Update: TORNADO WATCH issued for the Stateline

5:00pm UPDATE: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OGLE COUNTY UNTIL 5:15PM. The storm currently over Byron, IL is moving to the northeast at 40 mph and is capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts. If you're in the area of this storm, seek shelter immediately. It has had a history of producing a 60 mph earlier near Sterling.  

UPDATE: TORNADO WARNING CANCELED FOR JO DAVIESS COUNTY

3:30pm UPDATE: A TORNADO WARNING has been issued for north-central Jo Daviess County until 4pm. A severe storm located over/near Galena is capable of producing a tornado, moving north at 40 mph. Those in the impact area: Galena and Council Hill.

UPDATE: A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for all of our northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin counties until 8pm. Rapid development of thunderstorms is likely by mid-afternoon, some posing the risk to turn severe. Make sure you have a way to receive these watches and warnings as they are issued throughout the afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 

Thunderstorms from Saturday morning have cleared rather quickly, giving way to a partly sunny sky Saturday afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper 60s across northern Illinois on the heels of a gusty southeast wind.

As a warm front nears closer through the afternoon from the south, and a cold front from the east, thunderstorms are likely to develop quickly within the next couple of hours across western Illinois. With the clearing that has taken place over the last couple of hours, instability has developed and will continue to slowly rise through the afternoon.

This will help feed some of the thunderstorms for late this afternoon, along with the strong winds in the jet stream. Storms are expected to turn severe, with all hazards of severe weather possible; hail, wind and tornadoes. 

The initial development of the storms will likely be individual storm cells, merging into more of a cluster, or line of storms, once they move east of I-39. It's the individual storms that we will need to keep an eye on for any rotation that could pose a tornado risk through mid-afternoon.

It's likely that a tornado watch will be issued within the next hour for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with the anticipation of thunderstorms to develop quickly through the afternoon.    

Strong to severe storms possible for the Stateline Saturday

Temperatures across the Stateline were cooler than average to start the work week off, but luckily we are now seeing a rebound of much warmer air settle in again for Saturday. However, this could call for some strong to severe storms.

Friday the Storm Prediction Center highlighted southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas for the best chances of severe weather. Now that same system that produced 15 tornadoes Friday and Friday night, according to the Storm Prediction Center (as of 4:30 am 4/30/22), shifts closer to our area. The Storm Prediction Center has nearly the entire Stateline, and a good chunk of Illinois under a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of seeing strong to severe storms. We could very well see a few watches and warnings take place across the area Saturday afternoon and evening, so make sure to have several ways to get watches and warnings. 

A NOAA Weather Radio is one of the best ways to receive watches and warnings. If you have not already, you can head to mystateline.com/radio. Enter the code WTVO at checkout for a discount and $5 shipping. It is crucial to have a weather radio in case severe weather strikes the Stateline as we are in severe weather season.

The time frame on the storms for the Stateline will be between 2-8pm with peak around 4pm. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the biggest concerns across Northern Illinois. Expect rainfall totals for most between 0.25-1.00" with some areas that see pockets of very heavy rain, picking up a bit more.

Winds are expected to gust up to 45mph Saturday afternoon and evening, without thunderstorm winds accounted for. Current wind gusts at 5am Saturday, are up to 35mph. The gusty conditions could drive some wind damage across the Stateline, although that is not our only concern as some hail and a few isolated tornadoes are even possible too.

We had some cloud cover overnight and still have showers popping up on radar as of 5am southwest of the Stateline. If we see some clearing take place, that will help destabilize the atmosphere later on Saturday.

Temperatures Saturday morning are in the 50s in almost all places in the Stateline. Highs across the Stateline will reach the upper 60s Saturday, similar to Friday with dew points climbing into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temperatures will drop overnight around 49 degrees. The next few days we return to slightly below normal temperatures.

Temperatures Improve Ahead of Saturday's Severe Potential

Temperatures Improve:

It's been a chilly stretch as of late as temperatures at the Rockford International Airport have peaked in the low 50s each of the last 4 days. Fortunately, all signs point to an improvement in the temperature department starting today as highs will be rather seasonable into the beginning of May. 

Following Thursday's scattered round of showers, conditions have dried out some into the early stages of our Friday. If your daily routine takes you out the door before mid-morning, you'll already notice the difference in temperatures as the Stateline is waking up in the mid to upper 40s. This warmer start tells the tale for the rest of our day as we'll see temperatures  quickly soar into the 60s by this afternoon. Similar to Thursday, the best chance for any sun will be during the morning hours as clouds are expected to thicken up.

Weekend Rain:

Quick to follow will be our next shot at some showers which looks to arrive as early as the evening commute hours. If you have plans this evening, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have an umbrella on hand. 

Guidance then shows another round of scattered showers, even a few embedded thunderstorms sliding in as the sun rises tomorrow morning. Fortunately, this round won't have the potential to become severe. However, we'll need to watch and see how it affects the state of our atmosphere.

If the morning showers and thunderstorms linger too long, then the chance for severe weather won't be as high. This will give the atmosphere a shorter time period to destabilize or "re-energize". 

Now, if the morning convection is able to clear the region early enough, the atmosphere will have a better opportunity to "re-charge", allowing the risk for severe weather to proceed. It'll be important to keep eye on the forecast, especially if you have any plans Saturday afternoon and evening. 

Severe Outlook:

As of this morning's update, the Storm Prediction Center has placed half the region (along and west of I-39) under a Marginal Risk while placing the other half (east of I-39) in a Slight Risk. 

Current thinking suggest that if the atmosphere has time to "re-charge", severe storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large-sized hail, and  an isolated tornado or two. Conditions then look to quiet down and cool down a bit for Sunday as highs only peak in the upper 50s. Forecast models do show the chance for a passing shower or two lasting into the end of the weekend.

Showery Thursday, Best Shot for Rain Arrives Over the Weekend

Showery, Cool Thursday:

While having the umbrella on hand hasn't been necessary so far this week, that all changes today as shower chances return. Now, it's safe to say that today won't be close to a washout, but scattered showers will be possible at any point of the day. 

More of the same is expected temperatures-wise as highs will be limited once again to the upper 40s and lower 50s under a mostly cloudy to overcast sky. Aside from an isolated shower or two, Friday looks to remain mainly dry under a mostly cloudy sky. Winds do kick up a smidge out of the southeast, with gusts approaching 25-30 mph during the afternoon.

Saturday's Rain Chances:

Our best shot at some rainfall and even a few storms comes during the day on Saturday. A storm system located over the central plains looks to swing to our northwest by Saturday, leaving the Stateline under a gusty southeast flow. 

This will help surge plenty of moisture into the Stateline, resulting in a few rounds of rain (possibly heavy) during the day. While models weren't too high on the amount of energy in our atmosphere, a few thunderstorms will be possible before the dry slot takes over Saturday evening.

Severe Threat:

Some of which could be strong to severe. As of earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed the entire area under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with the higher threat focused across central and southern Illinois. Now, there are still some uncertainties when it comes to Saturday's severe threat. One being the amount of daytime heating/destabilization that occurs. We should know more as forecast models hone in on Saturday's thunderstorm potential over the next 24 to 48 hours. So, stay tuned for updates! Otherwise, highs beginning Friday look to peak in the lower 60s and remain there into early next week!

Rainy pattern set to continue

The majority of Wednesday afternoon remained dry, despite what you may have been looking at on radar. We were in and out of the cloud cover for much of the afternoon, until clouds thickened early in the evening. Temperatures for most warmed into the upper 40s and low 50s, reaching the mid-50s southwest of Rockford. A brisk east wind kept a little chill in the air throughout the day, and has now helped to cool temperatures down quite a bit Wednesday evening.

Light rain and snow showers (yes, still blue showing up on radar) were present on the radar, but very little of that was actually reaching the ground. That's because the east wind not only kept temperatures on the cooler side, it also provided enough dry air to allow whatever was falling from the clouds to evaporate before reaching the surface.

Moisture, however, has been increasing through the evening and we are now beginning to see those showers move in from the west. Light showers are expected to continue throughout the evening and night, and there could even be a few snowflakes mixed in from time to time; no accumulation is expected.

High pressure to the north will keep winds from the east early Thursday before shifting a little to the southeast Thursday afternoon and night. A stationary boundary draped across central Illinois and stretching west/northwest into Nebraska will remain parked well to our southwest, but provide just enough of a focus for scattered showers throughout the afternoon Thursday. These showers shouldn't be too widespread, but a few steadier downpours are possible.

The boundary gets pushed a little further to the south Friday before being pulled north as a warm front Friday night and Saturday. This will be when the next wave of rain is expected to move in. Instability will also increase, especially during the day Saturday, and depending on where exactly the warm front rests Saturday afternoon, the risk for a few stronger storms could be present very close to the Stateline. A cold front moves in Sunday, settling to the south Sunday afternoon. There remains a small risk for a few showers, especially over southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, during the afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to remain below average, but could briefly warm above Saturday with the warm front. Highs Thursday will only reach the low 50s, low 60s for Friday and then remain in the upper 50s and low 60s into next week.  

Cloud cover increases Wednesday afternoon, temperatures stay cool

Clear skies and light winds allowed temperatures to drop down to freezing level or below it in the Stateline Tuesday night. Thanks to the cold temperatures, we had reports of some frost on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Cloud cover increased Tuesday afternoon, but we had sunshine to start off the day. Despite the morning sunshine, temperatures were in the 30s and wind chills were even a few degrees cooler than the air temperature. Highs across the Stateline have reached the upper 40s/lower 50s. We now have an easterly wind that’s coming off of Lake Michigan between 10-20mph with gusts slightly stronger. Temperatures will fall into the mid to lower 30s Wednesday night. 

We could see a few sprinkles and snowflakes Wednesday night, but better chances for widespread rain will come towards the end of the week and into the weekend. A few thunderstorms are also possible with the rising temperatures Friday night and Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting areas southwest of the Stateline, parts of southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas, for the greatest threat of severe weather Friday and Friday night. 

Temperatures will stay below average Thursday with highs only reaching the lower 50s. Fortunately if you enjoy warmer weather, temperatures will climb a little bit closer to average, around the 60 degree mark, Friday and for the weekend.

Cloudier Wednesday, Showers More Likely Thursday

Cold April:

It goes without saying that spring has been on quite the vacation during the month of April, In fact, 18 of April's 26 days at the Rockford International Airport has registered a below-average high, leaving us with an average monthly high of 54.9°. 

To compare, that sits roughly 4° below average. Despite plenty of sun on Tuesday, an organized northwest wind kept high temperatures in the lower 50s. As I mentioned in previous post, it does seem like were on track to hold onto this below-average pattern into the beginning of May. 

Cloudier Wednesday:

As for our Wednesday, the day kicks off with another Freeze Warning. This time, it's for all of our counties in northern Illinois until 8AM. While temperatures will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s, the lighter winds will at least help with our wind chills numbers.

The best chance to get in on some sunshine will be early on in the day as clouds are expected to increase. Along with the cloud cover does come a chance for a late-day sprinkle/shower, but nothing too significant. Winds today will be coming off of Lake Michigan, allowing cooler air to spill across the region. As of a result, high temperatures for most will struggle to make it out of the 40s. We keep the cloud cover overnight, as well as the chance for a passing shower or two. Temperatures are expected to fall in the low 30s by sunrise Thursday.

Showers Return Thursday:

A weak disturbance sliding in tomorrow will bring a better opportunity for showers. Tomorrow won't be an all-out washout as breaks in the activity are likely. However, shower chances are to increase again during the second half of the day. 

This activity, much like that to be witnessed Wednesday night into early Thursday, will be quite light. Drier conditions are expected to move in for the end of the work week, with highs climbing closer to normal in the lower 60s. 60s will be the name of the game into the weekend, with rain chances being best during the day on Saturday. 

Sunshine returns Tuesday afternoon

The National Weather Service has issued another Freeze Warning for Northern Illinois beginning at midnight, lasting until 7am Wednesday. Temperature are forecast to fall into the upper 20s/lower 30s Tuesday night.

Cloud cover was thick Tuesday morning keeping temperatures cool, but with the return of sunshine most have warmed into the upper 40s. Despite the afternoon sunshine, breezy northwest winds have kept wind chills a few degrees cooler than the actual air temperature .

The forecast high for Tuesday will be 51 degrees in Rockford, but under a mostly clear sky temperatures will fall quickly once the sun sets, allowing the potential for some frost to form overnight. Make sure to bring any potted plants indoors or cover up anything outside that may be sensitive to freezing temperatures. Winds will increase out of the northwest up to 35mph Tuesday afternoon. 

The next chance for rain looks to come Wednesday, but the better chance for widespread rain looks to hold off until the end of the week and weekend. Temperatures will rise closer to average after we get through the next few days.

Sunshine Returns, Cool Pattern Persists

Remaining Cool:

Even though it was windy this past weekend, we got in on a little taste of summer with high temps peaking in the 70s and 80s. However, a pair of strong cold fronts brought us back to reality as highs yesterday barely made it out of the 40s. To compare, Monday's high of 50-degrees is typically what we feel in late-March, not as we're jumping into May. More of the same can be expected moving forward as this cooler-than-average pattern is set to last into weeks end. 

Temperatures to start will all depend on how quick last night's cloud cover is to clear the region. If we are able to clear before sunrise, I could see temperatures falling into the low 30s. 

However, if we don't manage to clear out, morning lows will only be able to fall into the mid to upper 30s. Regardless of how far down we go into the 30s, you're going to want to put on an extra layer or two before you head out the door. 

Clearing skies is the name of the game for Tuesday as an area of high pressure settles over the midsection of the United States. Sunglasses will also come in handy, especially for those heading to lunch or heading home late today as a good amount of sun is expected this afternoon. Despite the increase in sunshine, winds will become breezy out of the west-northwest, limiting highs to the lower 50s.

Rain Chances Ahead:

Following a quiet evening, clouds will increase late in the night, resulting in a more cloudy Wednesday. With winds coming off of Lake Michigan, highs will struggle to get out of the 40s. 

While Wednesday does provide an opportunity for a few sprinkles and light afternoon showers, a better shot at rain arrives Thursday. Temperatures finally climb closer to average by Friday and the weekend, peaking in the lower 60s. However, our weather pattern remains quite active as rain chances extend into the weekend.

Freeze warning issued Monday night

 

A FREEZE WARNING has been issued for northern Illinois beginning at Midnight Monday night, lasting through 7am Tuesday as temperatures are forecast to fall close to, or slightly below, freezing Tuesday morning.

Cloud cover has been rather thick throughout much of Monday afternoon limiting just how warm temperatures were able to rise. Officially the high temperature made it to 50 degrees in Rockford, but that was achieved earlier in the day. As clouds thickened and wind speeds increased, temperatures dropped back into the 40s and currently sit in the low to mid 40s, with a few upper 30s across NW Illinois. Winds have been rather blustery, gusting to around 30 mph at times throughout the day. While the wind gusts will calm through the evening, sustained winds will remain between 5-15 mph, pushing wind chills Tuesday morning down into the 20s.

How far temperatures fall Monday night will depend on just how quickly the cloud cover clears from the Stateline. While there have been some pockets and holes in the generally cloudy afternoon sky, cloud cover is still fairly thick and expansive back over eastern Iowa and Minnesota. And with a little more of a reinforcement of cold air Monday evening, the clouds may stick around through much of the night. If that occurs, temperatures won't get quite as cold and could remain a few degrees above freezing. If, however, clouds clear and there is a few hour window of mostly clear skies then widespread temperatures at, or slightly below, freezing can be expected Tuesday morning.

Frost Monday night shouldn't be too much of an issue as winds remain elevated through Tuesday morning. Frost may become a higher concern, though, Tuesday night into Wednesday with high pressure overhead, mostly clear skies and a much lighter wind. Cloud cover is expected to increase, though, by Wednesday morning.

For tonight, you'll want to make sure you cover any vegetation that may be sensitive to the cold to eliminate the risk of it freezing. And you'll likely need to cover your plants again Tuesday night with the risk for frost Wednesday morning. This late Spring freeze is actually pretty close to when, on average, northern Illinois typically experiences it last Spring freeze; usually within the last week, or so, of April. The earliest Spring freeze occurred back in 2017 on April 7th and the latest was in 1992 on May 27th!  

Rain and Gusty Winds Return Wednesday, Drying Out for Thursday

Wednesday's Rain:

Tuesday not only featured plenty of sunshine, but also an improvement in the temperature department as most of our local airports registered highs in the lower 50s. With the same area of high pressure in control this morning, our Wednesday is set to kick off on a dry and cloudy note. However, it'll be important to have an umbrella on hand as rain chances are set to return as early as mid-day.

Forecast models show the chance for a few widely-scattered showers arriving by mid-day. As we inch closer towards the evening commute, a surge of moisture will result in a more widespread and steadier rainfall. While a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question, there’s fortunately no severe weather risk with this round of rainfall. 

However, a few heavy downpours are will be possible.Tagging along with today's rain chances will be a gusty southeasterly wind. Winds this afternoon and evening could approach 35 to 40 mph, making for bumpy travel for some. Chances will more than likely continue into the first half of tonight, with rain tapering off during the early stages of Thursday. Highs in the lower 50s today will only cool into the lower 40s by Thursday morning. 

Warmer, Drier Thursday:

Despite the passage of a cold front early in the morning, temperatures by Thursday afternoon will still end up considerably warmer. Under a partly sunny sky, highs will peak in the upper 60s. A surge of moisture will place out ahead of a warm front, likely leading to a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight. 

The active pattern is expected to continue into the weekend, and most likely with another chance for showers and storms by Saturday night, and a stormy Sunday appears a good bet as well. But guess what... the placement of the warm front Saturday will shift our winds to the southwest, which may bring us our first 80-degree day since early October of last year!

Cold & Windy Monday, Sunshine Returns Tuesday

Light Snow Ending:

First off, I hope everyone had a wonderful and safe Easter/Passover holiday. We begin the work week with a bit of light snow as a weak disturbance slides across the Upper Midwest. 

Fortunately for those whose morning routine takes them out the door before sunrise, road temperatures are a bit warm for impacts to occur. However, be mindful of the possibility for a slick or two if traveling over elevated surfaces. Clouds are expected to hang tight for much of Monday. There will still be enough instability in the atmosphere during the afternoon to support the several widely scattered showers. Nothing too significant as much of what passes through will be light in nature. 

Cold & Windy PM:

Of course, this unsettled and gloomy forecast wouldn't be complete without the addition of a gusty afternoon wind. Wind throughout the day will primarily be out of the west-northwest, gusting up to 30-35 mph. This will not only place our high temps back in the low 40s, but wind chills will struggle to make it out of the 20s. In other words, It'll be best to keep that heavier coat with you. Aside from a leftover snow shower or two, tonight remains dry with low temperatures falling into the low 30s. 

Dry Tuesday:

Tuesday is set to begin with some cloud cover. But as an area of high pressure dives into the Upper Midwest, tomorrow morning's cloud cover will give way to plenty of afternoon sun by mid-day. Despite the sunshine, temperatures remain on the chilly side, topping out in the low 50s. 

Mainly due to the wind which looks to remain out of the northwesterly direction. Fortunately, winds on Tuesday won't nearly be as strong as the wind that will be felt this afternoon. For those looking for warmer temperatures, look no further as all signs point to a big-time warm up by the end of the week and the weekend. 

Record low temperature reached Sunday morning; Snow Sunday night

 

Temperatures Sunday morning fell within record territory in Rockford, dropping down to 22 degrees and breaking the previous record for April 17th which was 24 degrees set back in 1983.

High pressure settling overhead late Saturday night and early Sunday morning caused the blustery winds from earlier in the day to calm. Skies were able to clear out from some of the cloud cover Saturday evening, setting the stage for temperatures to tumble through the night. Areas of frost were even reported.

Following a cold start to the morning, afternoon highs didn't warm much Sunday only reaching the mid 40s during the afternoon. The clear sky was quick to fade away as cloud cover increased during the afternoon and evening. No record low temperatures Sunday night, but the risk for some slushy accumulating snow is possible.

Low pressure spinning through the northern Plains Sunday evening will draw a cold/occluded front

through the Stateline early Monday morning. Ahead of the front snow, some falling fairly heavy, has been occurring over much of central Iowa and northeast Missouri. Precipitation chances are expected to increase as the front nears, possibly falling as a very light rain before switching over to snow. This transition would be quick once it occurs and the snow could fall heavily for a few hour window during the overnight. While the warm surface temperatures should limit any accumulations on main roads, slushy accumulations are possible on grassy and elevated surfaces. And if the snow fall fast enough, it may be possible that some of the slush could briefly accumulate on some of the roads.

Most of the snow will wrapping up by sunrise Monday morning, however, drizzle and freezing drizzle may occur due to surface temperatures hoovering very close to 32 degrees. Scattered rain/snow showers are then expected during the afternoon Monday as winds pick up from the northwest, gusting to 35 mph. High temperatures Monday will only reach the low to mid 40s.

Cloudy Friday, Sunshine Kicks Off Easter Weekend

Recapping Thursday's Wind:

Birds were flying sideways, and many loose objects were being blown around thanks to the blustery conditions Thursday afternoon. Most, if not all of our local airports registered a peak wind gust between 45-55 mph. 

The top wind report coming in from the Rockford Airport at 54 mph, followed by Galena with a 52 mph gust. Although we do keep a decent breeze over the holiday weekend, winds won't nearly be as strong as what was felt on Thursday. Tagging along with the wind is literally a mixed basket of everything, including sunshine, cooler-than-average temperatures, and the potential for a few snowflakes (say what???).

Cloudy, Cool, Friday:

The passage of a secondary cold front will bring the chance for a few sprinkles, or even a flurry or two to kick off this Friday. As the front continues to sink southward, our chances will quickly come to an end, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky. Although not a strong, winds will still be capable of gusting up to 25 to 30 mph, especially during the late-morning and early-afternoon hours. Highs will hover around the 50-degree mark once again. Skies will gradually clear overnight, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s.

Easter Weekend:

Winds change to the northwest on Saturday, which will bring our high temperatures down by a few degrees. Highs will peak in the upper 40s under a mix of clouds and sunshine. With the chilly wind around the area, wind chills will likely be stuck in the 30s. So if you plan to be outside, make sure to have a jacket or a sweatshirt nearby.

The dry conditions from Saturday look to carry on into the first half of Easter Sunday. A weak system sliding to the north of the area will help clouds increase into the afternoon, with a few light rain showers moving in shortly after. Temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees below-average, with highs for most topping out in the upper 40s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s by Monday morning, allowing for a few snowflakes to mix in before conditions dry out. 

Peak wind gusts from Thursday afternoon

 

Winds were strong Thursday afternoon, gusting at times to nearly 55 mph. There were also reports of sporadic wind damage, but mostly in the suburbs of Chicago and up north in southern Wisconsin. Locally, peak wind gusts ranged between 45-55 mph but have come down quite a bit now that the sun has set.

Strong low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south, along with very strong jet stream winds, were why wind speeds were as high as they were Thursday afternoon. Wind is caused by the difference in pressure in the atmosphere, as the atmosphere tries to balance itself out. The more the pressure difference is between low and high pressure, the stronger the wind will be.

We also had a very strong upper and mid-level jet roaring through the Midwest. The sunshine early in the day was enough to heat our atmosphere, just like a pot of water on a stove, causing the air in the atmosphere to mix (bowling pot of water). That mixing in the atmosphere was able to transfer some of the stronger winds gusts from up above, down to the surface. As the sun set Thursday evening, the wind speeds were quick to decrease (just like when you turn the stove off and the water begins to stop boiling).

West/southwest winds will increase once again Friday afternoon, but won't be nearly as strong as what they were Thursday. Peak wind gusts will reach 30 mph for most during the day.