Much Cooler Friday, Temps Remain Mild into the New Year

Late-December Warmth:

Thursday's spring-like feel made it hard to believe that the Stateline was encountering an impressive Arctic blast almost a week prior. 

In fact, Rockford's high temperature of 61° lands an astonishing 71° warmer than our observed low temperature from last Friday (-10°). It also marks the 38th calendar day in December in which the Rockford Airport observed a high temperature of 60° or higher since 1905. Now, as much as I would love to tell you that our Friday features similar warmth, that simply won't nearly be the case.

Much Cooler Friday:

A pair of cold fronts sliding through overnight will pave the way for a much cooler afternoon, with highs struggling to crack the 40° mark. It will take a bit of time, but dry air filtering in behind last night's frontal passage may result in filtered sunshine during the latter half of the day. We can expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky to stick around into Saturday morning, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s. 

New Year's Weekend:

The best chance for sunshine on New Year's Eve will be during the morning hours. A weak storm system sliding in will help increase our cloud cover into the afternoon, with light shower chances not being too far behind. 

Once we get into the Saturday evening time frame, we'll have to keep an eye on the temperature. For the most part, precipitation with this weak system will fall in the form of rain. However, with temperatures falling into the low 30s Saturday night, a scattered light wintry mix or freezing rain cannot be ruled out. Precipitation chances come to a close rather quickly Sunday, with skies turning partly cloudy for the afternoon. Highs over the weekend aim to climb into the low 40s, with the potential for 50s again early next week as our next storm system approaches.

Spring-like warmth Thursday afternoon

 

Temperatures across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon warmed well above the forecast high, reaching the upper 50s and low 60s. Rockford's high temperature officially reached 61 degrees. It felt more like a Spring day rather than a late December afternoon!

It's quite amazing the change in weather in just over a week. Last Thursday temperatures were falling into the single digits above and below zero, with wind chills well below zero! The cold then continued into the Christmas weekend before a slow climb in temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

The added sunshine and quickly melting snow really helped with the warmth, along with the breezy south wind. Temperatures are expected to remain mild through the rest of the evening, holding steady in the 50s. Cloud cover will be on the increase ahead of a cold front that'll pass after Midnight Thursday. This will bring a small chance for some drizzle and light rain showers during that time.

Winds will turn to the west behind the front with temperatures dropping into the low 30s Friday morning. Highs Friday afternoon are expected to reach the upper 30s to low 40s. We should also see a little more sunshine during the afternoon, with partly cloudy skies Friday night. Temperatures through the weekend will stay in the low to mid 40s.  

Long Cold Streak Snapped, Upward Trend Carries on into 2023

Long Cold Stretch:

Rockford witnessed a VERY impressive streak come to an end on Wednesday. For 306 consecutive hours, so from 4PM on December 15th to 10AM yesterday, the Rockford Airport remained below the freezing mark of 32-degrees. 

The long-lasting nature of this stretch kind of puts the strength of this most recent Arctic blast into better perspective. With that being said, it gives me great pleasure to say that the frigidly cold is now behind us! Thanks to warmer flow settling in, high temperatures won't have an issue remaining above the 32-degree mark in the short-term and even in the long-term. 

50s Return:

Temperatures are once again starting out 10°-20° warmer than the previous morning. This will pave the way for another above-average afternoon as most of our spots should climb into the low 50s.

Unfortunately, there won't be much if any sunshine to accompany today's warmth. A plume of moisture streaming in ahead of our next cold front will result in a more cloud-filled day. Tagging along with today's cloudy forecast is the small chance for patchy drizzle and a light rain shower or two. Guidance bring the cold front in shortly after the midnight hour, resulting in a steeper temperature drop into Friday morning. 

Remaining Warm:

Friday features the same in terms of cloud cover and light rain/drizzle potential. However, we can expect a much cooler afternoon as temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 30s. 

I'm not complaining, considering we were stuck below 0 the previous Friday, with wind chill values down near 20° to -30°. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day feature a partly to mostly cloudy sky, with temperatures peaking in the low 50s. Forecast models then show a ridge of high pressure settling in late Sunday into early Monday, allowing the upward trend in temperatures to continue.

Clouds increase Thursday as temperatures warm back near 50 degrees

From one extreme to another temperatures have been on quite the rollercoaster ride over the last week. Highs Wednesday afternoon warmed into the upper 30s and low 40s, reaching 42 degrees in Rockford. This is the first time the high temperature - area wide - has been above freezing since mid-December. Temperatures Wednesday were 20-25 degrees warmer than they were Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The last seven-day stretch - from December 21st to the 27th - the average high temperature was only 7.9 degrees! Within the month of December, the only years to experience a colder 7 day stretch dating back since 1990 were 2000, 2016 and 2017.

Gusty south winds will keep temperatures in the 30s through the evening, rising back into the 40s for the start of Thursday. Cloud cover is already on the increase and will continue to thicken up through the night as moisture increases from the south.

Added moisture from the melting snow will also contribute to the additional cloud cover and could leave us with a little fog/haze through afternoon Thursday. Despite that temperatures do look to warm quite a bit, possibly into the low 50s during the afternoon! The one limiting factor would be the thickness of the cloud cover; however, dew point temperatures are also expected to rise which will help the air temperature to rise as well. 

Light drizzle can't be ruled out, especially late in the day. This would be ahead of a cold front that'll sweep through from west to east late Thursday night and Friday. The air mass behind this front will have origins from the Pacific Northwest, rather than from the Arctic, so temperatures through the New Year weekend won't drop nearly as much as what they did Christmas weekend. The above average trend appears to take us into the new year, with a chance for a steady - and possibly heavy - rain late next Monday night and Tuesday.    

Light snow overnight will cause slick conditions Monday morning

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties until Noon Monday as light snow will move across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. The light snow is beginning to move in from the west, crossing over the Mississippi River, and will continue to move east through the night. The light snow will come to an end mid to late morning Monday.

Snow accumulations will be light, however, with the extreme cold we've felt the last several days - and temperatures currently in the low to mid-teens Sunday night - any snow that does come down will stick right away to surfaces. Totals will range from half an inch, up to one to two inches. This will cause slick and icy conditions for Monday morning, and likely throughout the afternoon as high temperatures are only expected to remain in the upper teens. So, take it a little slow Monday morning and plan for a little extra travel time.

Temperatures Monday night will drop to the low single digits, right around zero degrees, as high pressure sinks south. Winds will then turn to the southwest Tuesday as temperatures begin their climb through the week.  

Dangerous Cold & Intense Winds Remain, Slow Improvements By Christmas

Welcome to the Arctic:

Thursday's strong frontal passage brought us from bitterly cold to "why do I live here" type cold as the anticipated Arctic blast was able to settle in. 

Temperatures at the Rockford International Airport dropped from the upper 20s Thursday morning to near 0° by about 4-5PM, to near -10° shortly after the midnight hour. 

That my friends is quite the drop. It gets dangerously worse when you factor in the rather intense westerly to northwesterly wind that is place across the region this morning. Wind chill values as of this writing are sitting in the -30° to -40° range. SHEESH! Again, please refrain from being outdoors this morning, or at any point today as frostbite can occur within 10 minutes if skin is left uncovered. 

Road Check-Up:

As far as roads are concerned, the latest from IDOT does show that most of the our counties are reporting mostly snow-covered roads. Roads in our more populated areas will be in better shape than those in open areas. 

Significant blowing and drifting snow will continue to make for hazardous travel, especially on north and south roadways. If you need to be out on the roads, I would recommend that you travel with extreme caution, especially in our more open areas.

Cold Christmas Weekend

These intense and brutally cold winds aren't going to diminish much as the day carries on. It's for that reason that our highs this afternoon will be heavily restricted, failing to eclipse the 0° mark. Friday night features little to no relief whatsoever as winds remain in the 30-40 mph range. 

It's not until we get into the afternoon hours Saturday that the wind department will begin to receive slow improvements. With a little sunshine filtering through Saturday's cloud cover, highs will finally have the opportunity to climb back above 0°. However, wind chills are expected to remain WELL below zero throughout the day. Temperatures into Christmas morning are expected to fall below zero for the third night in a row.

Christmas Day features a bit more sunshine as high pressure settles across the central plains. Despite that, temperatures will still be severely restricted, briefly touching the double-digits. It will still be important to wear multiple layers as wind chill values remain below zero. 

Improvements in the temperatures department begin to filter in Tuesday as southwesterly winds take over the western Great Lakes. Highs Tuesday will make the jump into the low 20s, then to the mid 30s Wednesday, then to the low 40s by Thursday. That's some climb if you ask me. From -1° this afternoon to our forecast high of 43° for next Thursday. I guess you can that the forecast does feature a light at the end of the tunnel. We'll just have to get through a few dangerous cold days!

Winter Storm Warning In Effect, Dangerous Travel Thursday into Friday

Winter Storm Warning:

The entire region will be placed under a WINTER STORM WARNING ahead of the highest impacts which aim to begin this afternoon. 

The first wave of scattered snow arrived Wednesday evening, lasting through much of the night. This has quickly resulted in slick and even snow-covered roads for some of our western counties. Mainly back roads and those that have not been treated.

Highest Impacts:

Closer to the mid-morning hours, we can expect snowfall rates to pick up in intensity, giving us a few hour window for accumulations to occur. At the same time, winds will gradually increase. 

Overall, I do think that most of our areas will be able to pick up 2-5″ of heavier snow before the snow comes to an end this evening. With that being said, the long-lasting impacts far outweigh the "how much" factor when it comes this significant winter storm. The combination of both the fresh snow and the rather intense winds will result in extremely difficult travel, especially late this afternoon into Friday evening.

Not only will blowing and drifting snow become a major issue, so will visibility. That is why we have been highly suggesting altering your travel plans if you have any during this specific time frame. You do not want to be stranded out in these harsh to life-threatening conditions. 

As we've seen out to our west, temperatures have been quickly crashing following the passage of this rather strong Arctic front. Expect that to occur today as we go from near 30-degrees this morning to near 0 by late this afternoon. The wind chill department also taking quite the hit as those values will be into the -25° to -35° range by Friday morning. 

Dangerous Cold Settles In:

It is likely that wind chills values will remain in this range all day Friday, all day Saturday, and for the early portions of Christmas day. For that reason, we highly recommend avoiding being outside as frostbite on exposed skin could occur within 10 minutes. 

Please spread the word to your friends, your loved ones, the elderly, and also make sure you're taking necessary precautions to keep your pets safe from this upcoming Arctic blast. Remember, pets are family too! Less clouds and more sunshine is in the works for Christmas Day. However, it's still going to be extremely cold as highs will struggle to get out of the single-digits. It's not until we enter the mid-portions of next week where we see temperatures approach late-December standards.

Update on Road Conditions

Early Road Check: The round of scattered light snow that moved in overnight has already made roads for a few of our counties either mostly or completely covered in snow. As of 4:30AM, the worst is being reported across Jo-Daviess and Ogle counties. If you HAVE to be out and about this morning, please allow for extra extra travel time and following distance. 

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5:30AM Update:

The latest from IDOT does show slight improvements in our roads across Rock, Winnebago, Jo-Daviess, and Ogle Counties. However, a good majority of our counties are still reporting mostly snow-covered roadways as of 5:30AM. 

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6:30AM Update:

No changes! 

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7:30AM Update:

Two changes as of 7:30AM. Walworth County up in southern Wisconsin is now reporting mostly-covered roads. Lee county here in northern Illinois is reporting partially-covered roads.

Continue to take extra caution, drive slowly, and keep a safe distance from other cars!

Highest Impacts Thursday afternoon into Friday, Dangerously Cold Weekend Ahead

Winter Storm Latest:

The biggest update as of this morning is that a few more of our western counties have been added to the Winter Storm Warning. Along with Jo-Daviess County, Carroll, Stephenson, and Whiteside Counties will be under a Winter Storm Warning from 6PM this evening to 6AM Saturday morning. The rest of the viewing area remains under a Winter Storm Watch until further notice. 

Clouds Increase:

Ahead of the anticipated winter storm, most of the daylight hours Wednesday will remain tranquil. In fact, we may get in on a bit of sunshine before clouds increase into the mid-day hours. Light snow will begin to fall shortly after the evening commute comes to a close, with scattered snow chances sticking around into Thursday morning. While minor accumulations are possible during this time, travel impacts aren’t likely to be severe. 

Highest Impacts Thursday:

Snowfall rates are then expected to pick up in intensity late Thursday morning, likely remaining intense well into the afternoon. Travel conditions during this time will deteriorate rather quickly, especially once the winds pick up following the passage of a powerful cold front. 

Remember, while the "how much" factor of a winter storm is important, the impacts carries with it a higher level of importance. With that being said, forecast models have been going back and forth with the storm's overall track into the Ohio Valley and the southern Great Lakes. With a more southeast wobble in the track, snowfall totals for those under the Winter Storm Watch should fall within the 2"-4" range, with those under the warning being able to pick up 3"-6". Now, it's also important to remember that most of the snow that falls Thursday afternoon into Friday morning will be wind-driven. 

Once the powerful frontal passage is complete, winds will pick up in intensity rather quickly, gusting up to 40-50 mph for most. It also wouldn't shock me if one or two of our local airports register a wind gust around the 55 mph mark. 

But the combination of the fresh snowfall along with the blustery winds will make traveling very difficult to near impossible at times. As we've said on multiple occasions, it would be very beneficial for you to get any last-minute preparations and shopping done today. It'll also be VERY important to alter any holiday travel plans that you have, especially between Thursday afternoon and mid-day Friday. 

Not only will the strong winds make for extremely difficult travel, it will also be responsible for the temperatures plunge that occurs prior to the upcoming holiday weekend. Highs Thursday will be observed during the early stages of the day, then plummeting into the afternoon. 

The wind chill department will also be in a state of free-fall post-frontal passage, landing in the -20° to -30° range by Friday morning. It is likely that wind chills values will remain in this range all day Friday, all day Saturday, and for the early portions of Christmas day. For that reason, we highly recommend avoiding being outside during this dangerously cold stretch as frostbite on exposed skin could occur within 10 minutes. Please spread the word to your friends, your loved ones, the elderly, and also make sure you're taking necessary precautions to keep your pets safe from this upcoming Arctic blast. Remember, pets are family too! 

This extreme wintry spell carries on into early next week as forecast models do show our next disturbance sliding to our west Monday. This may bring a few flurries to the area early in the day, with a slim chance extending into Tuesday!

The Latest on the Upcoming Dangerous Winter Storm, Take Time to Prepare

Short-Term Forecast:

With the weather remaining fairly quiet ahead of this week's significant winter storm, this will give you plenty of time to prepare. Our Tuesday begins on a cloudy note thanks to a cold front sliding through the western Great Lakes. 

This frontal boundary will have just enough low-level moisture and "oomph" with it to spark up a round of light snow. Other than a few slick spots, we can expect dry conditions to filter in behind the front, resulting in some clearing for the afternoon. Skies are expected to cloud over after the midnight hour, paving the way for a mostly cloudy Wednesday. From what I gathered from guidance earlier this morning, precipitation chances doesn't look to arrive until late Wednesday evening. So that gives you today and most of tomorrow to put together that emergency kit and get any shopping done.

Winter Storm Watch:

Our focus then turns towards the likelihood for a significant winter storm to impact the region Thursday into Friday, with dangerously cold Arctic air spilling in for Christmas weekend. If possible, alter any travel plans that you have as all forms of transportation will be severely impacted by what this significant storm system brings. To recap, a WINTER STORM WATCH was issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin beginning late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, lasting through late Friday evening. 

Timing It Out:

Forecast models show a developing area of low-pressure near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Thursday lifting into the southern Great Lakes by Friday morning. On it's approach to the Stateline, snow will begin to develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, with snow chances likely sticking around throughout the day. 

From Thursday evening onward, conditions will rapidly deteriorate as strong winds also slide into the mix. It's during this time when blizzard-like conditions will be possible, meaning winds blowing from the west will be able to gust as high as 55 mph. This would cause white-out conditions and make travel extremely dangerous to near impossible. That's even if we end up with little snow.

Impacts:

Fun fact, you don't need falling snow for blizzard-like conditions to develop. All you need is blowing snow, 1/4 mile visibility, 35+ mph sustained winds all happening for at least three hours.

If you are out traveling and end up getting stuck or stranded, the strong winds and dangerously cold air could be life-threatening. Power outages are also going to be a big possibility due to the winds and weighted tree branches from the snow. While the snow aims to come to an end sometime around mid-day Friday, continue to avoid being on the roads as blizzard-like conditions are more than likely going to continue.

Christmas Weekend Cold:

Ahead of this storm system, temperatures Thursday are expected to rise into the upper 20s, but then rapidly drop overnight once the low tracks into the Great Lakes. Expect temperatures Friday morning to be near the 0-degree mark, with wind chills values falling as low as -30 degrees!  Wind chills as dangerously cold as this will unfortunately last through the holiday weekend. 

High temperatures will struggle to make it into the double-digits, and lows will fall below zero. Winds will ease some on Christmas Day, but it'll still remain extremely cold! 

Shifting back to the winter storm, remember to remain updated on the forecast. There is still some wiggle room for the forecast to change. But still, that alone shouldn't stop you from taking the necessary precautions to keep you and you loved ones safe. We will continue to keep you updated throughout the week, so make sure to keep checking back!Whether that's by watching us on TV, or by checking the latest on the First Warn Weather App!

Potentially dangerous late week winter storm

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin beginning late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, lasting through late Friday evening. A major winter storm is expected to impact the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes by the end of the week.

Before that, light snow has been moving in from the west Monday evening. This is tied to an upper-level disturbance and cold front that'll sweep across the region Tuesday morning. Dry air initially will limit any snowfall through the early evening, but flurries and light snow showers are expected to fall late evening and overnight. Any accumulations will be light, only expecting a dusting, but with air temperatures in the low 20s the snow will stick when it falls. Slick conditions are possible through Tuesday morning.

All eyes will then turn towards the likely winter storm expected to impact the Stateline Thursday and Friday, with extreme cold lasting into the holiday weekend. Low pressure developing near the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma will lift to the northeast Thursday, quickly strengthening as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning. It's the quick strengthening of the low that will cause winds to rapidly increase Thursday night and Friday morning. While the overall track of the low is likely to change over the next couple of days, it is extremely important to pay attention to the forecast as impacts to travel are certain before the holiday weekend.

As it looks Monday evening: snow will quickly develop during the day Thursday with conditions rapidly deteriorating by Thursday evening/night. During this time blizzard-like conditions are possible, lasting into Friday morning as winds are expected to gust as high as 55 mph from the west. This would cause white-out conditions and make travel very dangerous (even if only a little snow ends up falling). If you are out traveling and end up getting stuck or stranded, the wind and cold could even be life-threatening. Power outages are also possible due to the strong winds and weighted tree branches from the snow. 

The snow will last through mid-day Friday, but the strong winds will continue into Saturday causing blowing and drifting snow to remain a concern during that time. Temperatures Thursday are expected to rise into the upper 20s, but then rapidly drop Thursday night into the single digits, to near zero degrees. Wind chills during that time could fall as low as -30 degrees! The bitterly cold wind chills will last through the weekend as high temperatures struggle to make it much above ten degrees, and lows fall below zero. Winds will ease some on Christmas Day, but it'll still remain very cold! It'll likely be one of the coldest Christmas Days we've felt in years. 

If you have any travel plans during this time, now is the time to start thinking about altering or even postponing travel as road conditions would quickly deteriorate making travel impossible in some locations. While it is not yet exactly known where the greatest impacts will be felt (regarding snow totals, highest wind speeds) across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, we have high confidence in the dangerous cold and strong winds that'll impact the area. It's very important to make sure you're not only remaining updated on the forecast this week but taking time to make the necessary preparations for your home and vehicle. Now is the time to prepare. We will continue to keep you updated throughout the week, so make sure to keep checking back.    

Few Flurries Late, Significant Storm to Bring Impacts Prior to Christmas

Cloudy Streak Ends:

Well folks, it sure was a beautiful sight to see. That big bright object in the sky known as the sun finally made an appearance after a long cloudy streak. Prior to yesterday's sunshine, the Rockford International Airport hasn't seen it's average cloud cover value register below 70% since December 4th. Doing the math, that is a LONG 14 day stretch. So all in all, the sunshine was MUCH-NEEDED to the highest degree. 

Few Flurries Late:

The Stateline may manage to sneak in a few peeks of sunshine during the early stages of the day. However, clouds will be quick to move back in as a disturbance approaches from the west. Along with the increase in cloud cover does come the low potential for a few late-day flurries. 

I say late-day because the incoming moisture will have a bit of dry air to fight off before we see any snowflakes make it to the ground. Accumulations, if any, won't amount to more than a half inch. Slightly higher accumulations can be expected the further north you go into Wisconsin. Thanks to a bit more breakage in the clouds and a southwest shift in our winds, Tuesday is going to end up being the "warmest" day of the week. The combination of both will get most spots back in the upper 20s, with a spot or two briefly touching the 30° mark.  

Late-Week Winter Storm:

Now, lets dive into this week's biggest weather headline, the upcoming winter storm. Here's what we know as of this morning. With a bitterly cold air-mass already in place across N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin, snow will be the primary type of precipitation. Impacts locally will be high, both because of the accumulating snow potential and the likelihood for strong winds. 

What remains in question of course with this event being a few days away is the precise location of the storms track and snowfall amounts. That will be fine-tuned as we inch closer to the event itself. But for right now, the best thing to do is to not pay attention to any click-bait posts on social media. Instead, take this time to prepare. 

Light snow aims to begin Wednesday night, with snow becoming more widespread and likely during the entire day Thursday. As the low inches closer to the region, winds will heighten the likelihood for impacts Thursday night into Friday. If this scenario were to play out, the mention of "near white-out" conditions will be on the table. 

This would the time frame in which travel impacts will be there highest. Again, adjustments and wobbles in the forecast are likely leading up to the event.Snow then could continue into the first half of Friday before coming to a close during the afternoon. Again, adjustments and wobbles in the forecast are likely leading up to the event.

How to Prepare:

The best thing to do right now as we await the finer details is to prepare. To do that, make sure to...

1. Monitor the forecast

2. Stock up on supplies

3. Adjust travel plans if necessary

Extremely Cold Christmas:

Now, the component of the forecast that has been consistent the is likelihood for an Arctic blast following the departure of this system. High temperatures both Friday and Saturday are going to struggle to make it out of  single digits. 

Overnight lows will end up even colder, likely falling below the 0-degree mark both Friday night and Christmas Eve night. For Santa Clause himself, he's used to these kind of numbers being from the north pole and all. But for us, it's going to be very important to avoid being outside for a prolonged period of time. Especially since we may be talking wind chill values will be flirting with Wind Chill Advisory or even Wind Chill Warning criteria.

Sunshine makes a brief return Sunday, Light snow Monday night

 

After nearly a two week stretch of cloudy, dreary and cold December days, the sunshine FINALLY returns for many Sunday afternoon, but it may not return completely for all.

High pressure moving through the Plains Sunday morning will continue the trek east, pushing the pesky low-pressure system that has been lingering across the Great Lakes further away from the Stateline. Drier air also moving in will help get rid of any lingering moisture, working to clear skies mid-morning. The clearing will take place from west to east but may not entirely clear northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, especially for locations east and north of Rockford. For those areas, skies may end up with more cloud cover than sunshine.

Temperatures have dropped where the skies are clearing as a blustery west wind has pushed wind chill values down below zero. The chill is expected to last through the day with high temperatures only warming to the low 20s. Wind chills will remain in the low teens. Winds will ease a bit Sunday night allowing temperatures to fall to right around 10 degrees. Temperatures Monday will rise into the mid 20s as cloud cover moves back.

A weak upper-level disturbance moving through late in the day will help bring back the cloud cover during the afternoon and evening, along with bringing in another rough of light snow Monday evening and overnight. Accumulations will remain light, a dusting to an inch, adding on to the current snow cover we currently have from the last few days. Slippery conditions are possible with the snow Monday night and Tuesday morning.