Tuesday, December 31, 2013

New Years Eve Snowfall Impact

Winter Weather Advisories in effect for the entire Stateline and for the surrounding major cities of Madison, Milwaukee and Chicago.  So wherever your plans take you this evening, you'll be impacted by this snow storm.  Higher snowfall totals are expected to our south and east including Rochelle and DeKalb which can receive up to 6" by Wednesday morning.  This is the most significant snow event for those areas which have gotten by without receiving much snow thus far this season.

Statistically, New Years Eve is the most dangerous driving day of the year and you couple that with a number of other factors that will make traveling even more serious: The heaviest snows will occur right at midnight so driving is not advised as we go into the overnight hours especially if you plan on drinking at all. Make a plan on who your designated driver will be or where you'll be staying tonight.  Also, the fact that temps are so frigid only getting into the single digits, snow plow salting is less effective so expect the roads to be in very poor conditions.  Here's a video update from Meteorologist Max Tsaparis.- MT
video

Monday, December 30, 2013

Significant NYE Snow To Finish 2013

Do you have plans to go out for New Year's Eve? Then listen up, because this is going to affect you in a big way.

A significant snow maker is expected to roll through the Stateline starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through New Year's Day. The biggest concern here is the timing. With some of the heaviest snow expected to fall the same time as the ball drops to ring in 2014, travel will be highly impacted.


Because of this, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of the Stateline starting Tuesday afternoon and running through New Year's morning.


Snow Forecast for Midnight on New Year's Eve


Taking a look at our Futurecast model, several inches of snow will have already fallen when midnight strikes on New Year's Eve. Right now, it looks like 4-6" of total snow will be possible through New Year's Day.



So what does this mean for you? If you're doing any drinking whatsoever New Year's Eve, get a designated driver. This type of weather is hazardous enough when you're sober. Drinking and driving in these wintery conditions can easily turn deadly, so be careful when ringing in 2014! -BA

Sunday, December 29, 2013

The Arctic Blast is On

Wind Chill Advisories for pale blue counties
After a relatively mild weekend with temps topping off in the low 40s Saturday and then steadily tumbling throughout Sunday, we're in for an Arctic blast going into the last week of 2013. Wind chill advisories have been issued for the entire Stateline and encompasses parts of 7 states in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains.  Expect chills to dip down to -20°F to -30°F by Monday morning! Air temps will struggle to climb to double digits by Monday afternoon, but the continual breeze from the northwest will keep wind chills below zero for most of the day. - MT

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Bye Bye Warmth!

Sunday Conditions
Hopefully you didn't get used to that mild air around the Stateline because temps will be falling fast as we head into Sunday.  Saturday's high of 42° was the warmest we've seen in over 3 weeks since a 52° temperature reading recorded back on December 4th in Rockford.  A cold front digging through the upper Midwest will bring some light snow showers Sunday morning ending around lunchtime and will leave a dusting to a half inch of new snowfall on the ground.

But again, the bigger story is the temperature plunge on the back end of that cold front--we dive into the teens by late afternoon.  By Monday morning, temps will bottom out below zero with a pesky northwest wind causing chills to feel like -20° to -25°! So, we're talking dangerously cold air as we head into next week with frostbite occurring on exposed skin under 30 minutes. - MT

Friday, December 27, 2013

The Snow Effect: Temperatures

While the Stateline is poised for a big warm-up on Saturday, that warm-up could have been even bigger if it weren't for all this pesky snow.

Taking a look at Friday's snow cover map, you'll notice the viewing area is on the southern edge of where snow is still on the ground.





When you translate this over to temperatures, you'll notice a big cooldown in areas with that snow cover.






We'll have the same problem on Saturday. At the moment, highs to start the weekend will be right around 40°. If we had no snow cover on the ground, highs would more than likely be in the 50s. Either way, enjoy this warm-up, because the frigid cold returns on Sunday and sticks around for most of next week. -BA


Arctic Blast Next Week for New Years Eve

Temperature Drop from Saturday Afternoon to Monday night
The warm front over Northern Illinois this morning not only brought fog, but mild temperatures! Winds out of the southwest are bringing in that warmer, drier air mass for our area.  Above freezing temperatures are a welcome change of pace for the Stateline.  We'll be in the mid 30's Friday afternoon and close to 40° on Saturday.  Enjoy it while it lasts though because we are not through with the Arctic blasts.

Sunday we are expecting light snow showers for the afternoon as a strong cold front moves in bringing those frigid temperatures and dropping temperatures almost 40° from Saturday. That means New Year's Eve will fall back into the single digits for the ball drop. - First Warn Weather Intern Stephanie Gizzi


Thursday, December 26, 2013

Weekend Warm Up

High Temps since early December at Rockford Airport
After weeks and weeks of reporting Arctic high pressure systems slamming the Stateline, I am happy to report that we are finally seeing some milder days ahead. Friday temps will hover around the freezing mark but on Saturday, we'll soar all the way to 40°. This is the warmest temperature we've seen since reaching 52° at Rockford International Airport back on December 4th. But the warmth doesn't stick around long: by early next week, we'll drop below zero through New Year's Day. - MT

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

A Unique White Christmas

While a White Christmas isn't uncommon for the Stateline, getting snow on Christmas is a much different story.

The forecast is calling for 1-3" of snow between Christmas Eve night and Christmas morning. If this holds, it will be the first Christmas for Rockford where we get at least an inch of snow in more than 50 years!


Of course, no record is safe from controversy. In 1996, Rockford received 0.10" of precipitation. Since the high that day was only 5°, there's a good bet that was snow, but since no one took a snowfall measurement, it doesn't count. Enjoy your White Christmas, everyone! -BA

Tracking Santa and Some Snow

Snow is moving into the area tonight, so as we track Santa's travels around the world, the big question is will it affect his stop in the Stateline. Of course not! This is Santa we're talking about.

Snow will begin on Christmas Eve (around 7:00 or 8:00pm) and be at its heaviest during the overnight. Accumulating snow should start wrapping up by Christmas morning, with 1-3" possible for the viewing area.


As for Santa, he's delivering presents in Europe as of this update, but you can track him online at http://www.noradsanta.org/. It shows Santa's travels in real time and gives updates like the one found below. Merry Christmas! -BA


Monday, December 23, 2013

A little Christmas snow



After this past weekend's snow there was no question that we would experience a white Christmas, but the fact that the snowflakes will be flying on Christmas morning could make it that more special for some people.  A quick moving storm system will bring light, accumulating snowfall to Wisconsin and Northern Illinois late Tuesday night through mid Wednesday.  The snowfall won't be much and shouldn't affect travel plans you may have, but expect 1" to 2" of snow by Wednesday afternoon.

Cold wind chills Monday night


Clearing skies tonight will allow the temperatures to drop below zero by Tuesday morning.  The cold air mass over a fresh snow pack means that even with a little breeze, wind chills could drop as low as -20° in some locations!  In anticipation of the chill, a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for our western counties: Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside through Noon Tuesday.

Wind chills will remain below zero through Tuesday morning and only warm slightly above 0° during the afternoon.  Another dip in temperatures is expected Thursday and Friday.

Snowfall fun Sunday

Sophie loves the snow
Annette Wright

Tracy Masse


Marcy K. Hutmacher
Marcy K. Hutmacher
Nicole Burgess Meraz
Nicole Haas
Danny Cornett
Christine Diebold
Tracy Smith
Traci Davis
Mason shoveling snow
Tony Honchar
Jayden shoveling snow in Warren, IL
Wendy
Brianna & Ethan
Arlene Torres

Nettie Pell

Sharon Holst
Ted
Roscoe, IL
Ted
Roscoe, IL
Cathy
Sycamore, IL
Cathy
Sycamore, IL
Cathy
Sycamore, IL
Ted
Roscoe, IL
Ted
Roscoe, IL
Ted
Roscoe, IL


Patty Hanson
Memory Lane Crafting Retreat
Orangeville, IL

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Snowstorm recap and a look back at how we did

Forecast
Actual Snow Totals
Last week, the First Warn Weather team anticipated the largest snowfall of the season to impact the Stateline Sunday morning.  I noticed that many viewers on social media were upset that all the local meteorologists had slightly different snowfall amounts forecasted.  Most local TV station weathercasters around the Stateline have accredited meteorology degrees from different schools around the country. With those different backgrounds, each individual meteorologist has and will continue to have differing opinions when looking at the vast amount of computer model forecasts and deciding which ones are most believable.  They will also use prior forecasting knowledge and experience to give what they believe to be the most accurate and dependable forecast.

I'd like to share with you how my specific forecast panned out. The two images above compare what I forecasted Saturday afternoon for Saturday night and Sunday morning's snow storm versus actual snow totals.

The placement of the snow was fairly accurate: far southeastern counties in Northern Illinois received minimal snowfall.  Northwestern counties, including much of southern Wisconsin, saw the most snow.  The amounts were also fairly accurate though I overestimated higher end amounts for our extreme northwestern counties.  As I go into future forecasting situations I will now have a better understanding of how different computer models did or did not handle this snow event on a large and small scale along with my own personal biases of what I perceived would happen.

Here's a look at snow totals city-by-city. - MT & First Warn Weather Intern Stephanie Gizzi

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Sunday morning snow update and snowfall reports



9:42am Update: The snows have ended except in extreme northern Rock and Walworth Counties in Wisconsin.  As we head into the afternoon, we may see spotty light showers, but the heaviest snow has ended for the most part. Snowfall totals range anywhere from 4 to 7 inches around the Stateline.  The main concern will continue to be road conditions as we head into the afternoon and evening so we'll keep a High Weatherisk through then.
 

 
(9:45:31 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 NNW Thomson [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.3 INCH at 09:40 AM CST -- storm total.
 
(9:44:11 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Sterling [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 09:21 AM CST -- total. via espotter.

(9:43:56 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 4 N Lake Geneva [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M6.2 INCH at 09:35 AM CST -- storm total

(9:40:45 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: WSW Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 09:30 AM CST -- snowing very lightly.  

9:33am: 4.5" in Capron, IL (Boone Co.)

(9:32:25 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Mchenry [Mchenry Co, IL] emergency mngr reports SNOW of M1.5 INCH at 08:55 AM CST 

(9:32:26 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 3 SW Poplar Grove [Boone Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M6.7 INCH at 09:02 AM CST -- relayed via wtvo


(9:35:44 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Erie [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.4 INCH at 09:31 AM CST -- total. via espotter.

(9:27:40 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Milton [Rock Co, WI] nws employee reports HEAVY SNOW of M6.0 INCH at 09:17 AM CST --  

(8:56:55 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 08:53 AM CST

(8:52:32 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Marengo [Mchenry Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M3.8 INCH at 08:51 AM CST -- relayed via wtvo

(8:50:31 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 6 SSE Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 08:30 AM CST -- storm total. currently not snowing.

(8:51:11 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Kingston [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 08:49 AM CST

(8:38:24 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 4 SSE Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 08:30 AM CST -- still snowing lightly.

(8:33:48 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 N Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 08:00 AM CST -- still snowing.

(8:29:55 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 08:23 AM CST -- total.

(8:29:55 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 6 WSW Schapville [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M6.2 INCH at 08:26 AM CST -- still snowing lightly.

(8:16:54 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: N Capron [Boone Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 08:00 AM CST -- storm total

(8:16:54 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: NE Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M6.0 INCH at 08:15 AM CST --


(8:07:17 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Roscoe [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M4.6 INCH at 07:59 AM CST -- relayed via wtvo

(7:56:33 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 E Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of U5.0 INCH at 07:54 AM CST

(7:56:33 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rochelle [Ogle Co, IL] public reports SNOW of U2.5 INCH at 07:52 AM CST -- relayed via wtvo

(7:56:33 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Loves Park [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of U6.0 INCH at 07:51 AM CST

(7:38:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Poplar Grove [Boone Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 07:36 AM CST

(7:38:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of E4.7 INCH at 07:35 AM CST

(7:38:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Dixon [Lee Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M2.8 INCH at 07:32 AM CST -- relayed via wtvo

(7:38:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 3 W Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M5.2 INCH at 07:31 AM CST

(7:38:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockton [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of U4.0 INCH at 06:30 AM CST

(7:45:02 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 07:35 AM CST -- still snowing. snow depth 7 inches.

(7:45:01 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M5.4 INCH at 07:30 AM CST -- 24hr total sor far. snow depth is 6 inches.

(7:43:44 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Milton [Rock Co, WI] nws employee reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 07:43 AM CST -- heavy snow falling

(7:33:47 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Afton [Rock Co, WI] co-op observer reports SNOW of M4.1 INCH at 07:31 AM CST -- still snowing

(7:16:00 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 NE Fulton [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 07:15 AM CST -- still snowing at time of report

(6:58:17 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 2 NE Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.8 INCH at 06:53 AM CST

(6:58:17 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 W Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 06:30 AM CST -- report from wtvo

(6:53:26 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Elizabeth [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M3.1 INCH at 06:35 AM CST -- 24hr total so far. water equiv is 0.24 and snow depth is 5 inches.



(6:45:03 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 WNW Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 06:43 AM CST -- still snowing heavily at time of report.


6:35 am Update: The moderate to heavy snow continues to fall across the Stateline early this Sunday morning.  Visibility remains at one mile or less and will continue to remain low until the snow begins to end which will be mid-morning.  Winter Storm Warnings continue through 10am for Winnebago, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, Boone and McHenry counties and until 6pm for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, Whiteside, Green, Rock and Walworth counties.




2:05am Update:  A few pockets of heavier snow are present around Winnebago southwest towards Forreston and Mt. Morris as well as near Creston and Malta.  Snow will continue into the overnight through mid-morning Sunday.



Just before 11:30pm, heavy snow approaches the Mississippi River and our western counties.
Winter storm warnings are in effect til 10am Sunday morning in anticipation for widespread heavy, wet snow.  Depending where you're at in the Stateline you can get anywhere from 4-10" of snow.
Many churches have already cancelled services due to the timing of the heaviest snow.  For a full listing to see if your church is closing its doors, head over to http://www.mystateline.com.

Lastly, If you're in Rockford, don't forget to park on the correct side of the street. Stay safe! - MT
Odd/Even Parking in Effect