Mild pattern brings unseasonable warmth through the week of Christmas

 Temperatures will hold in the single digits for some through midnight, but increasing cloud cover will rise temperatures back into the teens by the early morning hours tomorrow. Tomorrow's high is closer to the low 30s by the afternoon.

The next round of precipitation could bring a period of freezing drizzle early Monday morning before temperatures warm enough for liquid rain. Be cautious of any slick spots that may develop, especially given pavement temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than the air temperatures!

Much milder weather is then set to follow over the next few days leading into Christmas, especially with our overnight lows. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights will only drop into the upper 20s and near 30°. This will limit how much re-freezing of the snow we see at night, only increasing how much melts over the coming days.

The milder pattern will also set the stage for a wetter one, starting Christmas Eve. Periods of rain showers may be possible almost every day from there until next weekend, with some pockets of steady rain possible. It won't be raining the entire time, but it will be a gloomy and dreary stretch with on and off rain showers.

Warming trend moving into Christmas

 With Christmas looming in everyone's minds the forecast for the holiday can often be a make-or-break scenario depending on activities and travel. After a few days of consistent snowfall, we'll see temperatures drop through the early part of the weekend but those will quickly increase as we approach the early week and the days leading up to Christmas.

Through the weekend temperatures will continue to hover around the teens overnight but by Sunday an upper-level disturbance from our north will slide south shifting winds southerly and thus helping temperatures begin to slowly increase as we approach Monday. With multiple systems sliding through the early week moisture will be present which will allow for a few instances of both freezing rain and snow which will ultimately impact our most recent snowfall.

As of now, the Climate Prediction Center is now expecting less than a 50% chance that we'll be experiencing a White Christmas this year due to both rain chances and increasing temperatures leading up to Christmas. This is pretty unfortunate as consistent snowfall this week seems to be all for not as any snow on the ground is expected to melt during the beginning part of the week.

On Christmas day, another one of the previously mentioned upper-level disturbances will bring strong southerly low-level flow increasing both our temperatures and moisture content. With those parameters increasing, forcing for the moisture will also be present which may be enough to force rain showers across the state line on Wednesday as well as temperatures well into the upper 30's.

This warming trend will begin Sunday as we won't quite get above freezing but with above freezing temperatures and rain chances the next few days, that's when we'll see most of the snowfall starting to melt. By Wednesday though we'll be back up into the upper 30's as Christmas gets going. Even after that then fall like temperatures will actually return as temperatures look to shoot up into the 40's through the later parts of the week!
 

Holiday travel forecast leading up to Christmas

 Following our fresh snowfall from Thursday into Friday morning, a cooler air mass will settle in through the weekend. Starting with Friday night, overnight lows will dip into the teens and near single digits for some. Be cautious of any re-freezing of untreated surfaces through Saturday morning. The afternoon will be warmer, but highs only reach the low 20s under a partly cloudy sky. Sunday will be milder with highs in the low 30s, but our next weather system could follow into the night.

High pressure dominates the forecast through the weekend, so optimal travel conditions across the region can be expected Saturday and much of Sunday. But Sunday night, our next system will be moving in from the West.

The next weather system will arrive Sunday night into Monday morning. Locally, a few rain showers with a small chance for some freezing rain will be possible during this time. Further North, another round of accumulating snow could occur from Wisconsin into Michigan and further East. Temperatures Monday will be in the upper 30s locally.

Another period of dry weather across the region for much of Monday night-Tuesday, but the next system could bring periods of steady rain starting late Christmas Eve. These could last even into Christmas Day.

The combination of any rain we see along with milder air is likely to melt most if not all of this snow just before Christmas. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 30s starting Monday, with overnight lows not far from the freezing mark. Any steady rain we see will only increase that melting right before Christmas. The "White Christmas" chances looking lower and lower by the day.

Travel impacts likely during Friday morning's commute

A wave of steady snow wrapping around the departing low has made it's way into northern Illinois prior to the morning commute. 

With temperatures sitting below freezing, it's likely that roads will be slick or snow-covered. Not only will you have to deal with that, winds have picked up a bit, which along with the snow showers has caused visibility to drop. Plan on giving yourself extra time as well as using caution while traveling. 

The good news is, snow won't last long. In fact, we are seeing the edge of the precipitation now make it's way into southern Wisconsin as of 5:30AM. Snow will wrap up before mid-morning, leaving us mostly cloudy, chilly and breezy. Temperatures will peak in the upper 20s early this afternoon, then fall into the mid to low 20s by the evening commute. 

 

Astronomical winter begins Saturday, and boy will it feel like winter. Colder air filtering in behind today's snow-maker will leave tonight's lows in the low teens and highs Saturday in the low 20s. 

On the plus side, winds will be much lighter and Saturday features the return of that beautiful gaseous orb in the sky (the sun). Sunday will also be dry, though cloud cover will slowly gather up as our next storm system begins to take shape. 

This system will arrive Monday, bringing with it warmer temperatures but also a chance for a rain/snow mix. Forecast models this morning have come in with a more northerly jump in the track, leaving afternoon highs in the upper 30s. That's why I do think most of what falls Monday will be in the form of rain. Precipitation chances drop from there, leaving only a slight chance for rain Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Afternoon highs will remain above freezing, landing in the upper 30s.

Early look at the Stateline's Christmas weather forecast

 Will it be a white Christmas in the Stateline this year? A white Christmas is officially when there is 1" or more of snow depth Christmas morning. Historically, Rockford has a slightly less than 50/50 shot of a white Christmas, only meeting those criteria 45% of the time. But we have seen decent snowfalls, including more than 3" of snow between Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Over this weekend, we will continue to see cooler weather stick around with highs well below freezing and overnight lows in the teens for a few days under high pressure. This chill will help to keep some of the snow around at least through the weekend.

But the overall pattern will flip into early next week and beyond. There is a 90-100% probability to see above average temperatures between the 25th and 29th of December. This would indicate far more 40s and 50s than 20s and 30s like is average for this time of year. Unfortunately, that means the snow we have in place now may not remain too much longer. But will it be 1" on Christmas morning? Possibly, but no guarantee. Forecast high temperatures are currently between 36-39° from Monday to Thursday next week, so some melting of the snow can be expected.

Christmas Day is unlikely to feature fresh-falling snow showers, with a higher chance for rain than snow. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s during this time.

Impactful snow returns Thursday evening into Friday morning

The snow from Wednesday's quick-moving clipper system took a small bite out of our monthly deficit, leaving our snow total at 2.2".

Disturbance #2, which at the the moment is bringing scattered heavy snow to northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin, will bring us a second opportunity for accumulating snow. Thursday starts off with dry but cloudy conditions, though a few flurries cannot be ruled out.  

Initially, areas in southern Wisconsin will be the first to witness snowflakes, followed by our locales in northern Illinois as the afternoon progresses. Steady snow this evening will heighten travel impacts, so plan on giving yourself extra travel time and take it slow getting to where you need to be.

Forecast models then show a brief break in the snow moving in this evening into early tonight, though snow will ramp up once again as we approach Friday morning's commute. In a similar fashion to Thursday evening, travel with caution Friday morning.

 

 

Snow looks to taper off before the noon hour, leaving those close to the Illinois/Wisconsin border with 1"-2" with less down by Interstate 88. North of Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties in southern Wisconsin, anywhere from 2" to 5" may fall. 

Cold winds behind today's snow-maker will leave afternoon highs near the 30° mark for Friday, then in the 20s for Saturday and Sunday. Coldest temperatures will be felt Saturday where highs will fail to reach the mid 20s.

Snow totals from Tuesday night and when the next chance for snow returns

 

The band of heavy snow that moved in late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning was a bit of an overproducer, yielding between 1-3 inches of snow across northern Illinois. Rockford's airport recorded 1.9 inches, with 3 inches reported in Pearl City, IL and 2 inches in Freeport, IL.

A break from the wintry weather can be expected Wednesday evening as cloud cover holds thick throughout the night. Temperatures will hold steady throughout the evening, dipping into the low 20s early Thursday.

Our next storm system located in the Pacific Northwest will move through the Rockies tonight, and then into the Plains and Midwest Thursday. As it does, winds will turn to the south Thursday ushering in a slightly warmer air mass. Just how warm will be key in what type of precipitation, and how much, we see Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures during the afternoon will warm into the low 30s once again.

The track of the low is forecast to move right over northern Illinois, centered along the Highway 20 corridor. This type of track favors areas north of the low to receive several inches of snow which is why there are Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in place stretching from Wisconsin back northwest into the Plains. 

South of the low snow totals will be less with a slightly higher chance for a little more of a wintry mix to occur. There continues to be some wobbles in the overall forecast model guidance with regards to the track of the low, but the forecast Wednesday evening calls for snow totals of 1-2 inches from near the state line down through Highway 72. North of the state line totals will be higher and locations south of I-88 may see more of a wintry mix during the late afternoon and evening. 

Following a lull in the precipitation Thursday evening snow showers will ramp back up early Friday as cold air wraps in behind the low. North winds will also increase, gusting 30-35 mph throughout the day Friday. The snow Friday morning will have an impact on the morning commute, so be prepared for slick and snowy conditions during the morning.