Friday, October 20, 2017

First Fall Freeze A Week Away

We've been pretty spoiled this month when it comes to the weather, at least with the temperatures.  The monthly average temperature for October is a whopping 6.8 degree above average!  That's pretty impressive. 

But it looks like our luck is about to run out late next week.  A cold front Sunday will knock high temperatures only down into the 60's for both Sunday and Monday.  A second cold front late Monday night will push afternoon highs on Tuesday into the mid 50's.  It'll feel colder, but only because we've become used to such mild weather.  And actually highs in the 50's will be closer to our 'normal' temperature than what we are currently.

Tuesday night will be cold, and most likely blustery.  It looks like we'll have a little wind to deal with during the afternoon, along with scattered rain showers.  Depending on how much cloud cover sticks around Tuesday evening, overnight lows could fall into the mid 30's. 

By the end of next week another cold front, and a stronger one, will help pull down an even colder air mass over the Midwest and Great Lakes.  This could push high temperatures on Friday only into the upper 40's!  If we don't see a freeze Tuesday night, it's most likely to happen either next Friday or Saturday night.  Temperatures Friday night could fall into the low 30's and Saturday night into the upper 20's!

Typically our first fall freeze occurs anywhere between the 8th and 10th of October, with a hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) occurring about a week after.

So get out and enjoy Saturday (even though it will be breezy and cloudy) because this may be our last mild weekend until next Spring.

Improvement in Drought Conditions

The early summer months were pretty wet with June and July recording monthly rainfall totals well above average.  The pattern then changed drastically to a much more dry pattern during August and September, and even the beginning of October.  After several weeks of very little rainfall, the National Drought Mitigation Center put northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under 'abnormally dry' conditions.

Late last week and over this past weekend we
received enough rain to help put our monthly rainfall total for October above average.  The first time that has happened since July.  The latest release of the Drought Monitor shows the rainfall helped, at least locally.  Dry conditions still remain over parts of Boone and McHenry counties, and southeast Wisconsin.  But if you compare the drought monitor from last week to this week, you'll notice an improvement.

It doesn't look like we'll be entering into any extended dry period of time, at least in the near term.  Next chance for rain arrives this Sunday.

Pattern Change on the Horizon will Bring Falling Temperatures Next Week

This week has been phenomenal, with highs climbing into the 70's for the past several days. The great weather continues into the first half of the weekend, with 70's in the forecast through Saturday.

We won't notice as much sunshine Saturday, compared to the rest of the week, as moisture levels and clouds increase ahead of our next cold front. Our first cold front will pass Sunday, and will bring temperatures back near average, with highs in the 60s's through Monday. The reason it won't 'cool off' too much, is because the air mass behind the front originated in the Pacific Northwest. Air masses from this area are typically mild in nature.

However, there is a pattern change on the horizon that will drop temperatures even more, and even has the potential to bring on the first freeze of the season. To find the reason for the pattern change, you have to look west......way west. We set our sights on the Pacific Ocean, near the Philippines. This is where now Typhoon Lan is positioned, to the east of Manilla. Typhoon Lan is forecast to strengthen to a Super Typhoon as it nears Japan this weekend. As Lan moves north, it forces jet stream winds north as well, and they strengthen. This will shuffle multiple lows along those jet winds this week. There will be a stronger low moving into the Gulf of Alaska into the weekend, which will create divergence and strengthening in the jet stream winds. As this happens, it will dislodge a colder Canadian air mass that will dive south across the Midwest, Plains, and east coast next week. Temperatures will crash into the low to mid 50's by the middle of next week, but overnight lows have the potential to fall into the 30's. This could prompt the first freeze of the season! Typically the first freeze occurs on average the 10th of October.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

2017-2018 Winter Outlook Issued

It's barely felt like fall and yet we're already looking ahead to the winter season.  NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) issued their 2017-2018 Winter Outlook for the United States.  It's important to remember when looking at long range outlooks like these, that they should be taken more as a guide, rather than an absolute.

There are many different variables forecasters and climatologists look at to help them put together long range forecasts.  One such factor is the likelihood of La Niña conditions developing late this fall and winter.  La Niña is when sea surface temperatures around the Equatorial Pacific show a cooling trend over a certain period of time - usually 3 months.  The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Watch for the Northern Hemisphere.  Typically, La Niña patterns tends to favor cooler than normal temperatures over the northern Rockies and far northern Plains, with drier than normal conditions over the south and wetter than normal conditions over the Ohio River Valley.

The 2017 and 2018 Winter Outlook calls for a higher probability for cooler than normal temperatures over the High Plains, with a higher probability of warmer than normal conditions over the south.

There is a higher probability for wetter than normal conditions over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, as well as for the northern Rockies.  Drier than normal conditions are possible over the south, and especially over the southeast.

Snow lovers may look at this forecast and think that the 'wetter than normal' probability means more snowfall.  And that's not necessarily the case.  Snow storms, along with the strength and duration of cold spells, depends on individual storm systems as different weather patterns in the atmosphere develop.  Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says other factors that influence winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.  The Arctic Oscillation influences how often cold air masses are pushed into the south and are often times difficult to predict more than a couple weeks in advance.  If the Arctic Oscillation locks into a 'negative phase', then the likelihood of colder air into the lower 48 increases.

So while it's interesting to look at these long range outlooks, it also important to understand that they can, and probably will, change.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Illinois Fall Harvest Well Underway

It's been a tough season for local farmers.  From too much rainfall towards the end of Spring and beginning of Summer, to not enough rain during the months of August and September.  Yield will most likely be affected, but the warmer weather did allow farmers to begin their soybean harvest about two weeks early. 

The weekly Illinois Crop Progress and Condition Report does show corn harvested is a bit behind schedule when compared to last year and the five year average.  This most likely a result of farmers either having to replant their corn at the beginning of the season, or having to plant a different variety.

Soybeans harvested are actually doing fairly well throughout the state and are ahead of last year's progress and the five year average.

The most recent rain over the weekend probably put some farmers a little behind schedule where fields were flooded.  This occurred mostly southeast of the immediate area where training thunderstorms last Saturday and Saturday night brought nearly nine inches of rain in a few isolated spots.

The weather this week will cooperate with the harvest and the wind will help dry out any fields that may still be a little too wet for farm equipment to move through.

The next chance for rain arrives late Saturday evening and into Sunday. 

Fall Color Report

You wouldn't think we were nearing the end of October with our high temperatures trending over ten degrees above average, but at least its looking like it outside! The fall colors in the Stateline area really starting to pop and will continue to over the next week or so.

Typically in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, peak fall colors happen around the middle to end of October, so we may just be a smidge  behind the times. This is most likely due to the stretch of dry and warm weather we've had across the Stateline in September and the begining of October. But now that the nights have been consistently crisp and cool, and the days have overall been sunny, the fall colors are really starting to show.

Currently, only a few counties in northern Wisconsin are past peak,while much of northern and central Wisconsin is at peak color. Typically, this happens more towards the begining of october.

Southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois are nearing peak colors while a little farther south of us, the fall colors are a bit more spotty.

But with sunshine and temperatures in the 70's the next several days, it will be perfect weather to take a scenic drive. Along route 2 or into Wisconsin will be just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to some of the beautiful fall colors to be seen nearby! 

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Wind Driven Warmth this Week

Winds are not expected to be overly strong this week, but wind gusts topping 30 mph are certainly possible, especially on Wednesday.  The direction of the wind makes a big difference in temperatures this time of the year.  Southwest winds will help pull warmth from the south, warming temperatures into the low to mid 70's through the end of the week.

Several low pressure systems will ride along the US/Canadian border this week, while high pressure sits over the southeast.  The difference in pressure between the two will cause winds to become gusty at times.  Southwest winds will last until a cold front moves through Saturday night.  Cooler air does settle in behind the front with temperatures falling below average into next week.

Cubs Forecast Looks Good

Weather shouldn't be an issue for the Cubs/Dodgers game Tuesday night.  Crystal clear skies with a breeze from the southwest and temperatures in the low 60's can be expected at first pitch.

As the sun sets, temperatures will cool rather quickly.  By the end of the game expect low to mid 50's with a light breeze.  Bring a jacket if you're heading out to Wrigley Field Tuesday evening.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Jet Stream Pattern Keeps Active Storms to the North

After a brisk start Monday morning, temperatures warmed up nicely for the afternoon.  Highs in Rockford reached 63 degrees, spot on the average high temperature for the day.

There will be a couple cool nights, but overall the week brings another warm up with temperatures rising nearly ten degrees above average.  The reason for this warmer pattern has a lot to do with the placement of the jet stream.  High pressure over the east and southern Plains remains locked in place this week.  This means above average temperatures in the south and over much of the Midwest.

Storms systems will move in from the west and follow the flow of the jet stream.  High pressure to the south will block any movement of the storms to the south, keeping our skies dry through the end of the week.  The jet stream pattern breaks down a bit over the weekend, sinking back south as low pressure moves in from the west.  Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled northward ahead of a cold front Saturday, bringing rain showers into Sunday.

It looks like the weather pattern gets a little more active late next week and possibly towards the end of the month.  This could mean more of an opportunity for cooler air to be pulled south into the Stateline.

Frosty Morning!

It's been a frosty morning across the Stateline, as temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 30's for most. Galena's morning temperature fell all the way down to 35°, while Rockford hoovered around 38°. It hasn't been this chilly in the morning since early May, about five months ago!

If you aren't a fan of the chilly temps don't worry, overnight lows moderate into the 50's by the weekend!

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Average First Freeze

Temperatures Sunday night are forecast to fall into the upper 30's under partly cloudy skies.  With winds turning light, patchy frost is possible over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin by Monday morning.

Widespread frost is not expected, but low lying and more typical 'cool' spots could develop patchy frost overnight.

On average, we typically experience our first freeze - 32 degrees or cooler - around the 10th of October and our first hard freeze - 28 degrees or cooler - around the 18th of October.  With such a mild fall so far, temperatures overnight have not fallen below 40 degrees in Rockford.  There have been some spots, like Freeport and Rochelle, that have experienced temperatures in the 30's.

Monday morning will be our coolest morning this week.  Winds shifting around to the southwest will bump not only high temperatures back into the 70's, but overnight lows back into the 40's and 50's.

Heavy Rainfall Saturday Evening

Several rounds of heavy rain occurred over the weekend, with the heaviest rain falling over Lee and DeKalb counties.  The image on the left is observed rainfall totals - notice the axis of heavy rain to the south where anywhere between 5 inches to 9 inches of rain occurred.  The extreme rainfall was a result of several training thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday.

Rockford broke its daily rainfall record for Saturday with 1.80" of rain.  The old record was 1.07 inches set back in 2014.  Thunderstorms also produced severe weather, with most of the damaging thunderstorms moving through west-central and central Illinois.

Click here for a full list of rainfall totals.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

A Fall-Like Sunday with a Warm Week Ahead

It's looking much more quiet over Rockford with our Mercyhealth Skycam.  The thunderstorms, wind gusts, and heavy downpours are now out of our area.  We'll continue to see rain during the overnight, but there will be much lighter rain showers.  We can't rule out a few spots of heavier rain until 1am, but after that point it'll just be lighter rainfall.  The lighter rain will stay with us through Sunday morning, before clearing out for the afternoon where we'll have very fall-like temperatures only hitting the mid 50's for our highs.  Along with that, it'll be breezy with wind gusts looking to pick up to possibly 30mph.

Skies will stay cloudy during Sunday afternoon, but will start to clear up during the evening.  Along with that, cold air will keep pushing into our area, and these two factors will allow for some frigid temperatures during the overnight Monday the upper 30's!  However, if you don't like the cold, you're in luck because the sunshine returns for the work week and temperatures will warm back up.  There is a chance we could hit the upper 70's by the end of the week.

 It'll be nice to get some dry time because we saw quite a bit of rain today, some locations seeing over 3 inches of rain! It's a good thing we've made up for the lack of rain we had last month, but localized flooding will definitely be a concern with how much rain we've seen.

Flash flood watches are in place across the Stateline until 4am Sunday.  There are technically still two tornado watches in place in Carroll and Whiteside counties, but these aren't anything to be concerned with as the strong storms are now out of our area.

Friday, October 13, 2017

A few strong storms to start the weekend

We've had a cloudy end to the work week, only seeing a few peaks of sunshine during the late hours of the morning.  Showers and thunderstorms moved in during the afternoon, but the thunderstorms have since died down.  A few heavy rain showers still remain, but the count for those will go down as we go through the overnight as we'll mostly see Light to Moderate rain showers.  Those showers will continue through the morning, before thunderstorms return during tomorrow afternoon.

Most areas can expect to see right around three-tenths of an inch of rain by tomorrow morning.  However, some places up north will be a little over half an inch as a stationary front allowed for more showers up to the north.

 We are under a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow during the late afternoon and evening hours.  The Stateline will be seeing scattered, heavy rain showers with a few thunderstorms, but the stronger thunderstorms will stay down south.  However, some of these stronger storms will skim the southern portion of our viewing area.  We can expect strong wind gusts from those storms, along with heavy downpours.  Most places across the Stateline can expect between 1-2 inches of rain total by Sunday morning, but a few places up north have the chance of seeing more rain as that stationary front will stay active.

Winds will pick up quite across the Stateline during the overnight Saturday night as the low pressure system closes into our area.  Everything will calm down after 1am Sunday morning, with only a little bit of lingering light rain through Sunday morning.  Afterwards, we'll have a nice end to the weekend with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 50's for Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures will be mild to start the work week in the low 60's, but we'll warm back up to the low 70's once we get closer to the end of the week.

Heavy Rain Likely this Weekend

In the previous post you read about the potential for heavy rain this weekend, and that is now looking more and more likely.

Rain will begin to move in late Friday afternoon and evening, but generally only about a quarter of an inch will fall. But the heavy rain threat really ramps up Saturday afternoon and evening. In general, 1.50"-2.50" of rain will fall, but in the stronger storms over 3" is more than possible. The available moisture in the atmosphere this weekend, is about 200% above what's typically found.

 There is a threat for strong to potentially severe storms. For northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, a marginal severe weather outlook is in place. But, near the Quad Cities and southwest of that is where the 'slight' outlook, or higher potential for severe storms is. Heavy rain, strong winds, and hail will be possible in storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Even though we are in the middle of October, severe weather is still possible!

Once the secondary cold front passes early Sunday morning, the threat for rain will end. We'll even notice some sunshine late Sunday afternoon. But it will be windy and feeling much cooler! Temperatures go from the low 70's Saturday to the low to mid 50's Sunday.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain Return for the Weekend

Cloud cover should break just in time for temperatures to warm into the low 70's Friday afternoon.  An incoming cold front from the northwest will bring a chance for showers, and even a few isolated thunderstorms, as early as Friday afternoon, over southwest and south-central Wisconsin and over much of northern Illinois by Friday evening.

That cold front will settle just south of the immediate Stateline Friday night and Saturday.  Scattered showers will continue into Saturday morning and early afternoon.  Low pressure moving out of the central Plains will pull the front back north as a warm front late Saturday, allowing temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70's. 

Low pressure will move through the Plains and into northeast Iowa by Saturday evening, and into southwest Wisconsin by Sunday morning.  The placement of the low, combined with the warm front, cold front and upper level winds, could be enough to get a few stronger thunderstorms to develop over the Midwest and Missouri River Valley.  The threat for strong storms even extends up into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Surface instability will lacking due to the cloud cover and rain during most of the afternoon, but winds will be very strong aloft.  And this could cause a few gustier thunderstorms to occur with the incoming cold front.  Further southwest, thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible. 

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with rain totals adding up to nearly two inches in some spots.  The heavy rain late Tuesday night didn't cause too many issues with flooding.  But if an additional two inches of rain occurs over the weekend, minor flooding could become a concern.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Soggy Stateline

It's been awhile since we've had a good soaking rain in the Stateline! Here's a quick look at a few area rain totals, many areas picking up between 1.5"-2.5" when the rain ended this morning!

Here is the observation list, from the National Weather Service in Chicago:

Illinois Rain Location (County): fall (inches)
Rochelle (Ogle)..............................2.80
Belvidere 2NW (Boone)........................2.79
 Belvidere (Boone)............................2.63
Steward (Lee)................................2.60
Woodstock (McHenry)..........................2.57
Algonquin 1N (McHenry).......................2.34
Capron (Boone)...............................2.33
Woodstock 4SW (McHenry)......................2.26
De Kalb (De Kalb)............................2.13
Rochelle (Ogle)..............................2.13
Rockford 1NW (Winnebago).....................2.12
Somonauk (De Kalb)...........................2.10
Genoa (De Kalb)..............................2.09
Byron 3N (Ogle)..............................2.09
Roscoe 2ESE (Winnebago)......................2.06
Roscoe 2se (Winnebago).......................2.06
Dixon 3NNW (Lee).............................2.05
Rockford (Winnebago).........................2.00
Lakemoor 2NW (McHenry).......................1.97
Machesney Park 3ENE (Winnebago)..............1.96
Woodstock 5nw (McHenry)......................1.88
Kingston 2WNW (De Kalb)......................1.80
Wonder Lake 1NE (McHenry)....................1.77
Cortland (De Kalb)...........................1.76
Paw Paw (Lee)................................1.74
Somonauk 2NE (De Kalb).......................1.70
Dixon 2SW (Lee)..............................1.68
Dekalb (De Kalb).............................1.65
Dixon (Lee)..................................1.65
Crystal Lake 1WSW (McHenry)..................1.63
Earlville 5NNE (De Kalb).....................1.60
Harvard (McHenry)............................1.55

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Tuesday Evening Weather Update

Moderate rain fell over parts of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin late Tuesday afternoon with totals adding up to around a quarter of an inch over the immediate Stateline, but near an inch of rain closer to Dubuque and Galena. 

As a surface low pressure system moves through central Illinois, an upper level low will be moving out of Iowa and into northern Illinois Tuesday evening.  This will cause rain to move back in from the southwest, which it is already beginning to do so, and continue through Midnight.  Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue into the overnight with rainfall totals adding up between an inch and an inch and a half by mid-morning Wednesday.

The surface low will be east of Illinois by Wednesday morning, but moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere will keep the cloud cover around through much of Wednesday.  There will be light showers in the morning, turning to drizzle by the late afternoon and evening.

Monday, October 9, 2017

Rainy and Cool Next Couple of Days

High temperatures Monday afternoon warmed to 82 degrees in Rockford!  A whopping sixteen degrees above average!  With clearing skies Monday night, overnight lows will drop down into the low 50's.  Clouds will thicken up ahead of low pressure early Tuesday and this will lead to rain by Tuesday afternoon and evening over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Low pressure will pull away from the Rockies overnight Monday, lifting northeast through southern and central Illinois Tuesday.  Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled back north allowing rain showers to move in, beginning as early as Tuesday afternoon.  The rain may move in a little sooner for areas south and west of Rockford.

High levels of moisture in the atmosphere will allow for heavier downpours, especially late Tuesday evening.

Rainfall totals of one, to even two, inches of rain could fall during this time.  Most of the accumulating rain will be done by Wednesday morning, with drizzle lasting through Wednesday afternoon.  A persistent East wind, cloudy skies and periodic rain showers will hold temperatures in the low to mid 60's both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Cold Air Lacking the First Week of October

The average monthly temperature for the first week of October is nearly nine degrees above average!  That's because high temperatures have been above average every single day. 

Another cold front will move in from the west Monday, but there won't be much cold air behind it.  The overall jet stream pattern these past few weeks has been more west to east, versus north to south.  This means despite cold fronts passing through, the cold air just isn't able to make it this
far south or stick around for an extended period of time. 

This upcoming week will feature more of the same.  Temperatures will warm into the 70's for the start of the week, cool down in the 60's (which is seasonable for this time of year) and then rise back into the 70's by the end of the week.

Even looking a bit further into the extended and towards the middle of the month shows very little opportunity for cold air to stick around for any prolonged period of time.

Weak Tornado Saturday Evening East of Madison, WI

The threat for severe weather was extremely low Saturday, but an approaching cold front and strong wind shear in the atmosphere allowed some of the rain showers that moved through to rotate.  And one of those stronger, rotating rain showers produced an EF 0 tornado east of Madison Saturday evening shortly before 5pm.

The National Weather Service conducted a damage survey Sunday and concluded the tornado had winds between 70-80 mph.  It was on the ground for a little over four miles and had a maximum width between 50 and 100 yards.

There were no injuries or fatalities, but the tornado did damage some trees, homes and businesses.  You can find more information on the late season tornado on the Milwaukee National Weather Service website.

A similar situation occurred west of Freeport back on August, 16th.  Heavy rain showers moved through northwest Illinois at the same time a warm front was approaching.  Instability was very weak and marginal, but a heavy rain shower west of Freeport began to rotate as it moved over the warm front.  Two tornadoes occurred that evening, an EF 0 and EF 1.  Read more about those tornadoes here.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

A Gorgeous Sunday and More Rain Next Week

We had another rainy day in the Stateline, with some thunderstorms that moved in during the afternoon.  The storms have since moved north, and all we're left with is a few spots of light rain.  The light rain will last until 10pm tonight.  Afterwards, the clouds will die down during the overnight, setting up what's going to be a beautiful end to the weekend.  We'll be in the upper 70's Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine to go along with it.

As we go into the work week we'll have some cooler air move into our area, which will cool our temperatures to the mid 70's on Monday and the upper 60's on Tuesday.  We'll also have a mid-level trough move in on Tuesday, which will bring us rain chances for the evening and overnight.

After that trough moves out, we'll stay dry going towards the end of the week with temperatures looking to warm back up into the mid 70's by Thursday, then the low 80's going into the weekend.  The warm inflow will increase our rain chances for both Friday and Saturday.

With the rain deficit we've been dealing, it's nice to finally be a decent amount of rain move through our area.  Most locations were around three-tenths of inch of rain total for Friday and Saturday.  However, a few places out west saw more rain as they were closer to the cold front for a longer period of time than everyone else.  Some locations out in Jo Daviess County saw close to an inch of rain. 
So far, we're off to a pretty good start rain-wise for the month of October, as we've seen .23 inches of rain total.  That's only .41 inches behind where we're supposed to be, which is pretty good considering we ended September over 3 inches behind in rain totals.

With more rain on the way next week, things can only get better.

Friday, October 6, 2017

Much Needed Rain to Start the Weekend

It's been a gray end to the work week, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.  We've been in a mini drought for quite some time, putting us over 3 inches behind for the month of September.  We've got a warm front moving through the Stateline, which has been generating light rain showers since the afternoon.  The front will push north tonight, but the rain will continue due to the moisture inflow behind the front, which could lead to some patchy fog during the overnight.

The rain will continue into Saturday before a cold front moves in from the west during the afternoon.  The front will generate a few thunderstorms out west during the early hours of the afternoon, before that front pushes further into the Stateline during the later hours of the afternoon, bringing those thunderstorms further east.  Highs will be in the low 70's during the afternoon.

Most places will end up seeing a little under half an inch of rain by tomorrow afternoon, with some more rain out west since those locations will be closer to the front.  All together, after the front moves out tomorrow evening, most places will have seen around half an inch, with some places out west possibly seeing close to an inch.  There will be a little light rain behind the front during the evening, but that'll die down late at night.

We'll end the weekend on a high note as temperatures will be in the upper 70's with plenty of sunshine to go along with it.  Clouds will build up during the work week as low pressure will develop near our area.  This will keep our temperatures more mild in the upper 60's to low 70's, but also bring us some more rain chances on Tuesday and towards the end of the week.

Thursday, October 5, 2017

14th Named Storm Forms in Caribbean

This is the 10th time on record that fourteen plus named storms have formed through this date. Tropical Depression 16 has been named Nate and is forecast to strengthen to a category one hurricane over the next few days. Nate is moving NW at 8mph,  but is forecast to make a NNW track speeding up late today into tomorrow. The center of this storm is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today, and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea both tonight and Friday.

While the storm won't be a Hurricane before land fall near Central America, it will still produce dangerous amounts of rain. Anywhere from 15-20" of rain will be possible, with isolated amounts up to 30 inches for Nicaragua. Costa Rica and Panama rain totals will add up to 5-10" with isolated amount close to 20" inches. This could cause life-threatening flash floods and even mudslides. Hazards also include strong winds and dangerous surf.

Once Nate moves near the Gulf of Mexico, it is forecast to strengthen to a category one hurricane. Right now the forecast cone is eyeing the panhandle of Florida, along with the southeast coast of Louisiana. We'll keep you posted on developments with Nate as it approaches the U.S., and you can also get in depth updates here.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Rainfall Totals close to Two Inches Possible through the Weekend

Quite the spread in rain totals from late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.  The heaviest rainfall occurred near the Wisconsin/Illinois border, with totals dropping off significantly south of there.

Skies cleared following the early morning shows with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70's.  Even though a majority of the Stateline didn't receive much rain, there are several more chances for rain heading into the weekend.

Skies will remain rain free Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but we will experience mostly cloudy skies at times during the overnight.  Showers over Missouri Wednesday evening will slowly lift north with an advancing warm front Thursday afternoon and evening.  It does look like most of the accumulating rainfall may reside just south of the immediate Stateline Thursday, but as the front lifts north, the rain will move north with it.  Rain showers may become a little more steady late Thursday night, but most likely Friday afternoon and overnight.  The heaviest of the rain could bring totals up over one inch during the two day stretch.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Incoming Front Brings Multiple Chances for Rain

The storm threat Tuesday afternoon resides in Iowa and up through Minnesota, along an incoming cold front; while the low pressure system moves into southern Canada the cold front will pass through the Stateline late tonight into Wednesday morning. Storms will develop this afternoon in Iowa and will head east tonight, the line will be weakening but we can still expect scattered showers and a rumble of thunder this evening and early Wednesday.

The front will sag south and stall in central Illinois, bringing rain south through the rest of Wednesday afternoon. The front will turn stationary as upper level steering winds flatten and turn parallel to the front. But, we aren't done with the rain just yet, another low pressure system will develop to the west at the base of an upper level trough. As it strengthens and moves north, the front will lift north as a front Thursday to Friday.

While there are multiple chances for rain in the forecast, it won't rain all day everyday. Best chance for rain will be tonight into early Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Then again late Thursday into Thursday evening with a few small energy waves moving through the area. Rain threat is low Friday, before ramping up again Friday afternoon into Friday evening with the incoming warm front. Though, forecast details with the rain will still be refined through the end of the week, so make sure to check back for more updates!

Monday, October 2, 2017

From Fall to Summer in Just 24 Hours

You've heard the old saying 'If you don't like the weather in Illinois, just wait 24 hours because it will change'.  Temperatures went from more fall-like over the weekend, back to summer Monday afternoon.

Highs Monday warmed into the low 80's thanks to a little late day sunshine and gusty southerly winds.  Those south winds will keep temperatures overnight in the low to mid 60's, and warm temperatures on Tuesday back into the low 80's.

A lingering cold front will bring temperatures back down into the upper 60's and low 70's by the middle to end of the week, but will also bring some much needed rainfall.  More on that in a later post!


Saturday, September 30, 2017

A Shot of Summer Heat and Rain for the beginning of October

It's been a beautiful start to the weekend as there almost no clouds in the sky, with temperatures only reaching the upper 60's to low 70's across the Stateline area.  We keep the clear skies this evening, but temperatures will cool quickly and you'll need a light jacket again as we'll hit the upper 50's around 8pm.  Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40's during the overnight tonight, and we could see some patchy fog early tomorrow morning.

The end of the weekend is looking to be wonderful with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70's for Sunday afternoon.  Afterwards, temperatures will start to warm up again going into the work week, as a low pressure system will develop out in the plains and bring some warm air into our area.  Luckily, the summer heat is only expected to last one day, which will be on Tuesday as highs will get into the mid 80's.

That low pressure system will bring a cold front through our area during Tuesday night, bringing some rain during the overnight. After the front moves out we'll see our temperatures dip back down into the 70's for the rest of the week.

We have a few rain chances next week to start out the month of October.  Another low pressure system will move in at the end of next week, and bring us some more rain in addition to the rain on Tuesday.  This is great news for us because we're in desperate need for rain.  We built a huge deficit this month, only seeing half an inch of rain, when we were supposed to see over 3 inches of rain.  The U.S. Drought Monitor has us classified as abnormally dry, with areas of Boone, McHenry, and Walworth counties being classified as Moderately Dry.

Even though we're in quite a deficit, the start of October will point us in the right direction.

Friday, September 29, 2017

Summer Heat Planning a Comeback

What a perfect way to end the work week, partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 60's! We finally got that Fall weather we've been waiting for, and the evening will be just as nice, but those temperatures will cool off quickly so be sure to bring a light jacket with you when going out tonight.  Also, get ready for the coldest night of the Fall season so far as we'll dip into the low 40's during the overnight, and a few locations very well could see the upper 30's.  This quick drop in temperatures may also bring some light fog early tomorrow morning.

The Fall-like weather is looking to stay with us going into the weekend as we'll have sunshine with temperatures in the upper 60's to low 70's Saturday afternoon.  Sunday will be similar, just a few more clouds during the afternoon.  However, enjoy the Fall weather while you can because the summer heat isn't quite done with us yet.  Temperatures will begin to warm up heading into the work week, hitting their warmest by the time we get to Tuesday.

Here's why the heat is going to return.  That high pressure system that's keeping us cool and dry is going to shift southeast, where it'll be in a better position to start pulling some warmer air into our area.  By the time we get to the end of the weekend, a low pressure system is going to develop out in the plains, and will begin tracking northeast while also pulling in some warm air into our area.  Low pressure systems have counter-clockwise winds around them, while high pressure systems have clockwise winds.  You can imagine based on the positions of these two systems in the photo how they'll be able to pull in lots of warm air into our area.  We'll hit the mid 80's on Tuesday and stay that way for a few days.  However, we'll get those Fall like temperatures back to us in no-time by Friday.