High and dry through part of the weekend, humid with storms to follow

It was a phenomenal day in the Stateline with afternoon highs in the low-80s for many with plentiful sunshine and low humidity. The high temperature reached 81° in Rockford, only our 3rd day reaching that mark since July 16th!

Clear skies will cause temperatures to drop overnight to the mid-50s with a chance for some patchy fog, likely in less coverage than we saw early Thursday morning.

Sunshine returns again tomorrow, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 80s this time around. Winds turn a bit out of the Southeast, bringing the slight increase in temperatures. Humidity remains low, with dew points in the low 60s at the most.

Rain chances are few and far between, as we stay "high and dry" with high pressure keeping our skies dry for a few days. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting zero rainfall through Saturday, and that makes perfect sense given our lack of moisture and weather systems in that time.

But moisture and weather systems begin to work in as early as Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and a few isolated rumbles of thunder will be the main feature Sunday, but we may see some stronger storms move in by Monday evening. Tuesday and Wednesday look drier with a general lull in precipitation compared to the previous two days, but more storms may be possible Thursday.

High temperatures will slowly start to climb up through the end of the weekend as rain chances and moisture start to work in as well. Scattered storms may be possible starting Sunday, with more rain and storm chances each day through mid-week.

Sunshine to dominate northern Illinois skies the next few days

Cloud cover held strong Wednesday, leaving high temperatures in the upper 70s. That marks the 4th time since July 15th where highs at the Rockford Airport failed to touch the 80° mark.

 

 

More of the same can be expected the next few days, minus the expansive cloud cover as high pressure slides into the Great Lakes. Remember, when you think of high pressure, think nice weather. 

The sinking air under a high pressure system limits cloud growth and development. Overall,  perfect weather for those heading to Dinner on the Dock at Prairie Street, day 3 of the Stephenson County Fair, or day 1 of the Lee County Fair & 4-H Show!

From there, forecast models continue to show our next dose of a "ring of fire" pattern setting up during the first half of next week. This will not only allow above-average heat and humidity to return, but also daily thunderstorm chances. High temperatures will end up in the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, then potential at the 90° mark on Wednesday.

Sunshine returns tomorrow with warmer weather to follow

A passing cold front overnight into this morning has shifted much of the rain and storms down across Central Illinois. We have seen a few very isolated sprinkles near and South of I-88, but many remained dry through Wednesday afternoon under overcast skies. That also kept a lid on our temperatures, with many spots only reaching the upper 70s.

But the cold front is bringing in cooler and more comfortable air. This will clear out much of the cloud cover by tomorrow morning, allowing for a cooler and pleasant night with overnight lows in the upper 50s for some.

High pressure moving in following the cold front will keep us relatively cool and clear for a few more days, with afternoon highs slowly climbing one day into the next through the weekend. Perfect weather for the Lee County fair that kicks off Thursday. Our next rain chances move in by Sunday as heat and humidity begins to build back in.

Surface high pressure is also characterized by weak steering and flow aloft, which will act to keep our smoke and haze around a bit longer into next few days. Much of this smoke will be aloft and not down near the surface, but it will bring a hazy look to our skies with more vibrant sunrises and sunsets in the days ahead.

Following our surface high pressure moving out by Sunday, ridging aloft will build to the West and shift closer. This will also bring a more active pattern our way with an active WNW pattern of flow aloft. Higher storm chances will be the result, as we will likely be along the leading edge of this ridge. Heat and humidity will also return given the close proximity of the ridge.

Hot and humid weather will be the story starting Sunday onward, with near daily storm chances. Each threat for storms is a little uncertain as to exactly when it moves in, but a few small disturbances in the atmosphere will aid to bring in potential complexes of storms at times starting Monday. In advance of this, high pressure keeps us sunny and comfortable for a few more days, with afternoon highs slowly climbing each day through the weekend.

Sunnier times follow Wednesday's scattered rain chance

Those who went to the Sinnissippi bike path for Food Truck Tuesday had to dodge a few storms while diving in on some delicious grub.

The rainfall left behind was enough for Rockford to see its 10th day this month with measurable rainfall, leaving our monthly total at 7.32". 

As it stands, this is the 6th wettest July on record. You would have to go back to 1952 to find Rockford's wettest where the airport picked up a whopping 11.46" during the first 23 days of the month. With that said, we don't jump into the month of August until next Thursday, and there are at least a few chances for rain still ahead of us, perhaps coming as early as Wednesday morning.

Wednesday begins with a good amount of clouds as a cold front slides through the region. With this cloud cover will come the chance for a few passing showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two. 

The good news is that the sun should peek through the clouds by lunchtime, with skies turning partly cloudy for the rest of the day. Afternoon highs are to top out near the 80° mark, and humidity should be noticeably lower than earlier in the week. 

Sunnier times are ahead as high pressure both at the surface and aloft take control. Thursday features lots of sunshine, comfortable humidity levels, and highs in the upper 70s, close to 80°. Similar conditions will be felt during the day Friday. 

 

All week long, the long-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center have been indicating a high chance for above-average temperatures to finish out July and to begin the month of August.  

The previously mentioned ridge of high pressure will help transport a much warmer and airmass into the plains, allowing highs to climb into the upper 80s Sunday, then into the low 90s Monday and Tuesday. If highs were to hit the 90° either day, that would mark our first 90° day since June 25th. 

Scattered rain chances, hazy skies continue into midweek

Tuesday and Wednesday look to end up very similar to how the start of the work week panned out. 

With the base of a trough sitting nearby, the chance for scattered showers and storms will increase prior to the evening commute. Downpours, gusty winds, and lightning will be threats again.

Most of the day however will feature partly cloudy skies with highs peaking in the low 80s. We may see storm chances carry on into Wednesday morning as a cold front slides through the region. 

Chances remain isolated for Wednesday afternoon, with highs dipping back near the 80° mark. Although partial sunshine is set to stick around the next few days, wildfire smoke drifting in from the west will make skies look more milky/hazy.

As of this moment, it doesn't look like this plume of smoke will have a major impact on air quality. Those who are unusually sensitive to particle pollution, consider reducing your activity level or shorten the amount of time you are active outdoors. 

Temperatures and humidity levels slowly climb into the upcoming weekend. We look to hold on to a partly cloudy sky on Saturday, with temperatures warming back into the mid 80s. By Sunday and Monday, an influx of warmer air will leave highs near the 90°. Storm chances may accompany this rise in heat and humidity. Stay tune for updates!

 
 

27 tornadoes confirmed from the July 15th Derecho

It's been one week since a derecho swept across the Rockford and Chicago areas. 

In the process, producing multiple areas of straight-line wind damage and a record-breaking number of Q.L.C.S or embedded tornadoes. 

According to the National Weather Service, three more tornadoes were added to the tornado count, placing the daily total at 27 tornadoes. 

This surpasses the previous records for the NWS Chicago forecast area of 22 tornadoes that touched down on June 30, 2014, and March 31, 2023. Three of these tornadoes occurred in our forecast area, all being rated EF-0. This includes the Byron, Davis Junction, and southern Winnebago County tornadoes. 

EF-0 tornadoes are ones with wind speeds ranging from 65 to 85 MPH. Winds this strong can cause minor damage to roofs and chimneys, but well-built structures usually remain unharmed.

Scattered storms return Tuesday; Hazy skies remain

 

The storms from Monday afternoon have come to an end leaving hazy skies in their wake. The haze is the result of wildfire smoke from Canada and out West. This smoke has become caught in the jet stream, moving down through most of the Plains and Midwest over the last several days. While some of the smoke has reached the surface in some parts of the Plains, it may remain aloft as it sits across the Stateline. Should some of the smoke reach the surface, especially mid-week, you may notice a smokey smell. Either way, those that are sensitive to particle pollution may want to limit their time outdoors.

You'll also notice more of a vibrant sunrise and sunset in the days to come, just like the sunset we experienced Monday night.

Along with the haze and smoke Tuesday, thunderstorms are set to return ahead of a southward advancing cold front. The storms will begin to develop early afternoon, similar to what occurred Sunday and Monday. Storm coverage, though, will likely become more widespread as a cold front sinks south from Wisconsin. Overall, severe parameters are low in the atmosphere, but some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

As the front passes through the Stateline Tuesday night, we'll hold on to a slight chance for showers heading into Wednesday morning. There remains an isolated shower/storm chance through the first half of the day Wednesday, but higher storm chances will sink south with the front through the afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will remain in the low 80s, rising to right around 80 degrees for Wednesday.