Friday, November 24, 2017

Near Record Warmth

It will be a warm and windy Friday for all of those Black Friday shoppers! It's already breezy this morning, and it will be a windy afternoon. We will have sustained southerly winds at 10-20 mph and those winds will gust as high as 30 mph as early as the late morning. Wind gusts will die down a bit by dinner time, but those winds along with a lot of sunshine will make for a warm afternoon!

 High temperatures today are forecast to climb into the low 60's! That's almost 20° above average and a few degrees shy of our record high. The record for today is 65° set back in 1931, our forecast high today is 61°.

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Very Little Precipitation Expected over the Next 7 Days

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.  The afternoon was very comfortable and filled with lots of sunshine.  Highs Thursday reached 47 degrees in Rockford, just a handful of degrees above average!

The overall weather pattern heading into the weekend and early next week is expected to remain fairly quiet.  A strong low pressure system developing Thursday evening near the Canadian/US border will quickly race east, through the Plains and Upper Midwest by Friday evening.  Ahead of the low a very warm air mass will be drawn northward for Friday, pushing temperatures up near 60 degrees!  Winds will also remain gusty from the southwest with peak wind gusts to 35 mph.

Winds within the jet stream will be moving mostly from west to east through early next week.  This will help block any Arctic air from making much progress southward.  We will get cold fronts to pass through, but the air following those fronts will not be from the Arctic.  Temperatures will drop, but considering the time of year those numbers following the cold fronts could be a lot colder.

With the jet stream pattern more from west to east, any moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be blocked as well.  This means incoming storm systems will have limited moisture associated with them.  There is a cold front that will pass through Wisconsin and Illinois Friday evening, and this will most likely bring a few rain showers with it during that time.  But any heavy or prolonged period of rain is not expected for the next several days.

The image on the left is the 5 day rainfall total for the entire country.  Notice how the majority of rain is forecast to fall over the Northwest, southern Canada and over the far Southeast.  By the middle of next week there does look to be a better chance for rain with a cut-off low pressure system.  Right now it looks like that may pass either late Wednesday night or sometime on Thursday.

Turkey Day Stats

It will actually be a fairly average Thanksgiving day holiday for the Stateline area. The high temperature for this afternoon is 43° while the forecast high is set for 45°. But most Thanksgivings on average are spent in the 30's. Since records have been kept over the last 110 years, forty one of those have been spent in the 30's and thirty six years have been in the 40's.

The warmest Thanksgiving we've had? That would be November 26th, 1914 when the high was  67°; but the 'coldest' high is 17° on November 27th, 1930. There's even been a fair amount of snow thats fallen on Thanksgiving, even though the majority are dry. Back in 1968, 4.5" of snow fell in the Rockford area on Thanksgiving.

This year expect highs in the mid 40's under mostly sunny skies and light southwest winds.

Hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Warm and Windy for Black Friday Shoppers

A strong low pressure system moving into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest late Thursday and Friday will bring an unseasonably warm air mass into much of the Stateline.  Winds will increase from the southwest during the afternoon and with very little moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, skies will most likely remain mostly sunny through much of Friday. 

The combination of sunny skies and strong southwest winds will push afternoon highs into the upper 50's, if not near 60 degrees, Friday!  The average high temperature for Friday is only 43 degrees.  Wind gusts Friday afternoon will be around 30 mph from the southwest.

Wednesday Travel Forecast

Heading out and traveling today? Overall the forecast across most of the country looks great! There are just a few things to keep in mind as you head out the door.

No worries through the state of Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana. If you're heading north into Wisconsin late today or tonight, there will be light snow that develops ahead of a warm front. About a half an inch of snow is possible just north of the Dells. Snow will also be found northwest of that through northern Wisconsin, and through Minnesota. There is a small chance for flurries over northeast Iowa, but most of the snow probabilities will stay north of 94.

Through the afternoon today, light lake effect snow will be noticed through northern Michigan and right along the lake shore.

Otherwise, high pressure moving in today will keep sunshine in the forecast across Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Thanksgiving Holiday Forecast

The forecast looks pretty quiet the next several days, including Thanksgiving Day.  High pressure moves overhead Wednesday keeping most of the Midwest dry, but temperatures below average.

A fast moving clipper system does move through Minnesota and Wisconsin Wednesday and early Thursday, but shouldn't have too much of an impact on our weather locally for Thanksgiving Day.  As a cold front skirts through southern Wisconsin late Wednesday night, it's possible there could be a passing shower or two.  But our atmosphere will remain very dry and this may limit any precipitation from making it to the ground.

Up and Down Temperatures through the Holiday Weekend

The high temperature of 47 degrees Tuesday was reached a little after 1 AM.  Since then, the numbers have been falling as colder air spills south.  Overnight lows Tuesday will drop into the low 20's, with a few spots even down into the upper teens.  This a result of high pressure moving through the Stateline.

Temperatures through the holiday weekend will be more like a roller coaster ride as numbers fall back into the 30's for Wednesday, and then into the 50's for Friday, only to drop back down into the 30's for Sunday.

A series of storm systems will pass through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this week.  Each one will draw in a little warmth with it, but also pull down cooler air as it passes, leading to the rise and fall of highs this week.  With the majority of Gulf moisture blocked this week the chance for rain will remain minimal.  It looks like Friday evening/night we may get a few passing showers with the arrival of a cold front.  After that the weekend is looking dry.