One-Two Punch for Friday, Drying out over Halloween Weekend

Showery, Windy Friday:

For the second time this week, a very dynamic and slow-moving storm system has brought an elongated stretch of rainy weather to the region. Although the showers pushing through this morning are more scattered in nature, you'll want to have the rain gear on hand when your ready to step out the door. Not only that, but the way this storm system has strengthened while pushing eastward will help ramp up our winds, which could make for traveling difficult.

From the moment the sun rises to the moment the sun sets, thick clouds will dominate our skies. Showers remain scattered for the morning hours, with a shower or two lingering into the early evening. But by the time we're jumping into the afternoon, gusty winds will be more of a concern. 

Winds blowing from the north-northeast will occasionally gust up to 35 mph at times. Something to keep in mind if you're traveling, or if you're planning to attend any playoff high school games this evening. Highs because of the clouds, the rain, and the gusty winds will end up similar to yesterday, in the low to mid 50s. Rain chances overall should come to an end this evening, leaving us with thick cloud cover for the overnight hours. 

Rain & Snow-Free Halloween:

Despite clouds lingering into Saturday morning, dry air sweeping in behind this storm system will help bring mixed sunshine by the afternoon. While winds won't nearly be as strong, we still could see gusts approach 20 mph. 

Highs will fall on either side of the 60-degree mark Saturday afternoon, cooling down by a few degrees for Halloween itself thanks to a sneaky cold front. As mentioned previously, this cold front as it trucks through the Stateline early Sunday has no moisture to work with. So rain chances will be slim to none. But it will help turn our winds to the northwest by Sunday afternoon, allowing a much cooler air-mass to filter in for early next week.

Rain and wind continue Friday; Rain clears for the weekend

 

The steady rainfall from Thursday afternoon and early evening will become a little more scattered overnight and Friday morning as temperatures hold steady in the low 50s.  Low pressure moving across southeast Missouri will remain well south of the Stateline, but continue to bring in moisture from the Gulf.  There is a little dry air moving across central and southern Illinois, but that will remain south of the Stateline.

As the low moves towards western Kentucky and

Tennessee Friday morning, the pressure gradient around the low will strengthen.  In return, this will cause north/northeast winds to increase, gusting as high as 35 mph at times throughout the day Friday.  The strong winds, combined with the periodic rain showers, will make travel difficult, as well as blow around any loose objects that may be outside.  The rain showers will move a little further east throughout the day as low pressure moves towards the East Coast.  Wind gusts will hold around 30-35 mph through the evening, falling to around 20 mph Saturday morning.

The clouds will be slow to clear Friday night and Saturday morning, leaving us with a mostly cloudy start to the weekend.  Drier air with the arrival of high pressure will turn skies partly cloudy by the afternoon, warming temperatures into the upper 50s. 

A cold front will move through Sunday morning shifting winds around to the northwest for most of the day.  The front will come through dry, but winds will stay breezy.  High temperatures Sunday will be a touch cooler, rising only to the mid 50s for the afternoon.  Any festivities going on this weekend shouldn't have any problems with the weather.  A jacket may be needed, though, for those venturing out Sunday for trick-or-treating. 

Showers Likely Today, Cooling Down Big-Time into November

Rain Gear Needed:

Although our Thursday starts off mainly dry, it'll be important to have the rain gear on hand once you're ready to step out the door. A dynamic storm system gliding across the central plains will be the main culprit behind today's rain chances, beginning with a few isolated morning showers. As we inch past mid-morning, guidance shows showers becoming a bit more numerous and widespread. 

Rainy Stretch:

Rain will continue to fall in a widespread manner throughout the afternoon and into the evening commute. There is just enough moisture for a few heavier downpours to occur during this time, but much of what we see throughout the day will be light and steady. With instability or the amount of energy in the atmosphere being non-existent, the potential for thunderstorms is unlikely. In the latest outlook by the Storm Prediction Center, a "general" thunderstorm risk has been placed for areas closer to the surface low down in southern Illinois.

Once you're ready to head to bed this evening, place the rain gear somewhere where it'll be easily accessible for tomorrow morning as rain chances continue. As this dynamic system slowly pushes away from the region, showers will become less frequent by mid-day Friday, with conditions fully drying out by Friday evening. When this event is all said and done, guidance on average showed rainfall totals ranging between .5" to 1". Cloudy skies may linger into Friday night, but the exit of this storm system will eventually lead to the return of sunshine for Halloween weekend.

Sneaky Cold Front:

Despite Saturday and Sunday remaining dry, a sneaky cold front is expected to pass on through during the afternoon Sunday. While this cold front will have little to no moisture to work with, it will help filter in a much cooler air-mass that cools own temperatures down as we jump into November. 

The biggest uncertainty with this upcoming round of cold air is the strength of the air-mass itself. Models differ on just how cold the air-mass is as it filters into the Stateline, but a big drop in our daily highs and lows is a good bet. Highs look to drop from the upper 50s on Halloween down to the mid to upper 40s for the first half of next week. And as far as morning lows are concerned, you likely want to dust off that heavy jacket. At times, temperatures may drop into the upper 20s, so be prepared for a few cold nights!

Halloween weekend remains dry, but a cooler air mass settles in for the start of November

 

Low pressure passing well south of the Stateline Thursday and Friday will bring another round of rain to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The rain won't be quite as heavy as this past Sunday and Monday, but is expected to be widespread through Friday afternoon.  Rainfall totals will settle right around half an inch, with a few locations possibly coming close to three quarters of an inch.

The steadier rain will come to an end Friday afternoon but rain showers will linger through Friday evening.  Winds are also expected to increase through Friday, gusting from the northeast around 35 mph.  The winds won't be quite as gusty Friday evening, but it will be rather damp and blustery.  The cloud cover is expected to remain through the first half of the day Saturday before clearing out Saturday afternoon.  Highs Saturday warm close to 60 degrees.  Halloween will be a little breezy with a northwest wind, but we stay dry.  High temperatures will reach the mid 50s during the afternoon.

A cold front is forecast to move through Sunday morning with colder air settling in Sunday night Monday.  Temperatures Sunday night will drop near freezing.  The strength of the cold air next week is a little hard to determine as models differ still on just how cold temperatures will fall, but highs in the 40s are a good bet, which would be close to 10 degrees below normal for the beginning of November. 

The cold front on Sunday will come through dry and will settle just to our south Monday and Tuesday.  Weaker low pressure systems moving along the front will bring rain to areas south of the region Monday afternoon and evening.  However, depending on the depth of the cold and dry air behind the front, it's possible we end up on the far northern edge of precipitation - most likely rain at this point - Monday into Monday night.  However, with overnight lows falling to, or below, freezing it is possible that a few snowflakes could mix in.  That chance, at this point in time, looks to be low.  Another system moving in Wednesday could also bring us a few showers for the afternoon.  High temperatures look to remain below average through the first week of November, warming close to average (right around 50 degrees leading into the second week of the November.

Dry Wednesday, Showers Increase in Coverage into Thursday Afternoon

Another Chilly Morning:

Tuesday to me was a perfect 10 out of 10. We were treated to plenty of beautiful sunshine, with afternoon highs landing in the mid to upper 50s. With an area of high pressure sitting overhead, skies we're clear enough overnight to allow lows to fall into the 30s early Wednesday morning. With that being said, grab your jacket/sweatshirt and brew up a hot cup of coffee before stepping out this morning. 

Rain Chances Hold Off:

In a similar fashion to Tuesday, this morning's brisk start will give way to a warm, dry, and pleasant afternoon. Although sunshine is in the forecast, it won't be as abundant as yesterday. As our next storm system slowly approaches, the sunshine we see this morning will give way to a mostly cloudy sky by the time the sun goes down. Thankfully however, any chance for rain will remain west of the region during this time, leaving us dry. In fact, guidance doesn't show showers moving in until well after midnight tonight into the opening stages of Thursday. 

Showery Thursday:

Although rain chances start off isolated and light, I'd still plan on having the rain gear on hand once you're ready to step out the door. Guidance does show more widespread and heavier rain showers sliding in during the afternoon and evening. 

Showers are expected to last well into Thursday night and even extend into the opening stages of our Friday. While there may be a few showers that linger into Friday afternoon, conditions should dry out for any football games slated for Friday evening. From when the rain start to when the rain ends, most of us have the potential to pick up .25" to as much as .75" of rain. With this scenario having a high chance to verify, this would push our monthly rainfall total above the 5" mark. 

Halloween Forecast:

While Thursday's storm system will make a slow exit from the Stateline, sunshine is expected to return for Halloween weekend. Temperatures will be warmest on Saturday with highs in the low 60s, dropping into the upper 50s by Halloween. Due to a very weak and dry cold front passing through Sunday afternoon, temperatures are expected to make a quick drop by the time your kids dress up and go trick-or-treating. Temps will end up on either side of the 50-degree mark, with a breeze blowing from the northwest. 

Clouds increase Wednesday as rain moves in Thursday

 

Tuesday was an absolutely beautiful Fall afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid and upper 50s, officially reaching 59 degrees in Rockford; a typical Fall afternoon.  Following a few clouds early in the day, skies have remained clear for much of Tuesday night which will allow temperatures to fall back into the 30s overnight.  Patchy frost will be possible early Wednesday.

As high pressure slides further east Wednesday, cloud cover will quickly advance in from the west.  These clouds are associated with an area of low pressure, currently moving into the southern Plains and bringing a line of severe thunderstorms extending from Texas into south-central Nebraska.  Severe weather remains over the Plains Tuesday evening and then will shift across the southern states Wednesday.  As moisture slowly begins to work in from the west, cloud cover will continue to increase locally as winds remain from the south and southeast bringing temperatures into the upper 50s, to near 60 degrees, during the afternoon.

Low pressure will travel from eastern Colorado Tuesday night to far southern Illinois Thursday night.  Moisture wrapping up and around the low into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will allow an expansion of showers to develop, increasing in coverage Thursday afternoon and evening.  While a few lighter showers may be possible Thursday morning, it does look like that time should be dry.

Rainfall amounts won't be quite as much as what we received Sunday and Monday, adding up to between a quarter of an inch to half an inch.  There may be a few locations that receive slightly higher amounts but those look to be for areas closer to Lake Michigan, and caused more by lake effect.

Northeast winds will increase as well, gusting 30-35mph Thursday night into Friday morning.  The stronger wind gusts will continue for the first half of the day.  Rain showers may also linger through Friday afternoon but it looks like we should be drying out, but remaining cloudy, Friday night.  High pressure and a cold front arrive for the weekend which will help keep us dry, but we may see a few more clouds from time to time.

High Pressure Brings Short-Lived Break From This Rainy Weather Pattern

Month vs. Month:

Remember when Rockford posted it's 9th driest September on record? Well, that is now a thing of the past, considering the fact that our total monthly rainfall for October sits at a staggering 4.86". This currently ranks 7th for wettest Octobers on record. While it's safe to say that your rain gear can take a break and remain at home today, it'll be wise to dress warmly before you head out.

Quiet, Less Windy Tuesday:

Radiational cooling was in full-effect Monday night, thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the west. This has resulted in a much cooler start to our day, with most of us landing in the mid to upper 30s. For those that end up closer to the freezing mark of 32°, you may walk out to the sight of patchy frost. Thankfully, this brisk and fall-like start doesn't spell the forecast for the rest of our Tuesday. 

Under plenty of sunshine, temperatures are expected to climb to seasonable levels, in the mid to upper 50s. With high pressure continuing to settle in, rain chances stay away for not only today but for much of Wednesday. Guidance does show we glide into the overnight hours tonight under a mostly clear sky, with a few more clouds moving in by tomorrow morning. This is all in response to our next storm system that will likely bring rain chances come Thursday. 

Rainy Thursday:

While clouds will continue to thicken up on Wednesday, any chance for showers does remain west of the region. It's not until late Wednesday night into Thursday morning that models do show an increase in moisture, resulting in a chance for scattered showers at first. Showers look to become more widespread as we prepare to jump into Thursday afternoon, with chances continuing into the early stages of Friday. As this area of low pressure begins to drift away from the Stateline, drier conditions are likely to ensue just in time for Friday night’s high school football match-ups.

Steady rain continues Sunday evening; Rain and wind for Monday morning

 

A strengthening low pressure system moving across the Iowa/Missouri border will continue to move towards the region Sunday evening.  A steady rain has been falling, with a few heavier downpours, for much of the afternoon and evening.  There have been, and will continue to be, a few thunderstorms across southern portions of the region - especially for southern Lee and DeKalb counties. 

Blustery northeast winds have held temperatures in

the 40s for much of the afternoon, with little in the way of a drop expected Sunday night, or rise for Monday afternoon.  The rain will continue throughout the evening before turning light, most likely around Midnight, as the center of the low crosses south of the area.  Wrap around showers are then expected into Monday morning before drying out a bit for Monday afternoon and evening.

Winds have been gusty at times throughout much

of the day, but are expected to increase as the low moves closer.  Already there have been a few gusts reaching close to 40 mph, with a few isolated locations possibly coming close to 45 mph before Midnight.  Northeast winds will remain strong into Monday morning, gusting at times to 35 mph.  The combination of the strong wind and heavy rain will not only cause ponding water on the roadways through the night and into Monday, but also cause leaves to fall off the trees and on to the roads, sidewalks, gutters and storm drains.  

This will cause some slicks spots on the roads, as well as potentially cause some minor flooding issues along the sides of the roads and ditches where the storm drains are clogged.  Be careful if out Sunday night and early Monday morning as the lack of light will make it hard to see, especially if under a heavier downpour.  And remember to give yourself extra distance when driving between you and the car in front of you as it takes a longer distance to stop on wet or leaf covered roads. 

High chance for significant rainfall early next week

 Over the next few days, we will see much more cool, fall-like conditions. This is a drastic change from last week, when our temperatures were nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. With that comes wetter conditions as well, and that will be in evident Sunday going into Monday. With a low pressure system passing to our South and bringing a lot of moisture with it, it is very possible we could see upwards to an inch of rain or more.

The Weather Prediction Center put out this QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) map to show where the likely areas of high rainfall will be. It looks that most of the rain will stay to our south, but I think it is likely we will see close to an inch of rain, if not more. Let's time out this rainfall.

By late Sunday morning we should see the beginning of the rain showers moving into Northern Illinois from the South.

Heavier showers will be present in the afternoon as well, and coverage will remain high throughout the entire day.

Through the night Sunday and into early morning, persistent showers will still be present. I think the majority of these rain showers will be further North than this model shows, so there will be few breaks in the rain.

 

Sometime in the early afternoon on Monday is when the rain showers are expected to stop, but not before dumping an inch or more of rain on us.

Don't forget the umbrella through the day on Sunday and Monday!

Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening

It was another sun-filled afternoon Tuesday as temperatures once again reached the low 70s, officially warming to 73 degrees in Rockford, twelve degrees above average.  Skies remain clear for most of Tuesday evening, but we should begin to see a few more clouds filter in through the night.  This will help keep temperatures on either side of 50 degrees by Wednesday morning. 

A strengthening low pressure system developing over eastern Colorado Tuesday evening will begin moving east, pulling into northwest Iowa by Wednesday morning.  Southerly winds ahead of the low will bring temperatures into the low 70s for the afternoon.  A slight increase in moisture ahead of the low, and ahead of the cold front, will allow a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to developing during the afternoon and evening.  However, with southwest winds for much of the day it's likely we develop a cap, or lid, on our atmosphere by the afternoon and early evening.  This could help prevent thunderstorm development as the cold front nears.  A rather strong upper level jet streak is forecast to round the southern edge of the low/trough, moving over northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  This will help increase the shear throughout the atmosphere (increasing winds with height), but instability remains somewhat limited.  

If, however, there is enough energy to break through the cap during the late afternoon and evening it's possible that a strong thunderstorm or two could form, with the greatest risk being wind and hail.  By Wednesday evening the cold front will have passed and this should help us remain mostly dry through Wednesday night.  Moisture wrapping back in around the low Thursday morning could bring us an isolated shower or two, with skies remaining mostly cloudy through Thursday afternoon and evening.

Chill settles in late week following a few warmer days

 

After a somewhat frosty start Monday morning, full sunshine warmed temperatures into the low 70s during the afternoon.  The clear sky will continue once again Monday evening with temperatures dipping into the mid 40s, climbing back into the low 70s Tuesday afternoon.  Average high this time of year should be in the low 60s.  Following a few warmer than normal days temperatures will drop quite a bit by the end of the week, possibly lasting through the weekend and early next week.  In between, the chance for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. 

High pressure from Monday will continue sliding to the east Tuesday, shifting winds around to the southwest.  Winds will get a bit breezy during the afternoon, gusting close to 25 mph at times throughout the day.  While we'll see plenty of sunshine for the day Tuesday, you'll notice a few more cirrus clouds moving through the sky during the afternoon and evening.  Those clouds are forming out ahead of an area of low pressure that will strengthen as it moves across the middle of the country.

Surface high pressure anchored over the Southeast will work to block a lot of the Gulf moisture from returning to the north.  As a result, this will limit our overall rain chance Wednesday and Thursday to more scattered shower/thunderstorm activity, versus anything too widespread.  The low will move across the Plains Tuesday before entering into the Midwest Wednesday, crossing over southern Wisconsin by Thursday morning.  Southerly winds ahead of the low will keep temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s for the afternoon, but a line of showers/isolated thunderstorms will move through for the afternoon and early evening with the arrival of a cold front.  Severe weather isn't expected. 

Temperatures won't drop right away following the passage of the front, but will cool Thursday morning as colder air slides in from the north.  Highs will drop from the low 70s on Wednesday, down into the 50s Thursday and then low to mid 50s by Friday.  Overnight lows will also take a bit of a dip, dropping back into the 30s Thursday night. 

Officially the low temperature for Rockford hasn't reached 32 degrees yet this season, but we could come close again Friday night/Saturday morning.  Outlying areas could end up experiencing low temperatures in the low 30s, with a little more widespread frost possibly by Saturday morning.

Temperatures fall into the 30s Sunday morning; More cool weather on the way late in the week

 

For the first time since the start of Fall the overnight low temperature fell into the 30s for Rockford, officially dropping to 35 degrees Sunday morning.  Even though it was closer to our normal low temperature for mid-October (low 40s) it felt a lot cooler than what we've been used to these last several weeks. 

As our average high and low temperatures typically begin cooling during the months of September and October, our actual highs and lows have been doing the opposite.  September was a warm month, averaging almost five degrees above the monthly average, and the first two weeks of October were the warmest first two weeks of October - ever - for Rockford!  Low temperatures for the first half of October have been exceptionally warm, averaging the mid 50s to mid 60s.  It's only been within the last few days that we've felt the overnight low temperature drop to where it should be this time of the month. 

The warmer nights/mornings have also helped with the high temperatures during the afternoon, keeping them above average.  Now while the warmer days and nights are a cause for celebration for some, it's important to look at the potential impacts that these warmer days have on the things around us.  The drier and warmer than normal conditions have caused the Fall colors to be delayed across the region, kept humidity levels higher impacting those who may be suffering from asthma or allergies, summer bugs/pests have been around a little longer, etc.  

Our warming climate has also had an impact on when our first Fall freeze occurs.  Since 1970, Rockford's first Fall is now occurring, on average, 15 days later than when it did 50 years ago!  The average first 32 degree temperature for northern Illinois typically occurs within the first week, to week and a half, of the month of October.  As of October 17th, our overnight low temperature has failed to reach 32 degrees; and it looks like the warmer temperatures will continue through at least the upcoming week, if not beyond.  Locally, it is the low temperature that is warming more than the high temperature - overnight lows not cooling as fast, or as low, as what they were over the last 30-40 years.  The Winter season is the faster warming season, impacting areas in the Arctic where sea ice loss has been within record territory, if not passing it, within the last few years.  

Our overnight low temperatures will warm again this week, but then are forecast to drop back into the 30s by the end of the week and start of the weekend following a cold front.  It's possible that some spots could dip near 32 degrees across Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, but widespread freezing temperatures don't look too promising. 

Trading In Friday's Rain Chances for Weekend Sunshine

Mild October:

Even with all the rain opportunities mother nature has thrown at the Stateline, we've managed to stay very warm throughout the month of October. In fact, Rockford's average temperature during the first 14 days comes to 67.3°, which currently sits in 1st place for warmest starts to the month on record. Our daily high temperatures moving forward will be going on a another roller coaster ride. For those that are looking for that fall-like air, you'll be happy to know that the ride kicks off with a hint of fall. 

Few Friday Showers:

Thanks to a mostly clear sky and a chilly light wind out of the north, temperatures early Friday morning are registering in the upper 40s and low 50s. If you're heading off to school or work this morning, you'll likely want to put on something warm. This cooler start to the day will tell the tale for the rest of our Friday, especially with clouds filling back in, small shower chances, and winds remaining out of a cooler direction.

Overall, today's rain chances will be very scattered. With little to no energy in the atmosphere, I think a majority of what we'll see will be in the form of sprinkles or light showers. So, it's safe to say that the potential for severe weather is 100% out of the question. Guidance does show rain chances first arriving during the mid-late morning hours, lasting well into the afternoon. 

As far as accumulations are concerned, totals should remain under .10". If you and your family plan on attending any of the high school football games slated for this evening, the activity should be tapering off by the time of opening kickoff. As today's storm system pulls away from the area, cloud cover may linger into the early hours of tonight. However, cloud cover is expected to quickly decrease, paving the way for a sun-filled weekend.

Sun-Filled Weekend: 

Even though sunshine will dominate our skies on Saturday, a gusty wind out of the northwest will limit our high temperatures to the upper 50s. Winds throughout the afternoon will be capable of gusting up to 25-30 mph. This upcoming cool-down will be brief as we inch closer to the 70-degree mark by the time we're heading into Sunday afternoon. 

As we jump into the early parts of next week, southwest winds stick around, allowing temperatures to climb into the low 70s. Rain chances remain very low as a ridge of high pressure takes control of our atmosphere. It won't be until next Wednesday and Thursday that we'll see our next rain chances move into the forecast.

Decreasing Clouds Thursday, Shower Chances Return Friday

Long Rainy Stretch:

When it rains it pours. Not only is that the title to one of my favorite country songs by Luke Combs, but it's also a great way to describe Wednesday's rainfall. A glance at the almanac shows that Rockford was able to pick up a whopping 0.74" of rain, marking the 13th straight day in which the airport has observed a trace or more. Fortunately, we'll see a break from this long rainy pattern today, with rain chances making a quick return for the end of the work week.

Few Showers Early:

A sharp frontal boundary moving in before the sun peeks over the horizon has pivoted a round of sprinkles and showers to kick off our Thursday. The bigger question with this activity is does any of this make it to the surface. 

Dew points are registering in the mid to upper 40s early Thursday morning, which may be too dry for any water droplets to hit the surface. But I would still have that umbrella with you just to be on the safe side. Any activity that does manage to hit the surface should remain light in nature, and shouldn't bring any disruptions to your morning travels. Guidance does leave a chance into mid, possibly late-morning, with cloudy skies sticking around into the lunch hour.

Late-Day Sunshine:

Once the cold front is well to the southeast of the Stateline, our atmosphere will begin to dry out, allowing clouds to gradual clear throughout the afternoon. With a southwest wind lingering behind the frontal passage, highs will once again be limited to the upper 60s/low 70s. The overnight hours remain dry, but clouds are expected to be on the increase as we inch closer towards sunrise Friday morning. This will be in response to our next storm system which is set to bring one more rain chance before we dry out into the weekend.

Showers Return Friday:

Guidance has come into more agreement on the southerly extent of Friday's storm system's track, taking it through extreme southern Illinois. As this system rides today's cold front, moisture will get pulled northward, allowing for us to see a few showers.  It looks like chances begin shortly after sunrise, lasting through the mid-afternoon hours. Showers look to make a quick exit by the time we're heading into Friday night, marking the beginning of a long dry and sun-filled stretch of weather. Sunshine looks to dominate our skies both Saturday and Sunday, with highs topping out in the 60s.