Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
901 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA LATE FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...AND TRANSITION TO A HEAVY
AND WET SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH
PER HOUR FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-OGLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON
901 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

* HAZARDS...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF
UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED
AND DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN IF THESE SNOWFALL RATES MATERIALIZE.
TRAVEL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AND
PERHAPS DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Snow potential for Friday increases!

A Winter Storm Watch has just been issued for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin beginning Friday afternoon.

Low pressure tracking out of the Plains today will rapidly intensify as it moves northeast out of Missouri and just to the south of Chicago by Friday afternoon.  This type of track is a classic one for heavy snow potential across southern Wisconsin where accumulations could top six inches.  Warmer temperatures initially will allow for rain or a mix of rain/snow to fall across southeast Wisconsin and points south early Friday.  But, because the low will intensify rapidly as it moves into the lower Great Lakes it will have enough strength to pull down colder air across Wisconsin and possibly into northwest Illinois by late afternoon Friday.  The track of this low has shifted a little further south with the recent morning model runs than the evening runs.  The potential is there for this accumulating snow to dip even further south across northern Illinois.  We'll continue to analyze the data as we receive it today and have another update for you later this afternoon.

Severe threat returns Friday

After tornadoes ripped through parts of Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky Wednesday it appears as if those same areas could be hard hit again Friday.

A developing low pressure system will move out of Missouri and into East-Central Illinois by Friday afternoon.  As it does a warm, moist air mass will lift northward ahead of a cold front the same time strong winds in the jet stream move through the lower Ohio River Valley.  Hail, strong winds and tornadoes all remain possible during the day Friday.  A moderate risk for severe weather has been issued from the Storm Prediction Center for the darker shaded region.   For us, rain showers will start the day Friday before switching over to snow Friday evening.  It's possible that a few thunderstorms will be found to the south and southeast.

Tornado near Mounds, Illinois

Here are the damage survey results from the tornado that touched-down near Mounds, IL early this morning. This survey was conducted by the NWS office in Paducah, KY:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
748 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR PULASKI-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-MASSAC...

THE FOLLOWING IS THE PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR
PULASKI-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-MASSAC TORNADO.

* EVENT TYPE.........EF2 TORNADO

* EVENT DATE.........WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 29TH 2012

* EVENT TIME.........5:00 AM CST (TIME APPROXIMATE)

* EVENT LOCATION.....THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTHWEST OF
MOUNDS (PULASKI COUNTY ILLINOIS)...AND MOVED EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOUNDS AND CROSSED OVER INTERSTATE 57 NEAR EXIT 8. THE
TORNADO CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER NEAR THE TOWN OF AMERICA. THE
TORNADO THEN MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN BALLARD AND MCCRACKEN
COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...IMPACTING TOWNS SUCH AS OSCAR...BANDANA
AND RAGLAND. THE TORNADO CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER AGAIN AND
LIFTED ABOUT 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF METROPOLIS JUST EAST OF THE
METROPOLIS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

* PEAK WIND..........120 MPH
* AVG. PATH WIDTH....125 YARDS
* PATH LENGTH........26.5 MILES
* INJURIES...........4 INJURIES (1 MAJOR, 3 MINOR)
* FATALITIES.........NONE

* DAMAGE DETAIL......MANY HUNDREDS OF TREES EITHER UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. FOUR MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED. NUMEROUS BARNS AND SHEDS
EITHER DESTROYED OR DAMAGED IN SOME WAY WITH DEBRIS CARRIED
SEVERAL HUNDREDS YARDS AND LOFTED IN TREES. NUMEROUS HOMES WITH
MINOR TO MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE. MANY HOMES HAD SIDING/GUTTER
DAMAGE. SEVERAL POWER POLES SNAPPED. TWO SEMI TRAILERS FLIPPED
ON THEIR SIDE. A FEW UNMANNED STATIONARY VEHICLES WERE MOVED
50-75 YDS FROM THEIR ORIGINAL POSITION. SEVERAL CAR PORTS
COLLAPSED. SEVERAL CHICKEN HOUSES EITHER DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SURVEYORS........CHRISTINE WIELGOS/DEBBIE HOOPER

Wednesday afternoon update

Temperatures across the area are in the upper 40s/low 50s with a pretty brisk southwest wind.  Not too off to the west snow has been falling in Iowa and has caused some problems with visibility.  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northeast Iowa and for Jo Daviess county in far northwest Illinois.  While the snow has been light the strong winds have caused poor visibility, especially along Highway 20.  These snow showers will begin to move east through the afternoon and could create a few visibility concerns for your evening commute.  Winds will remain gusty through the overnight.

It's just a tad windy out....

A Wind Advisory has been issued for all counties in northern Illinois except Winnebago, Boone and McHenry as well as Rock, Green and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin.

Sustained winds have already reached 25 mph with gusts nearing 40 mph, especially to our west.  Temperatures in Rockford have reached the low 50s but in Galena the temperatures is already beginning to fall.  Look for these winds to continue through the remainder of the day and temperatures to fall back by this afternoon.

Wednesday Morning Weather Update

7:30 am Update:  The fog is beginning to lift this morning and temperatures are rising through the upper 40s and low 50s. 

Further south the quick moving line of thunderstorms has now entered into western Kentucky where several tornado warnings remain.  Unfortunately, there are reports beginning to come in of injuries, one of them involving a small child.  A moderate risk of severe weather has now been issued for Kentucky, Tennessee, far northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

Overnight rain and embedded thunderstorms have moved east this morning with rainfall totals ranging anywhere between 0.20" and 0.50". 
Dry air is beginning to wrap around the strong low pressure system in northwest Iowa and this has helped to cut-off the rain here but has allowed a line of strong thunderstorms to develop further south.  Initially, this line began in Missouri and has now moved east through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee were several tornado warnings have been issued.

Closer to home, we'll see some sunshine early this morning as warm air is drawn into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Temperatures will rise into the low 50s this morning before clouds wrap back in around the low.  Winds will increase from the southwest with gusts as high as 40 mph.  As the clouds move back in there will be a chance for a few light sprinkles/snow showers going into the evening.  Temperatures will also fall into the upper 30s/low 40s by this afternoon.