Weather Pattern Turns Mild Ahead of Upcoming Winter Storm

Looking Back:

It's incredible to think that it was on this day 3 years ago when the Polar Vortex peaked, allowing Rockford and the state of Illinois to experience it's coldest morning on record. 

Officially, the Rockford Airport fell to -31°, breaking the previous record of -27° set back on January 10th, 1982. The temperature sensor in Mount Carroll fell to a whopping -38°, beating the previous state record of -36° set in Congerville, IL. Fortunately, we're not that EXTREMELY cold this morning. But you may want to be on the lookout for patchy fog if you plan on traveling during the morning commute hours.

Mild Start to the Week:

With temperatures starting off in the single-digits, some of the fog you experience this morning may be in the form of "freezing fog". This may lead to a few slick spots, especially for those that areas experience the thickest fog. Allow for extra time if traveling. The rest of the "last day of January" remains quiet under a partly sunny sky. 

Thanks to a little sunshine and an organized wind out of the south/southeast, highs will peak in the low 30s. This warming trend is expected to continue into Tuesday, with highs climbing close to the 40 degree mark. Tuesday features more cloud cover as our next frontal boundary slides in from the northwest. With a little moisture to work with, a few rain showers will be possible Tuesday afternoon. As temperatures fall behind the frontal passage, we'll eventually see a transition to snow. 

Midweek Winter Storm:

Forecast models continue to show the potential for snow, with the first of two rounds arriving late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This round seems to occur closer to the frontal boundary in central Illinois, with the bigger impacts being felt in areas to the south and east of Rockford. Locally, impacts will be more felt with the second round of snow that looks to move in late Wednesday into the early stages of Thursday. 

Following a brief lull in some of the snow activity, snow showers are expected to redevelop during the afternoon Wednesday. A swath of more moderate to heavy snow will likely fall from central Kansas through central Illinois, where totals could add up to near or over a foot!

As of this morning, the National Weather Service has placed these area under a Winter Storm Watch. As for us, enough moisture does slide north enough to where we'll see a chance for snow showers during this time. However, there will more than likely be a sharp gradient in snow totals across northern Illinois, with portions of extreme NW Illinois seeing little to no snow. Of course, any northward shift in the storm's track will bring higher totals to the area.

With that being said, it's still way too early in the forecasting process to be throwing out snowfall accumulations. Details will become clearer by sometime tomorrow as the storm system inches closer to the western Great Lakes. What I do urge you to do is stay up-to-date with the forecast, and make sure that you get the latest information from reliable sources. Nowadays, it's easy to run into a post on social media from a page that's utilizing the information for the clicks and likes.

Temperatures warm for the end of January, beginning of February

 

The warming trend from the weekend will continue into Monday as high temperatures reach the low 30s by late afternoon, remaining in the low to mid 30s through Tuesday morning.  A shift in the wind direction to the South will help push a slightly warmer air mass into the Stateline Monday, and briefly Tuesday, before temperatures tumble back down by the middle to end of the week.

Cloud cover from Sunday evening may thin a little overnight allowing some areas of patchy fog to develop.  With temperatures dipping into the teens early Monday, patchy freezing fog may be possible - but isn't expected to be widespread.  High pressure will shift to the east Monday, turning winds more from the South during the afternoon and evening.  This will help bring high temperatures into the low 30s during the afternoon, with temperatures remaining in the 30s through much of Monday night.  The very warm start Tuesday will help temperatures reach 40 degrees before a cold front comes through mid-day.

Winds will turn breezy for a time Monday into Tuesday as the low level jet increases, helping transport more moisture into the Stateline.  The increase in moisture will lead to a few isolated showers during the first half of the day Tuesday before a cold front passes through.  Increasing winds behind the cold front will bring in a colder air mass which will settle in Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Temperatures will then fall into the teens to low 20s to round out the week, warming back near 30 degrees for the first weekend of February.

Weekend warm up after another bitter cold morning

We really have been up and down these last few days as far as temperatures go. We have one more major cool down in store for the overnight before we begin the slow ascent to the upper 30s. Temperatures tonight will drop down close to or just below zero, with subzero wind chills. How much or how little cloud cover will have a lot to do with how cold our temperatures get tonight. More cloud cover means more insulation and warmer overnight lows. Less cloud cover means colder temperatures. Sub-zero temperatures are likely for most of the Stateline tonight.

Wind chills look to be the lowest between 2AM and 9AM, before they begin to improve for the rest of the morning and afternoon.

You will definitely want to bundle up for the early part of the morning, as wind chills this cold can cause frostbite in around 30 minutes!

Luckily, the rest of the day tomorrow is looking much warmer. Cloud cover will increase through the morning and afternoon, leaving mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will get back into the 20s for the afternoon high, just a touch below normal for this time of year.

Tomorrow is just the first of four more days of warming temperatures, as we will slowly creep toward and even above average highs for Monday and Tuesday. Clear skies and MUCH warmer conditions expected for the weekend and early next week as we get near 40° for our Tuesday high. Calm and quiet conditions expected over the next few days, enjoy the short break from winter!

Looking beyond the short term warm up for the next couple days, we could see a weather system bring some winter impacts to the Midwest. As we are still more than a few days away from the onset of this system, we have very little confidence about specifics of the direct impacts. We are seeing the increasing chance for impacts across the region, but details like precipitation type, amounts, and exact timing are still yet to be resolved as we get closer to that time frame. I encourage you to disregard posts more than 24-36 hours out trying to give potential snow totals or anything like that. Many sources where posts like that come from are inaccurate, as we cannot reliably predict details like that more than a couple days out.

This is certainly a system to watch in the coming days as details become more resolved. Stay tuned to Your First Warn Weather Forecast over the weekend and early next week! Here’s what the rest of the week is looking like:

Colder Friday, Gradually Warming into Next Week

Colder Friday:

Yesterday felt rather "pleasant", considering the fact that Rockford hit an extremely cold low of -18 Wednesday morning. A little sunshine, along with a decent southwest wind, pushed our highs into the low to mid 30s. But just as quick as we were to warm back up, a cold front sliding through late in the day yesterday had no issues taking the warmth away for the end of the work week. 

Since the frontal passage, temperatures have been falling across the area, with most landing in the low to mid single-digits. With an organized wind out of the north, wind chills values are registering near or below-zero. If you plan to head out the door, make sure to dress for the weather, preferably in three or more layers to stay warm.

With that being said, this cold start to our Friday is a sign for things to come as highs will be limited to the mid-teens. This is despite the sunny skies that lie ahead. With an area of high pressure nearby, skies remain clear Friday night into Saturday morning. This will allow radiational cooling to take place, allowing temperatures to rapidly drop below-zero. Thankfully, this brief spell of Arctic air will make it's way out by Saturday afternoon, allowing a warming trend to commence.

Trending Upward:

The weekend looks to remain fairly quiet for the most part, with more cloud cover being featured on Saturday than Sunday. The only chance, and it's a very slim chance, for any precipitation comes in the form of a weak and moisture-starved cold front late Saturday night. 

Chances look to come to an end by early Sunday morning, with temperatures climbing closer to average. As a ridge of high pressure takes control higher up in the atmosphere, this will allow warmer air to race northward early next week. Highs on Monday look to peak in the mid to upper 30s, with temperatures close to 40 by Tuesday. 

Next Week's Storm:

While we'll welcome the incoming warm-up with open arms, all eyes are on the possibility for a significant storm system during the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday time-frame. Forecast models show this event starting out as a mix of rain and snow late Tuesday before changing over to accumulating snow Wednesday and Thursday, But due to the fact that we are still 5 days out at the least from anything happening, there will be changes made to the forecast guaranteed. If you have plans during this time, it'll be best to stay up-to-date with the forecast. 

Brief Warm-Up for Thursday, Temps Fall into Friday

Brief Warm-Up:

Take a good look folks! First off, we're not waking up to a wind chill advisory this morning. Secondly, the entire region is waking up to MUCH, and I mean MUCH warmer temperatures thanks to a "warm" south/southwest wind overnight. 

As a matter of fact, temperatures compared to 24 hours ago are starting off 30° to 40° warmer, with most sitting in the low 20s. Although wind chill values aren't dangerously low like Wednesday morning, you still want to make sure to put on an extra layer or two before heading out. Our southwest wind is also contributing to single-digit wind chills early on. 

A cold front sliding through during the mid-day to early afternoon hours will keep the cloud cover around, as well as the breeze. The only difference being the wind direction, as winds after the frontal passage will shift to the northwest. Gusts at times are expected to peak at 20-25 mph. 

A few isolated flurries and snow showers will also be possible, but we won't see much if anything for accumulation. Our snow chances linger into the early hours of tonight, with skies gradually clearing into the early stages of our Friday. That, along with the cold air rushing in behind today's cold front will set the stage for a much cooler day to round out the current work week. 

Colder Friday:

With a very dry and cold atmosphere in place Friday morning, temperatures look to fall on either side of the 0-degree mark. Winds won't be as strong as what we're walking out to this morning, but it will be just enough to place wind chills well below-zero. It's safe to say you'll need to pack on those layers before going about your day. Despite plenty of sunshine throughout the day, highs will be limited to the low to mid teens. It's looking more than likely we'll see temperatures at or below zero by Saturday morning.

Coldest temperatures in nearly 3 years Wednesday morning

Temperatures tumbled quickly early Wednesday, falling to the double digits below zero area wide.  Rockford officially fell to -18 degrees, our coldest morning low since the end of January, 2019.  While winds were mostly light through the morning with high pressure centered over northwest Illinois, wind chills in a few locations dropped as low as -40 degrees.  

That -40 degree wind chill occurred in Rochelle,

while the air temperature dropped to -23 degrees!  Wind chills remained below zero throughout the afternoon as temperatures struggled to climb much above 10 degrees once again.  We will see the numbers fall slightly Wednesday evening but as southwest winds increase through the night, temperatures will actually warm into Thursday morning.  The warm up will continue into Thursday afternoon with highs rising close to 30 degrees.  Another strong cold front will move through by the evening, bringing lows down to around 1 degree Friday morning and only into the mid teens Friday afternoon.

Wednesday Kicks Off Dangerously Cold, Brief Improvements Arrive Thursday

Dangerously Cold Start:

BE PREPARED FOLKS! If you thought Tuesday started off bitterly cold, this morning is starting off even colder. With a perfect environment in place overnight, temperatures across the region were able to bottom out or rapidly drop well-below zero. 

This marks the coldest morning in Rockford since the Arctic outbreak in late-January 2019. Although winds remained light overnight, it was still enough to drag down our wind chill values into the -20° to -30° range, prompting the issuance of another Wind Chill Advisory. Similar to the one from Tuesday, this one includes the entire viewing area and will be in effect up until mid-day.

How to Prepare? 

The dangerously cold air in place this morning has been cold enough for multiple school districts across the region to close. But, for those who still have to go to school or if you're heading into work, make sure to really pack on those layers. 

Preferably 3 or more layers will help you stay warm and insulated. To avoid getting frostbite, make sure those extra layers cover any exposed skin. It won't take long for signs of frostbite to become apparent, especially with wind chills as low as they are this morning. The worst of the wind chill temperatures are expected to occur just before sunrise, easing a little into the mid-morning hours. Wind chills will still remain below zero through the afternoon as southwest winds pick up. 

Changing Pattern: 

Unfortunately, the sunshine and warmer southwest winds don't spell a warmer forecast for us. Under a few passing clouds this afternoon, highs for most will struggle to climb out of the single-digits. Now, tonight's low will be achieved early in the night as our southwest winds will allow temperatures to climb into Thursday morning. 

Along with the climbing temperatures, clouds are expected to gather up as our next system dives into the Upper Midwest. This will help bring a cold front into the region sometime during the early to mid-afternoon hours Thursday. Ahead of the front, southwest winds will pull in more seasonable temperatures, with most of our spots landing in the upper 20s and low 30s. 

Forecast models do show enough low-level moisture to warrant a chance for a few afternoon and evening snow showers. Impacts to the evening commute are not expected. Behind Thursday's front, another wave of Arctic air briefly slides in for Friday. Highs to round out the work week look to peak in the low to mid teens, with overnight lows falling below 0° by Saturday morning.

Coldest temperatures so far this Winter expected Wednesday morning

 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY is once again in effect for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin as dangerously cold wind chills are expected across much of the Midwest and Northern Plains Wednesday morning. Wind chills as low as -30 degrees are possible in some locations throughout the area, meaning frostbite can occur within just 30 minutes.

A strong Arctic high pressure system currently moving through southwest Minnesota will slide closer to northwest Illinois by sunrise Wednesday. Temperatures didn't warm much Tuesday afternoon, with highs struggling to make it to 10 degrees. It wasn't quite record cold, but definitely cold enough as the high in Rockford only reached 8 degrees. The record cold high temperature for January 25th is 3 degrees set back in 1972.

Clear skies and relatively light winds are expected Tuesday night sending temperatures tumbling quickly below zero by 6pm/7pm. Northwest winds still be around 10 mph which will push wind chill values during the evening anywhere between 10-20 degree below zero.

The worst of the wind chill temperatures are expected to occur just before sunrise, easing a little by 8am/9am. Wind chills will still remain below zero through the afternoon as southwest winds pick up with high pressure sliding to the east and southeast. Temperatures through much of Wednesday will remain in the single digits, warming slightly by Wednesday night as southwest winds increase.

A cold front passing through the region Thursday will give temperatures a bump near 30 degrees, but will also bring with it a chance for a few light flurries or snow showers. Cold air returns behind the front, but it won't be as bone-chilling cold as the first half of the week. A pattern change into next week will bring temperatures back up into the low 30s with a chance for some light precipitation, possibly rain, during the afternoon.

Dangerously Cold Tuesday & Wednesday, Coldest Night of the Season Arrives Tonight

Back to the Arctic:

With Monday's quick-moving clipper system over and done with, our attention now turns to the bone-chilling cold that's settling in this morning. A Wind Chill Advisory is now in effect for the entire region until mid-morning as wind chill values are expected to range from -15° to -25°. 

Now, before you head out the door, make sure you are prepared. It'll be important to dress in extra layers, preferably 3 or more layers, and to avoid being outside for a prolonged period of time. If you CAN'T avoid being outdoors, cover as much exposed skin as possible as the cold we're dealing with this morning could lead to frostbite within 30-minutes. Also, don't leave your pets outside! Remember, if it's too cold for you, it's too cold for them. 

Coldest Night on the Way:

With an area of high pressure directly to our northwest, wall-to-wall sunshine is expected for our Tuesday. Unfortunately, that won't help temperatures much as most will struggle to make it out of the single-digits this afternoon.

A lingering northwesterly wind will keep wind chills below 0° so make sure to have those layers handy later on. Guidance continues to show that area of high pressure moving over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin tonight, resulting in the coldest night of the season thus far. And similar to this morning, another round of wind chill advisory looks very likely for tonight into Wednesday morning.

Underneath a mostly clear sky, temperatures will bottom out or drop rapidly, falling as low as -10° to -15° by Wednesday morning. If you're keeping track, the last time the Rockford International Airport came in with a low that cold was February 17th of last year. So yes, it's been a while. Along for the ride does come a modest breeze,  which will be just enough of one to send wind chills down to -20° to -30° below zero. 

Again, take the same precautions are you are this morning. Try your best to limit the time you spend outdoors. Dress warmly, using plenty of layers, and consume hot fluids as often as possible. This upcoming Arctic wave seems to ease slightly into Wednesday as winds will shift to the southwest. While we do see more seasonable temperatures by Thursday, another cold front will slightly drop our temperatures as we jump into the weekend.

Slippery Snowy AM Commute, Arctic Air Rushes in Behind Today's Clipper

Slick/Snow-Covered Roads:

As we prepare for our Monday, clipper system number two is currently sliding into the area, bringing with it another round of light to at times moderate snow and hazardous travel. 

Earlier this morning, a Winter Weather Advisory went into effect for Winnebago, Ogle, Boone, McHenry, and Dekalb counties in northern Illinois, along with Rock and Walworth counties up in southern Wisconsin. This advisory is timed to remain in effect up until mid-day, with most spots picking up right around the same as the clipper system that passed through over the weekend. The main concern of course being slippery travel as forecast models earlier this morning showcased the heavier snowfall rates occurring during the morning commute. If traveling, be sure to give yourself extra time and drive slowly.

Arctic Cold Returns:

Thankfully, this storm system will be quick to exit, with snowfall expected to fully taper off by mid to late morning. Left behind will be a decent amount of cloud cover and an organized northwesterly wind. Even though highs this afternoon are expected to peak in the mid to upper 20s, this wind shift will help usher in another round of frigidly cold Arctic air. As skies clear into the overnight hours, temperatures will crash into Tuesday morning, with most landing on either side of the 0-degree mark.

Unfortunately, temperatures get lower from there. Despite plenty of sunshine on Tuesday, highs will be limited to the upper single-digits. With winds still blowing out of the northwest, wind chills throughout the day will remain below 0°. The worst of the cold slides in Tuesday night as an area of high pressure settles over the Stateline. 

So far this winter season, our coldest night was back on January 7th where the Rockford Airport fell to -6°. It looks like Tuesday night will more than likely top that temperatures look to drop as low as -10° to -15°. Wind chills could be as low as -20° to -30°, which will low enough for the issuance of a Wind Chill Advisory. As we say all the time, be prepared before stepping out the door. Dress appropriately in extra layers and avoid being outside for a prolonged period of time!

Weekend snow, arctic chill on the way

Temperatures were a little warmer today than yesterday, but the warmth will not last very long. Snow chances ramp up this weekend, starting tonight. Colder air moves in after into the middle of next week. Snow chances start tonight, with the passage of a cold front. Flurries are possible from around midnight tonight through the morning tomorrow. Slick spots are possible on roadways, as our temperatures have been below freezing now for a few days.

Temperatures tonight will be not nearly as cold as they were the previous night. But we will see temperatures nearly into single digits with those chances for flurries.

Snow chances last into Saturday morning. Temperatures a bit warmer still for Saturday, but breezy conditions keep our wind chills on the colder side. Snow chances return late in the evening Saturday.

The snow chances for Saturday evening into Sunday morning are a bit more widespread than the previous chance for snow with a clipper system. We could see widespread an inch or two of snow with some locally higher amounts. This will definitely give us some slick conditions and enough snow to shovel off sidewalks. These snow showers last through the early part of Sunday morning. 

The third chance for snow comes with a second clipper late Sunday night into and through Monday afternoon. This clipper looks to be trending more North for the moment, but some light accumulations are possible once again. There is still a little uncertainty with the track of this one, so keep updated on the forecast through the weekend!

That is a lot of chances for snow in a short time, so here is a recap of the three storm systems. Saturday evening into Sunday morning is the system that could bring us 1"-2" of light, fluffy snow, with some locally higher amounts.

Looking beyond Monday, we see arctic air return for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the teens and lows close to or below zero. Tuesday night into Wednesday has the chance to bring us our coldest air of the year. 

The 7-Day forecast shows that cold really moving in quickly after the snow chances this weekend.

Wind Chill Advisory Remains in Effect, Snow chances Arrive over the Weekend

Dangerous Chills:

BRRRR! This Arctic surge is in full swing as the Stateline is waking to single-digit temperatures dangerous wind chills this morning. For some, wind chills will be less tolerable than others. 

That is why the National Weather Service has placed Green County up in Southern Wisconsin, along with Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside Counties in Northern Illinois under a Wind Chill Advisory until 12PM today. Wind chills early on, especially in the areas under the advisory, will range between -15° to 25°, allowing frostbite to occur within 30-minutes if proper precautions aren't taken.

Bitterly Cold, but Dry:

With high pressure close by, sunshine is expected to dominate our skies once again. However, winds will continue to be out of a northwesterly to northerly direction, allowing high temperatures to top out in the lower teens. 

Comparing that to our average numbers, this lands roughly 15° to 20° below average. With less of a wind today, wind chills will climb towards the 0-degree mark, but should remain below-zero throughout the entirety of the day.The high pressure system mentioned previously is shown moving over the region by tomorrow afternoon, allowing sunny skies to return for Friday. A southwest shift in our winds will help pull "slightly warmer" air into the region, pushing our highs into the low 20s.

Few Systems to Watch:

As we enter the weekend, our focus will shift from the frigid Arctic cold to the "carousel" of light snow chances that are on the horizon. The first shot comes in the form of a cold front that looks to slide through the area late Saturday. 

Guidance continues to show a band of flurries and light snow moving in ahead of the front, resulting in minor accumulations. Quick to follow are a pair of Alberta clipper system, one moving in early in the day on Sunday, then again on Monday. Of the two systems, forecast models showcase Monday's system being the more potent of the two. As far as accumulations are concerned, we are still too far out in the forecasting process to formally put out numbers. However, it'll be important to stay up-to-date with the forecast over the next few days. 

Dangerous wind chills possible early Thursday morning

 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY has been issued for Green County in southwest Wisconsin, as well as for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties in northwest Illinois beginning Wednesday evening and lasting through Thursday morning.

Already wind chills across northwest Illinois have fallen down to -15 degrees thanks to a brisk northwest wind.  Those chills are expected to drop even further as temperatures fall through the evening, settling on

either side of zero degrees by Thursday morning.

Wind chills as low as -20 degrees are possible in some locations Thursday morning, meaning frostbite can occur on exposed skin within just 30 minutes.  So please make sure you're taking the necessary precautions to protect yourself in the morning.  As high pressure moves closer to the area during the day, the winds will become a little more light, especially towards Thursday evening.