Winter-Like Chill Arrives, Sticks Around Into the Beginning of April

Mild March:

Yesterday's high temperatures of 65° at KRFD marked the 21s above-average day during the month of March. However, mild temperatures will be a thing of the past thanks to yesterday's cold frontal passage. This has set the stage for old man winter to make a comeback, crashing temperatures right before the Easter holiday weekend. 

Chilly Wednesday:

I hope you weren't too quick to your winter jacket away. That, along with a pair of gloves, will be a necessity before stepping out this morning as this winter-like air-mass settles in. Temperatures to start are sitting in the upper 20s, a good 10° to 20° cooler compared to 24 hours ago. If that doesn't bring a chill to your spine, shall I mention wind chills? Thanks to a lingering and stubborn west-northwesterly breeze, wind chills for a few are in the teens. Yikes. You'll definitely need to bundle up before heading out. That will likely be the case for the rest of the work week. However, Wednesday does feature sunshine, especially early on. Guidance continues to show a few more clouds, along the possibility for the stray shower, streaming in during the afternoon. High temperatures to round out the month of March only topping out in the low 40s. Today is going to be one of those day where a few spots may not make it out of the upper 30s.

Winter-Like Chill: 

As we've mentioned, winter's stay here in the Stateline will be very brief as warmer temperatures slide in for Easter weekend. However, if the warm weather has prompted you to begin planting your garden, you'll want to make sure those plants are covered before heading to bed. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 20s both Thursday and Friday morning which could bring some harm to those plants. As an area of high pressure shifts to our southeast, this will help push this winter-like air-mass out, allowing warmer temperatures to filter in by Easter weekend. Like we said, this cooldown is only brief!

Easter Sunday:

As today's trough makes it way out, a ridge of high pressure takes control of the central U.S. This will bring quiet, sunny, yet somewhat breezy weather for when the Easter bunny arrives. Easter begins on a mild note with temperatures in the upper 40s, soaring into the low 70s by the afternoon. It's been quite some time since the Stateline has seen highs in the 70s. You would have to go all the way back to November 10th to find the last one.

Late-Winter Chill Slides in Behind Today's Cold Front

Quick To Warm:

Before we jump into the forecast, here's a fun fact about yesterday's warmth. Thanks to yesterday's strong southerly winds, the Chicago-Rockford International Airport observed a 40° jump from the morning low to the afternoon high. According to the National Weather Service in Chicago, Rockford on average sees such a jump about twice a year. A lingering southerly breeze Tuesday morning has brought a much warmer start for those heading out the door, with most spots in the upper 40s. While today ends up on the mild side of the spectrum, a strong but moisture starved cold front will send temperatures tumbling into the middle of the work week. 

Midweek Chill: 

A glimpse at hi-res models early Tuesday morning showed our cold front, which is currently sitting over southeast MN and central IA, sliding through early this afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a southerly to southwesterly breeze should push us close to the 60° mark before temperatures tumble into tonight. Aside from a few more clouds, and a very slim chance for a stray sprinkle or two, this cold front should swing through dry as it really doesn't have much to work with. A better possibility for light showers resides to our south and east closer to I-80 and I-55. Behind this cold frontal passage, a MUCH cooler airmass sitting over the Hudson Bay in Canada will filter into the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. This will help remind us here at home that even though we've fully jumped into spring, winter isn't done just yet.

Brief Cool-Down

Winds are expected to shift to the northwest overnight, remaining breezy into the middle of the work week. This will allow this cooler air-mass to spill into the Stateline by Wednesday morning, dropping temperatures below freezing. If you've already done some work on your garden, make sure that they are protected before going to bed as frost will be likely. High pressure looks to take over the central plains, keeping our atmosphere dry into the second half of the work week. While we have the sunshine, it won't really do much to boost our temperatures. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday only climb into the low 40s, a good 10° to 15° below our average highs going into April. Thankfully, this cooldown is BRIEF. 

Warm, Windy Monday Precedes Big Midweek Cooldown

Mild and breezy conditions will ring in the new workweek before much cooler weather moves into the Stateline.

After a rather cool Sunday closed out the weekend, temperatures will feel much more spring-like for Monday. Late Sunday night, winds backed from northwesterly to southerly as they diverge from a system of high pressure that moved to our southeast. An approaching low pressure system to the northwest will tighten up the pressure gradient through the day driving up wind speeds and advecting lots of warm air into the area. The Stateline is seeing nothing more than a light breeze as of early Monday morning though wind speeds are expected to top 25 mph by the afternoon with gusts upwards of 45 mph. These strong, but warm, southerly winds will help temperatures to reach the lower, potentially middle, 60’s by the afternoon.

The warm weather and strong winds will be working with some very dry conditions to bring an elevated fire risk to the Stateline. Dewpoint temperatures early Monday morning sit in the middle to upper 20’s. They are expected to reach the lower 30’s by the afternoon but with temperatures forecast to reach the 60’s, relative humidity will be stuck in the 30-40% range making conditions ideal for fires to spread quickly. The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for Boone, Carroll, Jo Daviess, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, Whiteside and Winnebago Counties. This goes into the effect early Monday afternoon and is set to expire Monday evening. All of the formerly mentioned counties in addition to Green and Rock Counties in Wisconsin are under a wind advisory beginning early Monday afternoon.

Strong winds are expected to last through the overnight and into Tuesday with gusts upwards of 30 mph through the day. A strong cold front will move over the Stateline early Tuesday causing winds to veer from southwesterly to northwesterly. This will result in an early afternoon high temperature in the middle to upper 50’s as cold air will begin flowing in around the noon hour. The moisture-starved frontal boundary will only bring a slight chance for a few light showers Tuesday afternoon but the frigid air mass to follow will keep highs in the lower 40’s for Wednesday. High pressure approaching from the west will keep the cold air flowing into Thursday resulting in another day with highs down in the lower to middle 40’s. Some good news for the middle of the week though: the system of high pressure moving in will advect lots of dry air into the area resulting in a good deal of sunshine, especially on Thursday.