one that is set to pass through today and could result in near to white-out conditions. Although snow accumulations in a squall amount to an inch or less, the combination of gusty winds, falling temperatures and quick reductions in visibility can cause extremely dangerous conditions for those on the roadways. Keep that in mind if you plan to travel during the latter half of the day. Ahead of the front passage, temperatures will slowly manage to reach the low 30s before falling into the upper teens overnight. 

Brutally Cold End:

Thursday's frontal passage also helps spill in a brutally cold Arctic air-mass that looks to stick around into the upcoming weekend. Both Friday and Saturday feature highs in the 20s. 

But when you factor in the rather chilly west-northwesterly wind that will be place, wind chill values will struggle to climb out of the single-digits. All I have to say is BUNDLE UP FOLKS! The coldest air will be overhead Saturday night into Sunday morning as temperatures will be flirting with the single-digits. It's definitely been a while since the Rockford Airport has seen this type of cold in the forecast. 

In fact, you would have to go all the way back to March 12th to find the last time single-digit temperatures hit the Stateline. Thankfully, improvements in the temperature department begin to filter in as we jump into Thanksgiving week. With a somewhat warmer wind in place, expect high temperatures to climb out of the chilly 20s and into the 40s starting Monday.

Single digit wind chills likely Friday morning

 

Temperatures are going to fall in a big way behind a cold front Thursday night, bringing down the coldest air we've felt all season! It'll be a far cry from the record 76 degrees just last Thursday!

Highs on Wednesday warmed to only the mid 30s, climbing only three degrees from the morning low of 32 degrees. That's where temperatures sit for most Wednesday evening. Skies will remain filled with cloud cover through the night, but some breaks may allow temperatures to dip into the mid 20s by daybreak Thursday.

Whatever clearing does take place during that time will quickly be replaced with cloud cover as a strong cold front nears from the northwest. Even though moisture will be a little less Thursday than what it was Wednesday or Tuesday, scattered snow showers are possible as the front moves through. The heaviest of the snow, when combined with a gusty west wind, could drop visibility down during the afternoon and evening commute.

Temperatures will fall through Friday morning, down into the upper teens and low 20s. Wind chills, however, will quickly fall into single digits Friday morning as air temperatures rise into the low 20s. Wind chills Saturday morning are expected to once again fall into the single digits.

Slick/Foggy AM Commute, Few More Snow Chances Lie Ahead

Early Season Snow:

From a meteorological perspective, it hasn't been a bad start to the snow season. Between the snow that fell this past Saturday and the snowfall from Tuesday, the Rockford Airport has observed 1.5" of snow. Now, we're not out of the woods just yet as guidance has introduced a few more chances this week that we'll need to keep an eye on.    

Slick/Foggy Commute:

While the snow that fell yesterday didn't last long that's to November's sun angle, the leftover moisture may make for slick spots during the morning commute. Especially since our regional temperatures are sitting at or below the freezing mark this morning. To be safe, remain extra cautious while traveling bridges and overpasses as those tend to ice up  at a faster rate than the main roads surrounded by the ground and soil. Another thing to keep in mind if you plan to travel this morning is that the amount of low-level moisture could also lead to some dense fog.

More Snow on the Way:

In a similar fashion to Tuesday, snow showers will work their way into the forecast thanks to a weak disturbance sliding through. Scattered snow chances look to start up during the late-morning hours, lasting through much of the afternoon and evening. Overall, accumulations for most will fall in the trace to 1" range. 

Highs because of today's cloud cover, chilly west-northwesterly wind, and of course the snow chances will be limited once again to the mid to upper 30s. A cold front coming through Thursday looks to bring a third round of snow showers to the area. This time, the potential for snow squalls comes along for the ride. As a reminder, snow squalls are short but intense burst of snow accompanied by strong winds that can produce whiteout or near whiteout conditions. Also with Thursday's cold front comes a very cold air-mass that will send temperatures tumbling ahead of the weekend.

Turning Very Cold:

Friday and Saturday are to be brutally cold when compared to November standards. Normally at this point in the year, average highs are sitting in the mid to upper 40s. Well, highs Friday afternoon are currently forecasted to peak in the low to possibly mid 20s, while Saturday’s not to be much better than the upper 20s.  It's not until Sunday that we begin to see slight improvements slide into the temperature department.

With winds turning more to the southwest, highs will once again climb back into the upper 20s, with 30s and 40s ticketed for the early portions of Thanksgiving week. As a matter of fact, the latest 8-14 day long-range outlook showcases a trend in which brings above-average temperatures to the area around Thanksgiving. 

Fingers crossed folks.