Cooler air settles in, Halloween showers fade through the day

Cooler Friday:

The fall-like chill is back across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees cooler than the unseasonable warmth we experienced earlier this week. Temperatures this morning have dipped into the upper 30s, giving the area a more fall-like feel. 

 

As the day goes on, cloud cover will continue to build across the area. That, along with a light northeasterly wind will keep the cooler air locked in place for the end of the work week, limiting afternoon highs to the upper 50s, close to 60°. Along with the cloud cover, a few afternoon sprinkles are possible. 

 

 

Halloween Climate:

Halloween has a habit of delivering just about every type of weather for Rockford. While this year's warm up won't be as substantial as the warmth we saw earlier in the week, temperatures remain far from the coldest Halloween on record. 

The warmest Halloween was a summer-like 84° back in 1950, while the coldest was 32° back in 1917. Halloween as also seen its share of wet weather, with the rainiest occurring in 1919 when 2.51" fell at the airport. And if you recall, it didn't take much in 2019 for Rockford to see its snowiest Halloween on record when 3.1" of snow fell and blanketed the area.   

Halloween Weekend:

Halloween this year will feature a few weather concerns, but it appears the steadiest rain will occur during the morning hours. As we head through the afternoon, rain chances are expected to gradually diminish, although a few lingering sprinkles cannot be ruled out as trick-or-treaters head door-to-door Saturday evening. While widespread rainfall is not anticipated, it may still be a good idea to keep the umbrella nearby just in case.
 

October so far: Above average for the month

 

Following near record warmth Wednesday afternoon Thursday hasn't been quite as warm, but temperatures have remained above average - despite a cold front coming through earlier in the morning.

The day started off with cloud cover and a few light showers but those were quick to move out with sun-filled skies for the rest of the afternoon. This helped to warm temperatures into the mid and upper 60s area wide, with Rockford's high reaching 68 degrees. And here's a little fun fact for you - the low temperature Thursday morning was the same as what the average high temperature should be for the 29th of October! That is 56 degrees. Now, Friday may see some 50s thanks to the quick return of cloud cover in the morning and a brisk northeast breeze. But we look to warm right back up into the weekend and next week.

Looking back over the month of October our average temperature to date is 58.3 degrees. That is almost six degrees above the monthly average (to date) and places this October, so far, as the 7th warmest month-to-date on record. Just within the last week and a half temperatures have been well above average, some nearly 15-20 degrees!

October usually doesn't average a lot of precipitation with 2.63 inches being recorded for the month. So far this month we've added up 1.92 inches which places us at a 0.55-inch deficit. We'll make up for some of that late Friday into Saturday with the next chance for rainfall, but likely not enough to keep us out of at least a little bit of a precipitation deficit to end the month.

Trick or treat forecast: More clouds, a few showers

Halloween Weekend:

A weak area of low pressure lingering nearby will make for a much cloudier Halloween weekend across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 

While much of the time will be dry, enough moisture wrapping around the storm system could spark a few scattered showers from time to time, mainly during the early-morning hours and then again late in the afternoon into the evening. 

 

Rainfall amounts look like, and widespread washouts are not expected. but it may be enough that someone in your trick-or treat group will want to keep an umbrella on hand to be safe. 

Temperatures remain seasonably mild, but cooler than recent times in the low 60s for Saturday, then upper 60s for Sunday. This system will keep the cloud cover in place for Sunday while also keeping a slim chance for a shower or two.
  
 

Scattered showers return following near record warmth Wednesday

 Temperatures Wednesday afternoon warmed into the low to mid 70s area wide, with Rockford's high just one degree shy of reaching the record. The record high for the 28th of October sits at 77 degrees set back in 1950, which still stands after today.

Skies will remain mostly clear through the early evening but a gradual increase in cloud cover can be expected through late evening as a cold front moves in from the west. Thunderstorms have quickly developed along the front from Iowa through Minnesota, with severe thunderstorms around Minneapolis, MN. Any threat for severe weather will remain well to our northwest through the evening.

Breezy southerly winds will help keep temperatures in the 60s for most of the night, dropping only into the upper 50s around sunrise Thursday. As the cold front moves close to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, we'll see an uptick in cloud cover and eventually a few widely scattered showers move in during the overnight. A few of those showers may develop as early as 8pm across far northwest Illinois, but most likely we'll see the rain move in after Midnight. While there will be an increase in moisture along and ahead of the front during the night, the highest forcing remains to our north resulting in limited instability locally. This will limit our overall thunderstorm chances, but an isolated rumble or two can't entirely be ruled out. Rainfall amounts will also remain light with most areas under a quarter of an inch.

The cold front will move across northern Illinois Thursday morning with skies quickly clearing for the afternoon. There won't be much of a temperature climb during the afternoon with the front coming through, but highs should be able to climb back into the upper 60s. High pressure to the north will settle in across the Great Lakes Thursday night which will allow temperatures to drop back into the upper 30s Friday morning. Clouds will move back in by Friday afternoon with temperatures holding steady in the low 60s.

 

Dry October continues as northern Illinois sees near-record warmth

Dry October:

October has been living up to its reputation as a dry fall month across the region. In fact, Rockford hasn't seen any measurable rainfall in the past 12 days, and the last time we picked up an inch or more was way back on October 1st. While the extended stretch of mild weather has been rather enjoyable, it has also allowed dry conditions to take hold. While dry and unseasonably mild conditions remain in place, rain chances will begin to slowly creep back into the forecast tonight as our next storm system glides into the Great Lakes. 

Near-Record Warmth:

When we say "unseasonably mild", we're talking about temperatures that will approach record territory for late October. With sunshine returning and a warm, organized southerly wind in place, afternoon highs will climb into the low, possibly mid 70s. Similar to Sunday, we'll come up just shy of our record high of 77 degrees, set back in 1950. Still, temperatures will run 10 to 15 degree above average. 

Rain Chances Return:

While we sit under sunny skies and near-record warmth here in the Stateline, severe weather will be making headlines farther northwest. Near the Minneapolis metro area, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon. With warm, humid air surging north ahead of an approaching cold front, a few storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes.

Most of the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will remain north of the Stateline overnight. However, a few scattered showers cannot be ruled out after midnight and into the Thursday morning commute as a cold front approaches and prepares to move through the region. Rainfall amounts look light, with most locales staying under a tenth of an inch. Clouds should clear out as the morning progresses once the cold front is south of I-80. 

Sunshine and 70s return Wednesday, Clouds move back in late week

 

Clouds filled our skies Tuesday afternoon but that didn't stop temperatures from reaching the upper 60s in northern Illinois. When you look at radar you will notice a little green showing up indicating some precipitation moving through the region but given our dry atmosphere not much - if any - of that is actually reaching the ground. This means that we'll just continue to see mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the evening.

These clouds have been the result of a weak low-pressure system (upper-level disturbance, really) moving through the Midwest. It's pulled in a little more moisture which has led to the increase in cloud cover. But late tonight that low will move out which will help clear our skies into the overnight and bring temperatures down into the mid-40s once again. There may even be some patchy fog early Wednesday.

Temperatures Wednesday will warm nicely thanks to afternoon sunshine and a breezy southerly wind. Wind gusts could approach 20-25 mph in spots throughout the day which will help give afternoon temperatures a nice little boost back into the low to mid 70s. The forecast high for Rockford is currently 74 degrees.

Clouds, however, will fill back in with another cold front that'll move into the western Great Lakes late Wednesday night. With a little instability building along the front there may be an isolated rumble of thunder or two during the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures won't fall much Wednesday night, which means it'll be a warm start to the day. But with the cold front coming through during the morning highs likely won't climb much into the afternoon and remain capped right around 69/70 degrees. Still above average, however.

Heading into Friday we will once again see an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon. That combined with an easterly wind will help hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s, which is still above average. Temperatures for both Friday and Saturday (Halloween) continue to trend down some with it looking like we may see a little more cloud cover during the afternoon, unfortunately. There could also be a few showers around during the first half of the day Saturday, but hopefully by Saturday evening things will be drying out.

October's warm streak continues, but changes are ahead

Continued Warmth:

Though the Rockford Airport only reached 65 degrees yesterday, that still puts us above the average high of late October, continuing what has been a dry and unusually warm month. That trend carries over into today as well. Look for a partly sunny sky with afternoon highs ending up back towards the 70-degree mark, topping out in the upper 60s. Winds will play a bigger role in today's warm-up, blowing out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph. 

Near-Record Warmth Returns:

Wednesday's warm-up will be a bit more substantial. With plenty of sunshine and a southwesterly breeze in place, temperatures should climb back into the low 70s. Not only would that mark our 14th 70-degree day since October 1st, but it would also bring us within striking distance of the record high of 77 degrees set back in 1950. It would be the second time in just five days that Rockford has flirted with record warmth. The other time was Sunday. 

Thursday's Cold Front:

The warm spell will briefly lose steam on Thursday as a cold front moves through late in the morning towards the midday hours. Ahead of the front, a passing shower or two can't be ruled out during the first half of the day, though widespread rainfall is not expected. Behind the front, temperatures will ease back a few degrees, ending our recent flirtation with record warmth. Even so, highs will end up in the upper 60s both Thursday and Friday.