Latest on the severe potential Wednesday

 

We are about to settle into what could be an active weather pattern over the next 24-30 hours, so let's dive in:

Rest of this afternoon/evening:

Cloudy skies will remain in place through the evening as a few light sprinkles/scattered rain showers develop. Radar shows the light rain overhead, but very little of that is reaching the ground thanks to some low-level dry air. Along and north of the state line there will be some light snow showers mixing in. Impacts should remain minimal with any snow showers that do develop.

Overnight:

The precipitation this evening is the result of an elevated warm front moving into the Midwest. The surface warm front and low-pressure system will move closer to the region through the overnight. This will result in scattered thunderstorms beginning to develop after 2am/3am. These storms will remain elevated, posing a risk for hail. Isolated hail stones reaching one inch in diameter could occur, so an isolated severe threat remains through sunrise Wednesday.

Wednesday morning:

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Heavy rainfall will make the morning commute slow, so be sure to plan accordingly. There is still the risk for hail, but also a gusty wind threat or two.

A 'marginal' risk for an isolated severe storm or two is in place area wide for late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon:

The focus will then shift to the storm potential during the afternoon. And this is where it gets a little complicated....

The severe risk for Wednesday afternoon remains conditional on what happens Wednesday morning, and unfortunately that leads to some bigger questions. So, here's the breakdown...

Our window for afternoon storms will range from about 12pm/1pm - 7pm/8pm. Even if the morning storm activity is a bit slower to leave, the strong upper-level dynamics of this storm system may be able to overcome some of that, allowing to a quick recovery and build up of instability. If that does occur - our risks with storms Wednesday afternoon would be damaging winds and large hail. However, the tornado risk is there (and could grow) if conditions are just right.

However, there is also the chance that we still see storms redevelop but on the weaker side which would give us less of a severe potential.

I'll be honest - if everything does come together the risk for big thunderstorms is there. And that's why I'm kind of hitting on this potential a little more. I want to make sure you are aware of that risk should you need to act. The storms will be moving at a very fast pace, which wouldn't allow for much time to react.

Wednesday late evening:

The cold front passes and we see drier conditions into the overnight.

So, here's our timeline:

Morning storm activity: 3am-late morning

Afternoon storm activity: 12pm/1pm - 7pm/8pm

Make sure you're checking in on the weather Wednesday morning with Meteorologist Joey Marino. Him and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will be in monitoring the storms during the morning. Be aware that afternoon storms could quickly develop Wednesday, and make sure you have a plan of action should you need it.