Trick or treat forecast: More clouds, a few showers

Halloween Weekend:

A weak area of low pressure lingering nearby will make for a much cloudier Halloween weekend across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 

While much of the time will be dry, enough moisture wrapping around the storm system could spark a few scattered showers from time to time, mainly during the early-morning hours and then again late in the afternoon into the evening. 

 

Rainfall amounts look like, and widespread washouts are not expected. but it may be enough that someone in your trick-or treat group will want to keep an umbrella on hand to be safe. 

Temperatures remain seasonably mild, but cooler than recent times in the low 60s for Saturday, then upper 60s for Sunday. This system will keep the cloud cover in place for Sunday while also keeping a slim chance for a shower or two.
  
 

Scattered showers return following near record warmth Wednesday

 Temperatures Wednesday afternoon warmed into the low to mid 70s area wide, with Rockford's high just one degree shy of reaching the record. The record high for the 28th of October sits at 77 degrees set back in 1950, which still stands after today.

Skies will remain mostly clear through the early evening but a gradual increase in cloud cover can be expected through late evening as a cold front moves in from the west. Thunderstorms have quickly developed along the front from Iowa through Minnesota, with severe thunderstorms around Minneapolis, MN. Any threat for severe weather will remain well to our northwest through the evening.

Breezy southerly winds will help keep temperatures in the 60s for most of the night, dropping only into the upper 50s around sunrise Thursday. As the cold front moves close to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, we'll see an uptick in cloud cover and eventually a few widely scattered showers move in during the overnight. A few of those showers may develop as early as 8pm across far northwest Illinois, but most likely we'll see the rain move in after Midnight. While there will be an increase in moisture along and ahead of the front during the night, the highest forcing remains to our north resulting in limited instability locally. This will limit our overall thunderstorm chances, but an isolated rumble or two can't entirely be ruled out. Rainfall amounts will also remain light with most areas under a quarter of an inch.

The cold front will move across northern Illinois Thursday morning with skies quickly clearing for the afternoon. There won't be much of a temperature climb during the afternoon with the front coming through, but highs should be able to climb back into the upper 60s. High pressure to the north will settle in across the Great Lakes Thursday night which will allow temperatures to drop back into the upper 30s Friday morning. Clouds will move back in by Friday afternoon with temperatures holding steady in the low 60s.

 

Dry October continues as northern Illinois sees near-record warmth

Dry October:

October has been living up to its reputation as a dry fall month across the region. In fact, Rockford hasn't seen any measurable rainfall in the past 12 days, and the last time we picked up an inch or more was way back on October 1st. While the extended stretch of mild weather has been rather enjoyable, it has also allowed dry conditions to take hold. While dry and unseasonably mild conditions remain in place, rain chances will begin to slowly creep back into the forecast tonight as our next storm system glides into the Great Lakes. 

Near-Record Warmth:

When we say "unseasonably mild", we're talking about temperatures that will approach record territory for late October. With sunshine returning and a warm, organized southerly wind in place, afternoon highs will climb into the low, possibly mid 70s. Similar to Sunday, we'll come up just shy of our record high of 77 degrees, set back in 1950. Still, temperatures will run 10 to 15 degree above average. 

Rain Chances Return:

While we sit under sunny skies and near-record warmth here in the Stateline, severe weather will be making headlines farther northwest. Near the Minneapolis metro area, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon. With warm, humid air surging north ahead of an approaching cold front, a few storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes.

Most of the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will remain north of the Stateline overnight. However, a few scattered showers cannot be ruled out after midnight and into the Thursday morning commute as a cold front approaches and prepares to move through the region. Rainfall amounts look light, with most locales staying under a tenth of an inch. Clouds should clear out as the morning progresses once the cold front is south of I-80. 

Sunshine and 70s return Wednesday, Clouds move back in late week

 

Clouds filled our skies Tuesday afternoon but that didn't stop temperatures from reaching the upper 60s in northern Illinois. When you look at radar you will notice a little green showing up indicating some precipitation moving through the region but given our dry atmosphere not much - if any - of that is actually reaching the ground. This means that we'll just continue to see mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the evening.

These clouds have been the result of a weak low-pressure system (upper-level disturbance, really) moving through the Midwest. It's pulled in a little more moisture which has led to the increase in cloud cover. But late tonight that low will move out which will help clear our skies into the overnight and bring temperatures down into the mid-40s once again. There may even be some patchy fog early Wednesday.

Temperatures Wednesday will warm nicely thanks to afternoon sunshine and a breezy southerly wind. Wind gusts could approach 20-25 mph in spots throughout the day which will help give afternoon temperatures a nice little boost back into the low to mid 70s. The forecast high for Rockford is currently 74 degrees.

Clouds, however, will fill back in with another cold front that'll move into the western Great Lakes late Wednesday night. With a little instability building along the front there may be an isolated rumble of thunder or two during the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures won't fall much Wednesday night, which means it'll be a warm start to the day. But with the cold front coming through during the morning highs likely won't climb much into the afternoon and remain capped right around 69/70 degrees. Still above average, however.

Heading into Friday we will once again see an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon. That combined with an easterly wind will help hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s, which is still above average. Temperatures for both Friday and Saturday (Halloween) continue to trend down some with it looking like we may see a little more cloud cover during the afternoon, unfortunately. There could also be a few showers around during the first half of the day Saturday, but hopefully by Saturday evening things will be drying out.

October's warm streak continues, but changes are ahead

Continued Warmth:

Though the Rockford Airport only reached 65 degrees yesterday, that still puts us above the average high of late October, continuing what has been a dry and unusually warm month. That trend carries over into today as well. Look for a partly sunny sky with afternoon highs ending up back towards the 70-degree mark, topping out in the upper 60s. Winds will play a bigger role in today's warm-up, blowing out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph. 

Near-Record Warmth Returns:

Wednesday's warm-up will be a bit more substantial. With plenty of sunshine and a southwesterly breeze in place, temperatures should climb back into the low 70s. Not only would that mark our 14th 70-degree day since October 1st, but it would also bring us within striking distance of the record high of 77 degrees set back in 1950. It would be the second time in just five days that Rockford has flirted with record warmth. The other time was Sunday. 

Thursday's Cold Front:

The warm spell will briefly lose steam on Thursday as a cold front moves through late in the morning towards the midday hours. Ahead of the front, a passing shower or two can't be ruled out during the first half of the day, though widespread rainfall is not expected. Behind the front, temperatures will ease back a few degrees, ending our recent flirtation with record warmth. Even so, highs will end up in the upper 60s both Thursday and Friday.

Pattern change into early November

 

A pattern change towards the end of October and into the beginning of November could bring an increased chance for precipitation to the Stateline. With the lack of any significant cold air this would most likely come in the form of rain, with even the chance for a few rumbles of thunder.

But in the short-term, our skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the week as afternoon highs warm into the upper 60s. There could even be a few days with highs in the low 70s. We'll see a couple opportunities for rainfall throughout the week but nothing that looks to give us any significant rain into the upcoming weekend. The cold front that came through early Monday morning will lift back north as a warm front Tuesday, wobbling north and south throughout the week.

By early next week (beginning of November) a change in the jet stream pattern will allow for a stronger area of low pressure to develop to the west and northwest, over the Rockies and Plains. This low will move through the Plains and likely somewhere into the Mississippi Valley by Monday or Tuesday of next week, bringing with it rain and a few thunderstorms. Where exactly those storms develop will ultimately be determined on the path of the low, but it does look like our precipitation chances locally could be increasing starting next Monday.

The longer-range outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors a higher probability for above average precipitation across much of the county the first week of November. To go along with that, there also is a higher probability of above average temperatures during that same time period. 

   

October's 70s keep hanging on as Halloween nears

Mild October:

October has certainly been the month of 70s. Of the 20 days that have finished above average so far this month, 13 have ended up with highs in the 70s, giving northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin an extended taste of fall warmth. It's a continuation of the trend we've seen since September, with above-average days outweighing below-average days.

Before October comes to an end, there's still a chance we'll squeeze out one of two more days with highs in the 70s. Today won't make that list, though, as an overnight cold front will knock temperatures down for the start of the work week. Expect a little patchy fog to start the day, but nothing widespread. Any fog that develops will give way to a mostly cloudy sky. That, combined with a cool northeast breeze will limit temperatures to the mid 60s. Even so, 65° remains above late-October standards. 

Continued Warmth:

Following today's brief cooldown, temperatures will rebound and hover near the 70-degree mark through the middle of the week, keeping the stretch of above-average weather right up to Halloween. Our next rain chance arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as another cold front moves through. At this point in time, rain chances look scattered and spotty, meaning many location could end up with little to no rainfall before drier air returns Friday.