Saturday, July 21, 2018

Lingering Rain and the Rest of the Weekend

Other than a few brief-pop up showers it turned out to be a fairly nice afternoon with a few peeks of sunshine.  This helped temperatures to warm up a bit more into the upper 70s too, but now we've got more isolated showers pushing through the area, which will keep skies cloudy for the evening, but luckily we're nearly back on track for where we're supposed to be at with rain totals.

Before the storms moved through Thursday night, we were just over a 1.5" deficit.  The downpours, while unpleasant, did help get our numbers back up, now only sitting at a deficit of a quarter of an inch.

As we go through the evening, isolated showers will continue for the early portion of the evening, as everything is expected to dry up by 10pm.

Everything stays dry for the overnight, and any rain that moves towards our area will stay to the east or fizzle out before reaching us.  Not all the moisture will be gone though, as muggy conditions are expected during the overnight with dew points in the mid 60's, with warm temperatures around 70°.

Dry air starts sinking in on Sunday, but a brief pop-up shower will be possible mid-day, otherwise we're looking dry.  Cloud cover will be similar to today, with mostly cloudy conditions and a few peeks of sunshine.  Temperatures will be in the upper 70's again during the afternoon.

Once we get into the work week, a high pressure system will form in the northern plains and push more dry air into the area.  This will bring the sunshine back, along with warmer temperatures in the mid 80's.

We keep those same conditions until Wednesday, when thunderstorms chances start going back up for the Stateline.

Friday, July 20, 2018

Rain Exits Soon and Cooler Temperatures

Rain has made quite the presence across the Stateline since Thursday night, as some spots have picked up over an inch of rain. The heavy downpours allowed for these locations to pick up the rainfall quickly, with Stockton seeing the most rain in a short time period of over 3 inches! Rockford picked up a little over an inch of rain, and Freeport picking up just an inch.

The isolated showers will continue for this evening and overnight.  With all the moisture content, patchy fog will develop overnight, some of which will be dense, so do be cautious when out on the roads late tonight.

Most of Saturday will have isolated showers still pushing through, but once we get into late afternoon some drier air will start filtering in from the north, pushing the rain out of the area.  This will help us stay mostly dry for Saturday night, and even stay dry for the rest of the weekend.  However, the low's presence will still allow for cloudy skies through Sunday evening.

Once we get into the work week, sunshine will return as the drier air will keep filtering into our area.  This will also keep temperatures more mild heading into next week, staying around 80° towards the beginning of the week, but warming back into the mid 80's by Tuesday.

Severe Outbreak Expected for Portions of the U.S. Today

Yesterday tied the second most active tornado day this year, with a preliminary 28 tornado reports recorded across Iowa and other portions of the Midwest and Plains. Today will be another day to watch, with more severe weather expected. Today, the threat has shifted ahead of a cold front, and is positioned over the Ohio River Valley.

An enhanced and moderate risk for severe storms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for areas including most of Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Large damaging hail, strong damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will all be possible as storms develop this afternoon, (especially in orange and red areas). If you have friends or family in that area, you might want to give them a heads up so they can be prepared should/when warnings get issued.

Locally, scattered showers and embedded thunder is over the next couple days are possible. Rain will be rather light, but at times will pick up to turn more moderate to briefly heavy, in any storms we do get. On and off rain chances continues through the evening and into Saturday. A few isolated chances remain through early Sunday.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Thursday Storms and A Gloomy Weekend

We had some showers move through during the afternoon, the only shower remaining is in northern Dekalb County pushing into McHenry county.  Now we've got thunderstorms pushing in from the west, some of which are on the strong side.  These will continue to push eastward as we go through the evening, and if you live out west there are a couple of things to watch out for.

The main threats for these storms will be downpours and strong winds.  Jo Daviess and Carroll counties have the best chances for seeing these, as the storms will gradually weaken afterwards as they push eastwards.

We'll have a few storm systems move through during the evening, but after 7pm the potential for anything severe goes down.  As these storms weaken while they track east, a brief strong wind gust will be possible east of Jo Daviess and Carroll counties, but otherwise the storms will weaken quite a bit, and eventually become isolated during the overnight.

This low pressure system to the north will allow the rain to become more scattered again by early Friday morning.  That low will slowly track eastward heading towards the weekend, keeping on and off rain in the area through Saturday.
 However, once we reach Saturday evening, rain chances will nearly be gone, as this low begins its exit from our area, taking the lingering moisture with it.  Afterwards, some dry air will move in from the north, but clouds will linger and keep the sunshine fairly low for the end of the weekend.

With this low slowly moving through, it'll also pull some cooler air into the area, keeping temperatures in the mid 70's heading through the weekend.  Temperatures stay generally cool even through next week, with temperatures expected to reach the 80's by mid-week

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Scattered Rain and Storm Chances Through the End of the Week

A picture perfect Wednesday on tap for us today, with high pressure centered over Lake Michigan. Today, a disturbance moves out of the Rockies and develops into a low pressure in the Plains. Low pressure will move into Minnesota and Wisconsin through Thursday, and will develop rain and storms to our west in the afternoon. Its possible for a few showers to hold together Thursday afternoon and make their way east into the Stateline late day, but the coverage doesn't look to be much. A higher chance for rain and thunder arrives Thursday evening as another round of storms develops east and moves into the area. Again they will be weakening but should hold together to bring a threat for a few scattered showers and storms overnight.

The rain threat will clear Friday morning with the cold front passing to our south in the morning. There is a chance for showers and some thunder to develop again Friday afternoon, but higher coverage will be to our south with higher instability in place. As low pressure passes to our east, along with an upper level trough, a few showers or a rumble of thunder will be possible Saturday and Sunday. While the threat for rain lingers through the weekend, it won't be a washout by any means. The highest chance for rain will be Thursday evening into Friday with mainly light isolated chances into the weekend.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

What's the Difference?

Do you ever wonder what the difference is between dew point temperature and relative humidity, and why meteorologists focus more on the dew point temperature rather than humidity? It's because the dew point temperature is a more accurate way of showing the amount of water vapor in the air, and the impact it has on our comfort level.

For example, if both the air temperature and dew point temperature are at 60 degrees, the relative humidity is equal to 100 percent. But when the temperature is 100 degrees and the dew point temperature is 70 degrees, the relative humidity is about 40 percent. The relative humidity in this case is lower because it represents how much the atmosphere is saturated at a certain temperature, whereas dew point temperature represents the temperature at which air becomes saturated. The warmer an air mass becomes, the more moisture it is able to hold. So even though the relative humidity is 100 percent when both the air and dew point temperature are at 60 degrees, it feels more comfortable than when the air temperature is at 100 degrees and the dew point temperature is at 70 degrees. Anytime the dew point is higher than 60 degrees, it begins to feel uncomfortable.

Cooling Off This Week

What a beautiful Tuesday morning! Temperatures in the low 70's now across the Stateline, but you may have noticed it feels much more comfortable outside! Dew points are more mild around 60°, and they'll stay that way the rest of the day.  This nice weather doesn't last forever though, as thunderstorms will make a presence this week.

 As we go through today, a high pressure system will track down from the north, continuously pulling cool, dry air into the area.  This will keep temperatures in the low 80's during the afternoon, and keep the low humidity too.  A few clouds will move on through this afternoon, but even then we'll still be sunny.

Once we get into the evening any lingering clouds will dissipate, as that high sinks into the Stateline for the overnight.  As it does so, it'll get access to more cool air, which will end up bringing us into the upper 50's during the overnight, with rural, flat areas dipping to the mid 50's overnight.

A little bit of patchy fog will also be possible during the overnight as temperatures will be cooling off quickly, but it'll still feel comfortable outside.  You might even want to open your windows to get some free air conditioning!

That high will be sitting just northeast of us for Wednesday, and we'll see the same conditions that apply for today, the only difference being less cloud cover.

You'll want to take advantage of the nice weather today and Wednesday, because once Thursday arrives we'll have a low pressure system track into the area, which will bring in some thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon.  These will last through the overnight into Friday morning, and some thunderstorms may pack a punch.

Other than the thunderstorms, things look dry this week, with cool and comfortable conditions in store the rest of the week.  Temperatures will only be in the mid to upper 70's this weekend, with a passing rain shower possible on Sunday.