Slick Spots Friday Morning

The snow may be done but there could still be some slick spots early Friday morning. Wet surfaces from the melting snow are now refreezing as temperatures have fallen well below 32 degrees.

Bridges, overpasses, parking lot and sidewalks could have black ice before the sun comes up Friday. Even some of the less traveled roads may be a little slick. Once the sun comes up and temperatures warm above freezing, the threat for slick spots will decrease.

Thursday Snow Totals

The snow that came down Thursday was one for the record books, breaking the daily maximum snowfall record previously set in 2017. As much as five and a half inches fell across the Stateline from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

The snow has ended with skies expected to clear from west to east during the overnight. The sunshine Friday will be brief as skies fill back with cloud cover mid-morning. A passing cold front Friday evening will bring with it a chance for showers and even a few snow showers late Friday afternoon and evening.

Late October Snow Impacts Much of the Stateline

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, lasting through Thursday afternoon. A few snow flurries and drizzle/light rain fell for much of Wednesday afternoon, but the transition over to snow has begun and will continue into the overnight.

Moderate, to even heavy snow at times, will continue through Thursday morning, but could also mix in with a little sleet through the morning. Dry air working in around the low Thursday could allow some drizzle, or even freezing drizzle, to mix in with some of the snow through the morning commute.

A widespread three to six inches of snow will be likely by the time the snow wraps up Thursday afternoon, but most will end up with between three to five inches. The majority of the accumulating snow will take place on the grass, back decks, patios, cars, etc with a little slush expected on the roads by Thursday morning. Roads will be wet and in some spots slick, so be sure to give yourself extra time during the morning.

The Illinois Department of Transportation is reporting that some of the roads in Ogle, Whiteside and Jo Daviess as partly snow/ice covered, as well as a section of I-39 and Highway 20 over northwest Illinois. The snow will be ending from west to east during the mid-afternoon with skies turning partly cloudy by Thursday night. Strong North winds will bring wind chills down into the teens during the afternoon and evening. The snow will have a little more weight to it and significantly accumulate on the trees and power lines. With winds gusting in around 30 mph during the afternoon, sporadic power outages *could* be possible during the day.

By Thursday night temperatures will tumble quite a bit falling into the low to mid 20s. This means a hard freeze will almost be certain by Friday morning.

Historic Halloween is on Tap for the Stateline

Who would have thought we would be talking about having a white Halloween. Just to recap. we had the first round of snow come through Monday night - Tuesday morning giving us the first snowflakes of the season. Round two is currently underway. Some areas of northern Illinois, mostly south and southeast of Rockford, woke up to a sloppy commute this morning. A mix of heavy, wet snow and a cold rain has fallen primarily south of I-88.

The third and final round of snow for this week moves in later today and could dump quite a bit on the Stateline. As a low pressure system develops over the Great Plains, moisture will continue to stream northward into the Stateline. Going into the afternoon, as temperatures climb into the upper 30s to near 40, a light wintry mix is expected as snow gradually mixes in with some rain. This will then transition to mostly rain event for the rest of the afternoon, and it's going to be a chilly rain because of how well below average temperatures will be today. You still cannot rule out a few snowflakes making it to the ground this afternoon, but any travel plans should’t be impeded aside from the wet roads. Just be sure to take your time on the roads.

Rain will transition to all snow shortly after sunset. Temperatures overnight will slowly sink down into the low 30s by the time we wake up and start preparing for our day tomorrow morning. Precipitation begins to pick up in intensity and could make for slick driving by the early morning hours of Thursday. Snow during the overnight hours could be quite heavy at times, leading to reduced visibility and tricky driving conditions.

By Thursday morning, if you have to go into work or school, you’ll want to give yourself plenty of time. Bands of heavier snow are likely and slick roads become a concern. Snow will begin to accumulate on grassy surfaces first, might take a few hours to start accumulating on the roads. In the title, it say a "historic" Halloween is on tap for us. That is because the “snowiest” Halloween on record for the Rockford area was actually not too long again. Back in 2014, the airport recorded an astonishing .... are you ready for this?, an astonishing 0.1″ of snow.  That record is more than likely going to be smashed when this is all said and done as 3″ to 5″ of snow is likely. Some localized spots could see even more or less.

Not only will tomorrow become the snowiest Halloween on record, but could potentially be one of the coldest Halloweens on record. Highs are forecast to only top out in the low 30s, with our high topping out around 34°. The coldest Halloween on record occurred back in 1917 where a high of 32° was observed. A lot is still in question as this system continues to evolve, so be sure to continues to stay with us on-air and online for the latest updates.

Near Record Cold and Snow for Halloween

Temperatures will fall nearly 20 degrees below average for the end of the month and beginning of November. This means highs for Halloween will struggle to make it even to 40 degrees. Not only will our trick-or-treaters be cold, but it'll most likely be snowing.

Right now I'm forecasting a high of only 36 degrees for Thursday afternoon. If that forecast verifies, it would tie the record for the second coldest Halloween in Rockford. The coldest Halloween was set back in 1917 when the temperature reached a chilly 32 degrees. 

It's becoming increasingly likely that accumulating snow will occur late Wednesday evening/night and into Thursday afternoon. It's still a bit too early to pinpoint exactly how much, but it could be more than the couple inches some had Tuesday morning. Our record snowfall for October 31st is only 0.1 inches set back in 2014. It's almost a certain that record will fall this Thursday.

Any snow that does fall would most likely be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, but leading up to Thursday we will have had a couple colder days and nights. This could mean a slightly better chance for snow sticking to roads during the day Thursday. It's also possible that travel could be impacted during the morning and afternoon. There are still some uncertainties leading up to Thursday, so it's possible that some change in the forecast could occur. Stay tuned!

Snowy Tuesday Morning

Winter came early Tuesday morning with many waking up to what looked like a winter wonderland. Snowfall totals ranged anywhere from a trace/dusting, up to nearly three inches across parts of northwest Illinois and Wisconsin. At the Eyewitness News studio we received 0.9 inches, with 0.5 inches falling at the Chicago Rockford International Airport.

Skies were quick to clear Tuesday afternoon, quickly melting away the snow from the

morning. Temperatures, however, remained on the cooler side with highs only reaching the upper 30s, to near 40 degrees. Skies will fill back with cloud cover Tuesday evening and overnight as the next storm system moves in from the southwest.

This one will impact more of central and west-central Illinois where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The majority of the

Stateline will stay dry through early Wednesday but a light, chilly rain is expected to fall by the afternoon. At times, this rain could mix with a little sleet or even a few light snow showers.

Winter Weather Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Green County in south-central Wisconsin beginning late Monday night, lasting through Tuesday morning. Cloud cover will remain in place through the evening Monday as low pressure moves along a cold front to the southwest. As the low moves closer, moisture will increase along the front producing light rain showers by about 9pm/10pm Monday evening.

Colder air in place over Wisconsin and northwest

Illinois will lead to light snow developing between 11pm and Midnight. As the colder air moves east overnight, a transition over to snow - or at least a rain/snow mix - will occur for most across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Minor accumulations are possible, with the highest totals taking place in Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois. There, one to two inches could come down but mostly on grassy surfaces. Further east, including Rockford, around an inch of snow will fall.

Any wintry weather will be quick to wrap up before sunrise Tuesday, so I don't anticipate too much of an impact on roads and the morning commute. However, where the snow comes down a little faster slushy accumulations will be possible.

First Flakes of the Season to Fall Tonight

If only we could take yesterday's sunny and comfortable weather, bottle it up, and experience it again for the start of the Halloween week. Well, mother nature has other plans for us. So much so, that we will be bringing in a familiar s-word back into the forecast. Cloud cover due to a cold frontal passage has stuck around with us for most of our day so far. Temperatures today because of said cold front will tumble, going from low 60s yesterday, down to not making it past 50° today.

In fact, cloud cover will stick around for the rest of our Monday. Despite the cloud cover, things remain dry through the day. With that said, don’t be surprised if you run into some patchy drizzle while driving today. Breaking down the main event, a low pressure system develops ahead of a digging trough over the southern Great Plain and brings some light rain into the Stateline by late this evening. The track of this system takes it to the east of the Stateline, which in theory would put us on the colder side of the circulation.

Temperatures will still be too warm for snow to crystallize and form early tonight. So for those who can't wait to see the first flakes of the season, you will have to wait a little bit longer. This event will be starting out as rain. The rain will help drag down temperatures further into the 30s, so once showers develop, snow will likely be not too far behind. Models are in good agreement that after midnight give or take, the rain/snow line will be on the moving eastward. If and once that line clears the Rockford area, a transition to all snow is forecast before things taper off just after sunrise. Slushy conditions are expected for the tomorrow's morning commute, please make sure to give yourself extra time.

Accumulations look to be fairly light across the Stateline, with most areas receiving less than one-inch. However, the highest chance for anyone to see an "all snow" event and accumulating snow is to the west and northwest. Places west of Freeport and Savanna could see as much as 1″ to 2″ of slushy snow, primarily on grassy surfaces. East of that line, as much as 1″ could fall. Now, one main factor stands as to why the snow will not accumulate on the roadways. Overall, roadways are going to be still too warm from yesterday's fall-like weather. Also, today's temperatures for the most part will stay in the 40s. Once conditions taper off and the system moves out of the region, cloud cover sticks around into the mid-late morning hours. Then an area of high pressure moves in and helps dry conditions out, bringing some sunshine for the afternoon.

Light Snow Possible Late Monday Night

A mixture of rain and snow will be likely for most across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Monday night, but a transition over to all snow will be possible for some across the Midwest.

A cold front passing through the Stateline Sunday night will become the driver for an area of low pressure to move along Monday evening and Monday night. Light rain showers will fall Monday afternoon, becoming a little more steady

during the evening. To the north and west, enough cold air will move into the Midwest with a transition over to snow taking place. That transition line could get into northwest Illinois, stretching from a line from near Janesville, down to Freeport to Savanna. Slushy accumulations are possible, but should remain mostly confined to grassy surfaces where up to an inch could come down.
Moisture will be quick to move out early Tuesday, so most of the precipitation should be done by sunrise Tuesday.

Cooler and Wintry Pattern Sets in for the End of October, Beginning of November

We all knew the four letter 'S' word was coming sooner or later at some point this Fall season. As we close out the last few days of October and welcome in the month of November, quite the chill will grip most of the country. And that chill could very well lead to our first snowflakes of the season falling very soon.

Following heavy rainfall Saturday afternoon and evening, the sunny skies Sunday and temperatures near 60 degrees were quite the

treat! A cold front, however, looms just to the west and will usher in cooler air not only for tonight, but also for the remainder of the week. Skies will remain mostly clear through the early overnight, but as a cold front passes late Sunday night skies will turn mostly cloudy heading into Monday morning. Temperatures, as a result, will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than they were on Sunday.

The cold front will settle downstate and become the focus for an unsettled weather pattern for most of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this week. The first round of precipitation will arrive during the afternoon and evening Monday, falling as mostly rain as temperatures remain above freezing. As forcing increases in the atmosphere Monday

evening/night, a mix or even transition over to snow will be possible from Wisconsin, stretching down through northwest Illinois. Slushy accumulations are possible through Tuesday morning, but shouldn't have too much of an impact on roads during the morning. Skies will quickly dry out Tuesday before another, and possibly stronger, system moves through Wednesday - Friday morning. This system may have a little more moisture with it as it lifts north from the Gulf. Initially temperatures should be warm enough to support mostly rain during the day, but late evening and overnight is when the chance for a mix will be likely. This will occur late Tuesday night and then again Wednesday night. 

Low pressure strengthens during the day Thursday as it passes to our southeast Thursday night. A band of heavy precipitation may develop right over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin heading into Friday morning. If temperatures are cold enough, we could see the precipitation changeover to accumulating snow during that time. It's still way too early to get into specifics, but this storm system definitely has caught our attention - and it should yours too. We just first have to get through out first round of wintry weather before worrying about later this week.

High Pressure Brings Sunshine Before Weekend Rain Chancess

You might have needed to give your car a few minutes to warm up this morning. Or you might have needed the ice scrapper for your windshield. Not only because it was a chilly start, but also a frosty one. Widespread frost has developed early this morning, as temperatures for the most part dropped into the low and mid 30s. A spot or two actually dropped down into the upper 20s. This allowed for frost to become widespread this morning. High pressure remains in control of our weather today. As this area of high pressure settles in, clouds will clear out bringing mostly sunny skies for the rest of our Friday. Temperatures climb into the 50’s later today. A cool, but pleasant day across the Stateline.

As this high pressure slides east, winds will remain very light, but begin to turn more southwesterly overnight. This will allow for another chance for frost to develop by tomorrow morning as low overnight fall into the low 30s. If you need to do any yard work over the weekend, the best time to do it would be early in the day tomorrow. Our Saturday may begin with some sunshine, but as the morning progresses, clouds quickly move in.

Model Guidance continues to track this system to the east of the Stateline. And because this system originated in the Gulf of Mexico. it will have plenty of tropical moisture to go along with it. Rain chances increase late in the afternoon, with higher rain chances late evening into the early overnight hours. Spotty showers are likely to move in around 4 or 5 in the afternoon, with more widespread rain likely by Saturday night. As far as rainfall totals are concerned, most of the Stateline should receive less than one-half of an inch. So the heaviest of the these rain showers will remain to our south and our east.

A few showers many carry on into our Sunday morning before this system fully moves out of the region. The warm temperatures will stick around as highs end up in the mid to upper 50s, with skies clearing out to partly sunny skies. The cold air that we have been talking about this entire arrives just in time for the new work week. By Monday, highs fall back into the 40s. As much as it pains me to say this, we could be looking at our first wintry blast of precipitation going into the overnight hours of Monday and early Tuesday. Models are still trying to come into agreement about the timing of the cold air, but a mix of rain and snow showers does look possible.

Rain Chance Increasing for the Weekend

A few changes have been made to the weekend forecast. Temperatures still look on track, but the chance for rain Saturday has increased. Low pressure developing over the southern Plains Thursday, currently bringing snow to the Texas Panhandle, will lift northeast during the afternoon Friday. Cloud cover has increased locally Thursday evening, but should clear out Friday with high pressure overhead.

Earlier in the week it looked like the low over the southwest would remain well to our south, only increasing clouds for the weekend. But the low has taken a track a little further to the north, bringing the northern edge of the rain into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin during the evening and overnight Saturday. As of Thursday evening, it looks like the heaviest rainfall will stay just to our south where totals could reach over one inch. A shift to the north, however, would increase the chance for higher rainfall totals Saturday night.

The low will be quick to move out Sunday leaving us with a mostly dry afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will warm back into the upper 50s, to even near 60 degrees. 

Rain Moves In Wednesday Evening

There were a few light showers that came down earlier Wednesday morning, but skies were quick to turn partly cloudy during the afternoon warming temperatures into the middle and upper 50s. The clear skies didn't last, however, as clouds were quick to move back in as low pressure approaches from the west.

The rain for most will be light, but some pockets of heavier rainfall will be likely across northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Showers will continue for the remainder of the evening and early overnight, with skies remaining mostly cloudy through Thursday morning.

Pattern Change Leads to a Much Cooler End to October

The month of October has, so far, been a relatively average month. It was off to a very rainy start, but things have dried out since the first week and a half. Temperatures are expected to warm briefly heading into Wednesday but then tumble again Thursday and Friday. We'll likely see another warm up Saturday, and possibly Sunday, before the pattern really changes the last couple of days of October and for the beginning of November.

A strong ridge of high pressure will develop over Alaska late this week and weekend. It is forecast to dislodge quite a bit of cold front from the north, sending it down across the lower 48 next week. The problem, however, is trying to figure out when exactly that cold air is expected to arrive. This type of pattern change - strong ridging over Alaska - is a result of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation, which is a variation in the flow pattern across the Eastern Pacific, as well as Alaska. 

It has both a negative and positive phase, where the positive phase keeps the more mild, Pacific air flowing into the middle of the country and the cold air locked to the north. The negative phase, the phase we look to be heading towards next week, develops a strong ridge of high pressure over Alaska, pushing the colder air to the south.

Whether or not this pattern change will bring our first chance of seeing any snow is yet to be seen, but as we get closer to November we tend to have a higher chance for seeing at least some snow as the temperatures drop. 

Our average first trace of snow usually occurs around November 2nd, with the first tenth of an inch of snow occurring around November 20th and the first inch of snow typically within the first week of December. Of course we know it can happen at any time - and not even in the winter season. Just be prepared for the colder air, and likely colder Halloween, and we'll keep on the lookout for the chance for any snow.

Quick Moving System Brings Light Rain Wednesday Afternoon

A few wind-driven showers were felt through the morning and afternoon Tuesday, but cloud cover will gradually clear Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The clear sky doesn't last too long, however, as a quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast from the High Plains Wednesday morning. This will fill our skies back with cloud cover during the morning, along with bringing a few light rain showers to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Low pressure will move across northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon, placing the heaviest rainfall across southern Wisconsin. Strong high pressure located over the Gulf states will limit how much moisture makes it this far north, keeping rainfall totals on the lighter side. Those light rain showers will last through Wednesday evening with skies becoming partly cloudy Wednesday night into Thursday.

Wind Advisory Continues, Gusty Winds Stick Around Into Tonight

This textbook example of a mid-latitude cyclone or potent low pressure system continues to throw the 1 - 2 punch as we head into our Tuesday afternoon. Winds have been howling and wind driven showers have been passing through the region all morning.

Winds began to increase right after the morning commute yesterday and haven't settled down since. Winds have been so powerful, I saw groups of birds trying their best to fly straight,but ended up flying sideways. A wind advisory remains in effect for the entire Stateline area until 3 PM. This means that we would experience wind gusts up to 40-50 mph through mid afternoon.

Driving could be difficult for some, especially those who are behind the wheel of a high profile vehicle. Since winds will be out of the west, crosswinds will be most dangerous on north-to-south oriented roads. If you are staying at home today, tree limbs and branches may also come down, leading to the potential for downed power lines. If you have any items on the patio, make sure they’re brought in or secured.

The other side to this 1-2 combo are the wind driven showers that have been sliding through the region this morning. Moisture rotating around the low pressure to our north is making for a few wind-driven rainy spots. Model guidance continued to show shower chances sticking around into the early afternoon hours before conditions dry out into this evening. Nothing too substantial is expected with these showers.

Tonight will kick off with mostly cloudy skies, then skies will gradually clear the further we head into Wednesday morning. We hold onto a bit of a breeze overnight as these pesky westerly winds could gust between 15 and 20 MPH. As clouds clear, temperatures fall into the mid 30s. Wednesday features a good deal of sunshine early on, but clouds are expected to move back in as a weak system approaches. This system also brings our next rain chance.The majority of rain stays just to our north, but a few showers cannot be entirely ruled out late tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

Wind Advisory Issued through Tuesday Afternoon

A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin lasting through 3pm Tuesday afternoon. Peak wind gusts Monday reached 45 mph in some locations, and while winds have come down just a little, gusts are expected to pick back up as colder air arrives from the west.

Wind gusts across the Upper Midwest are gusting close to 45 mph, with a few gusts closing in around 50 mph. While I don't expect winds quite as high as 50 mph Tuesday morning, wind gusts to 45 mph will be possible. Travel on north/south roads will also be difficult through much of the morning and afternoon.

Wind Driven Rain Showers Continue Tuesday

The wind has been quite strong Monday afternoon and evening, at times gusting 40-45 mph. Rain came down early Monday as a cold front swept across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, but skies were quick to dry with sunshine making an appearance through much of the afternoon. This helped to warm temperatures into the mid and upper 60s.

Cloud cover, however, has moved back in and temperatures continue to tumble with most locations now in the low to mid 50s. Cloud cover and strong winds will hold temperatures overnight in the low to mid 40s, but wind chills by Tuesday morning will start off in the mid 30s.

Southwest winds will continue overnight, at times gusting 40-45mph through sunrise Tuesday. Weak disturbances rotating around a very large area of low pressure in the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday will keep scattered showers around through the afternoon. A drier air mass will move in Tuesday evening and this will briefly bring an end to some of the shower activity heading into Wednesday morning.

Here are a few of the peak wind gusts from Monday afternoon: Rockford - 45 mph, Rochelle - 39 mph, Dixon - 38 mph and DeKalb - 38 mph.

Blustery Winds and Heavy Rain Welcome in the New Work Week

If only we could have a repeat of yesterday's weather to kick off the new work week. Unfortunately, a potent but textbook mid-latitude cyclone over the central U.S has brought gusty winds and pockets of rain to welcome the new week. It isn’t the easiest way to start a Monday, but rain chances taper off through the afternoon.

Heavy rain made for a pretty sloppy morning drive, but the good news about this rainy start is that it will come to an end quicker than you think. The first round of showers weakened a little bit before entering the Stateline, but still brought light to moderate downpours towards the end of the morning commute. The second round is set to roll through during the late morning hours ahead of a lifting cold front. Once the second round moves out of the region shortly after mid-day, the winds become the story.

Switching gears and going back to the potent system that is responsible for this morning’s rain. This system will also be the source for the gusty winds that we will encounter today and tomorrow. We are talking about a textbook mid-latitude cyclone sitting across the Midwest. Typically when a low pressure system undergoes cyclogenesis, it strengthens and deepens while taking the shape of a comma cloud.

Around the center of circulation are lines of equal pressure called isobars, and these isobars when stacked very close to one another result in gusty winds.  Locally, winds could occasionally gust as high as 35 to 45 mph throughout the day, especially this afternoon. This could lead to the potential for difficult driving during the evening commute. Make sure you’ve got a firm grip on the steering wheel this afternoon and evening.

The associated cold front will be passing through during the early afternoon hours, putting a wrap to the heaviest of the rain. A cold and dry air mass filters in behind it which could actually lead to a few peeks of sunshine to end the first day of the new work week. The small chance for light rain continues tonight and then also through the first half of Tuesday before our low pressure exits the region. Winds remain gusty on Tuesday, with another day of 40 mph gusts possible.

The second half of the week features drier conditions, with highs much cooler than average. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 50’s to upper 40’s later this week. In fact, highs seem to stay below average towards the end of October and into the beginning of December. Might need to bundle the kids up a bit as you take them out trick or treating on Halloween!