Warming up this week ahead of next cold front

 It was a much cooler day Sunday than Saturday, as temperatures dropped by as many as 40 degrees from one afternoon to the next! The influence of Canadian high pressure will work to keep things chilly but dry for Monday as temperatures return to the mid and upper 40s.

The next weather system arrives mid-week in the form of an elongated area of low pressure. Ahead of this will be another warmup with drier conditions. A few spotty showers may try to develop within the area of low pressure, but most of the week will be dry.

The bigger influence from that low pressure system is the swings up and down in temperatures for the week ahead. Prior to the system's cold front coming through, we will see temperatures climb into the 60s! But the next cool-down arrives behind the front, back to the 40s and low 50s to start next weekend.

The large majority of the next week will be dry, but a few showers may develop just ahead of an along the passing cold front between Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread precipitation may be possible South and East of the Stateline toward Central Illinois/Indiana, but our chances will only be scattered.

Warmth retreats following Sunday's cold front

 

The summer-like warmth was nice while it lasted, but as the old saying goes, "All good things must come to an end". The 70s and 80s we felt Friday and Saturday will be replaced by the 40s this afternoon. In fact, as of 6am temperatures are already starting to drop as the first of two cold fronts pass through the region.

Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the morning as temperatures slowly drop following the passage of a cold front. North winds will also increase, gusting close to 30 mph from time to time. We'll see an increase in moisture as the front passes through but limited on the overall rainfall today, with only a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch falling.

High pressure will move down the Plains Sunday evening, settling over the Upper Midwest Monday. This will push overnight lows down into the 20s with wind chills in the low 20s for many. There could even be a few spots that dip into the upper teens. Skies will remain mostly sunny Monday afternoon with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 40s.

Mild night ahead, sharp cool-down Sunday

 We have a new champion atop the leaderboard of warmest days this year! Today's high temperature in Rockford topped out at 79! Unfortunately, we don't have any days that will crack the top 5 over the next few days with a cold front passing overnight.

That's because of a very sharp drop in temperatures between Saturday and Sunday. An overnight cold front will bring a change by more than 30 degrees from one afternoon to the next. Sunday's high will only top out at 49, but that may likely be reached prior to 10AM.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will remain very mild in the 50s through early morning, keeping us very mild. But behind the front, temperatures will fall through the afternoon and evening, reaching the low 40s by sunset. This also comes with a strong North-Northeast wind gusting upwards of 25 mph at times. It will come as quite a chill compared to Saturday's nearly 80-degree mark!

A few pockets of light rain or drizzle may be possible from late-morning through afternoon, but any rainfall will not amount to much. Any locations that see rain will only see a few hundredths of an inch of rain at the most. High pressure slides in for Monday, clearing us out and keeping the chill around. But another push of mild air arrives mid-week with more 50s on the way!

Spring in full force: Northern Illinois aims for its warmest day yet

Daylight Increases:

As we move past the first day of spring, the Northern Hemisphere is now gaining daylight each day on our way toward the summer solstice - which is just 92 days away. From here on out, the sun climbs a little higher and stays a little longer, giving us those steadily lengthening days! 

  

Warmest Day of 2026:

Sunrise comes at 6:57AM today, with our sunset occurring at 7:09PM. Between both times, expect a good amount of sunshine paired with warm south to southwesterly breeze. That combination will help northern Illinois achieve it's warmest day of the year thus far, with afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s. This would also go down as Rockford's third 70-degree day of 2026 - all of which have occurred during the month of March. 

Quick to Cool:

With today's warm surge into the 70s, it's a great idea to take full advantage of the springlike weather while it's here. A strong cold front is on the way, and once it moves through, temperatures will be restricted to the 40s Sunday and also for Monday. Tagging along with said cold front will also be enough moisture to spark a few scattered rain showers.  

Warm start to the weekend, sharp cool down Sunday

 Friday was a very mild day in the Stateline, especially given the 6" of snowfall that came down just in the same week! The high temperature just 3 days ago was only in the low 20s, but we reached the low 70s Friday as nearly all of the snowfall has now melted.

And the warming trend continues at least for one more day, as we will see afternoon highs climb into the mid-70s by the afternoon. While not nearly a record, it will still be very warm for mid-March standards, about 25 degrees above average!

But what goes up must also come down. An early morning cold front will lead to a sharp cool-down for Sunday afternoon, as temperatures in a few spots may struggle to reach above 50 degrees. The warmest part of the day will be centered near or just before 12PM, with falling temperatures through the afternoon into the 40s and eventually 30s. This cold front will also produce the chance for a few spotty showers, but any rainfall we do see will not amount to much.

Enjoy the warmth of Saturday while it lasts, because Sunday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler by late afternoon's time. Southwesterly wind gusts near 25 mph will aid to bring the warmth of Saturday, but Sunday's Northerly wind will aid to cool things off just as quickly. The cool-down is short-lived, as we return to the 50s and above average temperatures as early as Tuesday.

Winter ends, spring begins… and the warmth just keeps going

First Day of Spring:

Today marks the first day of spring, and the new season officially arrives at 10:46AM. As we cross the vernal equinox, daylight and nighttime become nearly identical, and from here on out, we'll see the amount of daylight continue to grow. 

  

Warmth Continues:

Spring begins where winter left off, partly sunny with afternoon highs in the low 60s. Forecast models show a cold front slipping through late in the morning in to the early afternoon. We're not expecting precipitation with today's frontal passage, but it will shift our winds around. By the afternoon, winds turn to the north, and then to the northeast overnight. This could bring the possibility for fog by Saturday morning. 
 

This warm-up fortunately will carry on into the first weekend of spring. South to southwesterly winds on Saturday will give temperatures a huge boost, landing them in the upper 60s, close to 70°. By Sunday, a cold front moves in and shakes things up a bit, knocking temperatures back into the 50s and bringing a chance for a few showers throughout the day. Temperatures trend backwards briefly for the start of next week, landing in the upper 40s Monday.  

Look back: Long stretch of record heat for Rockford in March 2012

 

Who remembers the heat wave much of the region experienced during the month of March in 2012? I know I do. The heat began early in the season during the month of March which sent many farmers into their fields to begin planting. But the jumpstart on the spring and summer warmth didn't come with much rainfall. March ended up just below the monthly average for precipitation at 2.09 inches (average 2.40 inches), and below average for snowfall. We were able to gain some moisture back during the month of April, but it was all downhill from there with several months in a row that ended up below their monthly average. This eventually led to extreme drought conditions over much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin that lasted well into the Fall season.

During the month of March many high temperature records were broken in a stretch of nearly 8 consecutive days of record heat: March 15th-18th, and 20th-22nd. The only day that didn't achieve a record was on the 19th when the high temperature reached 77 degrees, one degree away from the record of 78 set back in 1921.

We won't end up with any record heat this upcoming weekend, but temperatures will feel more like early to mid-May, rather than late March. Highs on Friday will warm into the low 60s but we'll likely see a little more cloud cover during the afternoon, which could limit the overall temperature - especially to the north in Wisconsin. Winds will turn back to the southwest Saturday which will push highs close to 70 degrees for the afternoon.

Melting snow provides main source of soil moisture over the next week

 The recent warmth has aided significantly in melting the snow from the ground, with snow depth at the Rockford airport dropping to 1" as of Thursday afternoon. But unfortunately, that snow melt will be the primary source of soil moisture over the next week or so, with very little in the way of precipitation chances on the horizon.

The primary chance for any rain we have will come along a cold front Sunday afternoon, but even that does not come with much abundant moisture. Any rain showers we see will be relatively spotty in nature, with a good chance that parts or most of the area see no measurable rain at all.

This is not just the case locally but also across much of the country as well. The Weather Prediction Center highlights this well, showing zero precipitation across nearly the entire Central and Southwestern parts of the country. We only have that slim chance Sunday, but otherwise remain dry into the middle of next week.

That isn't great news for the Stateline which has already seen several dry months dating back to last fall. As of Thursday afternoon, soil moisture was quite dry across a large part of the Midwest, with nearly all in the Stateline under the 10th percentile of the moisture we should have. The dry spots also correlate with the latest drought monitor released today. Some moisture will soak in from recent snowmelt, but we will not see much precipitation add to those totals in the near term.

Temperatures warm just in time for spring's first weekend

Heat Alerts Out West:

Unseasonably and dangerous heat currently has a firm grip on the southwest United States. Cities from Los Angeles to Phoenix and Las Vegas are under Extreme Heat alerts as a strong high-pressure ridge, or "heat dome" has locked itself over the western U.S. 

  

Ridge Pushes East:

How is this relevant to our forecast?  The same dome of high pressure is expected to weaken and even push eastward over the coming days. This will help drive a noticeable warm up here at home, arriving just in time for the first weekend of spring. 

  

Temperature Trend:

Friday will be warm with highs in the upper 50s. We still have a minor uncertainty with Friday's warm up as we'll have to see how things trend with the timing of the first of two cold fronts. Behind said front, we then see surface flow turn to the south and southwest ahead of an even stronger frontal boundary. 

This, along with a decent amount of sun will allow temperatures to surge into the upper 60s Saturday afternoon. Sunday's warm up also depends on the timing of the cold front as one model (the European model) was quicker with the frontal passage. This displaced the milder air to our south, leaving afternoon temperatures in the 40s. However, the American model left some room for highs to briefly reach the 50s before cooling overnight into Monday. Next week starts off cooler with afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s.    

Why does snow melt so quickly in March?

 Recent snowfall has been quick to begin melting away especially with Wednesday's sunshine and afternoon highs pushing the upper 30s. But sunshine is not the only way to decrease the snow depth on the ground! Three main ways to melt away snow is through sunshine, sublimation, or latent heat release through higher humidity.

Heat from the sun is the most commonly thought of way to melt away snow, but this is especially true for later spring months. In December and January, the angle of the afternoon sun is much lower in the sky. While March and April feature a much higher sun angle, focusing more of the sun's radiation directly to the surface, which melts the snow faster even if the temperature were the same in March compared to January.

That was certainly evident Wednesday afternoon in the Stateline, with sunshine promoting rapid snow melt in Rochelle. Another way snow can disappear even when temperatures are not above freezing is through sublimation. That is when water molecules go straight from a solid state (snow and ice) into gaseous state (water vapor). This process is most common with ice cubes that you leave in the freezer for a long time. Even though the temperature in the freezer is never above freezing, the ice cubes can get smaller as individual water molecules turn straight into vapor and dissipate into the air.

Another way to melt snow is through latent heat release. That is when moisture from the air condenses onto snow, similar to how a cup of ice water "sweats" in the summertime. That process of condensation onto the icy surface leads to a release of latent heat, which cools the air around the snow but works to heat up the snowpack itself, only further melting it away. This is the main reason why snow can melt effectively even at night! When dew point temperatures are above freezing, the moisture in the air condenses onto the snow, melting it further!

We will have both the sunshine's radiation and a moist air mass over the next few days, so expect that recent snowpack to melt away rather quickly through the course of the weekend

Temperatures continue to climb following brief period of winter cold

 

We are beginning our climb out of the brief, but potent, chill we had the last couple of days which means spring-like warmth will soon return. For the rest of Wednesday evening, we'll hold on to the mainly clear sky before cloud cover moves back in later tonight. The increase in cloud cover is the result of an incoming upper-level disturbance from the northwest. We can see those clouds across the Upper Midwest and Plains, and few radar returns moving into northern Wisconsin.

While we may see a brief period of some light precipitation late tonight, it likely won't amount to much thanks to drier air we have down near the surface. Moisture increases aloft, which is why we'll see the increase in cloud cover tonight. But that moisture will be lacking the closer you are to the surface. This dry air will likely limit just how much precipitation, if any, reaches the ground. If we do end up seeing some light rainfall, we will have to keep a close eye on temperatures at the surface because they'll be very close to the freezing mark. However, I don't anticipate many impacts to the morning commute.

Temperatures will continue their climb through the rest of the week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds out west. This will bring several days of 90- and 100-degree heat to the Southwest. Closer to home we won't experience warmth quite that significant, but temperatures warming into the 60s - possibly back near 70 degrees - by the start of the weekend appear likely. The only 'fly in the ointment' would be any lingering fog or cloud cover due to the added low-level moisture from the recent snowmelt.

 

When does spring officially begin across northern Illinois

First Day of Spring:

We are progressing through what Tom calls the "belly of the beast" as winter is in it's final days, though it has been putting up quite a tough fight. The first day of spring is Friday. It officially begins at 10:46AM and that is the moment when the Earth's tilt allows the sun to shine directly over the equator.  

Amount of Daylight:

This is also the moment when daylight and nighttime are almost perfect balanced, marking the transition towards longer, warmer days across the Northern Hemisphere. After the equinox, our next astronomical milestone is the summer-solstice, also know as the longest day of the calendar year.  

  

Temperature Trend:

Milder air spills into the Stateline for the few days of spring, leaving us with 50s Friday, then closer to the 70-degree mark Saturday afternoon. Precipitation chances over this three day stretch will be highest on Sunday as that is when forecast models show a strong cold front pushing through.   

Light snow chances across northern Illinois taper off early

Scattered Snow Early:

Snow is still falling this morning as a weak storm system moves across the western Great Lakes. While totals have been minor, the snow that has fallen so far has been enough to leave roads in some counties partially covered. Those heading out early will need to give themself extra travel time. 

 

Snow chances should taper off before mid-morning, giving way to dry but partly cloudy conditions for the afternoon hours. The sunshine will give temperatures more of a boost than Tuesday, leaving afternoon highs just short of the 40-degree mark. 

 

  

Another Weak System:

Northwest flow continues to dominate the upper-level pattern, steering another weak disturbance in the direction of northern Illinois. Forecast models remain quite scattered with how much precipitation this system will produce, leaving us with just a chance for a few showers into Thursday morning. 

Light snow Tuesday night could create slippery travel for some

 

Clouds have filled back in Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of our next clipper system that'll pull a warm front through the area later tonight. As it does, a period of light snow is expected to develop moving in from west to east overnight.

Dry air initially at the surface - surface dew points are in the single digits - will limit any snow from reaching the surface during the evening. But as more moisture eventually begins to saturate the atmosphere, we should start to see the light snow fall. Totals won't be much and most will remain under two inches. Look for the snow to move sometime after 9pm, although a few flurries could arrive a little before that.

The snow will be wrapping up before sunrise Wednesday but there could be a brief period of some freezing drizzle that mixes in before it comes to an end. Even though snowfall amounts will remain minor, when combined with the cold temperatures overnight, and ice/slush already on the roads from Sunday/Monday, we are going to see those slick and icy conditions continue into Wednesday morning. There was quite a bit of black ice Tuesday morning, and I anticipate there to be similar issues for tomorrow morning.

Bitterly cold St. Patrick's Day with additional snow on the way

Hazardous Travel Lingers:

Travel impacts from the latest blizzard continue into our Tuesday morning. As of 4:00AM , roads in a few Stateline counties including Stephenson, Carroll, and DeKalb County remain completely covered in snow and ice, especially in open areas. If you're heading out, be sure to use extra caution. 

  

St. Patrick's Day:

If you plan to celebrate St. Patrick's Day even further, make sure to bundle up. The bitter cold settling in behind Monday's blizzard will make for a harsh start to the day, with wind chills hovering around 10°  below zero. Even by this afternoon, wind chills will only "improve" to about 10°, and high temperatures will struggle to reach the 20° mark. Cloud cover will gradually increase into the evening as our next storm system approaches from the northwest.

Snow Chances Return: 

Forecast models show this weaker system sliding in overnight tonight, bringing the chance for scattered snow showers ahead of Wednesday's morning commute. While this won't be a major storm or compare to Monday's blizzard, it will be enough to lay down widespread 1"-3" totals. Expect slick and potentially slow travel early Wednesday. Overnight lows will briefly drop into the upper teens, then climb back into the 20s by Wednesday morning. 

Scattered light flurries/snow showers continue Monday evening

 

We continue to see scattered snow showers and flurries fly across the skies here in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin thanks to an upper-level disturbance passing down the western Great Lakes. While this won't amount to much in the snowfall department, it will cause visibility to fall within the narrow, but at times intense, snow bands. Any additional accumulations from these are expected to remain minor, but hazardous travel will be likely through early Tuesday.

On top of the light snow we have coming down, winds are still gusty from time to time from the northwest. This has led to continued blowing and drifting snow, causing snow to blow back over roads and ice over.

Northwest winds will remain gusty around 20 mph through the night and into early Tuesday morning, so icy and slick conditions are likely to continue at least for some of the morning commute.

Winter Weather Advisory replaces Blizzard Warning, Hazardous travel still expected

 

UPDATE: The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until Midnight for all of our northern Illinois counties.  Blowing snow will reduce visibility down under a mile in many locations, especially the open and rural areas.  Snow covered and slippery road conditions will persist through the night, and most likely into Tuesday morning.

PREVIOUS UPDATE: A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for most of southern Wisconsin, with the exception of Walworth County where the Blizzard Warning is still in place, and for northern Illinois until 4pm for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties in northwest Illinois, as well as for Rock and Green counties in southern Wisconsin. It is in effect until 7pm for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb and McHenry counties. This replaces the Blizzard Warning that had been in effect for the viewing area.

While most of the accumulating snowfall is done there are still some snow showers falling over portions of southern Wisconsin and northeast Illinois early Monday afternoon. Only minor accumulations are expected from that.

Northwest winds will continue to gust from time to time between 30-40 mph and this combined with the freshly fallen snow will keep blowing and drifting snow a concern through the evening. This will be especially true in the open and rural areas where near ground blizzard/whiteout conditions can be expected. On some of the main interstates and highways the snow has melted, but it is still wet and slushy. And in some open areas there is still blowing snow, at some points covering either one or both of the lanes. You are still going to want to remain cautious throughout the day as slick and, in some areas hazardous, travel remains a concern. Remain alert for quickly changing road conditions through the evening commute.

On roads that are still snow/ice covered they will remain slick through the night and into Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the single digits tonight and wind chills fall below zero.