Northern lights could be visible in the Stateline tonight

The sun has been rather active this week, releasing multiple CME's or coronal mass ejections. 

These blasts of electrically charged particles help make the northern lights visible from the poles to as far south as the mid-latitudes. 

One CME in particular was rather strong, hence why the Space Weather Prediction Center issued a G3 storm watch for tonight and Friday morning. 

G3 storms are described as “strong” on the SWPC's geomagnetic storm scale which consists of 5 categories (G1 through G5) . This would make the lights visible as far south as Pennsylvania, central Illinois, Iowa, and Oregon.

Of course, the two biggest questions are

1. When will this solar storm arrive?

2. Will cloud cover interfere? 

To answer the first question, this strong solar storm could arrive anytime between 6PM and midnight. The earlier it arrives, the better shot we here in northern Illinois have at seeing the lights. 

That's because a storm system lifting in from the southern plains will quickly blanket our skies with clouds by the time midnight arrives. If you can, travel north and find a spot that is away from city lights.

Wet snow, slick travel possible Friday morning

The warming trend that kicked off yesterday is set to carry on for one more day. However, all eyes are focused on the storm system currently sliding over the southwest portions of the lower 48. 

Ahead of this system, all remains dry. While sunshine won't be as abundant as it was on Wednesday, an organized southwesterly wind will give temperatures a nice boost into the mid 40s.

Precipitation from this upcoming system doesn't slide into the forecast until the pre-dawn hours Friday. At the start, expect a chilly rain. 

But as a northeasterly wind filters in cooler air, rain at times may mix with or even fully changeover to all wet snow around sunrise. Given the quick-moving nature of this system, expect precipitation chances to taper off by the mid-morning hours.

As far as accumulations are concerned a slushy inch or two can be expected, especially in a small corridor between I-88 and the IL/WI border. 

This may be enough for slick conditions to develop during the morning commute. So, if you plan to travel, allow for extra travel time and use caution. From there, conditions will dry out but stay mostly cloudy and breezy into the afternoon.

Forecast models then show a secondary round of rain and snow arriving Friday night. With slightly colder air in place, there’s a slightly higher chance of this round producing more snow than rain, especially along and north of Interstate 88.

In a similar fashion to the first round, expect accumulations to be minor. Whatever snow we do manage to see won't last long as temperatures remain mild over the weekend and into next week.

Chilly rain falls late Thursday, Wet snow possible Friday morning

 

After a couple quiet, but cold, late November days our weather pattern turns a little more active as we enter into the beginning of the December.

For the remainder of Wednesday evening skies will stay mostly clear as temperatures fall through the 30s, down into the mid-20s overnight. A little added moisture from some snow melting Wednesday afternoon could lead to patchy fog through the night as well. Thursday will begin with sunshine, but we will see a gradual increase in cloud cover during the afternoon and evening.

A rather active jet stream will move across the Plains Thursday as low pressure develops in northern Texas. This low will lift northeast, moving towards Missouri and central Illinois Friday morning. Moisture ahead of the low will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms from the Gulf, up through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas to the panhandle of Florida Thursday and Friday.

Over the last couple of days models have been lifting the northern edge of the moisture further north, impacting more of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. At the same time, a cold front in the Upper Midwest is forecast to move south through Wisconsin and northern Illinois Thursday afternoon. Colder air behind the front will settle into the region Friday morning. As the moisture interacts with the colder air aloft a period of a rain/snow mix will be possible, along with the potential for wet, slushy snow shortly after sunrise Friday.

Some accumulating snow may occur, especially south of the state line, and could be enough to cause some travel issues Friday morning. It's a tricky forecast, to say the least, and one you should pay attention to over the next 24 hours! Chances are high that at least an inch of snow will occur, but trends for amounts more than an inch are beginning to go up. 

Following Friday morning another chance for a rain/snow mix will occur Friday evening/night, then again into the weekend.   

Lake effect event leaves behind one to three feet in Upstate New York

And just like that, the first significant lake effect snow event is winding down. In its wake, 1' to 3' of snow in portions of upstate New York. 

The highest amounts occurred east of Lake Ontario in the Tug Hill Plateau region where measurements fell in the 20" to 30" range.

To compare, Rockford's highest snowfall total on record is 16.3" back on January 6-7, 1918. 

Again, because the Stateline is positioned on the western side of Lake Michigan, we don't deal with lake effect snow all that much. It would take a cold northeasterly wind for metros like Rockford Chicago and Milwaukee to get in on lake effect snow!

Bitter cold exits, next system arrives late Thursday

Below Average Streak:

Yesterday's bone-chilling cold left us with the coldest afternoon since the first week of February. 

Officially, the Rockford Airport peaked at 21°, marking the 5th consecutive day where temperatures have ended up below average. Fortunately, we say goodbye and good riddance to this cold Canadian air as temperatures to round out November climb back to near seasonable levels.

Not as cold today:

A lingering chill kicks off our Wednesday as temperatures out the door will be sitting in the upper teens and low 20s. On the backside of a warm front, winds are expected to increase out of the west and southwest, gusting up to 20 mph. 

Tag-teaming with today's light breeze will be a decent amount of sunshine, both of which will help us get above freezing for the first time since Sunday afternoon. Overall, expect highs to peak in the upper 30s. However, today's breeze will also play a role into keeping wind chill values in the upper 20s. Partly cloudy skies stick around overnight, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s. Despite a cold front sweeping through, Thursday remains quiet and breezy with highs in the low 40s.

Next Storm System:

As of this morning, an upper-level disturbance is crashing into the California coastline. The energy associated with this wave will aid in the formation of our late-week storm system. 

One that will lift into Illinois from the southern plains, bringing the chance for a rain/snow mix Thursday night into Friday. Now, the northern extent of the precipitation shield all depends on how far north into Illinois this low tracks. But for the time being, it does seem that the more impactful precipitation will occur along and south of 20. Guidance does bring another small chance for a rain/snow mix Friday evening.

The first significant lake effect snow event of the season is underway

Areas in upstate New York are waking up to 12" to as much as 16" of snow this morning. Believe it or not, this all happened in a 24 hour span. 

How is this possible? Lake effect snow! 

Now because we are positioned on the western side of Lake Michigan, the Stateline doesn't deal with lake effect snow all that much. 

This happens when a northwesterly wind containing cold Canadian air flows over the open "warmer" waters of the Great Lakes. In doing so, air will rise and condense into intense snow showers. Intense enough to produce 2" to 3" of snow per hour. 

Lake-effect snow warnings remain in effect through early Wednesday for areas in extreme northwestern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. 

Some up in the Tug Hill Plateau, including Watertown, Fulton, and Syracuse, New York are also included in the lake effect snow warning! 

The snow-covered roads and significantly reduced visibility associated with these intense snow bands will make traveling extremely hazardous.

Single digit morning chills, improvements filter in Wednesday

Cold Stretch:

By the time this morning's newscast gets underway, Rockford's hourly streak of sitting below the freezing mark of 32° would hit 38 hours. And with the way the forecast is shaping up, we might as well tack on another 24 hours as this cold Canadian air mass sits firmly in place for our Tuesday.

 

Bitterly Cold Tuesday:

With skies clearing into sunrise, temperatures will fall into the upper single digits and lower teens. With a light northwesterly wind in place, wind chill values will be sitting closer to 0°. Bundle up!

Now, if we do manage to fall to 10°, this morning will go down as the coldest morning since Feb. 4 when we fell to 6°. Along with the bitter morning chill, the day also kicks off with plenty of sun. 

However, the expectation is for clouds to gather up during the afternoon, limiting any potential for us to effectively warm. In a similar fashion to Monday, expect highs to peak in the mid 20s. Wind chills, despite winds being more out of the southwest, are to wind up in the low teens. With clouds staying put overnight, temperatures won't end up as cold, landing near the 20-degree mark by sunrise.

Seasonable Wednesday:

Improvements filter in Wednesday as we'll end up on the backside of a warm front. Winds pick up a bit out of the west and southwest, at times gusting up to 20 mph. This, along with tomorrow's sunshine will help bring temperatures above freezing, landing in the low 40s by Wednesday afternoon.

Sub-zero wind chills likely Tuesday morning

 

Temperatures Monday afternoon have struggled to warm much above the mid-20s, falling nearly 20 degrees below average for the end of November. A blustery wind from the west has pushed wind chills into the single digits and low teens all afternoon.

We've been in and out of the cloud cover most of the afternoon and should continue to maintain a partly to mostly cloudy sky Monday evening. While not a great chance, a few flurries can't be ruled out through the evening given the amount of cold air in place.

High pressure will sit just west of the Mississippi River Tuesday morning. As it does, we'll hold on to a light breeze from the northwest around 5-10 mph. Air temperatures will fall into the upper single digits and low teens, but wind chills in a few locations could dip below zero for several hours Tuesday morning. Wind chills area wide will likely range from -5 degree to 5 degrees.

Cloud cover will be quick to move in Tuesday afternoon along the leading edge of warm air. Highs

Tuesday will remain in the mid-20s under increasing cloud cover. There remains a small chance for a passing flurry Tuesday night, but most will stay dry. Clouds will clear out Wednesday afternoon following a warm front, ending our winter-like chills - for now - with highs rising near 40 degrees.

Work week kicks off with coldest stretch since March

Unseasonably Cold:

Unseasonably cold air kicks off the new week. So much so that afternoon highs both Monday and Tuesday will end up being the coldest since March 18th, a whopping 254 days ago!

The reason for this week's unseasonably cold start, snow's high reflectivity rate and the chilly west to northwest wind that will be in place. 

Any warmth supplied by today's partial sunshine will be easily reflected back into space, resulting in mid 20s for afternoon highs. How much cooler is that compared to late-November standards? Well, our normal high is 41-degrees. So pretty dang cold. Skies gradually clear this evening, resulting in a steeper temperature drop overnight. Expect lows to fall into the lower teens, with wind chill values sitting at or below the 0-degree mark. 

Midweek Warm-Up:

Tuesday features more of the same chill as highs will be severely limited to the upper 20s. After a sun-filled start to the day, clouds will increase late, leaving us under a blanket of clouds into Tuesday night. 

This cloud cover though won't have much with it, leaving us dry into early Wednesday. However, it's during this time in which warmer air will be spilling in from the southwest U.S. 

Temperatures because of this will get a nice boost, climbing to seasonable-levels by Wednesday afternoon. Highs remain in the low 40s for Thursday. It's towards the early Friday time frame in which models introduce our next storm system. 

One that could bring a few rain showers to the area during the first half of Friday. The one uncertainty, the storms track. Overall, our weather pattern does seem to remain on the active side into the weekend as another system introduces itself late Saturday.

Icy conditions possible Sunday night following tumbling temperatures

 

Snowfall totals from Sunday ranged anywhere from 1-3 inches, with 1.5 inches recorded at the Rockford Airport. While not a significant amount of snow, it was enough to cause some slick conditions before temperatures warmed late Sunday morning.

We will continue to see a few flurries Sunday evening with the arrival of a strong cold front, but no additional accumulation is expected.

The snow that accumulated on roads Sunday morning did melt, leading to mainly wet road conditions during the afternoon. As the cold front comes through Sunday evening, temperatures will begin to fall as winds increase from the west and northwest. The wet roads may not have enough time to dry before temperatures fall and this could lead to areas of black ice overnight Sunday, into Monday morning.

As a result, icy conditions are possible Monday morning - especially on bridges, overpasses, and untreated surfaces. With this in mind, if the road looks wet in the morning it is very well possible that it is icy. Be sure to use caution while driving late Sunday night and Monday morning and remind new winter drivers of the risks of black ice. 

Weekend weather update: Light snow moves in Saturday night

 

Temperatures Saturday afternoon will warm into the middle 30s under mostly cloudy skies. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds light through the evening, but gusts will increase following a cold front Sunday evening. This will push temperatures down into the teens Monday morning, but wind chills into the single digits.

Skies will stay mostly cloudy through Saturday afternoon, although some peeks of sunshine may develop south of Rockford late morning. High temperatures will sit roughly 7-10 degrees below average (average high low 40s). Winds will remain light from the southwest around 5-10 mph.

Light snow has been showing up on radar over the last few hours, but an extremely dry air mass near the surface will keep the snow from reaching the ground until Saturday night. As moisture and forcing continue to increase from the west we will begin to see snow showers increase in both coverage and intensity. Light snow moves in after Midnight and will continue through most of Sunday morning. While the majority of the snow is expected to be light, there could be some bands of moderate snowfall west and southwest of I-39. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued just outside of the immediate viewing area from Davenport, IA through Missouri.

Snowfall totals will range between 1-2 inches area wide, but a few three-inch reports are possible, especially for some in Carroll, Whiteside, Ogle, and Lee counties. Untreated and elevated surfaces are likely to become slick with subfreezing temperatures Sunday morning. Drive with caution if you're out during that time. The highest snowfall rates will occur from 4am to 10am Sunday, tapering off to a few flurries through Noon. 

A strong cold front will arrive from the northwest Sunday afternoon which could bring a few additional light snow showers through the evening. No additional accumulation is expected. Northwest winds will increase behind the front, gusting to 30 mph through Monday morning. This will not only bring air temperatures down into the teens, but wind chills will fall into the single digits! Highs on Monday will only climb to 29 degrees for the afternoon.  

Single digit chills Friday morning

 Temperatures Thursday warmed into the mid-40s ahead of a strong cold front that moved through during the afternoon. Winds were quick to shift to the north, bringing temperatures down into the 20s Friday morning.

Breezy north winds have pushed wind chills for most in the low teens, but a few locations have fallen into the single digits. We may see a couple more locations briefly dip into the single digits before only climbing into the mid-20s this afternoon. Highs Friday will warm into the low to mid 30s, nearly ten degrees below average.

High pressure moving in from the Plains will keep our skies partly cloudy, but cloud cover increases overnight Friday into Saturday. Friday night temperatures will fall back into the 20s, warming only to the mid-30s Saturday afternoon.

Sun-filled Thanksgiving, chilly for Black Friday and Stroll on State

Turkey Day Forecast:

In a similar fashion to Wednesday, the weather will cooperate big-time for those traveling. Beautiful sun-filled skies kick off the Thanksgiving holiday, with a few clouds popping up for the afternoon. 

Behind a moisture-starved cold front, winds will turn to the north, becoming breezy in the process. Despite today's chilly wind, we can expect another seasonable afternoon with highs in the low 40s. 

Chilly Black Friday:

A strong high pressure system diving down from the Canadian prairies will help spell a dry but colder end to the holiday week. Come Friday morning, wind chills values will be sitting in the low teens, so Black Friday shoppers best dress in layers. Wind chills don't look to climb much from there as a steady northerly breeze remains in place. This will also limit afternoon highs to the low to mid 30s. Despite Friday's chill, the day will be spent under partial sunshine!

Stroll on State: 

Cloud cover will continue to increase into Saturday, resulting in a mostly cloudy to overcast day. High temperatures will remain chilly in the 30s, with wind chill values staying in the 20s.

For those heading to Stroll on State, dress in extra layers. A disturbance sliding into Illinois will bring our next chance for light snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this very moment, snowfall amounts look to stay under 1", but it will be cold enough for slick roads to develop. Keep an eye out for that. With temperatures climbing above freezing, any slushy spots should melt by the afternoon. Highs remain in the middle 30s.

Weather improves for holiday travelers, snow possible this weekend

Sun-filled Wednesday:

When you take into account Tuesday's rain/snow mess and gusty afternoon breeze, it was a more unsettled day for Thanksgiving travelers. 

With that storm system now out of the way, travelers won't have much to worry about moving forward as our weather pattern settles down. 

Last night's round of cloud cover is expected to exit the region by sunrise. This will make for plenty of sun for the remainder of our Thanksgiving Eve. That, along with a wind shift to the southwest will help temperatures climb into the low 40s once again. Which is seasonable. Skies are expected to stay mostly clear overnight, with lows falling on either side of the 30-degree mark. 

Thanksgiving Day:

A moisture-starved cold front will slide through the region early Thursday morning. 

The only component of the forecast this frontal passage impacts is the direction in which our winds will be blowing out of. Winds will be more out of the north and northeast, gusting up to 20 mph. 

Despite that, I'm thankful to say that more sunshine is in the forecast, which help bring temperatures back to seasonable levels. We aim to round out the holiday week with highs in the mid 30s as winds become more organized out of the north. Friday also features an upward trend in cloud cover.

Weekend Snow:

Highs remain in the 30s for the weekend. However, the bigger weather headline is the potential for snow late Saturday night into Sunday. 

Models continue to show a disturbance sliding out of the central plains and into Illinois by Sunday morning. In doing so, bringing the chance for flurries and light snow during that time. 

The one thing we'll have to keep an eye on is the track of this system as guidance trended a bit more south with it this morning. This would mean the highest potential for accumulations would stay south as well. Time will tell!

Quiet skies through Thanksgiving, Light snow possible this weekend

Clearing skies will take us through the majority of Tuesday evening but cloud cover will move back in after 10pm tonight, leading to mostly cloudy skies just before sunrise Wednesday. 

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon only warmed into the low 40s thanks to the abundance of cloud cover, but under a clear sky Tuesday evening temperatures will fall through the low 30s. There will still be a breeze from the northwest, around 10 mph, which will push wind chills in the 20s for the start of Wednesday.

A ridge of high pressure building in Wednesday afternoon will give us partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures, warming into the mid-40s during the afternoon. Dry conditions can be expected for both Wednesday and Thanksgiving, giving us a couple decent days of travel. There is a cold front that'll move through Thanksgiving morning, but the front will come through dry. After temperatures warm back into the 40s Thanksgiving a cooler air mass settles in Thursday night bringing overnight low temperatures back down into the 20s.

As clouds increase Friday high temperatures will only warm to the mid-30s during the afternoon. As many begin their travel home this weekend, we're keeping an eye on a storm system that could impact travel locally, especially Saturday night and Sunday.

While it is still several days away, forecast models are beginning to highlight the potential for some light snow moving in Saturday night and Sunday as

a storm system develops out west and moves into the Midwest. At this point (Tuesday evening) the system doesn't look to be anything too significant with regards to snow potential, but worth keeping an eye on as we are several days out. If your holiday plans have you traveling during that time, be sure to stay updated on the forecast as the light snow could slow you down a bit later this weekend.  

Rain/snow mix for Tuesday morning's commute, gusty winds continue

Rain/Snow Mix Early:

So far, Rockford has picked up 0.30" of rain. Believe it or not, this the most the airport has observed in nearly a month. Yes, it's been that dry. 

In fact, October 26th was the last time Rockford saw .25" or higher (0.48"). Scattered chances continue are set to continue into the morning commute. 

Cooler air wrapping around this morning's storm system will even bring the possibility, especially along and north of highway 20, for some wet snowflakes to mix in. Now, any snow that does manage to fall will not bring major impacts to your morning travels as air and ground temperatures are to remain above freezing. But just know if you plan to travel, roads will wet.

Rain will taper off before mid-day, leaving a mostly cloudy sky and a bit of a gusty wind for the afternoon. In a similar fashion to Monday, peak winds will land in the 25-30 mph range. 

However, today's wind will be more of out the north and northwest, leaving highs in the low 40s. Clouds sticks around for a good chunk of the night before clearing up Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will end up cooler, landing in the low 30s.

Turkey Day Forecast:

Thankfully, winds won't be as intense for holiday travelers Wednesday or Thanksgiving Day. In fact, both days will be dry, with Wednesday featuring a bit more sunshine than Thanksgiving. However, expect highs to land in the low 40s. 

Temperatures following a weak and dry cold front will cool into the 30s for Friday. 30s will the name of the game for the weekend as well.

Few snowflakes mixed in with rain showers Tuesday morning

 

The snow shouldn't be anything that'll impact the commute Tuesday morning, but don't be surprised if you see a rain/snow mix, or just a few snow showers around sunrise.

Cloudy skies and a brisk east wind Monday helped to keep temperatures in the middle to upper 40s most of the afternoon. Light rain has been showing up on radar, but not much of that has actually been able to reach the ground. That's because there is still quite a bit of dry air over the Great Lakes, due in part to the east wind, causing the showers to evaporate before reaching the surface.

Over time the atmosphere will become a little more saturated allowing the rain to reach the surface. This should occur within the next couple of hours. Any precipitation during that time will remain mostly scattered. But as moisture continues to increase and low pressure moves further into eastern Illinois we'll begin to see a steadier rainfall. This will occur after 10pm. The rain will continue for most of the night, wrapping up by late morning Tuesday.

Colder air moving in from the north and west may be just enough to allow for some snow to mix in with the rain early Tuesday. Some of the precipitation may even switchover to all snow during that time. Any impacts to the commute Tuesday morning are expected to remain minimal due to air and ground temperatures remaining above freezing. Most of the precipitation will be done by Tuesday afternoon but we will hang on to the cloud cover through early evening.  

Winds will pick up once again, gusting to around 30 mph from the north and northwest. Highs will warm into the low to mid-40s.