Severe Threat for Later Today

By definition, we had a GORGEOUS start to our Thursday. It was a bit chilly to start off as temperatures under mostly clear skies and light winds "bottomed out" into the low 50s. However, it would be a good idea to get any plans or activities done early today. This stretch of dry and tranquil weather will come to an end as afternoon thunderstorms could sweep through the Stateline.

After having a fall-like chill in the air yesterday, highs today will warm up around seasonable into the low 80s. We will have the breezy conditions stick around during the day as well. But this time, winds will be out of the southwest. Sustained winds today are likely to peak once again in the 15 to 20 MPH range, but wind gusts could be between 30 and 40 MPH. This is why our temperatures will be warmer, and also why we will see an increased amount of humidity during the second half of our Thursday. The higher dew points that are pulled into the region could help with the development of thunderstorms later today. It isn’t until after prime heating, which is typically around between noon and 4 P.M, that thunderstorm risks increase.

The Storm Prediction Center did upgrade the viewing area to a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather yesterday. They did keep the Stateline under the slight risk in this morning's outlook as well. Ahead of an approaching cold front, isolated to scattered storms will be possible, bringing the threat of damaging gusty winds and heavy rainfall. There is a threat for large hail and a brief tornado or two, but these two threats are going to be very isolated.

By 4 P.M, model guidance indicates a few spotty storms are likely to develop across far northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin. This broken line of storms will then track southeastward towards the Highway 20 corridor between 5 and 7 p.m. That is why it would be great to have the rain gear on hand as you head home later today and to take it slow during the evening commute.

Storm coverage should begin to decrease by 8-9 p.m. and the weather will quiet down going into the night tonight. Following the cold frontal passage, a drier and cooler air mass will settle into the region for Friday. Highs will drop back into the 70s bringing back that feeling of fall that we have gotten used to over the past few days. The cold front that moves through tonight will stall out and become a stationary boundary to our south, keeping rain chances going on Saturday. On top of the rainy start to the weekend, highs look to stay cool through the weekend before a warm up arrives for the start of the work week.