Sunday, May 19, 2019

Scattered Storms Early Sunday Afternoon

 Here are a couple wind gusts reported from earlier Sunday afternoon:

(2:39:21 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Union [Mchenry Co, IL] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M51 MPH at 12:52 PM CDT -- weatherbug station.

(2:39:21 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Harvard [Mchenry Co, IL] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M51 MPH at 12:38 PM CDT -- weatherbug station.

(2:39:21 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Capron [Boone Co, IL] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M47 MPH at 12:31 PM CDT --

A line of non-severe thunderstorms moved through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin producing wind gust to near 50 mph and pea to dime sized hail.  That line has now moved into southeast Wisconsin with skies turning partly cloudy to the west.  A few additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible into the early afternoon as a cold front moves east.

Temperatures warmed into the low 70s ahead of the storms but have since cooled off into the 50s and 60s, although we'll likely see temperatures rebound a little for the remainder of the afternoon.  Once the cold front passes skies will remain dry Sunday night into Monday. 

Friday, May 17, 2019

Isolated Storms Friday Night - Stronger Storms Possible Over the Weekend

A passing cold front early Friday morning brought temperatures down from the mid and upper 60s, down into the 50s for most of the afternoon.

Light showers moved through parts of the Stateline during the afternoon with dry, but cloudy, skies through the early evening.  An east wind for most of the day has held instability down quite a bit, but building instability above the surface has allowed for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop.  Most of the activity has been across northeast Iowa moving into southwest Wisconsin, but a few isolated heavier rain showers have developed further southeast in Illinois. 

Most of the storm activity will remain north of the state line with only isolated showers and storms expected overnight.  A warm front will lift north through Friday morning, passing into southern Wisconsin by Saturday afternoon.  Temperatures will warm following the front into the upper 70s with mostly dry skies until early afternoon.

Low pressure will approach from the west and southwest, moving into Iowa by late Saturday afternoon.  As it does moisture and instability will build over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with a threat for storms by 2pm/3pm Saturday.  Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening, lasting through Sunday afternoon.  The highest threat for severe weather will remain west of the Mississippi River Saturday but a few stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible locally.  The storm threat will then shift east during the day Sunday.

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Severe Thunderstorms Thursday Evening

(11:24:01 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 4 SW Steward [Lee Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 11:14 PM CDT -- golf ball size on route 251, 3 miles north of route 30.

11:15pm Update: NEW Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northeast Lee and DeKalb counties until Midnight. Two inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible. Storm is moving east at 40 mph.

11:05pm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for central Lee County until 11:45pm.  Storm located near Franklin Grove was moving east at 25 mph.  Storm will be capable of ping pong sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph.


10:35pm Update: A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for southwest Lee County until 1:30am Friday morning.  A slow moving storm located over southwest Lee County will continue to produce very heavy rainfall.  Already two inches of rain has fallen between 9pm and 10:30pm.  Flash Flooding will remain mainly over rural areas of southwest Lee County. 

10:30pm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue for Lee and Whiteside counties.  Starting to notice a little broad rotation with the storm in southwest Lee County.  This could increase the large hail threat, but also pose a wind threat.  Storm hasn't moved much and is likely producing very heavy rainfall!

New Severe Thunderstorm Warning for southwest Lee county until 10:30pm.  Storms have had a history of producing hail, some large, over Whiteside and Lee counties.  Hail will continue to be main concern with storms, along with very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. 

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings remain in effect for Lee and DeKalb counties until 10:15pm.  The storm located south of Rochelle is capable of producing hail as large as ping pong ball.  Seek shelter indoors and away from windows until this storm has passed.  It is currently moving to the east at 30 mph. 

(9:46:34 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 SSE Ashton [Lee Co, IL] public reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 09:29 PM CDT -- i-88 near ashton.

(9:46:34 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 SSE Ashton [Lee Co, IL] public reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 09:29 PM CDT -- i-88 near ashton.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue for Lee and DeKalb counties.  Ping pong sized hail possible with these storms as they move east.  Remain indoors and away from windows. 

(9:35:50 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Franklin Grove [Lee Co, IL] public reports HAIL of ping pong ball size (M1.50 INCH) at 09:23 PM CDT --

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Whiteside County until 10pm.  Storm is moving east at 25 mph.  Quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible. 

Storm over Dixon is capable of large hail - especially in the circled area.  Heads up for those in its path.  

NEW Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lee County until 9:45pm.  This storm was located over Dixon, moving east at 25 mph.  Heads up Ashton, Franklin Grove - storm is moving in your direction.  Quarter sized hail biggest threat.  @MyStateline #ilwx

(8:16:47 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 SSE Morrison [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 08:00 PM CDT -- several episodes of hail for past 10 minutes. no wind or rain with the hail.

The Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Whiteside County has been canceled. 

A NEW Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Carroll, Whiteside, Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties until 3am Friday morning.

A NEW Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Whiteside County until 8:15pm.  This storm was located near Clinton, IA, moving east at 25 mph and capable of producing quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph.

(7:25:19 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Harmon [Lee Co, IL] public reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 06:53 PM CDT --

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Lee County until 7:30pm Thursday evening.  The storm was located near Amboy, moving east/southeast at 30 mph.  Wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to quarter sized possible. 

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Thunderstorms Likely Thursday - Some Strong to Severe

Thunderstorms are possible both Thursday morning and Thursday evening, with a chance for some of the storms to become strong to severe.

High pressure will continue to slide southeast of the Stateline Wednesday evening with southerly winds holding temperatures in the low 50s through Thursday morning.  Ongoing storms over North Dakota and Minnesota will continue to move through Minnesota and eventually into Wisconsin by early Thursday morning, posing a wind threat across central Wisconsin.  A weakening trend, however, should occur as the storms move into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  If storms were to maintain their strength, a wind and small hail threat would be possible through early Thursday afternoon.

As a cold front approaches late in the day Thursday, scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening and night.  Depending on what happens with the storms Thursday morning will determine just how intense storms will be Thursday evening, if they form at all. 

Thunderstorms Thursday evening would be capable of producing strong winds and large hail before transitioning into a heavy rain threat Thursday night and Friday morning. 

Saturday, May 11, 2019

Mother's Day Forecast

This Sunday is a very special day for many reasons, but the most important reason would be to celebrate the moms out there. With that said, we at the First Warn Weather Team would like to wish an early Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there!

It's definitely going to be a chilly start to Mother's Day this year. Temperatures overnight look to drop down into the low 40's with a few spots in the upper 30's. So, it wouldn't be a bad idea to grab a jacket if you are an early bird and have to head out early tomorrow morning.

Now, we will start off the morning with a few breaks in the clouds which will allow some sunshine to peek through. But clouds will quickly be on the increase as a weak disturbance will pass to the west and south of the region. As it does, it looks like there is enough moisture that pulls northward that could pop a few isolated showers during the afternoon. Any shower activity will remain light, but it will make you think twice about outdoor plans.

Temperatures on Mother's Day will be still below average and chilly with highs in the upper 50s. Clouds will then be on the decrease as we head  into Sunday night with lows dropping down into the low 40s yet again. The good news is, prepare for a slight warm up after Mother's Day. A gradual warm-up towards more spring-like temperatures is coming to the Stateline. This will be likely by the middle of next week, with temperatures climbing near 70-degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday. Once again, Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there!

Friday, May 10, 2019

Chilly and Rainy Start to May

Temperatures for the first week and a half of May have been anything but warm, and nearly every day has recorded a little bit of rain.

Friday was dry but the chance for rain returns heading into Mother's Day weekend.  Low pressure will spin closer to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Friday night and Saturday.  Cloud cover will be on the increase Saturday morning with a few light showers possible late morning and afternoon. 

Scattered showers will also be possible Sunday afternoon as low pressure moves through Iowa and central Illinois.  The weekend is not expected to be a washout but it will be cooler than normal with the cloud cover and periodic showers.

A Flood Advisory remains in effect for parts of the Rock and Kishwaukee Rivers as river levels went into 'Action Stage' following the recent rainfall.  Flooding, however, is not expected and rivers should continue to fall this weekend and early next week.

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Heavy Rain Producing Storms Move Through - Slight Risk for Strong Thunderstorms Wednesday Evening

10:30pm Update: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue overnight with the biggest concern remaining heavy rainfall.  The warm front has now lifted into northern Illinois and this will keep temperatures in the low 60s through Thursday morning.


 7:43pm Update: A line of heavy rainfall continues to move east Wednesday evening, approaching the I-39 corridor.  Earlier this line produced nearly an inch of rain in Freeport.  Heavy downpours will be our greatest concern as the rain continues to move east.  Ponding water on the roads and in ditches will be likely. 

Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase Wednesday evening ahead of an advancing warm front and low pressure system.

As of 7pm a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms extend from near Brodhead, WI all the way down to Dixon.  Very heavy downpours will occur with this line as it advances north and northeast.  Thunderstorms this evening are forming north of a strong a warm front and are moving through an environment with little instability.  However, wind shear in the atmosphere over northern Illinois is very high.  Wind shear is the changing of wind speed/direction with height.

While our overall severe threat remains low the high wind shear environment could cause some of these storms to rotate producing brief funnels as they move through.  Very rarely do these types of funnels reach the ground.  The biggest concern as these storms pass will be the heavy rainfall.

This line will pass through by 10pm with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected into Thursday morning.