Light showers continue Tuesday evening

 

Rainfall totals from late last night to Tuesday have remained mostly under a quarter of an inch, although some locations did receive a little more than that. While it isn't much to put a dent in the rainfall deficit that has developed over the last couple of months, it was nice to get a little bit of rain.

Scattered rain showers will continue to rotate around a larger area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this evening. The rain won't be much, adding up to an additional tenth to two tenths of an inch for some. Showers should begin to wrap up between 8pm and 9pm with mostly cloudy skies overnight.

Sunshine returns Wednesday but we will see a few clouds build up during the afternoon. There remains a very small chance for a late day shower both Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday's chance comes with the arrival of a backdoor cold front. Temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will warm into the low 80s. 

Unusual "April-Like" Pattern Brings Severe Weather Back to the Deep South

An unusual weather pattern is currently taking shape across the lower 48. One that is set to bring multiple rounds of severe weather to the deep south and to the southeast United States.

We use the word "unusual" because this is typically the time of the year in which the jet stream retreats to the north, allowing the transition to summer to occur. 

Mother nature says "No, no, no! Not this year!".   

Thanks to an rather amplified and organized subtropical jet, the severe threat over the next few days will end up south of climatology. In fact, this upcoming weather pattern is something we normally see in April, not in the middle of June.

Areas from northeast Texas to extreme southeast South Carolina are under a level 2 slight risk today. Large hail and damaging winds are likely. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

The risk increases a smidge into Wednesday. A level 3 enhanced risk has been introduced from northeast Louisiana to southeast Georgia. In a similar fashion to today's severe threat, storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

Forecast models do show the jet stream finally lifting northward sometime next week, which may result in a more active stretch for the central plains.

Cool Stretch Lingers, Shower Chances Also Linger

Rather Cool Stretch:

Sunday's backdoor cold front/low-pressure combo has left us under quite the cool spell as we enter the middle of June. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday came in 5°-10° below average. We even managed to break our daily record low for June 12th with Rockford falling to a chilly 41-degrees. With low pressure slowly spinning to our east, this cooler stretch will continue for at least one more day. Along for the ride, our next shot at some rain! 

Tuesday's Showers:

Tuesday will be relatively similar to how this past Sunday panned out. Thick cloud cover, a chilly northwest breeze, and passing showers will keep temperatures unseasonably chilly, with most failing to eclipse the 70-degree mark. 

For the most part, areas along and east of I-39 will have the best shot at seeing a more widespread light rainfall. Even if you live west of the interstate, a few hit-or-miss showers can be expected. So I still would plan on packing the umbrella just to be on the safe side. A few showers may linger into the early portions of tonight. However, as this low pressure system pulls away, conditions are expected to slow dry out into Wednesday. Temperature-wise, expect lows to fall into the low 50s come sunrise. 

Back to the 80s:

High pressure settles in behind the departing low, resulting in a more sunshine for Wednesday. This will also give temperatures a lot more room to climb, with most landing on either side of the 80° mark. 

A bit more cloud cover is in the works for Thursday thanks to a backdoor cold front sliding into the region from the north. One or two of these clouds may utilize the environment that tags along with the front, resulting in a slight chance for a storm late in the afternoon or evening. Otherwise, expect another warm afternoon with highs in the low 80s. Despite a wind shift to the northeast Friday, highs will still be able to peak in the low 80s under plenty of sun.

Record low temperature Monday morning

 

A cold core low pressure system remains stationary over the Great Lakes. This has resulted in an unseasonably cold air mass moving into the Stateline the last couple of days. Temperatures Saturday afternoon warmed into the low to mid 80s but dropped into the 50s Sunday afternoon. Officially, the high temperature for Sunday will go down as 70 degrees, but that was achieved shortly after Midnight. Colder air, gusty northeast winds, and cloud cover kept temperatures quite a bit cooler for the afternoon.

Despite the cloud cover Sunday night overnight lows fell into the 40s. Rockford dipped to 41 degrees early Monday morning, breaking the previous record low temperature of 44 degrees set all the back in 1913! Thankfully temperatures Monday night won't be quite as cold, but it will be chilly. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 50s with highs on Tuesday warming into the upper 60s and low 70s.

 

Rain Continues to Lack, Pattern Remains Somewhat Unsettled

Lack of Rainfall:

I have to say folks, Sunday's rainfall was rather disappointing. At the end of the day, the Rockford Airport was only able to observe a trace, leaving our total for the month of June at a whopping 0.16". What makes matters worse is that June is climatologically known as the 3rd wettest month of the year and we're closing in on a 2" rainfall deficit.

Early Week Showers:

Looking ahead, the work week kicks off with a few light rain chances thanks to a slow-moving storm system over the Great Lakes. Monday begins with a decent amount of sun but also a bit of a chill. Those who plan to step out the door early will walk out to temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. 

As moisture spills in from the north, cloud cover will file in during the afternoon, which may result in a few widely-scattered showers. Another piece of energy is shown swinging into the region overnight, perhaps allowing the coverage of tonight's showers to somewhat increase into early Tuesday. Although guidance didn't show much instability or "atmospheric juice" being present, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. 

Cloud cover hangs tight for Tuesday. With little to no movement in the low pressure system over the Great Lakes, expect another round of widely-scattered showers to be possible. Temperature-wise, more of the same with most peaking in the low 70s. 

By Wednesday, we finally see this system push away from the Stateline, allowing a ridge of high pressure to slide in from the west. Conditions not only dry out but warm back up into the second half of the work week, with highs peaking in the low 80s. It's not until late Friday that models show a somewhat unsettled weather pattern moving back in. However, there are a few uncertainties regarding the storm system itself, hence why chances are isolated for now. 

Little Warmer Today, Rain Chances Increase Saturday Night

Comfy Friday Ahead:

For the second day in a row, mother nature was very kind in giving us beautiful wall-to-wall sunshine, comfortable temperatures, and little to no humidity. In fact, this recent 2-day stretch of cooler temperatures lands 10-15 degrees cooler from the previous Wednesday and Thursday. So again, I have to tip my hat and say thank you mother nature! 

With high pressure remaining close by, there is little change to our forecast as we jump into Friday. Skies will be filled with hazy sunshine, and dew points will sit rather comfortably in the 40s. 

However, with winds blowing more out of the west-northwest direction, we can expect highs to peak in the low 80s this afternoon. The weather will continue to remain quiet overnight under a partly cloudy sky, with temperatures landing in the upper 50s.

Drought Worsens:

With how dry our weather pattern has been over the last few weeks, it comes as no surprise to see the drought situation worsen across the state. A glance at the latest Drought Monitor shows nearly all of Illinois under some sort of drought, with roughly 50% of the state now under a Moderate Drought. For the most part, Saturday will be dry. But as the day progresses, clouds will slowly increase as a storm system approaches from the northwest. Come Saturday night, a cold front will be in the vicinity of the Stateline, bringing with our next chance for rain!

Weekend Rain?:

Chances begin in a scattered-fashion very late in the evening on Saturday, with showers lingering into the first half of Sunday. With how long it takes for this system to pull away from the region, it's quite possible that we may see a few showers carry on into early Sunday afternoon. 

While this upcoming chance may not be the soaking rainfall that we are looking for, this may be enough to put a small dent in our ongoing drought situation. And if things line up a bit better higher up in the atmosphere, we may see a little bit more than modeled. Because of said cold front, our high temperatures over the weekend take a big hit, falling from the mid 80s Saturday to the upper 60s Sunday. 

Temperature remain cool into early next week, but warm right back up as the week progresses.

Drought conditions expand, Rain showers move in for the weekend

 

The latest drought monitor continues to highlight the lack of rain for not only the Stateline, but across the Midwest as dry and moderate drought conditions expand. Nearly the entire state of Illinois is considered abnormally dry, with just over 50 percent of the state dealing with moderate drought.

In Wisconsin, moderate drought conditions were quick to expand and now cover just over 25 percent of the state. Rainfall chances through the end of the

week are low, but there is some hope for rain coming late Saturday night and Sunday.

Temperatures Friday afternoon will warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s under a partly cloudy sky. Hazy sunshine will continue before upper-level winds turn more to the northwest, shifting the higher-level smoke out of the region. Surface winds will turn to the southwest Friday night into Saturday which will help bring temperatures into the middle 80s Saturday afternoon.

A cold front coming in from the north Saturday evening has been showing signs of slowing down, meaning it now likely won't come through until late Saturday night. As a result, it looks like most of Saturday will remain dry. Moisture will slowly increase through the evening, but I don't think quite as much as our forecast models are suggesting. As a result, we may end up on the lower end of rainfall totals with most locations falling under half an inch of rain. If, however, conditions line up just right within the jet stream, we could see those totals a little higher. Right now, the rainfall range is from a couple tenths of an inch up to half an inch.

As the cold front passes Sunday morning, low pressure will be moving through central Illinois. It then becomes cut-off from the main flow of the jet stream keeping rain showers lingering Sunday afternoon and Monday. Highs on Sunday will only warm to the upper 60s, with the low 70s expected Monday.