Despite a Cloudy Halloween, Weather Cooperates For Trick Or Treating

Halloween History:

I know a lot of you don't like to remember, but it was on this day three years ago where we witnessed the snowiest Halloween on record. 

From start to finish, the Rockford International Airport picked up a whopping 3.1" of snow, crushing the previous record of 0.1" from 2014. Fortunately, snow is NOT in the forecast for this year's edition of the spooky holiday. In fact, most of the day remains dry, but underneath a great deal of cloud cover.  

Trick Or Treat Forecast:

Thanks to an area of low pressure sliding through the southern half of the State, cloud cover will be hard to budge for much of Halloween. Along with today's thick cloud cover does come the potential for a passing shower or two, mainly early in the morning and for those who live south of I-88. 

As this storm system pulls away, clouds should begin to break apart late in the afternoon, allowing some sun to mix through. This should be enough to bring temperatures back into the 60s for the 4th day in a row. Normally, high temperatures are in the lower 50s for the end of October-early November time frame. As far as trick-or-treating is concerned, I have some GREAT news. The weather looks to cooperate this year as skies look to slowly clear throughout the evening and into early tonight.

Above average trend continues into November

 

The return of above average warmth can be expected not only for the weekend, but also next week. Temperatures the last couple of days settled in the low to mid 50s, but the 60s are soon to return. In fact, the forecast high for Friday is 61 degrees. The warmth will continue to spread through the region Saturday, as well as into the beginning of November.

Cloud cover remains in place Thursday night as temperatures slowly fall through the upper 40s. Under a mostly cloudy sky, overnight lows will dip into the mid 30s. Winds remain light once again, but the increase in cloud cover should limit the development of any frost. Patchy fog, however, is possible where the clouds are thinner. Winds remain light from the southeast Friday giving temperatures a little boost into the upper 50s and low 60s.

Southerly winds will continue for the start of the weekend bringing temperatures into the middle 60s Saturday. Skies remain mostly clear Saturday afternoon but an area of low pressure lifting north from Texas will cause clouds to increase Saturday night, into Sunday. A very light area of precipitation will lift north with the low giving us a low chance for precipitation Sunday afternoon, especially for areas southeast of Rockford. Highs on Sunday remain above average, in the low 60s, but slightly below Saturday's high.   

Clouds will clear just in time for Halloween festivities with afternoon temperatures warming into the low to mid 60s. The warmth will continue to grow beyond Monday, reaching the middle to upper 60s by the middle of next week. Our pattern will remain warm for the start of November but could flip again following the first week and a half into the month. 

Temperatures Remain Mild Ahead of the Halloween Weekend

More Sunshine Ahead:

After a few cloudy days, the Stateline was able to enjoy wall-to-wall sunshine on Wednesday. Despite a northwest wind in place, temperatures still managed to peak around seasonable levels. More of the same is on tap for our "Friday Eve", with a gradual warm-up occurring into the weekend. Thursday kicks off with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Chilly enough for not only that thick winter coat but also for the development of frost. 

The same area of high pressure that brought the vast amount of sun yesterday will be positioned to our east, resulting in a wind shift to the southeast. This slightly warmer wind, along with filtered sunshine, will bring our high temperatures up a few degrees, with most landing in the upper 50s.

This tranquil weather pattern last into Friday and Saturday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 60s. All in all, a pleasant stretch to kick off the Halloween weekend. As we've been hinting at however for the past few days, a weak storm system lifting in from the southern plains will bring a bit more cloud cover to the area Sunday. With the cloud cover will be just enough moisture for a passing shower or two late Sunday into the early stages of Halloween.  

Daylight Saving Time:

Fortunately, the shower chance for Monday comes to a closer pretty early, with skies turning partly cloudy for the afternoon. Highs look to remain in the lower 60s Temperatures by the time trick-or-treating begins will be in the upper 40s and low 50s, so may need an extra layer. 

Not only is the Halloween fast approaching, but also the time in which we turn back the clocks is coming up quick. Yes folks. You heard me correctly. The countdown in which daylight saving time comes to an end is down to 10 days. When that happens, our sunset times will fall back an hour, landing closer to 4:30 by mid-November. Sunset times don't start getting later until the day after the Winter Solstice. 

Patchy frost and fog possible Thursday morning

 

Clear skies and light winds will cause temperatures to fall quickly as the sun sets Wednesday evening. Overnight lows will dip into the low 30s, warming into the middle and upper 50s Thursday afternoon.

Patchy frost and fog are possible, especially in some of the low-lying areas and river valleys, in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This could reduce visibility for some Thursday morning, but widespread fog isn't expected.

Cloud cover will be on the increase through the morning turning skies partly cloudy for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Elongated Dry Spell Follows Tuesday's Rainfall

Tuesday's Rain:

Yesterday's rainfall was welcomed with open arms given the fact that a portion of the Stateline is now reporting abnormally dry conditions. Overall, rainfall totals for most of our local airports landed in the .25"-.75" range, with DeKalb coming in with the highest total of .81". While a few showers did linger into the early hours of Wednesday, this event looks to fully come to a close before sunrise, with an elongated dry spell to follow. 

Dry Moving Forward:

Behind yesterday's rain-maker is an area of high pressure that aims to keep our skies quiet for the remainder of the work week. High temperatures during this stretch look to remain either near or above late-October standards, with low 60s starting Friday. In fact, our next rain chance doesn't look to slide into the forecast until late in the weekend into early next week. Yes, this will be something we'll need to slightly keep an eye on for Halloween. 

Halloween Sneak Peek:

From what guidance showed this morning, this weak and rather disorganized storm system looks to make it's way out during the first half of Monday. Hence why I think that the best chance for a passing shower or two will be during the morning hours. Otherwise, expect a dry and partly cloudy afternoon and evening with highs landing on either side of the 60-degree mark. November looks to begin on a very mild note as a rather potent southwest wind brings temperatures back near that 70-degree mark.

Gusty winds Tuesday evening following back edge of the rain

 

A steady rain continues to fall Tuesday evening across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, but the back edge of the rain is now lifting into southern Whiteside and Lee counties. Skies are dry in central Illinois, but additional moisture and rain will continue to lift north through the late evening. The rain is expected to last through the overnight, coming to an end before sunrise Wednesday.

Winds have been gusty from the north Tuesday

afternoon, but an increasing wind is possible over the next hour or two, especially for those in Whiteside, Lee and DeKalb counties. Winds have increased behind the rain over west-central Illinois with a wake low (mini low-pressure system). This has caused a sustained wind of 35-45 mph, with a few wind gusts over 50 mph. There was a report of some wind damage around Macomb, IL with gusts of 55 mph.

The gusty winds won't last, if they do occur, but don't be surprised if when the showers end the wind picks up.  

Very Wet Tuesday Ahead, Temperatures Tumble To Follow

Back To Reality:

Well as that popular saying goes "all good things must come to an end at some point". Mother nature spoiled us with an unseasonably warm 4-day stretch that also featured quite a bit of suns. 

The only flaw that I can think of was the rather gusty wind we saw over that stretch. But you really couldn't ask for a better forecast in late-October. However, today's cold front will bring the complete opposite as much of our Tuesday will be wet and stuck in the 50s. In other words, a good day to be lazy!

Rainy Tuesday:

Before heading out the door today, make sure to have the rain gear with you. Steady rain is likely going to fall for much of the day, and it could fall heavy at times. While the potential for severe weather is out of the question, a few rumbles of thunder will also be possible. 

Behind said cold front, winds will turn more out of the north and northwest, resulting in a MUCH cooler afternoon. Highs look to be observed early in the day, with temperatures tumbling into the afternoon. Forecast models then show rain continuing for much of the evening, with today's event wrapping up shortly after midnight tonight. From start to finish, expect rainfall amounts to be in the .5" to 1.0" range, with isolated 1.5" totals (especially those who live to the south and southeast of Rockford). 

Sunshine To Follow:

As the low ejects into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, high pressure will slowly take control of the Midwest. While Wednesday does start off with decent amount of cloud cover, expect clouds to give way to sunshine by mid-day. Despite the sunshine however, a chilly northwest breeze will limit highs to the upper 50s. 

Thursday and Friday feature a similar forecast, with highs slowly climbing up to the 60-degree mark for week's end. It doesn't look like northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will see our next chance for rain until the late-Sunday/Halloween time frame. So until then, we can enjoy the sunshine and whatever fall colors remain after today's rain!

Highest rainfall totals in over a month expected Tuesday

 

The dry skies and warmth will be coming to an end late Monday night as a rather strong cold front moves across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Skies have been mostly cloudy for much of Monday afternoon, but despite that temperatures were still able to warm into the middle 70s thanks to the gusty southerly winds. Those winds are expected to continue Monday night and Tuesday but turn to the northwest Tuesday afternoon, bringing temperatures down into the 50s.

Skies remain cloudy Monday evening as showers quickly lift north through Iowa and into the Upper Midwest. Rain chances locally will increase between 8pm and 10pm, overspreading most of the region by Tuesday morning. A steady, and at times heavy, rain is expected throughout the day before coming to an end Tuesday night.

Rainfall totals are expected to reach over one inch area wide, with a few locations possibly nearing an inch and a half. This would be the highest rainfall amount the Stateline has experienced in over a month, when 0.90 inches fell on September 12th and 4.46 inches on the 11th. Flooding is not expected given the dry conditions leading up to Tuesday's rain, however, the leaves scattered around could clog storm drains and gutters if not cleared away. Take time to do that before the rain moves in Monday evening.

The rain will come to an end Wednesday with high pressure moving in. Temperatures will remain in the 50s through the end of the week.

Warm & Breezy Monday, Rain Likely Tuesday

Plenty of Wind:

The month of the year that is typically known for it's scares, freights. and treats has featured quite the wind over it's first 23 days. 

In fact, the Rockford International Airport has averaged a peak wind gust of 32.5 mph since October 12th, with two of those days registering a wind gust at or above 40 mph. Now, it goes without saying that the gusty wind that was present over the weekend played a huge factor into why we we're so unseasonably warm and summer-like. This very mild trend looks to stick around for one more day before strong cold front brings us back to reality for the remainder of the work week. 

Warm, Breezy Monday:

Behind a lifting warm front, winds will once again become rather breezy out of the south, with gusts ranging between 25-30 mph. 

Despite a mostly cloudy sky being present for much of our Monday, highs should have no issue peaking in the mid to upper 70s for the 4th day in a row. Then another round of rain showers looks to spark up ahead of our next cold front this evening, with chances ramping up overnight.

Rain into Tuesday:   

Forecast models bring in said cold front during the early stages of our Tuesday. The slow-moving nature of this frontal boundary will keep periods of steady rain around into Tuesday evening. While severe weather is highly unlikely, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. 

As it stands, it looks like the heavier totals will be displaced to our south and east closer to the secondary low. With that being said, I do think that totals could range from .5" to 1.0", with widely sporadic 1.5" totals. After Tuesday's rain comes to a close, high pressure takes control of our atmosphere for the remainder of the work week. Wednesday through Friday aims to be tranquil with high temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. 

Rain/thunder chances return Sunday night

 

It has been a warm and windy Fall weekend with temperatures climbing through the upper 70s and low 80s. Saturday's high in Rockford reached 80 degrees, we remained in the upper 70s Sunday. The warmth, and wind, will continue Sunday evening as a second warm front heads towards the Stateline. Overnight lows will remain in the low 60s, warmer than what the average high should be for the end of October.

The arrival of the warm front will also mean a chance

for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms have quickly developed across central and eastern Iowa, moving to the east and northeast. These are not expected to be severe, but gusty winds will continue through the evening. Severe thunderstorms remain a threat across the Plains and Upper Midwest where there are currently several severe thunderstorm warnings from South Dakota through Nebraska.

The rain and thunder will move in from the west after

9pm/10pm and continue through early Monday morning. Once the warm front passes the Stateline the threat for rain will decrease, leaving Monday morning and most of Monday afternoon dry, but cloudy. South winds will continue for much of Monday afternoon warming temperatures into the middle 70s. The chance for rain will return Monday night, and for most of Tuesday, as a cold front moves in from the west. A steady and cool rain can be expected during the afternoon Tuesday. 

Unseasonably Warm Sunday Ahead, Rain Arrives Late

Beautiful Saturday:

Well folks, we did it! Rockford, as well as many others across of the Stateline, saw temperatures soar into the low 80s Saturday afternoon. The perfect formula atmospherically was in place. Not only did we wall-to-wall sunshine, but we also had a rather gusty south to southwesterly wind. 

According to the National Weather Service, this was the first time since 1975 that Rockford has reached the 80° mark this late in the season. Normally, we witness our final 80° day earlier in the month. While we won't see that trend carry on for a 2nd day in a row, highs aim to remain well-above average into the beginning of next week.

Rain Arrives Late:

Sunday begins on a dry and warm note, with temps sitting in the upper 50s and low 60s. Much of the daylight hours remain dry. However, cloud cover is expected to increase as the day progresses, with our next rain chance not too far behind. 

During this time, winds will become rather strong out of the south and southeast, gusting up to 30-35 mph. The combination of the mixed sunshine and today's gusty wind will help temperatures climb back into the upper 70s, close to the 80-degree mark. Shortly after sunset, forecast models bring in a round of scattered showers along with the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Thankfully, atmospheric parameters will be extremely low for severe weather with tonight's chances.

Early Week Rainfall: 

A warm front sliding through early on Monday will help carry this unseasonably warm trend into the start of next week. Similar to today, expect highs to once again peak out in the mid to upper 70s. 

While guidance does keep most of Monday dry, a few isolate showers cannot be ruled out during the afternoon. It's Monday night into Tuesday morning where the best opportunity for rain lies as the associated cold front prepares to slide through. Overall, it looks like much of the area could end up between .25" to .75" of rain from this evening into the early portions of Tuesday. Along with this cold front does come another temperature swing as the cooler behind it will cool our highs back down into the 50s starting Tuesday. 

Elevated fire risk Saturday afternoon

 

Once again there is an elevated fire risk across northwest Illinois Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm, south to southwest winds increase, and relative humidity values drop. The combination of those factors, as well as cured agriculture fields, could cause any fire that develops to spread quickly. Fires may also be hard to contain in this type of environment.

Winds should diminish after sunset. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Even though we have dry conditions Saturday, farmers are urged to be cautious during harvest. 

Gorgeously Warm Weekend Ahead, Next Rain Chance Not Too Far Behind

Unseasonably Warm Friday:

I'll tell you what... I hope you were able to step outside Thursday as we saw huge improvements from the previous few days. With a warmer westerly to southwesterly wind in place, highs ended up about 10° to 20° warmer, with most of our spots landing in the lower 60s. 

But guess what? I have more great news. As we've been hinting at, yesterday's 60s was only the beginning of this warm and comfortable weather pattern that aims to carry on into the weekend. A warm front sliding through this morning will help continue the warming process by shifting our winds to the southwest. That, along with sun-filled skies will allow our temperature climb to peak in the low-to-mid 70s. 

Elevated Fire Risk:

It’ll also be a bit windy at times as those southwest winds aim to gust near 25-35mph. This combined with the very dry conditions as of late will elevate our fire risk for today and tomorrow. With that being said, please be mindful of any burning as any fire that is left without supervision will be capable of spreading rather quickly. Winds Saturday will not be as strong as today, but still a 25 mph wind is strong enough to spread any fires.

Weekend Warmth

And just when you thought it couldn't get warmer, temperatures both Saturday and Sunday look to end up closer to the 80-degree mark. Forecast models did paint a more sun-filled picture for Saturday, with a bit more cloud cover featured for the end of the weekend. While the daylight hours remain dry, our weather pattern turns more unsettled once we get into Sunday night. 

Early-Week Rain:

That is when we introduce our next chance for rain and even the possibility for a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Despite the wet weather that's slated for early next week, another warm front will allow temperatures to climb back into the low to possibly mid-70s Monday afternoon. Temperatures from there all depend on the timing of the associated cold front and the track of a secondary low around midweek.

Drought conditions expand across the Stateline

 

The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows that nearly 75% of the state of Illinois is consider abnormally dry, with moderate to severe drought conditions southwest of Chicago, and further downstate.

In Wisconsin the drought continues with nearly 60% of the state considered abnormally dry, with moderate to severe drought conditions across northern and western Wisconsin.

The month of October has only recorded 0.78 inches of precipitation, falling 0.93 inches below our month-to-date average. While we've managed to settle into a little bit of a drier pattern, the overall year-to-date precipitation remains in the positive, 2.59 inches above. Both September and August ended with a surplus in precipitation, so that has helped with our drier than normal conditions this month. Over the next week or two we may have a couple storm systems that bring us some rain, but there are no clear signals for either a surplus or deficit of rainfall in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. In the short-term, rain chances do return early next week. 

Weekend warmth comes with gusty winds

 

Temperatures Thursday afternoon warmed into the low 60s area wide, actually warming slightly *above* the average temperature for the 20th of October. The sunshine and warmth felt great considering temperatures the last three days didn't make it out of the 40s, and wind chills were in the 20s. High temperatures continue to climb through the weekend, warming into the mid and upper 70s (perhaps even a few 80 degrees readings).

This time of a year the warmth and wind typically go hand-in-hand, meaning our winds will increase going into the weekend. Peak wind gusts Friday could reach 35 mph, Saturday winds will reach 25 mph, and Sunday winds are expected to rise near 35 mph. Highs temperatures over the weekend warm into the middle and upper 70s! The gusty winds will be the result of a deepening low-pressure system moving through the Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend, before lifting into Canada early next week. Strong winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also contribute to the increasing surface wind.

The strong winds and warmth will last through Monday before a cold front moves in, bringing an end to the summer-like warmth next week. 

Goodbye 40s, Several Days in the 70s Ahead

Warmer Day Ahead:

Although today is FINALLY the day where we officially say goodbye to the early week chill, those heavier coats will be necessary early on. With skies clearing a bit overnight, temperatures once again have fallen into the upper 20s/low 30s. 

In a similar fashion to Wednesday, a sun-filled morning sky will give way to a few fair-weather cumulus clouds. That, along with today's westerly wind will help temperatures get out of the 40s and into the 50s. In fact, today's forecast high of 58° is much more typical of what we’d expect around the October 20th time frame. The same can be said for our overnight lows tonight. 

Warming Continues:

More sun is on tap for Friday and the weekend. But with winds being a bit breezy out of the southwest, highs will make the big jump from near 60° today to the low 70s Friday. Talk about a big difference in a work week's time huh? 

Now, it's not uncommon to see 70° weather in the forecast at this point in the fall season. According to the National Weather Service in Chicago, Rockford's last 70-degree day typically falls on October 26th. With that being said, all signs point to highs remaining in the 70s over the weekend and even into the beginning of next week. In fact, temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will land closer to the 80-degree mark than the 70-degree mark. 

Next Rain Chance:

Out of the weekend days, Sunday features more cloud cover as our next cold front approaches from the west-northwest. Ahead of this front, a round of showers aim to arrive Sunday night and may linger into a good portion of the day Monday. 

Still, temperatures Monday are expected reach the 70s for the fourth straight day. Severe potential locally at this point remains low for the Sunday-Monday time frame. However, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a 15% contour across portions of northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and western Iowa which is equivalent to a level 2 slight risk.

 

Rainfall during the month of October has been hard to come by, leaving us with only 0.78 inches of precipitation. Month-to-date average precipitation should be right around 1.6 inches. The deficit will continue to grow as our skies remain dry through the week, but the chance for rain does return early next week.

We'll continue to see a few clouds dot the skies Wednesday evening and overnight as an upper-level disturbance moves in from the north and northwest. Given how dry the atmosphere currently is, no precipitation is expected. Temperatures will fall to around 30 degrees, rising into the upper 50s Thursday afternoon.

High pressure moving through the Gulf will keep moisture pretty limited through the weekend, but it does increase as a stronger low develops out west. This low will draw up quite a bit moisture late Sunday and Monday of next week. As it does, the chance for rain will also increase - with even a few thunderstorms possible.

Strong to severe storms are possible throughout the Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon and

evening, but that risk remains pretty limited locally, as a strong cold front sweeps through. Rain and thunder chances will increase as the front nears Monday afternoon. Depending on how fast the cold front passes through the rain showers may linger into Tuesday with temperatures dropping back into the low and mid 50s.

Chilly Wednesday, Warming Trend Commences Thursday

Long Windy Stretch:

Along with the cooler-than-average temperatures, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin has seen quite the wind since early last week. When you take the average of Rockford's peak wind gust over the last 8 days, it comes to a whopping 36.4 mph. 

Fortunately for us, winds will simmer down some today, but remain rather chilly out of the northwest. This will make for another cooler-than average day across the region before big-time improvements arrive for the upcoming weekend. 

Chilly Wednesday:

Before heading out the door this morning, make sure to pack on those layers. Temperatures early on are sitting in the upper 20s and low 30s, with wind chills registering in the low 20s. From there, we'll see a similar temperature climb into the afternoon, with most landing just shy of 50°.

With an area of high pressure sitting over the central and southern plains, mixed sun can be expected from start to finish. Overnight, a few clouds remain present, with temperatures falling on either side of the 30-degree mark. The difference-maker however is the change in wind direction that occurs overnight. By the time we wake up Thursday morning, winds will be coming out of the southwest. This will help crank up the heat, bringing high temperatures back above-average for the late-week days and the weekend.

Upward Trend Commences:

Southwest winds and sunshine dominate much of the day Thursday, resulting in high temperatures closer to the 60-degree mark. We’ll warm even further into the weekend with highs in the low 70s stretching from Friday to Sunday. 

However, Sunday features an increase in cloud cover with rain chances being not too far behind. This all comes with our next cold front which will help carry rain chances into the start of next week. Another upper-level trough sliding into the western Great Lakes will slowly bring this mild stretch to an end, cooling down temperatures down into the middle of next week.

Tuesday & Wednesday Remain Chilly, Big Changes to Follow

Morning Chills:

Yesterday was a very winter-like day across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Not only did we see record cold, but a few of us got to see the first flakes of the 2022-2023 season. 

Officially, Rockford only climbed to 42°, breaking the previous record for coolest October 17th set back in 2002 (44°). In a similar fashion to Monday, you're going to want to layer up if your morning routine takes you out the door early. 

Continued Cold:

Temperatures to being the day have fallen into the upper 20s and low 30s. But with that robust northwesterly breeze still in place, wind chills out the door are sitting in the upper teens for some. 

BRRRR! Despite Tuesday featuring a little bit more sunshine than Monday, those chilly winds will limit our high temperatures to 40s once again. Wind chills, however, are to remain in the 30s for a majority of the daylight hours. Expect more of the same for Wednesday. However, we'll see a slight improvement in the wind department. With an area of high pressure sitting to our southwest, expect a little more sunshine with high temperatures just falling short of the 50-degree mark. 

Trending Upward:

It won't be until Thursday that a difference will be felt in the temperature department. Forecast models do show winds being more of the west, which will help drag in some of the warmer air that's been displace across the central plains. 

Under a mix of clouds and sun, high temperatures look to end up roughly 10° warmer than Wednesday. From there, all signs point to a significant warming trend that will place temperatures close to or around the 70-degree mark over the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Overnight lows gradually warm out of the 20s and into the 50s. If you're a big fan of warm weather like me, that's music to our ears!