Drought conditions worsen across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin

 

The latest drought monitor from the National Mitigation Center shows severe drought conditions developing over a portion of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. As of Tuesday, October 15th nearly 70 percent of the state of Illinois was considered 'abnormally dry' with a little over 37 percent considered in 'moderate' drought, and now just over three percent at 'severe' drought levels. In all but the dry category, this has been an increase from last week to this week.

In Wisconsin, drought conditions have worsened throughout the state with 100 percent considered 'abnormally dry', nearly 64 percent in 'moderate' drought, and 20 percent considered in 'severe' drought conditions.

Through October 17th the Rockford Airport has only received a 'trace' of rainfall, which isn't considered to be any sort of measurable rain as it's under 0.01 inches. This puts the first two and a half weeks of October as the second driest month-to-date, followed only by October 1934 (same time period) with no rain.

Dry conditions will remain through the weekend and most likely into next week with high pressure stretching across the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. There are some signals in models that point to a possible pattern change by the end of the month, but with that being nearly two weeks away it isn't anything to get too excited about yet.

Warm and dry through the weekend ahead

 It was a downright cold morning in the Stateline Thursday, as morning lows were in the 20s and low 30s across the board. We warmed very nicely for the afternoon, reaching highs in the mid-60s. Warmer trends continue into Friday, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s underneath continued sunshine and breezy South winds. Overnight lows will also begin to climb, only dropping to the upper 30s through Friday night.

We will also maintain a dry forecast through the weekend as blocking high pressure remains to our Southeast. This funnels moisture up and over the high pressure, keeping us dry and warm through the weekend.

Temperatures remain warm into the weekend, with highs reaching even into the low and mid-70s! Afternoon highs will be well above average, by a margin of 10-15 degrees. Overnight lows will also be above normal, but by a much slimmer margin given the dry air in place.

Our lone chance for any rainfall comes with a weak system passing through in the Monday night-Tuesday morning window. Rainfall does not look impressive at all if we were to see any. Most locations may not see any rain and those who do likely will receive less than 0.1". A brief cool down arrives Wednesday and Thursday, but the following weekend returns to well above average temperatures again.

Thursday morning weather update

Wednesday marked the 3rd consecutive day where afternoon highs at the Rockford Airport fell short of the 60-degree mark. We haven't encountered such a stretch since late-April.

This cold spell lingers into our Thursday, hence the freeze warning that is currently in place. However, a change in wind will help temperatures climb back above-average prior to the weekend. 

Dress warmly before heading out as morning lows have fallen into the upper 20s and low 30s. An area of high pressure locked over the Tennessee Valley will keep skies sun-filled from sunrise to sunset. That, along with increasing wind out of the southwest, will allow for a steady increase in temperatures. 

Expect afternoon highs in the upper 60s today. That warmer wind will also play a role into why we won't be as chilly Friday morning. Under mostly clear skies, lows will end up closer to the 40-degree mark.

A very similar day lies ahead for Friday. Highs will once again land in the upper 60s. Though the ridge of high pressure aloft breaks down, conditions remain dry and warm over the weekend. Partly cloudy skies can be expected both Saturday and Sunday, with highs landing in the low to mid 70s.

 

Gradual warming trend into the weekend

 It was a chilly Wednesday morning in the Stateline as many woke up to widespread frost and temperatures below freezing. Rockford fell to an overnight low of 31°, its coldest temperature since April 25th!

It will be another cold night in the Stateline with light winds and clear skies. Again, many spots could drop below freezing, hence a freeze warning that is in effect for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb counties from 1AM-9AM Thursday morning. Other locations are not included in the warning, as many spots there saw lows reach into the 20s, effectively reaching that hard freeze mark. Nonetheless, everyone in the Stateline should expect lows below freezing tonight.

Winds remain light through Thursday morning, promoting the frost potential overnight. But wind speed and gusts will increase through the afternoon as high pressure moves further away. This will bring a Southerly direction to the wind, aiding in our warmth over the coming days.

Thursday will feature high temperatures in the mid-60s with continued sunshine and dry weather. Though there will be a cool breeze from the South, it will be noticeably warmer than the previous few days.

High pressure brings breezy winds from the South over the next couple of days, but it also keeps us dry in the short term. We see limited moisture until at least the weekend, but most of the moisture we do see will flow up and over the high pressure, staying to the North. This keeps rain chances limited, but we will see a bit more cloud cover into the weekend.

The warming trends continue into the weekend as temperatures rise into the upper 60s Friday and mid-70s Saturday and Sunday. We will see similar sunshine on Friday but a bit more cloud cover rolls in by Saturday and Sunday. Our next chance for rain doesn't arrive until early next week.

Sun-filled skies Wednesday afternoon

 Widspread frost developed early Wednesday morning as temperatures fell into the 20s for most. But under sun-filled skies afternoon readings have warmed into the low to 50s, still a bit below the average high of 62 degrees.

Temperatures will once again fall into the upper 20s and low 30s with widespread frost expected into Thursday morning. A Freeze Warning has been issued for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb counties beginning late Wednesday night, lasting through Thursday morning. Sunshine will continue to fill the skies through the end of the week as high pressure sits to our south and east.

This will allow surface winds to turn more to the southwest bringing temperatures into the 60s both Thursday and Friday. Wind speeds, however, will increase with a tightening pressure gradient to the west allowing winds to gust as high as 25 mph during the afternoon. The gusty southwest winds could lead to an elevated field fire risk for some, especially over northwest Illinois. Those breezy southwest winds will continue into Friday. Dry conditions can still be expected straight through the weekend.  

Wednesday morning weather update

This taste of November is in full swing, leaving morning temperatures below the freezing mark of 32°. As a reminder, a Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9AM. If you left your car outside and away from a heat source, you may want to give it a few minutes to warm up.

 

 

Today's sunrise will occur at 7:11AM and once the sun is above the horizon, we'll see plenty of it in the hours that follow. Despite having sun-filled skies in place, today's chilly northwesterly wind will limit afternoon highs to the upper 50s. Frost is on the table once again overnight as temperatures overnight fall to or just below the 32° mark. No frost advisories have been issued at this time.

 

Winds will then take a turn to the south-southwest, allowing temperatures to climb prior to the weekend. Highs on Thursday will return to the upper 60s, then to the low 70s for Friday. With high pressure in place, sunshine is a good bet for both day.

 

 

Tuesday afternoon weather update

 

North winds have been rather blustery throughout most of the afternoon, gusting around 30 mph from time to time. Winds will ease some as high pressure moves into Missouri overnight, keeping a light breeze from the northwest through Wednesday morning. This will allow overnight lows to fall into the upper 20s/low 30s under mostly clear skies.

Temperatures have been rather chilly throughout most of the afternoon with highs warming only into the low 50s. And while Wednesday will be another cool afternoon, temperatures will quickly warm into the upper 60s Thursday, and then 70s by the weekend.

The abrupt change in the weather pattern can be traced back to a strong ridge of high pressure moving into western Canada the last few days, dislodging the colder air to the north. Strong low pressure and a series of cold fronts last weekend were able to pull that colder air mass south.

As the ridge breaks down the next few days it'll begin to shift east. This will allow temperatures not only aloft to warm, but also down near the surface due to sinking air. High temperatures by the weekend are expected to warm through the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows back into the 40s. 

Long-range outlooks continue to hold on to the warm pattern through most of the month with a higher probability for above average temperatures. The average high through the end of the month drops into the mid-50s.