Cloud cover has been in an abundance Wednesday afternoon leaving temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s, slightly cooler than highs the last few days.
Clouds will stick around through most of the evening as temperature are slow to fall. In fact, there wasn't much movement in the numbers throughout the day, starting out at 49 degrees this morning and only warming to 54 degrees this afternoon. Skies are beginning to clear to the west near the Mississippi River, but for most we'll continue with a mostly cloudy sky. Overnight lows will fall on either side of 40 degrees.
Drier air Thursday should help get rid of the cloud cover leaving us with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 50s. Under mostly clear skies Thursday night lows will fall into the 30s with patchy fog possible early Friday.
November has given the rainfall department some hope as the Rockford Airport observed measurable precipitation the last 3 days.
Rain opportunities take a chill pill so to speak as an area of high pressure takes hold of our atmosphere. The dry air associated with it will take it's time reaching the Stateline, leaving a bit of cloudiness in our skies to start of our Wednesday.
Forecast models show clouds breaking apart around the midday hours, with more sunshine making an appearance towards the evening commute. Temperature-wise, afternoon highs will end up right at early-November standards, in the low 50s. Clouds will continue to clear out overnight, allowing temperatures to further fall into the upper 30s. Along with the clearing, patchy fog will be a possibility. Something to keep in mind if you are planning to travel during the early-day commute.
The remaining days of the work week will feature a good amount of sunshine, mixed at times with fair-weather cumulus clouds. Temperatures will trend upward, landing in the upper 50s.
At the same time, a low will become detached from the main upper-level flow, left spiraling over the southwest U.S. Forecast models show this low being picked up by the jet stream, lifting it into the Midwest early Saturday. Moisture out of ahead of this low will result in our next chance for showers beginning late Saturday, with the best chances filtering in Saturday night into the early stages of Sunday. Afternoon highs will
reach the middle 60s on Saturday, then upper 50s Sunday.
A line of scattered rain showers continues to move across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this evening, weakening quite a bit as they progress to the east. These showers are forming ahead of a cold front that'll sweep through the Stateline later tonight.
The heaviest rain stayed to our southeast Monday night/Tuesday morning where an inch to two inches was recorded. The showers moving in this evening will remain under a quarter of an inch. Over the last three days Rockford has recorded 0.86 inches of rainfall, which is more than what the entire month of October accumulated. The wetter than normal pattern does appear to stick around for the next week or two as outlooks highlight a slightly higher probability for above average precipitation.
Temperatures held fairly steady in the 60s through much of the afternoon but will slowly drop into the mid-40s behind the front. Despite high pressure moving in cloud cover will remain in abundance through the night and for the start of Wednesday, gradually clearing through the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the mid-50s.
With some of the residual moisture lingering both Wednesday and Thursday night areas of fog will be possible with temperatures remaining fairly seasonable for this time of year, in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Wanna know how dry October was? As of 6AM, Rockford's rainfall total sits at .13". This puts our 3-day total above .80", which is more rain than the entire month of October. Whether you're heading to the polls this morning or this afternoon, keep the umbrella close by.
A spotty shower or two remains possible ahead of a more organized round of showers this afternoon. An embedded non-severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Winds are also going to be a big part of our election day forecast, ramping up to 35-40 mph ahead of the incoming cold front. This will leave afternoon highs in the upper 60s. All in all, I do think we'll see an additional .25" of rain or less.
Behind this evening's frontal passage, we'll see a slow decrease in cloud cover, leaving skies partly cloudy by Wednesday morning. Temperatures take a big hit, falling into the low 40s.
Partly cloudy skies remain in place Wednesday and Thursday as a weak area of high pressure sits close by. Afternoon highs will be close to early-November standards, in the mid to upper 50s. Forecast models show our next chance for rain arriving late Saturday with chances lingering into Sunday.
It's been a rather warm and somewhat humid early November day as temperatures warmed into the mid and upper 60s, with dew points in the 60s as well. This has made it feel more like early spring rather than mid-fall. With the cloud cover and incoming rain showers tonight overnight lows won't drop much, remaining in the low 60s through Tuesday morning.
A current scan of radar shows some drizzle and light showers lingering across the Stateline, but more widespread rain developing further southwest. These showers and thunderstorms are along the leading edge of higher moisture that is expected to move in late Monday night.
Ongoing severe thunderstorms across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas will continue through the evening as low pressure slowly lifts northeast. As it does, it'll bring a slight increase in instability into southern and central Illinois where isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight (Monday night). Increasing low level jet winds will be responsible for the storm threat through the night. But those same winds will also help transport an incredible amount of moisture northward into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
This will likely lead to rainfall totals nearing an inch for most across the region but totals higher than that are possible as a heavy band of rain is expected to develop. Where exactly that band sets up is still in question and depends on how things line up in the atmosphere later tonight, but within this band rainfall totals in excess of 2-3 inches are possible over a few hours. Localized flooding is possible, especially in poor drainage and low-lying areas.
Most of the heavier rain will done mid-morning Tuesday, with scattered showers expected into the afternoon. A few isolated severe storms are possible in Wisconsin as low pressure moves through, as well as across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.
Widespread rain showers passing through ahead of this morning's commute will gradually come to an end before sunrise.
This will give us a break, leaving the chance for spotty showers for the remainder of the day. With that being said, keep the umbrella close by. At the same time, winds will increase out of the south-southwest, gusting up to 30 mph. These winds will transport warm moist air, allowing
highs to reach the upper 60s even with cloud cover overhead.
From there, forecast models show another shot at widespread/heavy rain sliding through the region overnight into Tuesday. Though the potential for severe storms is low, a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms are possible.
Totals will range from 1"-2", with higher totals being observed to our south and east. In a similar fashion to today, widespread rain will turn more scattered and spotty for Tuesday afternoon.
Flooding shouldn't be a concern considering how spare our rain chance have been but also how low river levels are. The only factor that will aid in localized flooding is the amount of leaves that have fallen over the past few weeks. Winds will become quite windy ahead of the incoming cold front, gusting up to 30 to 40 mph both tonight and Tuesday afternoon.
This will keep highs in the upper 60s for one more day before we cool down for Wednesday. Not only do we cool down, we quiet down as high pressure sinks down from the northwest. This will keep our weather pattern quiet through Friday, with afternoon highs climbing into the low 60s.
It's been a wet Sunday in the Stateline, with finally a period of meaningful rain to try and pull us out of the drought we are in. Round 1 of the rain is lifting North into Wisconsin this evening, with a short break in the steady showers for much of the evening and night. Widespread steady rain returns early Monday morning.
Already some spots West of I-39 have seen over 0.5" of rain, as the best moisture remained West of Rockford through the morning hours along the first wave of rain. More rain is on the way to fill in some of those gaps East of I-39.
We have a few more windows of rain on the way. Following the short break Sunday evening, steady rain will return Monday morning. Another drop in coverage will return scattered showers for the afternoon, leading to many dry daytime hours Monday. Monday night into Tuesday will be the main focus for any heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.
The next wave of steady rain arrives late tonight/early Monday morning with a rumble or two of thunder possible within this window. Rainfall coverage drops during the afternoon, but high amounts of moisture will keep cloud cover thick and spotty showers around. Any breaks in the clouds may bring a little bit of instability, or storm energy, ahead of the next round Monday night.
Monday into Tuesday will be the main focus for the heaviest rain and a few storms. If even small amounts of instability develop from any peeks of sunshine Monday afternoon, some embedded storms during this window could become strong to severe. Confidence on this is very low at this time, but given the strong dynamics aloft, it wouldn't take much energy to produce an isolated strong storm. Rainfall becomes scattered again into Tuesday as the trailing cold front approaches. Once the front passes Tuesday evening, rain will come to an end. Temperatures will remain in the 60s throughout almost all of the time the rain is falling, but will drop into the low 40s overnight Tuesday behind the cold front.
All told, some locations could see an additional 1-3" of rainfall, especially across North Central and Northeastern Illinois into Southeastern Wisconsin. The heaviest axis of rain may only be a few counties wide Monday night, so the predictability of where the most rain will fall is low at this time. For now, the highest chance of this will be along a line from Sterling, IL up into Walworth County, WI. If the majority of this rain falls within the Monday night-Tuesday morning window, there could be a risk for flooding concerns, primarily in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
