Active pattern brings plenty of rain chances to the Stateline

 

A mix of sun and clouds greeted us Wednesday afternoon bringing temperatures into the mid and upper 50s, with Rockford's high reaching 58 degrees. The average high for late March is the low 50s. Partly sunny skies will stick around through the evening with a gradual increase in clouds through Midnight. This will keep temperatures on a steady decline through the night, dropping on either side of 40 degrees overnight.

A current scan of radar shows light rain showers to the northwest over the Plains and Midwest diving southeast. These showers have developed along an elevated frontal boundary that stretches northwest to southeast across the Midwest. The rain will be battling some drier air locally, so any rain that does move in should be rather light and scattered.

Scattered showers will continue into Thursday morning before drying out by the afternoon. Highs on Thursday will warm into the mid-50s. We remain dry through most of Thursday night before a warm front lifts back north Friday morning. As it does a few elevated scattered thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise. These storms are expected to remain below severe limits locally, but some of the stronger cores could have some small hail.

Highs on Friday will warm quickly into the 70s but will also come with a strong southwest wind. Winds will gust 35-40 mph throughout the afternoon and evening. 

The warm front then stalls heading into the weekend where temperatures north of the front will remain quite chilly, but south of the front will remain quite warm. The Stateline will be sandwiched in-between. If we remain on the warmer side of the front temperatures will warm back close to 70 degrees, but we would also see a slightly better chance for some thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. 

  

Light rain chances return tonight, better chances into Friday

Tuesday was a little more enjoyable as winds weren't much of an issue throughout the day. Wednesday will be somewhat similar, with clouds during the morning giving way to some afternoon sunshine. Despite there being a light northwesterly wind in place, afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 50s. 

Another weak wave sweeps in overnight, increasing our cloud cover but also bringing a slight chance for isolated sprinkles or showers. 

Forecast models keep the better chance for organized showers to our south and west, though we can expect the possibility for light showers to continue into midday. With that being said, cloud cover will stick around for much of Thursday, with afternoon highs once again reaching the mid 50s.  

From there, all eyes will be on a warm front which is scheduled to lift into the Stateline from the south Thursday night into Friday morning. Accompanying the frontal passage will be the chance for a scattered round of showers and storms. 

 

 

Locally, the severe threat is very low, though small-sized hail, brief wind gusts, and heavy downpours will be possible with the strongest storms. There is a slightly higher chance for organized strong to severe storms to our south and west. 

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas from southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri to southwest Indiana under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather. Hail being the biggest concern. Winds behind the front be out of the south and southwest, gusting up to 30-35 mph. This will allow afternoon highs to surge into the low to possibly mid 70s by Friday afternoon under partly cloudy skies.

Widespread rain showers make a return toward the weekend

 While we have remained dry despite isolated shower chances the last couple of days, more chances will return for the middle and end of the week. Starting overnight, a few isolated showers will track along the same area as last night's. These will remain primarily South and West of Rockford, but a slim chance for an isolated shower will remain possible.

Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday with temperatures climbing a bit higher again. Highs will reach well into the mid-50s with sunshine early on and more fair-weather cumulus clouds during the afternoon. Wednesday night into Thursday will again bring showers, but this time a bit higher in coverage. These could persist into Thursday morning, but high temperatures will again reach the mid-50s. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible Thursday night as a warm front lifts through the region. The strongest of those storms may produce some small hail.

That warm front will clear the state line to the North by the afternoon, helping to boost temperatures near 70° for the afternoon highs. This may also temporarily bring a drier period of time for the daytime hours, but widespread rain returns Friday night and Saturday.

The weather system bringing those widespread showers could also produce a few thunderstorms Saturday. The exact times of when steadiest rain will fall over the weekend is still up in the air but expect more frequent waves of rain for both Saturday and Sunday. Late into Sunday, much cooler air will begin filtering in, possibly flipping things over to a wintry mix by the evening as temperatures quickly drop to the upper 20s by Monday morning.

You may have seen a few mentions on social media about our storm potential this weekend. The expansive weather system will provide a chance for some storms and even possibly severe weather, but that focus will be primarily well South of our area. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlights mainly Central and Southern Illinois for the highest potential of severe weather at this time. Barring any major shifts in the track of our system, I do not expect widespread severe weather in our region this weekend.

Winds take a "chill pill" the next few days, isolated showers Tuesday night

If you're thinking this month has been awfully windy, you're not wrong! 21 of March's days have come in with a peak gust at or above 20 mph. 9 of those days registered above the 40 mph mark. So yes, this March has been extremely windy. Those who are like me and are seeking a break from the wind, we're in luck.  

 

 

Winds take a "chill pill" the next few days, remaining under the 20 mph mark. Today, winds will be out of the northwest, limiting highs to the upper 40s. Also a factor will be cloud cover as we can expect cloudiness for much of the morning, though some sun will make an appearance this afternoon. 

 

A secondary disturbance aims to take a similar track to the one that came through overnight. This will help blanket the Stateline skies with clouds briefly while also bringing a low chance for showers. The highest chance will reside to the south and west of Rockford, closer to the Davenport area. Conditions dry out prior to the morning commute, leaving us partly cloudy for the rest of Wednesday. The additional sunshine will bring afternoon highs back in the low 50s.

Isolated showers possible amid warming trend this week

 It was yet another windy day in the Stateline with peak winds between 35-45 mph for most of the area, particularly early this morning. Winds will quickly subside into the evening as the low-pressure system responsible for the wind will drift further away.

Cloud cover will be on the rise with a subtle increase in moisture overnight into early tomorrow morning. This may produce a few very spotty showers overnight and early Tuesday, primarily Southwest of Rockford. The further North and East will remain a bit drier. Depending on temperatures while precipitation arrives, there's a slim chance for a few snow flurries as well.

A similar pattern will be possible Tuesday afternoon and overnight, with slim chances for rain mostly Southwest of Rockford. Where we see more sunshine, temperatures may be able to rise near or just above 50° for the afternoon highs. Winds will remain out of the Northwest, but only 5-15 mph sustained winds.

This pattern is due to strong Northwesterly flow aloft in the jet stream. This map shows the jet stream winds that drive our weather systems. Strong flow overhead will drive the few subtle weather systems our way, but limited moisture will keep rain chances slim.

A large-scale ridge will move overhead toward the middle of the week, accompanied by a milder air mass spreading across the Central United State. This will also bring more widespread moisture our way. As a result, additional scattered showers will spread over more of the area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also surge, reaching the 50s and 60s by the end of the week. But more widespread rain chances will return as a large-scale trough sweeps through toward the weekend,

Gusty winds linger into the start of the work week

Saturday was a day to be outside. Sunday, not so much as a potent storm system drifted to our north, bringing rain and strong winds to the region. 

All in all, most locales ended up with .25" to .50" of rain and 45 to 50 mph winds. Unfortunately, this low is relatively close to the Stateline, meaning we can expect windy conditions to persist. Thankfully, the winds were see today won't be strong enough to reach wind advisory criteria. Something that has already occurred 5 other times since March 1st.

Winds this morning and for much of the afternoon will be out of the northwest, gusting up to 30 to 35 mph at times. This will leave wind chills in the upper teens and low 20s this morning and close to the 40° mark this afternoon. Temperature-wise, highs will fall a few degrees short of Sunday's highs, landing in the upper 40s. This all happening as skies gradually clear, leaving us with some afternoon sun.

Clouds will be back on the increase overnight as a weak disturbance passes to our west. This will have enough moisture to bring the chance for a few light rain showers, especially along and south of I-88. Rain chances will end before sunrise. From there, expect clouds to break apart, resulting in partial sunshine for the rest of our Tuesday. Temperatures will be rather similar to today in the upper 40s.

 

Rain ends this evening, blustery and chilly night ahead

 The heaviest of the rain showers have been pushing East of I-39 as of 5:30PM, with a few areas of light rain possible behind them roughly through 8PM. Many spots ended up seeing between a quarter and half inch of rainfall from this morning into the early evening. Drier conditions will arrive after 8PM behind this passing cold front, but that comes with strong winds from the West.

Winds may push 40-45 mph through 9/10PM before gradually winding down a bit toward midnight. This also comes with a cooler air mass as temperatures drop near freezing overnight. Monday morning could see a few spots with wind chills in the upper teens!

The strongest of the winds will be possible between 5-10PM, but a wind advisory will remain in effect until 12AM for all of Northern Illinois for that potential of 45 mph wind gusts.

Winds will ease a little bit for Monday, but we will still see gusts in the 30-35 mph range throughout much of the day. The evening will see a rapid improvement in winds as they calm toward 7/8PM. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 40s, with a few spots possibly making a run at 50° if they see more sunshine.

Looking ahead to next week, we will see a few slim chances for precipitation Monday night into Tuesday and again Thursday. Both of these potential systems will have limited moisture to work with, so any precipitation we see will be short-lived and on the lighter side. There is a slim chance for a few snowflakes to try and mix in Tuesday night before we dry out again for Wednesday. After Thursday's light rain chance, we will see more widespread showers return heading toward next weekend as highs reach back into the 60s.